Are we in 1989 all over again

[rogueriver]

With pack prices as high as they are right now I really wonder how the print runs on these supposed limited edition rookies are...I was a collector during the junk wax era and there are a few similarities people seem to have forgotten. Everybody keeps saying that these are extremely limited and you cant find them anywhere and when they do there are lines of people buying all of them. I remember in 1989 and 1990 going to Costco and literally people leaving with pallets of cards. I remember being told to hold onto these cards because they would be valuable in the future, they were limited. But they were limited only because people were hoarding them. ( SOUND FAMILIAR) I really would like to know how many 1989 Griffey rookies were produced between all the brands, and compare that to how many Zion Rookies were produced. I bet there were more Zions. Just my take on things now as I sit back and watch.

[SGC300ier]

I'm listening....

Sent from my SM-G991U using Tapatalk

[dcarado]

HOT TAKE

[mc1]

There are probably 100,000 base Zions RCs for Mosaic, Hoops and Prizm.

[IlliniBear]

There have been 82,282copies of the 1989 Upper Deck Ken Griffey Jr. graded by PSA.

https://www.psacard.com/pop/baseball...per-deck/52298

There have been 11,452 copies of Juan Soto's 2018 Topps Chrome Base card graded by PSA if I'm reading the chart right.

https://www.psacard.com/pop/baseball...-update/161591

His 2018 Update flagship base has been graded 27,063 times.

I think they are printing too many cards, however, I also don't think it's possible to truly appreciate how many cards they printed in the junk wax era.

I also don't think there is nearly as much unripped wax from modern times but perhaps there is info that would debunk it.

[mc1]

Theres also over 100,000 Hoops Premium Zion base.

Id say theres a million or two 89 UD Griffeys.

[88horsepower]

Originally Posted by mc1

Theres also over 100,000 Hoops Premium Zion base.

Id say theres a million or two 89 UD Griffeys.

While true, the Griffey is an iconic card of a HOF'er and the Zion is just one of hundreds of thousands of base of a player who has potential to be great. I keep thinking of how Shaq is literally one of the 10-20 greatest NBA players of all-time and his rookies are relatively cheap even in Gem condition. The demand just isn't there like it is for an 89 Griffey UD, which is a Mt. Rushmore type of card for that era.

[mindcycle]

If we’re comparing bball only, I’d say 19-20 Zion hype is probably more comparable to 1992-93 Shaq hype. Production and number of sets had been steadily climbing upwards since the mid 80’s, then largely peaked with Shaq’s rookie card hype where everyone thought they’d retire on base Upper Deck RC’s. The industry held on a few more years with large production numbers and interest, then faded out by the late 90’s. I see the same pattern happening now.

[gomiamigo]

They actually printed 2mm Griffeys.

[dthimesch]

Originally Posted by rogueriver

With pack prices as high as they are right now I really wonder how the print runs on these supposed limited edition rookies are...I was a collector during the junk wax era and there are a few similarities people seem to have forgotten. Everybody keeps saying that these are extremely limited and you cant find them anywhere and when they do there are lines of people buying all of them. I remember in 1989 and 1990 going to Costco and literally people leaving with pallets of cards. I remember being told to hold onto these cards because they would be valuable in the future, they were limited. But they were limited only because people were hoarding them. ( SOUND FAMILIAR) I really would like to know how many 1989 Griffey rookies were produced between all the brands, and compare that to how many Zion Rookies were produced. I bet there were more Zions. Just my take on things now as I sit back and watch.

Hoarding sounds familiar sure.

But no one is leaving Costco with pallets of cards. That should tell you how much was printed back then compared to now.

[YeahBuddy]

Just wait till the Fanatics years .... when you OVER PROMISE (offering a deal 18x to the MLB of what Topps was giving them.) Then you have to OVER DELIVER ... to get that ROI.

[Ferg1945]

Originally Posted by rogueriver

With pack prices as high as they are right now I really wonder how the print runs on these supposed limited edition rookies are...I was a collector during the junk wax era and there are a few similarities people seem to have forgotten. Everybody keeps saying that these are extremely limited and you cant find them anywhere and when they do there are lines of people buying all of them. I remember in 1989 and 1990 going to Costco and literally people leaving with pallets of cards. I remember being told to hold onto these cards because they would be valuable in the future, they were limited. But they were limited only because people were hoarding them. ( SOUND FAMILIAR) I really would like to know how many 1989 Griffey rookies were produced between all the brands, and compare that to how many Zion Rookies were produced. I bet there were more Zions. Just my take on things now as I sit back and watch.

Hold the limited, low POP stuff.

Base likely won't hold much long term value

[Cavaliercards]

No because the dynamics of the hobby have vastly changed

[Moderncards]

Originally Posted by Ferg1945

Hold the limited, low POP stuff.

Base likely won't hold much long term value

I agree with this, If it is #/ed you know how many were made. Base is basic.

[Nomad]

If Fanatics is paying 18x Topps and the switchover is a couple years out, I predict it never happens. I wonder what their escape clause is?

[AnthonyT]

I think print runs are lower than they were in the 90's, but I would not be surprised if print runs are half of what they were, when you consider every variant, parallel, subset, subset parallel variant, autos, numbered, etc, etc across all the different products. In 1989, there are 4 different Griffey rookies. One from Topps, Upper Deck, Fleer and Score. In 2018, across all brands and sets, there are something like 1800 unique Ohtani rookies.

While I believe there are less cards being printed today overall, there is still the illusion of scarcity by having the same card printing with a color tint to set it apart from its base card, and doing that 20 times, each with a different print run. How many are available for sale at any given moment helps determine the demand and scarcity.

Currently, with computer printing and cutting, you are getting a perfect-near perfect card every time. Contrast that with the 90's and earlier, where this was more problematic and imprecise, then I think it begins to balance out when people are searching for perfect examples of the card. There are 12k Topps Traded Griffey PSA 10's and they run about $175, while there are 18k Soto Update PSA 10's and they run about $140.

[pachyderm]

Originally Posted by mc1

There are probably 100,000 base Zions RCs for Mosaic, Hoops and Prizm.

There are already close to 240,000 Zion cards graded by PSA according to gemmint.com and the majority of that is from 2019. Who knows how many ungraded are out there.

[Scottish Punk]

Originally Posted by AnthonyT

I think print runs are lower than they were in the 90's, but I would not be surprised if print runs are half of what they were, when you consider every variant, parallel, subset, subset parallel variant, autos, numbered, etc, etc across all the different products. In 1989, there are 4 different Griffey rookies. One from Topps, Upper Deck, Fleer and Score. In 2018, across all brands and sets, there are something like 1800 unique Ohtani rookies.

While I believe there are less cards being printed today overall, there is still the illusion of scarcity by having the same card printing with a color tint to set it apart from its base card, and doing that 20 times, each with a different print run. How many are available for sale at any given moment helps determine the demand and scarcity.

This is the key point, imo. Yes companies are not printing 1988 donruss levels of cards, but I believe we are still printing well over any long term type demand. How many 2018 Soto Topps flagship are out there when adding up all the different parallels? Double that number for the Chrome versions?

With all the different brand names under Topps, there is just a absolute ton of each rookie available now. It just feels like more cause you can buy 100 different Soto RCs compared to 5 and your done on Griffey Jr. If you say 1 million each for total of 5 million griffey RCs. in circulation. How many Soto cards in circulation among all the brands - 1 million? 40 sets at just an average of 25k per set gets you to a million. That doesn't seem like much of a stretch.

I don't think we will ever get to a the late 80's point of printing. How does the current printing compare to say early 80's or late 70's. None of that is considered "rare" and 70's is just one set.

[discodanman45]

With Topps and Panini losing their licenses to Fanatics, we will see printing rivaling the junk wax era once again. Why would they care to keep supply low for the health of the hobby? They will print and print now until people won't buy. It will get much worse unless fanatics comes in and buys these companies.

[mc1]

Originally Posted by pachyderm

There are already close to 240,000 Zion cards graded by PSA according to gemmint.com and the majority of that is from 2019. Who knows how many ungraded are out there.

I meant 100k for each of those products.

[Arianny_Fan]

I wish Costco still sold cards.

[tjforce]

If you are spending your money on the overproduced base stuff, then don't expect to be rich of of it 20 years from now.

There is plenty of rare stuff to chase that has been killing it in this market recently and will continue to

[JeremyNick]

Yes. It is.

They are printing to the moon and people are buying like it’s the end of the world. We likely have about 12-18 months left before a crash.

[discodanman45]

Originally Posted by JeremyNick

Yes. It is.

They are printing to the moon and people are buying like it’s the end of the world. We likely have about 12-18 months left before a crash.

I don't think a crash will happen, but a definite correction in cards produced the last few years. Most cards, even prizm the last two years, will not be worth the PSA holder they are in. The junk slab era is real and we will be seeing $1 PSA slab bins at card shows in the next few years.

[jbball50]

Originally Posted by Arianny_Fan

I wish Costco still sold cards.

Yeah you might be able to actually get a box because they’d limit them like toilet paper.