Are we in 1989 all over again

[rogueriver]

With pack prices as high as they are right now I really wonder how the print runs on these supposed limited edition rookies are...I was a collector during the junk wax era and there are a few similarities people seem to have forgotten. Everybody keeps saying that these are extremely limited and you cant find them anywhere and when they do there are lines of people buying all of them. I remember in 1989 and 1990 going to Costco and literally people leaving with pallets of cards. I remember being told to hold onto these cards because they would be valuable in the future, they were limited. But they were limited only because people were hoarding them. ( SOUND FAMILIAR) I really would like to know how many 1989 Griffey rookies were produced between all the brands, and compare that to how many Zion Rookies were produced. I bet there were more Zions. Just my take on things now as I sit back and watch.

[SGC300ier]

I'm listening....

Sent from my SM-G991U using Tapatalk

[dcarado]

HOT TAKE

[mc1]

There are probably 100,000 base Zions RCs for Mosaic, Hoops and Prizm.

[IlliniBear]

There have been 82,282copies of the 1989 Upper Deck Ken Griffey Jr. graded by PSA.

https://www.psacard.com/pop/baseball-cards/1989/upper-deck/52298

There have been 11,452 copies of Juan Soto's 2018 Topps Chrome Base card graded by PSA if I'm reading the chart right.

https://www.psacard.com/pop/baseball-cards/2018/topps-chrome-update/161591

His 2018 Update flagship base has been graded 27,063 times.

I think they are printing too many cards, however, I also don't think it's possible to truly appreciate how many cards they printed in the junk wax era.

I also don't think there is nearly as much unripped wax from modern times but perhaps there is info that would debunk it.

[mc1]

Theres also over 100,000 Hoops Premium Zion base.

Id say theres a million or two 89 UD Griffeys.

[88horsepower]

Theres also over 100,000 Hoops Premium Zion base.

Id say theres a million or two 89 UD Griffeys.

While true, the Griffey is an iconic card of a HOF'er and the Zion is just one of hundreds of thousands of base of a player who has potential to be great. I keep thinking of how Shaq is literally one of the 10-20 greatest NBA players of all-time and his rookies are relatively cheap even in Gem condition. The demand just isn't there like it is for an 89 Griffey UD, which is a Mt. Rushmore type of card for that era.

[mindcycle]

If we’re comparing bball only, I’d say 19-20 Zion hype is probably more comparable to 1992-93 Shaq hype. Production and number of sets had been steadily climbing upwards since the mid 80’s, then largely peaked with Shaq’s rookie card hype where everyone thought they’d retire on base Upper Deck RC’s. The industry held on a few more years with large production numbers and interest, then faded out by the late 90’s. I see the same pattern happening now.

[gomiamigo]

They actually printed 2mm Griffeys.

[dthimesch]

With pack prices as high as they are right now I really wonder how the print runs on these supposed limited edition rookies are...I was a collector during the junk wax era and there are a few similarities people seem to have forgotten. Everybody keeps saying that these are extremely limited and you cant find them anywhere and when they do there are lines of people buying all of them. I remember in 1989 and 1990 going to Costco and literally people leaving with pallets of cards. I remember being told to hold onto these cards because they would be valuable in the future, they were limited. But they were limited only because people were hoarding them. ( SOUND FAMILIAR) I really would like to know how many 1989 Griffey rookies were produced between all the brands, and compare that to how many Zion Rookies were produced. I bet there were more Zions. Just my take on things now as I sit back and watch.

Hoarding sounds familiar sure.

But no one is leaving Costco with pallets of cards. That should tell you how much was printed back then compared to now.

[YeahBuddy]

Just wait till the Fanatics years .... when you OVER PROMISE (offering a deal 18x to the MLB of what Topps was giving them.) Then you have to OVER DELIVER ... to get that ROI.

[Ferg1945]

With pack prices as high as they are right now I really wonder how the print runs on these supposed limited edition rookies are...I was a collector during the junk wax era and there are a few similarities people seem to have forgotten. Everybody keeps saying that these are extremely limited and you cant find them anywhere and when they do there are lines of people buying all of them. I remember in 1989 and 1990 going to Costco and literally people leaving with pallets of cards. I remember being told to hold onto these cards because they would be valuable in the future, they were limited. But they were limited only because people were hoarding them. ( SOUND FAMILIAR) I really would like to know how many 1989 Griffey rookies were produced between all the brands, and compare that to how many Zion Rookies were produced. I bet there were more Zions. Just my take on things now as I sit back and watch.

Hold the limited, low POP stuff.

Base likely won't hold much long term value

[Cavaliercards]

No because the dynamics of the hobby have vastly changed

[Moderncards]

Hold the limited, low POP stuff.

Base likely won't hold much long term value

I agree with this, If it is #/ed you know how many were made. Base is basic.

[Nomad]

If Fanatics is paying 18x Topps and the switchover is a couple years out, I predict it never happens. I wonder what their escape clause is?

[AnthonyT]

I think print runs are lower than they were in the 90's, but I would not be surprised if print runs are half of what they were, when you consider every variant, parallel, subset, subset parallel variant, autos, numbered, etc, etc across all the different products. In 1989, there are 4 different Griffey rookies. One from Topps, Upper Deck, Fleer and Score. In 2018, across all brands and sets, there are something like 1800 unique Ohtani rookies.

While I believe there are less cards being printed today overall, there is still the illusion of scarcity by having the same card printing with a color tint to set it apart from its base card, and doing that 20 times, each with a different print run. How many are available for sale at any given moment helps determine the demand and scarcity.

Currently, with computer printing and cutting, you are getting a perfect-near perfect card every time. Contrast that with the 90's and earlier, where this was more problematic and imprecise, then I think it begins to balance out when people are searching for perfect examples of the card. There are 12k Topps Traded Griffey PSA 10's and they run about $175, while there are 18k Soto Update PSA 10's and they run about $140.

[pachyderm]

There are probably 100,000 base Zions RCs for Mosaic, Hoops and Prizm.

There are already close to 240,000 Zion cards graded by PSA according to gemmint.com and the majority of that is from 2019. Who knows how many ungraded are out there.

[Scottish Punk]

I think print runs are lower than they were in the 90's, but I would not be surprised if print runs are half of what they were, when you consider every variant, parallel, subset, subset parallel variant, autos, numbered, etc, etc across all the different products. In 1989, there are 4 different Griffey rookies. One from Topps, Upper Deck, Fleer and Score. In 2018, across all brands and sets, there are something like 1800 unique Ohtani rookies.

While I believe there are less cards being printed today overall, there is still the illusion of scarcity by having the same card printing with a color tint to set it apart from its base card, and doing that 20 times, each with a different print run. How many are available for sale at any given moment helps determine the demand and scarcity.



This is the key point, imo. Yes companies are not printing 1988 donruss levels of cards, but I believe we are still printing well over any long term type demand. How many 2018 Soto Topps flagship are out there when adding up all the different parallels? Double that number for the Chrome versions?

With all the different brand names under Topps, there is just a absolute ton of each rookie available now. It just feels like more cause you can buy 100 different Soto RCs compared to 5 and your done on Griffey Jr. If you say 1 million each for total of 5 million griffey RCs. in circulation. How many Soto cards in circulation among all the brands - 1 million? 40 sets at just an average of 25k per set gets you to a million. That doesn't seem like much of a stretch.

I don't think we will ever get to a the late 80's point of printing. How does the current printing compare to say early 80's or late 70's. None of that is considered "rare" and 70's is just one set.

[discodanman45]

With Topps and Panini losing their licenses to Fanatics, we will see printing rivaling the junk wax era once again. Why would they care to keep supply low for the health of the hobby? They will print and print now until people won't buy. It will get much worse unless fanatics comes in and buys these companies.

[mc1]

There are already close to 240,000 Zion cards graded by PSA according to gemmint.com and the majority of that is from 2019. Who knows how many ungraded are out there.

I meant 100k for each of those products.

[Arianny_Fan]

I wish Costco still sold cards.

[tjforce]

If you are spending your money on the overproduced base stuff, then don't expect to be rich of of it 20 years from now.

There is plenty of rare stuff to chase that has been killing it in this market recently and will continue to

[JeremyNick]

Yes. It is.

They are printing to the moon and people are buying like it’s the end of the world. We likely have about 12-18 months left before a crash.

[discodanman45]

Yes. It is.

They are printing to the moon and people are buying like it’s the end of the world. We likely have about 12-18 months left before a crash.

I don't think a crash will happen, but a definite correction in cards produced the last few years. Most cards, even prizm the last two years, will not be worth the PSA holder they are in. The junk slab era is real and we will be seeing $1 PSA slab bins at card shows in the next few years.

[jbball50]

I wish Costco still sold cards.

Yeah you might be able to actually get a box because they’d limit them like toilet paper.

[JeremyNick]

I don't think a crash will happen, but a definite correction in cards produced the last few years. Most cards, even prizm the last two years, will not be worth the PSA holder they are in. The junk slab era is real and we will be seeing $1 PSA slab bins at card shows in the next few years.

To me there is too overproduction and manipulation in the card market to not predict a crash.

[beavers]

Hoarding sounds familiar sure.

But no one is leaving Costco with pallets of cards. That should tell you how much was printed back then compared to now.


People aren’t leaving Costco with them, but your head is in the sand if you think that isn’t happening my friend.

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20210903/1a08f3315f14999f1d5bac0a50c10bd6.jpg


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[mc1]

I don't think a crash will happen, but a definite correction in cards produced the last few years. Most cards, even prizm the last two years, will not be worth the PSA holder they are in. The junk slab era is real and we will be seeing $1 PSA slab bins at card shows in the next few years.

Zion and Ja Prizm Base 9s have corrected some already. Seeing Morants for $50-60 and Zion for $125. Im sure the 10s have also dropped some in value.

Some of the other rookies are probably barely worth more in 9 slabs than raws. Herro for $15-20, not even worth the grading cost.

[k13]

At least all those cards in the 90's cost already nothing at the time.

The losses will be hugely magnified.

[k13]

I don't think a crash will happen, but a definite correction in cards produced the last few years. Most cards, even prizm the last two years, will not be worth the PSA holder they are in. The junk slab era is real and we will be seeing $1 PSA slab bins at card shows in the next few years.

This is nothing new.
Score Vince Young/Bush/Peterson/Leinhart BGS

Thousands and thousands of them.

[discodanman45]

At least all those cards in the 90's cost already nothing at the time.

The losses will be hugely magnified.

I feel bad for the kids in this hobby. Well except the one's who joined before the boom and have a net worth more than me! :doh: Spending all their money on one current player PSA 10 slab and the cards will continue to drop as PSA unleashes hundreds of thousands PSA slabs to the market each month.

[discodanman45]

This is nothing new.
Score Vince Young/Bush/Peterson/Leinhart BGS

Thousands and thousands of them.

I have an amazing Kevin Maas, Brien Taylor, and Christian Laettner collection from my youth. All sitting in yellowed toploaders from the 90's.

[dgbarnes]

If you're buying base prizms, yes you're living in 1989. If you're buying low numbered, highly sought after parallels (color match, gold, black, etc.) you're living in 2030.

[JeremyNick]

I feel bad for the kids in this hobby. Well except the one's who joined before the boom and have a net worth more than me! :doh: Spending all their money on one current player PSA 10 slab and the cards will continue to drop as PSA unleashes hundreds of thousands PSA slabs to the market each month.

You now have investment groups buying cards as investments in a completely unregulated market.

I’ll say it again…Investments groups buying cards as investments in a completely unregulated market.

Think about the manipulation investment groups try and create in regulated markets. Now let them loose in the card market with hype men like Kenny G and Gary V touting how strong the hobby has become.

News articles, media coverage, hype, hype, hype. All the while the majority of buying and selling is not being done by the hype men and manipulators. Not to mention none of the previous shady crap (grade/pop massaging, trimming and altering) being resolved yet either.

I feel bad for the people who get stuck holding the pelican case when this ends.

[rogueriver]

I feel bad for the kids in this hobby. Well except the one's who joined before the boom and have a net worth more than me! :doh: Spending all their money on one current player PSA 10 slab and the cards will continue to drop as PSA unleashes hundreds of thousands PSA slabs to the market each month.

I feel bad for the kids who never get to open packs anymore.......

[DirkNFan]

One thing I haven't seen on this and similar threads being discussed is the total number of rookie cards in the 80/90's vs. now.

If we take this into consider, I think ultra-modern rookie cards production might dwarf the older cards.

For example, if you compare Shaq, who has 7 RCs between Fleer, Skybox, Hoops, Upper Deck, Topps, Stadium Club, and Ultra in the 1992-93 season, to Zion, who has too many RCs to count, I would think Zion would have more total RCs printed than Shaq.

If you go back further to the mid/late 80's where it was just Fleer (and Hoops in 1989-90), the # of RCs of many players of that era should be a lot less than the combined totals of ultra-modern RCs these days across all products.

As a collector, the bottomline for me is still "buy what you like" though. Production numbers do play a factor in how much I am willing to spend on a card, but it won't necessarily keep me away from getting a card I like.

[discodanman45]

I feel bad for the kids who never get to open packs anymore.......

This is why NFT's are taking off. They are the only packs that kids can "rip" these days.

[mindcycle]

One thing I haven't seen on this and similar threads being discussed is the total number of rookie cards in the 80/90's vs. now.

If we take this into consider, I think ultra-modern rookie cards production might dwarf the older cards.

For example, if you compare Shaq, who has 7 RCs between Fleer, Skybox, Hoops, Upper Deck, Topps, Stadium Club, and Ultra in the 1992-93 season, to Zion, who has too many RCs to count, I would think Zion would have more total RCs printed than Shaq.

Yep. Still amazing to me that people can't see this and they still tout the "but they printed moar in the 90's.." narrative.

There are currently 1,313,166 PSA graded cards from 2019-20 basketball releases alone. 1.3 million.. The only other year that comes close to that is 2018 with 562,882.

https://www.psacard.com/pop/basketball-cards/20019

1.3 million is only PSA graded cards too, it doesn't account for BGS or the other grading companies, millions of raw cards still out there, or the stacks of unopened Walmart bought blasters that people are hoarding in their garage for "investment" purposes.

[mc1]

If you go back further to the mid/late 80's where it was just Fleer (and Hoops in 1989-90), the # of RCs of many players of that era should be a lot less than the combined totals of ultra-modern RCs these days across all products.

As a collector, the bottomline for me is still "buy what you like" though. Production numbers do play a factor in how much I am willing to spend on a card, but it won't necessarily keep me away from getting a card I like.

Late 80s and early 90s print runs were in the several hundreds of thousands and possibly millions. Grading wasnt a thing back then and for most of this time they were worth a few bucks. Not really worth grading.

[discodanman45]

There are currently 1,313,166 PSA graded cards from 2019-20 basketball releases alone. 1.3 million.. The only other year that comes close to that is 2018 with 562,882.

Exponential growth at its finest!

2015 - 51,331 PSA cards graded
2016 - 92,851 PSA cards graded
2017 - 230,269 PSA cards graded
2018 - 562,882 PSA cards graded
2019 - 1,313,166 PSA cards graded

https://www.psacard.com/pop/basketball-cards/20019

[Spacemanspif]

There are already close to 240,000 Zion cards graded by PSA according to gemmint.com and the majority of that is from 2019. Who knows how many ungraded are out there.

Not as many as there are Tyler Herro, RJ Barrett, Keldon Johnson, etc. I've been saying this for a while, but that backlog is full of JUNK. Everyone looking at the number of Zion bass Prizms expecting that number to jump aren't thinking logically. The majority of Zion and Luka base got graded already and we're now in the midst of all the "submit everything" bulk subs.

There's still a ton of Zion coming through in the form of Mosaic & Chronicles, but I think the biggest bumps are going to be in those secondary guys that everyone didn't submit initially, but once they saw everything going crazy in November through February, started sending in $5 cards just for the hell of it. I mean, I just got back a sub that had a bunch of Zion & Ja paper Hoops, and base Prizms of Keldon & Cameron Johnson, Bazley, etc.

PSA CTD puts us in December right now, it's kind of hard to remember what was hot at that time but I think that's when people started kicking over to "vintage", and stuff like Shaq or other 90s star rookies, and common Jordans? I received a data set from Gemrate that I haven't had time to go through yet, but my guess is that if I chart everything out, the higher value stuff like Zion & Ja base Prizm or decent parallels from any set, will trend down, and cheap / junk cards are trending up. Good luck with the fire sales of Bol Bol base mosaics.

[BOOMER7]

Theres also over 100,000 Hoops Premium Zion base.

Id say theres a million or two 89 UD Griffeys.

We had 2 full bricks of Griffey’s back in the day
1600 RC’s

[tconte]

There have been 82,282copies of the 1989 Upper Deck Ken Griffey Jr. graded by PSA.

https://www.psacard.com/pop/baseball-cards/1989/upper-deck/52298

There have been 11,452 copies of Juan Soto's 2018 Topps Chrome Base card graded by PSA if I'm reading the chart right.

https://www.psacard.com/pop/baseball-cards/2018/topps-chrome-update/161591

His 2018 Update flagship base has been graded 27,063 times.

I think they are printing too many cards, however, I also don't think it's possible to truly appreciate how many cards they printed in the junk wax era.

I also don't think there is nearly as much unripped wax from modern times but perhaps there is info that would debunk it.

I'll the iconic Griffey over Soto every time. About 3400 PSA 10 Griffeys versus over 10300 Soto 10's with thousands more out there waiting to
be graded.

[drobfan8]

If you're buying base prizms, yes you're living in 1989. If you're buying low numbered, highly sought after parallels (color match, gold, black, etc.) you're living in 2030.

Well said.

It doesn't take a genius to figure out that if you're loading up on Prizm Bass and other base that you're gonna lose out.

I don't think things are anywhere near as bad as the 80s or 90s. There are far more collectors now and cannot walk in to 1 single shopping Centre in Australia and find a pack of basketball cards. When in the 90s I always could.

I do think the boggest concern is for people dropping $2k + on Hobby boxes. Just yikes.

[rogueriver]

Exponential growth at its finest!

2015 - 51,331 PSA cards graded
2016 - 92,851 PSA cards graded
2017 - 230,269 PSA cards graded
2018 - 562,882 PSA cards graded
2019 - 1,313,166 PSA cards graded

https://www.psacard.com/pop/basketball-cards/20019

2020 was even higher than 2019 but a long shot.....

Wow I knew it was crazy but that is just PSA....I am sure BGS and SGC had the same growth along with the 3-4 other pop ups.....I wonder if the market is big enough to cover it.

[drobfan8]

Seeing as people were paying $100 for UD Bass Shaq Rookies in 1992. I don't think people should over think buying a top Rookie Prizm Bass for $100 in 2021..

Don't forget, this is a Hobby after all.

[Arianny_Fan]

Yeah you might be able to actually get a box because they’d limit them like toilet paper.

Lol! Only downfall I see is their return policy. They accept expired milk. I can imagine opened cards too.

[RogerGodahell]

They made billions of 1992 Donruss cards. It's one of the first products that had serial numbered cards which were limited to 5,000, 7,500, and 10,000. People doing research who opened them by the case said they fell about 1 card per 1-3 cases. That puts the print run in the millions per player and billions total for the product. And that doesn't include jumbo packs, rack packs, or factory sets.

[KhalDrogo]

Yep. Still amazing to me that people can't see this and they still tout the "but they printed moar in the 90's.." narrative.

There are currently 1,313,166 PSA graded cards from 2019-20 basketball releases alone. 1.3 million.. The only other year that comes close to that is 2018 with 562,882.

https://www.psacard.com/pop/basketball-cards/20019

1.3 million is only PSA graded cards too, it doesn't account for BGS or the other grading companies, millions of raw cards still out there, or the stacks of unopened Walmart bought blasters that people are hoarding in their garage for "investment" purposes.
When you have idiots grading Sekou Dumbdumb cards by the dozens because a popular BO member actually thought he was better than the trash that he is, this is what happens.

[RogerGodahell]

The print run has certainly increased over the last few years but so has the popularity of basketball cards in general. I don't think you can accurately measure how many more cards have been printed by the pop reports alone. Because we've also seen a grading explosion. I don't believe they printed 10x more cards in 2018 than 2015.

[sthoemke]

I wish Costco still sold cards.

I remember in 1991 they had a full pallet of hockey card boxes for sale.

[mindcycle]

They made billions of 1992 Donruss cards. It's one of the first products that had serial numbered cards which were limited to 5,000, 7,500, and 10,000. People doing research who opened them by the case said they fell about 1 card per 1-3 cases. That puts the print run in the millions per player and billions total for the product. And that doesn't include jumbo packs, rack packs, or factory sets.

That’s all well and good, but what are the numbers for basketball? I’m sure there was also tons and tons of 92 bball cards printed as well, being Shaq’s rookie season, but I don’t think a single bball release comes close the the same level as 92 Donruss baseball.

[RogerGodahell]

No i don't think 92 basketball cards were printed the same amount as baseball. Basketball cards were starting to get popular but they weren't anywhere close to being as popular as baseball cards at the time.

[vegetable]

Just wait till the Fanatics years .... when you OVER PROMISE (offering a deal 18x to the MLB of what Topps was giving them.) Then you have to OVER DELIVER ... to get that ROI.

wait till we get nostalgic over 2020 and 2021 print runs being small

lolololololol

[mindcycle]

No i don't think 92 basketball cards were printed the same amount as baseball. Basketball cards were starting to get popular but they weren't anywhere close to being as popular as baseball cards at the time.

Ok I figured man, just wanted to make sure, lol

[Hoopscardz83]

I agree with a lot of what's being said on here. Do you guys really remember the late 80s and early 90's? We're not even close to those print runs. I was buying packs everywhere and anywhere. When something was out of stock at Rite Aid? I would get a rain check at like 13 years old, and they would order it for you. That is not happening at all these days folks, or Target.com wouldn't have bots taking all the good stuff.

Yes print runs are higher, but what do you expect? We had Prizm packs in clearance bins for years. The amount of people is up like 100%. Supply is nowhere near demand.

People who cry about print runs, are the same who cry when they can't score retail. What do you want?

[brettmik59]

I have an amazing Kevin Maas, Brien Taylor, and Christian Laettner collection from my youth. All sitting in yellowed toploaders from the 90's.

yellowed toploaders... the essence of years gone by

[pachyderm]

Not as many as there are Tyler Herro, RJ Barrett, Keldon Johnson, etc. I've been saying this for a while, but that backlog is full of JUNK. Everyone looking at the number of Zion bass Prizms expecting that number to jump aren't thinking logically. The majority of Zion and Luka base got graded already and we're now in the midst of all the "submit everything" bulk subs.

There's still a ton of Zion coming through in the form of Mosaic & Chronicles, but I think the biggest bumps are going to be in those secondary guys that everyone didn't submit initially, but once they saw everything going crazy in November through February, started sending in $5 cards just for the hell of it. I mean, I just got back a sub that had a bunch of Zion & Ja paper Hoops, and base Prizms of Keldon & Cameron Johnson, Bazley, etc.

PSA CTD puts us in December right now, it's kind of hard to remember what was hot at that time but I think that's when people started kicking over to "vintage", and stuff like Shaq or other 90s star rookies, and common Jordans? I received a data set from Gemrate that I haven't had time to go through yet, but my guess is that if I chart everything out, the higher value stuff like Zion & Ja base Prizm or decent parallels from any set, will trend down, and cheap / junk cards are trending up. Good luck with the fire sales of Bol Bol base mosaics.

The limit for declared value for the value service prior to March 1 was only $200. Therefore, the backlog should be mostly cards that are under $200. People probably submitted their higher value cards to the higher service levels which are already done.

[Kobe101]

Exponential growth at its finest!

2015 - 51,331 PSA cards graded
2016 - 92,851 PSA cards graded
2017 - 230,269 PSA cards graded
2018 - 562,882 PSA cards graded
2019 - 1,313,166 PSA cards graded

https://www.psacard.com/pop/basketball-cards/20019

Wow! And I bet 2020 would have been higher if the prices didn't change.

I collect Panini case hit inserts and I have been staying away from most 2019-20 or 2020-21 case hits. There are so many more of them available for sale at all times and people expect more money because the boxes are so expensive.

[Moderncards]

Are we in 1989 all over again

Quick answer: No.

Long answer: No, we are not.

[Kobefan]

The correct answer is that you won’t know till the market crashes. Everybody have their own opinions, some are genuine, some have an agenda to promote.

[buddycunningham]

Never have I found basketball cards at dollar general until tonight... This may be a sign.. odd thing is, I got an upperdeck game used jersey card loose in one of my blisters...https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20210904/831dd70bdf0a8b0b8dc64ae1e5c92ae2.jpg

Sent from my Pixel 3a using Tapatalk

[codered]

For those that are saying you can’t find cards every where like 89 remember there was no online market in 89. Think of all the wax that gets gobbled up by bots, online retailers and group breaks....now imagine all of that product on shelves.

It’s not hard to imagine there is 3 million plus various Zion cards (base, inserts, parallels etc.) from his rookie year. PSA alone has graded 36,000 prizm #248 cards in different variations. If every product averaged out to just over 85,000 printed zions (some will be more some less) at 35 products that’s close to 3,000,000. I wouldn’t be surprised if the number was higher over all. That’s very close to 89 numbers (just on sheer volume). Obviously the difference is different parallels and sp’ed inserts will demand different $$$ years down the road.

To quote a classic 80’s movie “different but same”

[drobfan8]

For those that are saying you can’t find cards every where like 89 remember there was no online market in 89. Think of all the wax that gets gobbled up by bots, online retailers and group breaks....now imagine all of that product on shelves.

It’s not hard to imagine there is 3 million plus various Zion cards (base, inserts, parallels etc.) from his rookie year. PSA alone has graded 36,000 prizm #248 cards in different variations. If every product averaged out to just over 85,000 printed zions (some will be more some less) at 35 products that’s close to 3,000,000. I wouldn’t be surprised if the number was higher over all. That’s very close to 89 numbers (just on sheer volume). Obviously the difference is different parallels and sp’ed inserts will demand different $$$ years down the road.

To quote a classic 80’s movie “different but same”

Disagree

Our entire school was trading bball cards. Hell kids were even collecting Baseball and Ice Hockey! In Australia.

We're also kinda forgetting the population of the world has grown a lot also

[Hoopscardz83]

For those that are saying you can’t find cards every where like 89 remember there was no online market in 89. Think of all the wax that gets gobbled up by bots, online retailers and group breaks....now imagine all of that product on shelves.

It’s not hard to imagine there is 3 million plus various Zion cards (base, inserts, parallels etc.) from his rookie year. PSA alone has graded 36,000 prizm #248 cards in different variations. If every product averaged out to just over 85,000 printed zions (some will be more some less) at 35 products that’s close to 3,000,000. I wouldn’t be surprised if the number was higher over all. That’s very close to 89 numbers (just on sheer volume). Obviously the difference is different parallels and sp’ed inserts will demand different $$$ years down the road.

To quote a classic 80’s movie “different but same”

I disagree with this big time. Forgot to mention in my orher post. You could order cards off of the old Sears and Jcpenny Christmas catalogs. Also home shopping nerwork. They printed to the amount that was ordered, and then some.

[ninjacookies]

Found Chronicles blasters tucked away in the back of a Victorias Secret in Vallejo last night.


Walked out with 3 and a sheer camisole set.

[k13]

For those that are saying you can’t find cards every where like 89 remember there was no online market in 89. Think of all the wax that gets gobbled up by bots, online retailers and group breaks....now imagine all of that product on shelves.

It’s not hard to imagine there is 3 million plus various Zion cards (base, inserts, parallels etc.) from his rookie year. PSA alone has graded 36,000 prizm #248 cards in different variations. If every product averaged out to just over 85,000 printed zions (some will be more some less) at 35 products that’s close to 3,000,000. I wouldn’t be surprised if the number was higher over all. That’s very close to 89 numbers (just on sheer volume). Obviously the difference is different parallels and sp’ed inserts will demand different $$$ years down the road.

To quote a classic 80’s movie “different but same”

Most products are not printed as much as prizm and/or don't have retail.

Plus this is nothing new every sport every year has had 30+ products.

[RogerGodahell]

We're also kinda forgetting the population of the world has grown a lot also

By about 50%, or roughly 2.5 billion.

[Vintage Collector]

Will there be 100,000 people looking for a zion rookie in 20 years. Probably yes.

Plus how many of us have more than one card.
So do 10,000 people or less own all cards the

Not sure but collect what you like and you can't go wrong.

[k13]

Will there be 100,000 people looking for a zion rookie in 20 years. Probably yes.



There's not even a 100 000 people looking for a Jordan RC.

[discodanman45]

Will there be 100,000 people looking for a zion rookie in 20 years. Probably yes.

Plus how many of us have more than one card.
So do 10,000 people or less own all cards the

Not sure but collect what you like and you can't go wrong.

I would say the chances of people looking for a Zion rookie 20 years from now are much less than that. Short term Zion is less risky for flipping. However, the chances of him becoming the next Shaq, Duncan, etc... is pretty low. There are not 100,000 people looking for Alonzo Mourning rookies and he was dominant his first 8 years in the league. I know 27 points per game is impressive for his second year, but this is not the same league it was 20 years ago. 43 players averaged more than 20 pts a game this past season. Karl Malone's rookie in a PSA 9 with a low pop report is under $700 now in a very collectible set. What are the chances of Zion being mentioned in the same breathe as the Mailman in 20 years? I would say about 1%.

If Zion is a top 10 HOF type player than his cards may go up in the future. The market is what it is right now and people desire his cards. If you want one in a certain grade, you will have to pay. I know what happened in the early 1990's and how much gambling is in current cards. I don't see the market for Zion increasing very much. People in modern day collecting move on very quickly to the next big and shiny thing. These graded pop reports will continue to grow. Unless there is more collectors joining than Zion's being returned from the massive backlog of PSA, prices will continue to fall.

[callou2131]

They are printing the crap out of these cards. My walmart On Friday got another shipment of prizm basketball. Cellos and hangers. We have consistently gotten Prizm since release date.

[Hoopscardz83]

Found Chronicles blasters tucked away in the back of a Victorias Secret in Vallejo last night.


Walked out with 3 and a sheer camisole set.

Now you make sense. Your from Vallejo.

[mcgee2134]

With pack prices as high as they are right now I really wonder how the print runs on these supposed limited edition rookies are...I was a collector during the junk wax era and there are a few similarities people seem to have forgotten. Everybody keeps saying that these are extremely limited and you cant find them anywhere and when they do there are lines of people buying all of them. I remember in 1989 and 1990 going to Costco and literally people leaving with pallets of cards. I remember being told to hold onto these cards because they would be valuable in the future, they were limited. But they were limited only because people were hoarding them. ( SOUND FAMILIAR) I really would like to know how many 1989 Griffey rookies were produced between all the brands, and compare that to how many Zion Rookies were produced. I bet there were more Zions. Just my take on things now as I sit back and watch.

I NEVER had trouble finding wax when I was a kid buying from 1987-1992. Even Upper Deck were everywhere, could get them at the grocery store.

[BasketBawlers]

Why aren't there standard limits to new card purchases yet? The supply and demand of the entire hobby is left to a just few hoarders who happen to show up first in line at Costco or Target. Never made sense to me.

Why doesn't panini at least sell direct-to-consumers online, and limit the amount of purchases per customer? Getting tired of buying small booster boxes for the price of what should be a full-sized hobby box.

[drobfan8]

Why aren't there standard limits to new card purchases yet? The supply and demand of the entire hobby is left to a just few hoarders who happen to show up first in line at Costco or Target. Never made sense to me.

Why doesn't panini at least sell direct-to-consumers online, and limit the amount of purchases per customer? Getting tired of buying small booster boxes for the price of what should be a full-sized hobby box.

Agreed.

Pump the Retail out. Even in other Countries. I should be able to walk in to an entire Shopping Centre and be able to find at least something, somewhere. Our entire State sells out in 20 seconds and that's pretty much that.

Then it's 3 x the price at some new Hobby store. Great to see bricks and mortar stores popping up again but jeesuz they're price.

Hobby box prices are just laughable to me. But I'm poor.

[ConcordXI]

Why doesn't panini at least sell direct-to-consumers online, and limit the amount of purchases per customer? Getting tired of buying small booster boxes for the price of what should be a full-sized hobby box.

This is the part that has never made sense to me. The only possible explanation I can think of is that Excell, MJ Holdings, and the other distributors have some sort of exclusivity clause in their agreements similar to what T-Mall does for the markets in Asia that limit Panini from directly selling the distributor's SKUs (though at various points over the years Panini has sold some retail products directly so that undermines that explanation).

Even so, there is absolutely no reason for Panini to not make a Mega Box version for their own website. Put 30 base and 10 pink wave/red pulsar/whatever cards in there and print to order. It just seems so simple, it's bizarre they don't have some version of their product to put on there.

[Hoopscardz83]

I think the point of all of us?? You need to get cards in everyone's hands. You can do this easily without messing up card values. Right now baseball doesn't have an issue, and for the most part you can find some kind of Football product.

Right now you have zero basketball products that sit on Target.com or in a walmart. Everything is botted on Target or shelf cleared everywhere else.

There are so many ways to print more product without messing up the hobby. The kids crate by panini is a joke for that demographic. No basketball in the crate.

Pre orders and print to order should be a thing on some product. Not prizm, not optic, but find some other stuff out there.

As for the people talking about Prizm. They must be new. Prizm last year was released in store with like 4 full trays. This time? Walmart trickled prizm, because panini has no basketball released until late August. Prizm was a slow trickle for the 4 month dry spell of other stuff.

[ninjacookies]

Now you make sense. Your from Vallejo.

https://c.tenor.com/9TbC57zWA80AAAAM/whats-that-suppose-to-mean-what-are-you-trying-to-say.gif

[mc1]

Why doesn't panini at least sell direct-to-consumers online, and limit the amount of purchases per customer? Getting tired of buying small booster boxes for the price of what should be a full-sized hobby box.

They already do. Via dutch auction or at inflated prices similar to BO.

[Steve88]

junk.slab.era. Flippers should be receiving their mountains of base PSA Bol Bol, Coby White and Tyler Herro right about now