Is there a skill to prospecting??

[Yaga]

Fairly new to baseball collecting and I think I'm starting to get it a bit. It's definitely different with all the first bowmans, first autos, prospect cards, rookie autos, etc. So from what I see, it's always the First Bowman Auto that's the one to get. I see guys saying they bought an Ian Happ for $30 and then sold it for $120 or whatever, and saw quite a few saying similar things with Cody Bellinger.

I've read a lot of prospect reports and other stuff recently and find it quite interesting. Although I find the baseball collecting hobby even more interesting. Seems like guys can have huge price swings with getting hot or getting cold. Just curious how people approach this hobby.

Do guys skyrocket this often or is it just a big year? I guess my bigger question is there a real skill to prospecting? Do people just buy a bit of everyone and hope that one of them make it big? Or do you get a hunch about one guy and stock up?

[gobullz1]

Brendan Rodgers

[ThoseBackPages]

buy everyone, you will win

[rudyjustinfarrell]

There are a lot of "geniuses" here.... Just read a called up thread.

Honestly I think it's a lot of luck, and a lot of paying attention. Team rosters, injuries and just luck of the draw are factors that go into playing time and personal/team success. Speculation is fun though.

[whitesoxfan3579]

buy everyone, you will win

Lol.. unfortunately the house always wins. This same theory or the efficient market hypothesis can be applied to investing as well. The fund manager may beat the market at different times, but unless you are Warren Buffet, it's extremely unlikely the fund manager will successfully pick actively managed stocks successfully over the long haul.

[ThoseBackPages]

Lol.. unfortunately the house always wins. This same theory or the efficient market hypothesis can be applied to investing as well. The fund manager may beat the market at different times, but unless you are Warren Buffet, it's extremely unlikely the fund manager will successfully pick actively managed stocks successfully over the long haul.

VERY true!

[yimmy80]

Just like anything else hype drives prices and overvalued and undervalued always reach their right value

[preakness]

Buy and then hype and promote like crazy

[imbluestreak23]

Yes there is skill. However it used to be much easier to make money "prospecting."

Thanks to Trout, Strasburg, and Harper mania, there has been a huge influx of get rich quick collectors (nothing wrong with that, it is what it is). As a result, buy in prices for comparable prospects today are about 2-3x what they were 7-10 years ago.

For that reason, many have moved on to other niches. Boards used to be full of prospect debates. Not much of that going on today.

[Ottomatic]

There's defunitely skill. Some players are more likely to be stars/big leaguers than others and that can often be seen in the stats, videos and reports. There's also a ton of luck. Some guys break out out of no where, some sure bets bust.

Not everybody has massive increase in price, but even players that will ultimately end up as mediocre can go from like a 3$ base auto to 10$ on call up alone. Just have to sell when you're comfortable.

[StraWMyerS]

Buy Kyle Tucker now, sell in July, or next March, or whenever...

Buy Victor Robles now....

Buy Jake Bauers now...

Buy Tyler O'Neill now...

Buy Eloy Jiminez NOW....


Buy Kevin Maitan later....

Buy Jhailyn Ortiz later...

Buy Ian Anderson next winter....


I don't know, its mostly all gut feeling for me, but I think there are some algorithms in there based on what I've picked up over the years.

Edit: (At least one of those is inaccurate, but I'm not ready to hype them yet)

[thenwhatjk]

The two smartest are definitely the Mitch Nay guy and the Mike Zunino guy

[OutlawStar]

Kind of but I think the margin for error is significantly higher now than ever. Guys come into the draft with such heavy hype machines - everyone wants to find the next Trout - that bowman 1st autos are heavily overpriced at the outset. Therefore, if a guy fizzles out, there goes a major part of your index and if a guy turns out to be good, the percentage he'll go up wont be as big.

[mattjc1983]

There's defunitely skill. Some players are more likely to be stars/big leaguers than others and that can often be seen in the stats, videos and reports. There's also a ton of luck. Some guys break out out of no where, some sure bets bust.

Not everybody has massive increase in price, but even players that will ultimately end up as mediocre can go from like a 3$ base auto to 10$ on call up alone. Just have to sell when you're comfortable.


Crazy that any pack-inserted auto is $3 in the first place. In a matter of about 10-15 years they went from extremely scarce inserts to practically commons.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[babyfaceposey]

Brendan Rodgers

Everyone put Rodgers on the back burner because of Trevor Story last year.

[shortstopguy12]

It all depends on your end game.. I find it very easy to make small profits... but then it usually isn't worth it... I generally want 25% profit.. then I'm happy to sell and move on. That being said, I've held too long, sold too early, and made many bad decisions along the way. Since last year I have made a spreadsheet to help me know what I am doing. It has actually made it a lot more fun. Most importantly, remember that it's a hobby!

[espyonage]

I like minor league ball, and live in a city with a team. I basically buy low on players no one ia really thinking about and just sit on them. I try to avoid first round picks for a while and let the market play itself out, just be patient. Someone will eventually need money or the play who still has potential gets cold. If I end up missing out early, I just pay attention and try to find a deal. I dont think Ive ever paid more than $80 for a prospect auto while they were on the rise and still could turn a profit usually. They are right though, in the end the house wins. Be more specific in what you buy unless you see something that you feel is a good deal. Thats just my advice and opinion. Oh and dont let emotions run you and your purchases. Think about this, there may be 1/1, /10, /25, /50 or whatever but you add them all up and you have plenty to chose from.

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[Big35Hurt]

Yes....buy up a certain prospect, and that start a thread about him telling the world how he is dialed in and raking it. Sell cards of said prospect. Wash, rinse, and repeat.

[SirTommyWinAlot]

"I can just look at a guy and I know he's not going to make it. No effin' way."

[mwash1983]

Shortstops, Centerfielders, Hard Throwing Pitchers, and HS pitchers in NY and LA Markets.

[ninjacookies]

I found a rather simple solution.

Stop prospecting and focus on early year stars with high upside during the offseason. Doesn't completely eliminate risk, but greatly mitigates it.

Oh yeah. And no pitchers.

[GreatAlbert]

Lol.. unfortunately the house always wins. This same theory or the efficient market hypothesis can be applied to investing as well. The fund manager may beat the market at different times, but unless you are Warren Buffet, it's extremely unlikely the fund manager will successfully pick actively managed stocks successfully over the long haul.

Please show me where over the long term, "the market" has beaten an actively managed portfolio of mutual funds. Curious as I work in the industry and have never seen it.

[whitesoxfan3579]

Yes....buy up a certain prospect, and that start a thread about him telling the world how he is dialed in and raking it. Sell cards of said prospect. Wash, rinse, and repeat.

Lol.. you would not be referring to Carlos Correa by any chance??? Lol!!!

[Yaga]

Everyone put Rodgers on the back burner because of Trevor Story last year.

Sorry a bit of a newbie question but what do you mean by this?

[GreatAlbert]

In regards to the OP, I have just started trying my hand at prospecting and have done very well thus far. I do however have a lot of time invested in researching, watching tape/stats, etc. A few guys I have gotten lucky with by buying up a few of their autos for pennies on the dollar of what I sold them for. (Judge and Story) A few have also made a nice jump since I purchased, but holding for their callup/impact. Also, you must know what your end game is. Moving bulk for low prices, moving minimum amt for max return, etc.

Not sure who you are referring to in terms of skyrocketing, maybe Judge and Happ. Are there others? There always seems to be one or two guys that get a callup each year that see a large spike in price.

In terms of prospecting being a skill, I would venture to say with the correct research and conviction, it is. Don't just buy one guy because everyone else is buying him. Paying attention to video, information, prospect reports from various locations, etc. The biggest thing I think is having a little bit of everything rather than going all in on one guy. i.e. Rainbow of #1 pick versus Base, Ref, 1 Color of 3-4 guys. (See Moniak)

Early on during release, some of the top guys in the product sell for crazy money (Maitan, Rutherford, Senzel), so that brings me to my next point of your initial investment. Prices almost always come down a month or two after release once everyone has gotten their hands on them. They can also fluctuate greatly as I have seen over the past year or two. Your initial investment into a card, in my mind, is the single most important thing. For example, one of the guys I am after has had 9.5s sold in the past two days from 50-75. That is a huge difference if your sale price is 125, at least for me.

Simply put, prospecting is quite a bit like buying stocks. Have a plan and stick to it. Don't be afraid to sell early if you are already at your target price that you want to sell at. See Story, Trevor. Injuries can be right around the corner for any player.

[Big35Hurt]

Lol.. you would not be referring to Carlos Correa by any chance??? Lol!!!

Did you notice how my reply with the links is missing, and so is your reply to mine pointing out the nice finds? Someone couldn't handle the truth...lol.

[espyonage]

I found a rather simple solution.

Stop prospecting and focus on early year stars with high upside during the offseason. Doesn't completely eliminate risk, but greatly mitigates it.

Oh yeah. And no pitchers.
Yeah, this too. Lol. Off season is great. And I avoid pitchers too unless its a steal. I really like MLB.COM scouting reports amd projections. They seem pretty fair and balanced and give you an idea of what you may expect. So before dropping over $100, ask yourself is this new hot prospect potentially worth this investment if he is viewed as the next Eduardo Perez?? [emoji12]

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[mwash1983]

I found a rather simple solution.

Stop prospecting and focus on early year stars with high upside during the offseason. Doesn't completely eliminate risk, but greatly mitigates it.

Oh yeah. And no pitchers.

I made a ton off Giolito. Bought a ton in early 2013 when the suckers were buying up Buxton. I sold off all of them last spring for triple what I paid for them if not more...

[coltsfan23]

Sorry a bit of a newbie question but what do you mean by this?

People were penciling Story in as the Rockies shortstop of the future after his torrid start last year. Slowed the Rodgers hype train.

[nomarkj]

Pitchers can be had, but it can be a little tricky. I really just look into guys coming off of TJ .. for example, Bought into Giolito at $15 and sold everything when he hit $50+ and have a good amount into Cease and have been slow selling at 2-3x what I bought in for.

[imbluestreak23]

It's easy to make extra cash flipping cards.

It's not AS easy prospecting today. The poster mentioning the margin of error being significantly higher than ever is correct.

Couple of things to take into consideration that are never meant (aside from the obvious that you shouldn't be doing this if you can't pay your bills, max 401k/403b, etc):
-Time value of money
-Inventory turns
-Opportunity costs

I prefer gratification much sooner when investing, in addition to "sure thing" returns. Prospecting loses all three of those battles in general.

[ckpismo]

Start with whatever your favorite team is. You're probably already at least somewhat familiar with the top prospects in your team's system (AAA) so start looking into guys below that level. The problem with guys in AAA is that everyone else knows who they are too so you're not really ahead. Buy in is pretty high for a beginner. You're far more likely to enjoy doing it this way because you have a rooting interest rather than studying the single A guys for some team you don't care about. Watch a few games, check the stats, buy a few cheap auto's and see what happens.

[ninjacookies]

I made a ton off Giolito. Bought a ton in early 2013 when the suckers were buying up Buxton. I sold off all of them last spring for triple what I paid for them if not more...

There's definitely money in pitchers. I made a good chunk on Darvish building up to his call up.

However, was burned twice on the other two. Just way more risk than I'm willing to take considering how little they play compared to positioning players and the longstanding history of tj's.

[Yaga]

Lots of really great points thanks guys!!!

My end game is... I'd like to buy low, see the card go up and then keep it. I'm a great buyer and awful seller lol. I just like doing it for the challenge really and I just like to collect. I'm a stay at home dad so time is no issue... I love finding stats, news, and reports to read on a daily basis while I take my daughter to her classes.

So yeah I'm not looking to get rich... Just I love buying a card low and watching it increase in value and then I have a player I can follow his stats and stuff.

My team is the Jays and would love to get guys like Vlad jr but his cards are fairly expensive​ already. Well at least to me. I'd rather buy a bunch of lower value guys with the chase of them being big down the road.

Just to get my foot in the door though, I did pick up a Rosario BC Chrome 1st auto and 1st auto refractor a few weeks ago. Was reading a bunch about him and he sounds like he's going to be big and possibly going to be called up soon. But for $100 cards that's it for now... I feel a lot more comfortable paying $20 to $30 especially if I can get them off comc. I have a fair amount of funds on there and I'm also in Canada and a lot of people won't ship your here (or it's really expensive to)

[moosetequila]

There's definitely money in pitchers. I made a good chunk on Darvish building up to his call up.

However, was burned twice on the other two. Just way more risk than I'm willing to take considering how little they play compared to positioning players and the longstanding history of tj's.


Yup... still sitting on some Harvey's...

[13goyankees13]

As someone else mentioned, there is a thing in economics called the efficient market hypothesis. It says that stock prices reflect all known information about companies, so you can't beat the market consistently.

That only works under a set of very specific assumptions. A few key ones are that all information about a stock is public and that there are many rational investors. The way to beat the market is to take advantage of information you know that is not public or to take advantage of irrationality.

If you apply that to baseball cards, there is room to beat the market. If somehow you know information about prospects before it is public, you could make money off of that. More realistically, you could know about public information but just faster than others. In the stock market, they have computers that instantly analyze news about companies and make decisions based off of that. I don't think prospectors are doing that, but if you see that a prospect is having a great day, you can buy up his cards before others figure out. With all of the games going on every day, it's likely that people won't see stuff too quickly.

Another option is to take advantage of irrationality. Everyone seems to have their own idea of how to prospect: avoid pitchers, only go for large-market teams, go for power hitters, etc. We all know there are a bunch of factors in card pricing, but it isn't easy to tell how strong each of those factors are and how they change as a player makes it to the MLB and becomes a vet. If you had the time and the technical knowledge, you could analyze all of the data out there and probably find certain guidelines to invest by that would beat the market. I wouldn't be surprised if many prospectors have done this to an extent and invest according to certain rules. Of course none of them will tell you because if others find out, those rules will correct themselves.

There's also room to make money off of hype around certain players. If a player has a ton of hype around him, odds are his prices are higher than they should be and will come back down. If you can create hype around a player you are getting ready to sell, you can increase your profits. Of course it's hard to do, but I'm sure people try it.

[babyfaceposey]

Sorry a bit of a newbie question but what do you mean by this?

After Trevor Story's hot start people were thinking he would be blocked at shortstop for the future. His prices dropped.

[babyfaceposey]

Lots of really great points thanks guys!!!

My end game is... I'd like to buy low, see the card go up and then keep it. I'm a great buyer and awful seller lol. I just like doing it for the challenge really and I just like to collect. I'm a stay at home dad so time is no issue... I love finding stats, news, and reports to read on a daily basis while I take my daughter to her classes.

So yeah I'm not looking to get rich... Just I love buying a card low and watching it increase in value and then I have a player I can follow his stats and stuff.

My team is the Jays and would love to get guys like Vlad jr but his cards are fairly expensive​ already. Well at least to me. I'd rather buy a bunch of lower value guys with the chase of them being big down the road.

Just to get my foot in the door though, I did pick up a Rosario BC Chrome 1st auto and 1st auto refractor a few weeks ago. Was reading a bunch about him and he sounds like he's going to be big and possibly going to be called up soon. But for $100 cards that's it for now... I feel a lot more comfortable paying $20 to $30 especially if I can get them off comc. I have a fair amount of funds on there and I'm also in Canada and a lot of people won't ship your here (or it's really expensive to)

Bo Bichette. Cheaper and putting up great numbers.

[Ray27Ray52]

I was in a sports memorabilia/mini card shop the other day. There was this younger looking dude, couldn't have been more than 22-23, working there. He asked what boxes I was interested in. I just laughed and said I don't do boxes. I buy singles to flip. Well, the floodgates opened after that.

He talked about how much money he made on Trea Turner which was actually kind of cool to listen to. He wasn't actually bragging. I think he was just happy to talk to someone else about baseball cards. He started to tell me "Buy Bowman, Buy bowman!!!" "that's where all the money is."

I nodded in agreement and said I understood. And then I asked the question that shall never be asked. The question that no one will ever answer truthfully. And he evaded just like I thought he would. Anyone want to guess what question I asked him?

[rudyjustinfarrell]

I was in a sports memorabilia/mini card shop the other day. There was this younger looking dude, couldn't have been more than 22-23, working there. He asked what boxes I was interested in. I just laughed and said I don't do boxes. I buy singles to flip. Well, the floodgates opened after that.

He talked about how much money he made on Trea Turner which was actually kind of cool to listen to. He wasn't actually bragging. I think he was just happy to talk to someone else about baseball cards. He started to tell me "Buy Bowman, Buy bowman!!!" "that's where all the money is."

I nodded in agreement and said I understood. And then I asked the question that shall never be asked. The question that no one will ever answer truthfully. And he evaded just like I thought he would. Anyone want to guess what question I asked him?

Either the 1st Auto/Prospect vs. RC debate.... or who he was currently buying?

[mattglet]

And then I asked the question that shall never be asked. The question that no one will ever answer truthfully. And he evaded just like I thought he would. Anyone want to guess what question I asked him?

A variation of "who are you betting on"?

[Ray27Ray52]

Either the 1st Auto/Prospect vs. RC debate.... or who he was currently buying?

Ding Ding. I asked him who he is buying now. I didn't expect a legitimate answer.

His face went white and he started to sweat. I could see the terror in his eyes at upsetting his new friend. He just sighed and said, I'm sorry I can't tell you that.

[blackbears86]

Ding Ding. I asked him who he is buying now. I didn't expect a legitimate answer.

His face went white and he started to sweat. I could see the terror in his eyes at upsetting his new friend. He just sighed and said, I'm sorry I can't tell you that.

I get why people don't want to share, but why not share?

If I think Nick Stenzel is going to be a star and I already have 30 + auto's of him, why not share it with others? (then others will buy him up and create a shortage of his auto's on ebay.)

Tough I know, given today's overproduction.

[Kcelelli]

Prospecting is such a fun endeavor and it's tough to do it right. You can purchase 3 different guys to invest in and odds are you'll be wrong on at least 2. But I definitely think there are plenty of little tricks you can use to help out.

I typically won't buy a pitcher unless he's hurt and I like something in his scouting report for him to rebound, for example James Kaprelian or Giolito. Many people made quite a bit off Giolito after his drop and I imagine there are a few people out there buying up Kap right now hoping he comes back strong after TJS.

I never buy the super hyped guys right after a product comes out so for this year no Maitan, Rutherford, Senzel, Acuna etc. But typically you'll see them fall later on in the year, especially Maitan since he's so far away right now. I like the challenge of finding some lesser guys to buy up and keep an eye on for a while, that's what makes this hobby fun for me. You test your own abilities to make the decisions and somewhat build your own team of prospects.

[Kcelelli]

I will also say as a Yankee fan it's been fun watching their prices since Bowman came out. Rutherford and Torres have predictably begun to drop since the initial release but Chance Adams has steadily been rising only boosted by strong stats and an early bump up to AAA where he had a great first start yesterday.

Also I too am confused at people not sharing who they're prospecting. It's not like there isn't enough cards to go around.

[OutlawStar]

Ding Ding. I asked him who he is buying now. I didn't expect a legitimate answer.

His face went white and he started to sweat. I could see the terror in his eyes at upsetting his new friend. He just sighed and said, I'm sorry I can't tell you that.

The real question should've been what's your total ROI.

I'm more interested in how many 1st autos he has sitting at home of guys with injuries or putting up .210 obp in AA than the three Trea Turners he sold into the hype on.

I bet you it's a lot more than he'd tell you.

[NickM]

Lots of really great points thanks guys!!!

My end game is... I'd like to buy low, see the card go up and then keep it. I'm a great buyer and awful seller lol. I just like doing it for the challenge really and I just like to collect. I'm a stay at home dad so time is no issue... I love finding stats, news, and reports to read on a daily basis while I take my daughter to her classes.

So yeah I'm not looking to get rich... Just I love buying a card low and watching it increase in value and then I have a player I can follow his stats and stuff.

My team is the Jays and would love to get guys like Vlad jr but his cards are fairly expensive​ already. Well at least to me. I'd rather buy a bunch of lower value guys with the chase of them being big down the road.

Just to get my foot in the door though, I did pick up a Rosario BC Chrome 1st auto and 1st auto refractor a few weeks ago. Was reading a bunch about him and he sounds like he's going to be big and possibly going to be called up soon. But for $100 cards that's it for now... I feel a lot more comfortable paying $20 to $30 especially if I can get them off comc. I have a fair amount of funds on there and I'm also in Canada and a lot of people won't ship your here (or it's really expensive to)

Consider Rowdy Tellez.

[dasiegel]

I think that it is better to focus on player's first autos especially prospect autos from the Bowman products. This still comes down to doing a lot of research. You can prospect fully in the minors and be rid of your cards with a profit before there is ever a callup or wait for the big MLb performances like Story, Judge or Bellinger etc. Each has different risks. At the end of the day, it's like basketball RCs except it starts at a way different level and different stats equal different likely price results. Buy early sell when there is hype... and strawmyers gave you some nice freebies above.

[hairysasquatch]

The skill comes from the skilled job needed to make the $ to blow on cards. :coffee:

[Jaypers]

If you wear this on your head, you become more powerful than Carnac, able to predict which prospects will become stars and which will fade into obscurity. Get one.

372527

[tke1600]

Same skill set as these:

https://encrypted-tbn0.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcSCorjZuDR45eSC_59-8jeC8vswKVVzS7M45bYRdyEutz8mMnmP

[glen87]

http://www.sidehustlenation.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/05/Napoleon-Dynamite-skills.gif

[ctbinvestments]

It's easy to make extra cash flipping cards.

It's not AS easy prospecting today. The poster mentioning the margin of error being significantly higher than ever is correct.

Couple of things to take into consideration that are never meant (aside from the obvious that you shouldn't be doing this if you can't pay your bills, max 401k/403b, etc):
-Time value of money
-Inventory turns
-Opportunity costs

I prefer gratification much sooner when investing, in addition to "sure thing" returns. Prospecting loses all three of those battles in general.

I agree you should not prospect unless you can afford to. I already max out my 401K & Roth yearly already so it's just another way to invest in something I like to do. Most of the time I'm looking 6+ months out when I'm buying someone in bulk and nobody is ever going to be right 100% of the time no matter what they tell you. I've had great hits and big misses but I enjoy it and can't wait to pick my 2017 guy to hoard.

The two smartest are definitely the Mitch Nay guy and the Mike Zunino guy

I actually turned a profit on Nay, can't say that for the guys I sold them too. Definitely was a miss with injuries killing him. Braxton Davidson it appears I missed on but there are several more along the way I did great on.

[Archangel1775]

Research WAR for the Top 100 and pick your poison. :)

[NeedChapmans]

If you see me investing in a baseball prospect, immediately look to buy life insurance for that individual.

You'll retire in 18 months.

[ctbinvestments]

If you see me investing in a baseball prospect, immediately look to buy life insurance for that individual.

You'll retire in 18 months.

True :)! , Bumgarner tried to kill himself on the ATV

[moosetequila]

If you wear this on your head, you become more powerful than Carnac, able to predict which prospects will become stars and which will fade into obscurity. Get one.

372527

Wrap it in tinfoil and increase the power by 100!

[OutlawStar]

If you see me investing in a baseball prospect, immediately look to buy life insurance for that individual.

You'll retire in 18 months.

Guys, I just bought a bunch of Aaron Nola 1st bowman autos.

Tommy John surgery confirmed.

[Bob Loblaw]

Guys, I just bought a bunch of Aaron Nola 1st bowman autos.

Tommy John surgery confirmed.

Sweet jesus no.

LMK if you want any more.

http://i.ebayimg.com/images/g/9bAAAOSwu4BVkVFY/s-l1600.jpg

[Yaga]

If you wear this on your head, you become more powerful than Carnac, able to predict which prospects will become stars and which will fade into obscurity. Get one.

372527

Ahahaah just ordered one! Now I'm going to be the ultimate prospector...

[Yaga]

Thanks to all for AWESOME advice! Definitely gave me a lot to think about and some really good ideas!

[Broncoboys7]

I've asked this before, but I'll ask again: With one player, and after fees, etc., what is considered a win?
If I've bought $2,000 worth of one guy, how much should I be "satisfied," "happy," or "ecstatic" about getting back? $2,500? Do I hope for $3,000? Is $4,000 just crazy talk?