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Old 09-08-2012, 10:17 PM   #1
wesnilevirus's Avatar
Join Date: Feb 2011
Posts: 1,450
Default Fun with Math! UD Fleer Retro Style

So I wanted to get a rough idea for what my tipping point pricewise should be with respect to buying cases or selling the cases that I have coming on this product. The chart below did not copy well from my excel spreadsheet. The first column of numbers is the number of cards available for the card described, the second row is a rough guess of ebay sell value. I tended to underestimate so that any decrease in prices that will likely occur over the next few months can be factored in (somewhat). Feel free to critique this evaluation. This assumes that UD did not hold back any of the big cards for exchange purposes (i.e. no holding back a red bowman bryce harper #/5 like topps did). The number of cards for each insert was calculated by phdbeckett in another thread (although the sell sheets spell out the odds pretty clearly as well).

As you you can, the calculations only took into account the big cards (any jordan or lebron card, all the PMGs). This is SUPER ROUGH, and I didn't take into account any of the non-buyback jordan autos, lebron autos, etc. I also didn't take into account values for other players' non-PMG inserts or autos (including big ones like grant hill, larry johnson, bill russell).

So based on my calculations, a case (assuming 1500 cases were made) has an inherent value of around 900 dollars based on the cards listed below ALONE.

Jordan red 150 1200
Jordan blue 50 3000
Jordan green 10 10000
Lebron red 150 700
Lebron blue 50 1800
Lebron green 10 5000
jordan buybacks 23 5000
Jordan Fleer 1961/62 180 100
Lebron Fleer 1961/62 180 50
Jordan Golden touch 66 150
Lebron Golden touch 66 75
Cut above jordan 50 200
Cut above lebron 50 75
Noyz Boyz Jordan 50 200
Noyz Boyz Lebron 50 75
Competitive Advantage Jordan 62 150
Competitive Advantage Lebron 62 75
Metal Championship Jordan 133 150
Metal Championship Lebron 133 75
Ultra Court Masters Jordan 80 200
Ultra Court Masters Lebron 80 75
Ultra Stars Jordan 40 200
Ultra Stars Lebron 40 75
Flair Showcase Jordan 150 300
Flair Showcase Lebron 150 150
Big Men on Court Jordan 66 150
Big Men on Court Lebron 66 75
Random PMG Green 380 300
Random PMG Blue
(not lebron or Jordan) 1900 50
Random PMG Red
(not lebron or Jordan) 5700 20

total 1341575
Average value per case (/1500) 894.3833333

Last edited by wesnilevirus; 09-08-2012 at 10:19 PM.
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Old 09-08-2012, 10:23 PM   #2
JK8283's Avatar
Join Date: Oct 2011
Location: San Francisco, CA
Posts: 1,220

You might squeeze out another $200-300 based on some other players like Grant Hill, DRob, Hakeem, etc... Good enough to make this close to an "even value" proposition if you got the wax at early prices and decided to bust. Obviously, at current prices, even with the huge MJ/LBJ values, the profit maximizing play is to sell and not bust.
Collecting Jordan & DRose
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