read this?

[wee111]

what do you guys think of this article?

Supply, demand, and the question of scarcity Wax Heaven

(hat tip to wax heaven, this is not mine.)

[ballcaps21]

I guess I agree with the logic to a certain point but I could care less about the value of a 1/1 card if I'm buying it for my own PC. If I like or really want it, I'll pay for it simple as that.

[wolf324au]

Originally Posted by ballcaps21

I guess I agree with the logic to a certain point but I could care less about the value of a 1/1 card if I'm buying it for my own PC. If I like or really want it, I'll pay for it simple as that.

Agreed...also, he fuses the idea of a 1/1 together with autographs too extensively.

[alexlazarevich]

I agree with him philosophically 100%.

But in the real world, he doesn't know what's going to happen with the price of 1/1's. No one knows for certain.

All we know is right now some people shell out cash for 1/1's, that's a fact. The card manufacturers know this, that's why poduct is overloaded with it. Some annoying Ebay sellers know it too, that's why they claim a card stamped xx/50 is a 1/1.

I believe the fundamental driver of cost in the card market is desire - if people want it, they will go after it and go into dept in order to get it. Once the desire for 1/1's cools off, then the prices will go down.

</tirade>For my own personal collection, I don't shell out mucho bucks for 1/1's, I pretty much avoid them. I don't care much about patches either. I do like sigs that I pull out of a box. But to me the most satisfying thing about card collecting is buying several boxes, building multiple sets, and having 5-10 copies of each vet and at least a few copies of each and every rookie in the set. Shortprinted rookies annoy me - it is so obviously a manufacturer trick to get me to buy more boxes. They are out to make money and that' one way to hook us. 2009 Bowman Draft NLF was the BEST set that I built recently. A non-millionare can actually buy several boxes, build multiple copies of the complete base set, and not go in dept, not go broke, in fact they will probably feel good about how little they spent to put together the set. Not only that, the cards seem to hold some value, and man they look good, clean and crisp. If anyone knows more sets like that, I'd love to hear about it.</tirade>

Alex

[DaClyde]

While I love my player collections, I don't even bother looking for 1/1s. I can't justify dropping loads of money on a card that is 95% identical to it's un-numbered base cousin. I think that's another aspect of this issue. If 1/1s were unique in design, and not usually just slight variations lost in a pile of other similar variations of the same card, they'd have a little more "value".

[KUHawk]

Originally Posted by DaClyde

While I love my player collections, I don't even bother looking for 1/1s. I can't justify dropping loads of money on a card that is 95% identical to it's un-numbered base cousin. I think that's another aspect of this issue. If 1/1s were unique in design, and not usually just slight variations lost in a pile of other similar variations of the same card, they'd have a little more "value".

Exactly right, adding a green/black/purple/magenta border to the same damned card does nothing for me. If it was a truly unique design I'm all for it and gladly would pay a premium.

[benshobbies]

I really think that the writer is missing the point all-together. He concentrates solely on supply, but does not factor in demand at all into his article. The reason why a Derek Jeter 1/1 goes for more than a Kevin Youkilis 1/1 is because as collectors we are rather passionate about our collecting. If we are both going for the "Derek Jeter Rainbow" than obviously there is going to be a bidding war that inflates the price. I have studied economics extensively in college, and one of the things I've found is that if people's hearts get stuck on having one rare card (Even if it isn't a 1/1) than they are going to fight tooth and nail to get it. Once people's heart and desire for cards comes into play, all sense of economics goes to heck.

So Supply is nothing without demand, and as long as there is demand in the hobby for 1/1's prices are going to reflect the rarity of the card, even if the supply is Numerous. Look at 2008 Moments & Milestones baseball product. They overproduced cards #'D <20 and a lot of them are holding value today.

[kajshack]

Demand is what ever people are willing to pay at the time. Starting an auction at .99 cents and letting it run for a week is the best indicator of demand. 1/1's have a high elasticity because collectors want them, regardless of how many 1/1 variations of a particular player are in existence.

His entire article is written with the premise that the majority of collectors are speculators who are only interested in making an investment for the future. Under this premise, he does make a good point. But I don't think people are buying 1/1's speculating on future value. Rookie autos, yes, but not 1/1's. People buy 1/1's because they are cool or because they collect that particular player.

[weedyalan]

"For example, there are currently over just under fifty-five hundred different 1/1 cards available for sale on Ebay (yes, that’s not a typo…I said almost 5,500), "


So, "over just under," really?? Exactly, how much does that come to?

Try proofreading Wax Heaven.


While you are proofreading, try checking your facts.


Wilt Chamberlain and Johnny Unitas are deceased, or do you know something that the rest of the world doesn't know? Are they hiding somewhere with Elvis, Jimmy Hoffa, and Tupac?

[WaxHeaven]

Originally Posted by weedyalan

"For example, there are currently over just under fifty-five hundred different 1/1 cards available for sale on Ebay (yes, that’s not a typo…I said almost 5,500), "


So, "over just under," really?? Exactly, how much does that come to?

Try proofreading Wax Heaven.


While you are proofreading, try checking your facts.


Wilt Chamberlain and Johnny Unitas are deceased, or do you know something that the rest of the world doesn't know? Are they hiding somewhere with Elvis, Jimmy Hoffa, and Tupac?

Sorry.

[cardsin47]

There are Investment Grade 1/1’s ( true RC ), and there are a whole buncha manufacturer made up susbset 1/1’s, which have endless possibilities and can be made forever. The Article is apparently lumping these all together - but there is a HUGE distinction between true RC 1/1’s - let’s say a 2018 Soto Superfractor, and a 2021 Jeter 1/1 that comes out next month in a new set release called Short Stop Superstars ( hypothetical ).

However, to the Author’s credit, it is correct that you need to look past the 1/1 rarity, and actually look at the other attributes of the Card, to see if it’s likely to have a lasting demand and hold its value and then some ….

[WaxHeaven]

This is a VERY old article I rushed to write while I was supposed to be working.
I don't even want to click the link. I think the bigger point is that there were too many 1/1 cards in 2009. Imagine how many there are now as we near 2022?

[rogueriver]

1/1 cards today are easier to get than /1000 cards in the 1990s. They are everywhere. every Product has 30 1/1 of each player. Who cares if you got the red, the purple, black and gold versions of a 1/1 card they all look the same. Just my opinion

[eye4talent]

Originally Posted by WaxHeaven

This is a VERY old article I rushed to write while I was supposed to be working.
I don't even want to click the link. I think the bigger point is that there were too many 1/1 cards in 2009. Imagine how many there are now as we near 2022?

I won’t hold your feet to the fire then. I’ll just add to the general conversation…

Within the realm of 1/1’s, there are tiers.

There are the high-end rookie 1/1’s, yes. But even post-RC, a superstar’s seventh-year Topps Chrome superfractor is still a big deal. I would say this is largely because Topps Chrome, Bowman Chrome, Heritage Chrome, and other choice superfractors are deemed the prime 1/1’s, while an Archives 1/1 doesn’t open the pocketbooks in the same way. And to go a step further, a 2007 Topps Moments & Milestones 1/1 is really only a 1/1 in name only. Essentially, not all 1/1’s are equal, and the hobby has shaken that out since 1/1’s first caught on in the late ‘90s (I remember ‘97 Flair Showcase “masterpieces” being the beginning of the 1/1 era), and since superfractors first appeared in ‘05.

As for autographs, post-career autographs aren’t regarded the same as in-career autos, at least for modern players. It’s more nuanced when it comes to legends whose careers ended long before pack-inserted autograph cards were a thing.

As such, there is a finite amount of in-career autos that a player can sign. And while someone like Mike Trout signs every year and for multiple products, it’s not like he’s signing on the order of a 1st Bowman Chrome auto. So, there is still scarcity to a veteran player’s autograph inventory.


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[WaxHeaven]

Originally Posted by eye4talent

I won’t hold your feet to the fire then. I’ll just add to the general conversation…

Within the realm of 1/1’s, there are tiers.

There are the high-end rookie 1/1’s, yes. But even post-RC, a superstar’s seventh-year Topps Chrome superfractor is still a big deal. I would say this is largely because Topps Chrome, Bowman Chrome, Heritage Chrome, and other choice superfractors are deemed the prime 1/1’s, while an Archives 1/1 doesn’t open the pocketbooks in the same way. And to go a step further, a 2007 Topps Moments & Milestones 1/1 is really only a 1/1 in name only. Essentially, not all 1/1’s are equal, and the hobby has shaken that out since 1/1’s first caught on in the late ‘90s (I remember ‘97 Flair Showcase “masterpieces” being the beginning of the 1/1 era), and since superfractors first appeared in ‘05.

As for autographs, post-career autographs aren’t regarded the same as in-career autos, at least for modern players. It’s more nuanced when it comes to legends whose careers ended long before pack-inserted autograph cards were a thing.

As such, there is a finite amount of in-career autos that a player can sign. And while someone like Mike Trout signs every year and for multiple products, it’s not like he’s signing on the order of a 1st Bowman Chrome auto. So, there is still scarcity to a veteran player’s autograph inventory.


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Appreciate the lesson! The Hobby has passed me by a few times since 2009. It's good to be able to catch up.

[eye4talent]

Originally Posted by WaxHeaven

Appreciate the lesson! The Hobby has passed me by a few times since 2009. It's good to be able to catch up.

Not critiquing you at all. Unearthing this blog post just provided an opportunity to discuss something presently in relation to a perspective from 12 years ago.


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[WaxHeaven]

Originally Posted by eye4talent

Not critiquing you at all. Unearthing this blog post just provided an opportunity to discuss something presently in relation to a perspective from 12 years ago.


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No, I understand. I actually never really looked that deep into it (the tiers). I mostly obsess over 90s stuff. When it comes to modern, I do need a lot of refreshers. I appreciate you.

[Astros19]

I think the thing that strikes me as changing in our hobby is the dwindling number of set collectors/builders.
I used to build a lot of different sets throughout the year, but with prices soaring as much as they have I'm just priced out of doing it anymore.
I know 99% of the sets I put together from the 90's on aren't worth diddly, but the joy I received building them was enough to justify the money I spent.
Unfortunately, not anymore.

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[AnthonyCorona]

Originally Posted by kajshack

Demand is what ever people are willing to pay at the time. Starting an auction at .99 cents and letting it run for a week is the best indicator of demand. 1/1's have a high elasticity because collectors want them, regardless of how many 1/1 variations of a particular player are in existence.

His entire article is written with the premise that the majority of collectors are speculators who are only interested in making an investment for the future. Under this premise, he does make a good point. But I don't think people are buying 1/1's speculating on future value. Rookie autos, yes, but not 1/1's. People buy 1/1's because they are cool or because they collect that particular player.

100% agree with this. Not everyone is worried about future value. I bought an Alek Thomas pro debut 1/1 and probably overpaid what someone else would. Why? He’s in a Visalia jersey, thats the team he was on when we met him. I was able to complete the rainbow and couldn’t care less if I can sell for a profit in the future. Some people really collect for fun and not profit


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[johnwhite]

I totally agree! But I like the way, he presented his ideas. I wish I had such topics to write about, in order to present my opinion but I only get boring ones. For example, I had to write an ode which I knew a little about, but with the help of this article https://studybay.com/blog/how-to-write-an-ode/, I have managed to write it very quickly. However, I like such tasks as it sparks my creativity and it motivate me to continue writing.