Which of the following players do you think will make the HOF?

[mfw13]

So....choices are limited to players who are under 30 and have a minimum of one full year of service time.


Here's my list of reasonable candidates who meet those criteria:

Jose Altuve
Nolan Arenado
Mookie Betts
Kris Bryant
Madison Bumgarner
Carlos Correa
Paul Goldschmidt
Bryce Harper
Clayton Kershaw
Francisco Lindor
Manny Machado
Chris Sale
Corey Seager
Giancarlo Stanton
Mike Trout

My take....

Most likely: Trout, Harper, Stanton, Kershaw, Sale, Bumgarner

Highly likely: Altuve, Arenado, Betts, Seager, Machado, Bryant, Correa

Least likely: Goldschmidt (got too late of a start for a power-hitting 1B...only going to have about 200 HR by age 30), Lindor (has a chance as an Roberto Alomar/Barry Larkin type, but doesn't excel at any one thing), Machado (has never really broken out offensively, but could become the next Beltre).

What was really surprising to be when putting together this list is the complete absence of young starters (MadBum is the youngest at 27). Nobody has been able to stay healthy.

[texmcpherson]

Some of the guys it's really too early to predict, couple of seasons but who knows what the future will hold. Kershaw and Trout are by far the highest candidates as of today. This is going to turn into more/less who wants what players in.

My thoughts/hope:

Arenado
KB
Sale
Seager
Trout
Kershaw
Harper
Correa
MadBum
Altuve

[marl1220]

Originally Posted by texmcpherson

Some of the guys it's really too early to predict, couple of seasons but who knows what the future will hold. Kershaw and Trout are by far the highest candidates as of today. This is going to turn into more/less who wants what players in.

My thoughts/hope:

Arenado
KB
Sale
Seager
Trout
Kershaw
Harper
Correa
MadBum
Altuve

Kinda like your list. I'd probably add Goldschmidt.

[ThoseBackPages]

Aaron Judge

[texmcpherson]

Originally Posted by marl1220

Kinda like your list. I'd probably add Goldschmidt.

LOVE Goldy, the age just concerns me. I'll probably look at his stats and change my mind though.

[Ottomatic]

Hard to predict because a decline can really happen almost suddenly at any moment, whether related to injury or not.

I'll go with Kershaw, Harper, Lindor, Bryant, Seager, Sale, Correa, Machado and Trout.

Legitimately special group of players IMO.

[ThoseBackPages]

Originally Posted by texmcpherson

LOVE Goldy, the age just concerns me. I'll probably look at his stats and change my mind though.

even though he's 30, with players playing into their 40s now, he has a shot

[34JacktheRipper]

From OP's list, I say these guys will get in:

Harper
Bryant
Arenado
Correa
Stanton
Seager
Kershaw

Maybe on Sale and Altuve. Depends on when they decline, but I'd lean towards no rather than yes at this point.

[marl1220]

Originally Posted by texmcpherson

LOVE Goldy, the age just concerns me. I'll probably look at his stats and change my mind though.

I think he's waaaaay overlooked. One, he plays in Arizona. Two, his age. But he's only 29. 4-5 more years like the ones he's had and he's got to make it. That's IMO at least.

[griffan15]

Why isn't Posey a choice?

[marl1220]

Originally Posted by griffan15

Why isn't Posey a choice?

Must be he's just a "given."

[marl1220]

Originally Posted by marl1220

Must be he's just a "given."

Plus he's all ready 30.

[NeedChapmans]

Jose Altuve
Madison Bumgarner
Bryce Harper
Clayton Kershaw
Chris Sale
Corey Seager
Giancarlo Stanton
Mike Trout

This is where I am. Copied your list of probables, and deleted the ones I don't think will get there. That said, plenty of time to remove everyone from this list that isn't Kershaw, and plenty of time to add others.

But these 8 strike me as on a clear, easy path.

[unclemonkey]

I think they will have to reduce the historic qualifiers for pitching. None of these guys will approach 300 wins.

Goldschmidt has a shot. He needs a Yanks/Red Sox trade to accelerate

Others... Miguel Cabrera, Freddie Freeman, Chris Davis, Starlin Castro, Robinson Cano

[mfw13]

Originally Posted by griffan15

Why isn't Posey a choice?

Already 30.....but a "very likely" in my book.

[mfw13]

Originally Posted by unclemonkey

I think they will have to reduce the historic qualifiers for pitching. None of these guys will approach 300 wins.

Goldschmidt has a shot. He needs a Yanks/Red Sox trade to accelerate

Others... Miguel Cabrera, Freddie Freeman, Chris Davis, Starlin Castro, Robinson Cano

Criteria is under 30......and Freeman and Davis have very little shot.....bloomed too late.

[mfw13]

Originally Posted by marl1220

I think he's waaaaay overlooked. One, he plays in Arizona. Two, his age. But he's only 29. 4-5 more years like the ones he's had and he's got to make it. That's IMO at least.

But he's 29 with only 168 career HR, which doesn't cut it for a 1B.

Even if he averages 30 HR a year for the next ten years, he's still going to be short of Fred McGriff's HR total.

That's the problem with guys who go to college....they don't really start being productive major leaguers until they're 25 or so.

[ThoseBackPages]

Buster Posse is already a lock

[mfw13]

@34JacktheRipper, @NeedChapmans:

I'm curious why you don't think MadBum will make it.

To me, he's actually one of the strongest cases for simple mathematical reasons....

Keep in mind that he reached the majors at age 19, pitched a WS shutout at age 20, and earned his first Cy Young votes at age 21.

Likewise, he's never had anything vaguely resembling an arm injury. World Series heroics aside, he'll have 100+ wins and 1500 strikeouts by the end of his age 27 season. That means he's likely to hit 200 wins and 3000 strikeouts before he turns age 35, and have a decent shot at 250 wins/4000 strikeouts.

[ThoseBackPages]

Mad Bum gets in. He's popular

[Bhenry4]

Was Chris Davis just mentioned in this thread?

Crazy the power of recency bias. Stanton was not being mentioned among the shoe ins until this year, heck probably the past month. Still think that it's a bit early on Seager. I'd be surprised if Manny doesn't make it barring injuries.

[Hdpooh34]

Cody Bellinger

[Giancarlo27]

Jose Altuve YES, on pace for 3000 hits
Nolan Arenado NO, Coors Field effect is very pronounced on hofer chances
Mookie Betts PROBABLY NOT, but too early to tell
Kris Bryant PROBABLY NOT, too old to hit the major milestones most likely but anything is possible considering he anchored the first Cubs title in 100 years
Madison Bumgarner YES if he stays healthy
Carlos Correa YES if he stays healthy although too early to tell really
Paul Goldschmidt PROBABLY NOT due to age and projections to career totals
Bryce Harper YES if he stays healthy. Will likely hit 500 HRS
Clayton Kershaw YES, will likely go down as a top 5 pitcher of all time
Francisco Lindor MAYBE, way too early to tell
Manny Machado NO
Chris Sale MAYBE
Corey Seager ON THE PATH but too early to say
Giancarlo Stanton YES, will finish with 600 plus homers
Mike Trout YES, will likely go down as a top 3 player of all time

[ThoseBackPages]

Originally Posted by Giancarlo27

Giancarlo Stanton YES, will finish with 600 plus homers

[Giancarlo27]

Originally Posted by ThoseBackPages

The numbers back me up. He is 27 and already has 250. A player's prime is generally agreed to be the ages 27-32 seasons in baseball. at 35 per year for the next 5 seasons which is a conservative estimate he would have 425 homers at age 32. I would say 500 is a near guarantee barring a career ending injury, 600 is likely, and 700 is very unlikely but theoretically possible.