Is there a skill to prospecting??

[Yaga]

Fairly new to baseball collecting and I think I'm starting to get it a bit. It's definitely different with all the first bowmans, first autos, prospect cards, rookie autos, etc. So from what I see, it's always the First Bowman Auto that's the one to get. I see guys saying they bought an Ian Happ for $30 and then sold it for $120 or whatever, and saw quite a few saying similar things with Cody Bellinger.

I've read a lot of prospect reports and other stuff recently and find it quite interesting. Although I find the baseball collecting hobby even more interesting. Seems like guys can have huge price swings with getting hot or getting cold. Just curious how people approach this hobby.

Do guys skyrocket this often or is it just a big year? I guess my bigger question is there a real skill to prospecting? Do people just buy a bit of everyone and hope that one of them make it big? Or do you get a hunch about one guy and stock up?

[gobullz1]

Brendan Rodgers

[ThoseBackPages]

buy everyone, you will win

[rudyjustinfarrell]

There are a lot of "geniuses" here.... Just read a called up thread.

Honestly I think it's a lot of luck, and a lot of paying attention. Team rosters, injuries and just luck of the draw are factors that go into playing time and personal/team success. Speculation is fun though.

[whitesoxfan3579]

Originally Posted by ThoseBackPages

buy everyone, you will win

Lol.. unfortunately the house always wins. This same theory or the efficient market hypothesis can be applied to investing as well. The fund manager may beat the market at different times, but unless you are Warren Buffet, it's extremely unlikely the fund manager will successfully pick actively managed stocks successfully over the long haul.

[ThoseBackPages]

Originally Posted by whitesoxfan3579

Lol.. unfortunately the house always wins. This same theory or the efficient market hypothesis can be applied to investing as well. The fund manager may beat the market at different times, but unless you are Warren Buffet, it's extremely unlikely the fund manager will successfully pick actively managed stocks successfully over the long haul.

VERY true!

[yimmy80]

Just like anything else hype drives prices and overvalued and undervalued always reach their right value

[preakness]

Buy and then hype and promote like crazy

[imbluestreak23]

Yes there is skill. However it used to be much easier to make money "prospecting."

Thanks to Trout, Strasburg, and Harper mania, there has been a huge influx of get rich quick collectors (nothing wrong with that, it is what it is). As a result, buy in prices for comparable prospects today are about 2-3x what they were 7-10 years ago.

For that reason, many have moved on to other niches. Boards used to be full of prospect debates. Not much of that going on today.

[Ottomatic]

There's defunitely skill. Some players are more likely to be stars/big leaguers than others and that can often be seen in the stats, videos and reports. There's also a ton of luck. Some guys break out out of no where, some sure bets bust.

Not everybody has massive increase in price, but even players that will ultimately end up as mediocre can go from like a 3$ base auto to 10$ on call up alone. Just have to sell when you're comfortable.

[StraWMyerS]

Buy Kyle Tucker now, sell in July, or next March, or whenever...

Buy Victor Robles now....

Buy Jake Bauers now...

Buy Tyler O'Neill now...

Buy Eloy Jiminez NOW....


Buy Kevin Maitan later....

Buy Jhailyn Ortiz later...

Buy Ian Anderson next winter....


I don't know, its mostly all gut feeling for me, but I think there are some algorithms in there based on what I've picked up over the years.

Edit: (At least one of those is inaccurate, but I'm not ready to hype them yet)

[thenwhatjk]

The two smartest are definitely the Mitch Nay guy and the Mike Zunino guy

[OutlawStar]

Kind of but I think the margin for error is significantly higher now than ever. Guys come into the draft with such heavy hype machines - everyone wants to find the next Trout - that bowman 1st autos are heavily overpriced at the outset. Therefore, if a guy fizzles out, there goes a major part of your index and if a guy turns out to be good, the percentage he'll go up wont be as big.

[mattjc1983]

Originally Posted by Ottomatic

There's defunitely skill. Some players are more likely to be stars/big leaguers than others and that can often be seen in the stats, videos and reports. There's also a ton of luck. Some guys break out out of no where, some sure bets bust.

Not everybody has massive increase in price, but even players that will ultimately end up as mediocre can go from like a 3$ base auto to 10$ on call up alone. Just have to sell when you're comfortable.

Crazy that any pack-inserted auto is $3 in the first place. In a matter of about 10-15 years they went from extremely scarce inserts to practically commons.


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[babyfaceposey]

Originally Posted by gobullz1

Brendan Rodgers

Everyone put Rodgers on the back burner because of Trevor Story last year.

[shortstopguy12]

It all depends on your end game.. I find it very easy to make small profits... but then it usually isn't worth it... I generally want 25% profit.. then I'm happy to sell and move on. That being said, I've held too long, sold too early, and made many bad decisions along the way. Since last year I have made a spreadsheet to help me know what I am doing. It has actually made it a lot more fun. Most importantly, remember that it's a hobby!

[espyonage]

I like minor league ball, and live in a city with a team. I basically buy low on players no one ia really thinking about and just sit on them. I try to avoid first round picks for a while and let the market play itself out, just be patient. Someone will eventually need money or the play who still has potential gets cold. If I end up missing out early, I just pay attention and try to find a deal. I dont think Ive ever paid more than $80 for a prospect auto while they were on the rise and still could turn a profit usually. They are right though, in the end the house wins. Be more specific in what you buy unless you see something that you feel is a good deal. Thats just my advice and opinion. Oh and dont let emotions run you and your purchases. Think about this, there may be 1/1, /10, /25, /50 or whatever but you add them all up and you have plenty to chose from.

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[Big35Hurt]

Yes....buy up a certain prospect, and that start a thread about him telling the world how he is dialed in and raking it. Sell cards of said prospect. Wash, rinse, and repeat.

[SirTommyWinAlot]

"I can just look at a guy and I know he's not going to make it. No effin' way."

[mwash1983]

Shortstops, Centerfielders, Hard Throwing Pitchers, and HS pitchers in NY and LA Markets.

[ninjacookies]

I found a rather simple solution.

Stop prospecting and focus on early year stars with high upside during the offseason. Doesn't completely eliminate risk, but greatly mitigates it.

Oh yeah. And no pitchers.

[GreatAlbert]

Originally Posted by whitesoxfan3579

Lol.. unfortunately the house always wins. This same theory or the efficient market hypothesis can be applied to investing as well. The fund manager may beat the market at different times, but unless you are Warren Buffet, it's extremely unlikely the fund manager will successfully pick actively managed stocks successfully over the long haul.

Please show me where over the long term, "the market" has beaten an actively managed portfolio of mutual funds. Curious as I work in the industry and have never seen it.

[whitesoxfan3579]

Originally Posted by Big35Hurt

Yes....buy up a certain prospect, and that start a thread about him telling the world how he is dialed in and raking it. Sell cards of said prospect. Wash, rinse, and repeat.

Lol.. you would not be referring to Carlos Correa by any chance??? Lol!!!

[Yaga]

Originally Posted by babyfaceposey

Everyone put Rodgers on the back burner because of Trevor Story last year.

Sorry a bit of a newbie question but what do you mean by this?

[GreatAlbert]

In regards to the OP, I have just started trying my hand at prospecting and have done very well thus far. I do however have a lot of time invested in researching, watching tape/stats, etc. A few guys I have gotten lucky with by buying up a few of their autos for pennies on the dollar of what I sold them for. (Judge and Story) A few have also made a nice jump since I purchased, but holding for their callup/impact. Also, you must know what your end game is. Moving bulk for low prices, moving minimum amt for max return, etc.

Not sure who you are referring to in terms of skyrocketing, maybe Judge and Happ. Are there others? There always seems to be one or two guys that get a callup each year that see a large spike in price.

In terms of prospecting being a skill, I would venture to say with the correct research and conviction, it is. Don't just buy one guy because everyone else is buying him. Paying attention to video, information, prospect reports from various locations, etc. The biggest thing I think is having a little bit of everything rather than going all in on one guy. i.e. Rainbow of #1 pick versus Base, Ref, 1 Color of 3-4 guys. (See Moniak)

Early on during release, some of the top guys in the product sell for crazy money (Maitan, Rutherford, Senzel), so that brings me to my next point of your initial investment. Prices almost always come down a month or two after release once everyone has gotten their hands on them. They can also fluctuate greatly as I have seen over the past year or two. Your initial investment into a card, in my mind, is the single most important thing. For example, one of the guys I am after has had 9.5s sold in the past two days from 50-75. That is a huge difference if your sale price is 125, at least for me.

Simply put, prospecting is quite a bit like buying stocks. Have a plan and stick to it. Don't be afraid to sell early if you are already at your target price that you want to sell at. See Story, Trevor. Injuries can be right around the corner for any player.