Will we see any current active players get 500 HR or 3000 Hits?

[SleepyWill]

Are any active players in your mind going to hit these two massive career milestones?

If so, who?

[rats60]

At least one of Stanton, Machado, Harper or Judge will hit 500 HRs. I don't think anyone is getting 3000 hits anytime soon. The game values HRs and not hits/high batting average today.

[carlo16]

Freddie Freeman might have a shot at 3000

[JohnnyHatesJazz]

Juan Soto has a shot at 500.

[whitmm]

Freddie Freeman might have a shot at 3000

If you're counting Freeman, then you have to include Altuve. Altuve is only 35 hits behind Freeman and half a year younger.

We're talking 150 hits a season. for 5 more years.

Soto is only 26. Can he hit 30 hrs a year for the next 10? Matt Olson is only 30 and has average 39 hrs a season with Atlanta. The only seasons he's hit less than 25 were 2017 (24 hrs in 59 games) and the 2020 season.

There's some of the younger guys that could do it as well. Gunnar Henderson is at 69 hrs and he'll be turning 24 this season. Witt is at 82 and he's turning 25.

[TBTC Baseball]

Soto (122 hits) and Guerrero (97 hits) were ahead of the average pace of a 3K clubber (excluding Ichiro).
Machado was 6 hits less.
Freeman was 142 hits less.
Altuve was 184 hits less.

I'd put my money on Freeman out of all of them.

[SleepyWill]

If you're counting Freeman, then you have to include Altuve. Altuve is only 35 hits behind Freeman and half a year younger.

We're talking 150 hits a season. for 5 more years.

Soto is only 26. Can he hit 30 hrs a year for the next 10? Matt Olson is only 30 and has average 39 hrs a season with Atlanta. The only seasons he's hit less than 25 were 2017 (24 hrs in 59 games) and the 2020 season.

There's some of the younger guys that could do it as well. Gunnar Henderson is at 69 hrs and he'll be turning 24 this season. Witt is at 82 and he's turning 25.

Aaron Judge is 7 years older than Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and only leading him in career hits by 100.

[JMStang]

Jose Ramirez is 31 and exactly half way to both. Fransisco Lindor would be another one to watch.


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[whitmm]

Aaron Judge is 7 years older than Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and only leading him in career hits by 100.

Okay? I didn't say anything about either one of them.

[whitmm]

Arraez could be on that list of 3,000 hits potential. Assuming he could find a team to give him consistent ABs until he's 40

[hammertime]

Ohtani has a decent chance at 500.

[Centauri3]

Altuve and Freeman both seem likely to 3,000. I think 3-4 current players will hit 500 - Judge and Soto. Ohtani.

[LittleJimmies]

On the far too early to really tell front, Bobby Witt Jr. Is one I could see doing either or both. The ability is there and I think his overall makeup (both skills and physical ability) could lead to him playing for a very long time.

[rms13]

Altuve and Freeman both seem likely to 3,000. I think 3-4 current players will hit 500 - Judge and Soto. Ohtani.

Judge has 315 HR, he'll be 33 in April and he can't stay healthy so that's a long shot. Ohtani is 30 and has 225 HR. He also has trouble staying healthy but if he eventually becomes a full time DH he may be able to get there. Soto probably has the best chance but now he's playing home games Citi field which is a downgrade for HRs compared to the other 3 home parks he's played in.

[Skipscards]

We will definitely see more 500 HR and 3,000 Hit Club members.


Freddie Freeman might have a shot at 3000

If you're counting Freeman, then you have to include Altuve. Altuve is only 35 hits behind Freeman and half a year younger.

We're talking 150 hits a season. for 5 more years.



Definitely two as likely as anyone. Freeman currently projects as having a 48% chance and Altuve projects at 42%.

[whitmm]

Judge has 315 HR, he'll be 33 in April and he can't stay healthy so that's a long shot. Ohtani is 30 and has 225 HR. He also has trouble staying healthy but if he eventually becomes a full time DH he may be able to get there. Soto probably has the best chance but now he's playing home games Citi field which is a downgrade for HRs compared to the other 3 home parks he's played in.

Aaron Judge has played over 100 games in each of his full seasons (excluding the 2020 season). He hit 37 hrs in 106 games in 2023 and has averaged 49 per season over that last 4 years.

Ohtani has accumulated 600+ PAs in the last 4 seasons and has averaged 45 homers a season.

I'm not buying the "can't stay healthy" argument for either one of them.

[rfgilles]

Ohtani has a decent chance at 500.

He would have to average 37.5 homeruns for the next 10 years (39 years of age). He started late and slow for 500.

[Skipscards]

Judge has 315 HR, he'll be 33 in April and he can't stay healthy so that's a long shot. Ohtani is 30 and has 225 HR. He also has trouble staying healthy but if he eventually becomes a full time DH he may be able to get there. Soto probably has the best chance but now he's playing home games Citi field which is a downgrade for HRs compared to the other 3 home parks he's played in.

He's stayed plenty healthy. He's played in 148+ games in 3 of his last 4 seasons and is the 2nd most prodigious HR hitter in history behind only McGwire.

Judge projects as having a 90% chance at 500 HRs. The question isn't whether he'll get to 500; it's will he get to 600 or 700? He has a 41% chance at 600 and 17% chance at 700.

He even has a measurable shot at Bonds...8%

[JAM061200]

If he keeps the trend of his hitting going, I can see Bobby Witt Jr reaching 3000 hits by the end of his career.

[mfw13]

Judge has 315 HR, he'll be 33 in April and he can't stay healthy so that's a long shot. Ohtani is 30 and has 225 HR. He also has trouble staying healthy but if he eventually becomes a full time DH he may be able to get there.

This is where the long term contracts come into play. You saw Pujols and Miggy play way long after they stopped being effective players simply because they were under contract.

Judge is under contract for seven more seasons, and is 185 HR short of 500....so he's going to have to average about 26 HR a season until the end of the contract, which I don't think he will have trouble doing. And given that he can become a full-time DH once injuries start becoming an issue, I think he'll finish closer to 600 than 500.

Ohtani is already a full-time DH, and has nine more season to hit 275 home runs....that would mean averaging about 30 a year, which is eminently doable given that he's averaged 44 a year over the past four seasons.

Stanton needs 71 more and is under contract for three more seasons (with a team option for a fourth)....he's averaged 29 homers a season for the past four years, so seems likely to make it given that he only needs to average 24 a year for the next three years of his contract.

Trout is a 122 short and has six seasons remaining on his contract. If he moves to DH and stays healthier, he should make it, as he only needs to average 20 a year.

Harper is 164 HR short and has seven years left on his contract, meaning that he will need to average about 23-24 HR a season. Even with all his injuries, he's average about 26 a year over the past four seasons, has not moved to 1B, and will eventually become a DH.

Machado is 158 HR short and has nine more seasons on his contract. He's averaged about 30 HR a season over the past four seasons, so should make it with several years to spare.

Freeman has an outside shot at 3000 hits, but tailed off last year and is only under contract for three more seasons, at which point he'll be somewhere between 2700-2800 hits. If he's become Paul Goldschmidt by then, he may not get the playing time needed to get to 3000.

[hammertime]

He would have to average 37.5 homeruns for the next 10 years (39 years of age). He started late and slow for 500.

Recheck your math. He has 225, he needs 275.

[Nostalgia]

Juan Soto has a shot at 500.

Maybe if he stayed in the Bronx.

[rfgilles]

Recheck your math. He has 225, he needs 275.

Oops. My bad. I would tend to agree he has a solid shot.

[Tom Oates]

At least one of Stanton, Machado, Harper or Judge will hit 500 HRs. I don't think anyone is getting 3000 hits anytime soon. The game values HRs and not hits/high batting average today.

Stanton is injured again. Double tennis elbow and is not swinging a bat yet in spring training. As many have stated previously on this board, he just can't stay healthy to live up to his full potential. Might still get to 500 but it's not a gimme.

[Nostalgia]

IF Judge stays relatively healthy, there is no reason to think he wont hit a 40+ homeruns the next 4. That gets him to 475 with only 40 a year.

[f2tornado]

Freeman (2267) and Altuve (2232) are both about 4 seasons away from 3k hits if they don't tail off from current production. Nobody else is even in that ballpark. Both are 34 which means it's no lock but think either could linger around long enough to get there.

Stanton and Trout are closest to 500 HRs. Both young enough to get there but both with obstacles. Stanton can't hit anything else and Trout hasn't been on the field most days the last several seasons. Goldschmidt has a non-zero chance. Not promising with his age and tailing off last season but pinstripes batting order may help. Freeman a little better chance but would likely need to linger for another 6-7 years or start pounding them like in the WS to make it sooner. Machado has a couple years advantage on age and also has a little more power stroke. He would get there in about 5 seasons on current pace. Harper in similar boat, maybe 6 seasons. Judge isn't far behind and will seemingly catch up if he stays healthy. Schwarber could conceivably get there in six seasons if he keeps the power going. He's young enough yet. I'll give Suarez a non-zero yet very small chance as he would need to stay consistent until he's 40 or find a little more power between now and then. Tall order. Betts will have ample opportunity in the LAD lineup and could get there in around 7 seasons. He does seem like the type that will age well. Jose Ramirez has some catching up to do but if mashes like he did last season then will do just that.

Everyone else is under 250 HRs. For those over 200: Lindor would need longevity and Ohtani will need to keep being Ohtani for a while. Soto is a strong candidate is he keeps doing what he's been doing. Devers can get there is he maintains his consistency over the next decade. I don't want to speculate much on anyone under 200. It's going to be hard enough for most on pace with over 200 to get there.

[Skipscards]

On the far too early to really tell front, Bobby Witt Jr. Is one I could see doing either or both. The ability is there and I think his overall makeup (both skills and physical ability) could lead to him playing for a very long time.

Bobby is a bit of a long shot, but does have a measurable chance at both. Would love to see it, but I'd settle for either. :)!

500 HRs: 13% chance
3,000 Hits: 19% chance

[Skipscards]

Ohtani has a decent chance at 500.

Ohtani has a 53% chance at 500. I would call that reasonable. If he hits another 50 this season, he'd jump to 73%.

Though based on his track record, we can assume he'll hit 64 this year, right?

[LittleJimmies]

Bobby is a bit of a long shot, but does have a measurable chance at both. Would love to see it, but I'd settle for either. :)!

500 HRs: 13% chance
3,000 Hits: 19% chance

Where do those %'s come from? Figured Baseball Savant, but couldn't find them. Would love to look around at different players.

[whitmm]

The question was does any active player have a chance? The answer is yes. I know it's so much easier to look at players that have been around a while. But there are plenty of guys under 25 that could put up numbers for the next 15-18 years to get there. If you want to put a cut off of around 40.

Julio Rodriguez is at 80 hrs. 27 HR for the next 16 years gets him there. EDLC needs to average the same amount over the next 17 years. Vlad Jr needs 23 a season over the next 15 season. Could Michael Harris average 28 homers over the next 16 seasons? Absolutely. Could Tovar do the same thing playing in Colorado for the next 17 seasons? Yup.

[ClevelandIC]

Where do those %'s come from? Figured Baseball Savant, but couldn't find them. Would love to look around at different players.

Same question, I fear if I'm told the answer I will lose a day of work though.

[towerymt]

Yes to all three. 500 HR, 3000 hits, 3000 strikeouts.

[eye4talent]

A 34-year-old (going into his age-35 season) with 2200+ hits is in pretty good position to reach 3000. If Altuve can get to 2400 by the end of this season, it should be smooth sailing.

Freeman has a decent chance, too.

And Manny Machado is in great shape with 1900 hits at age 32.

Keep in mind that most players are around 40 when they reach 3000 hits, so it largely depends on how long these guys can stick with it.

It’s harder to predict younger guys with around 1000 hits, but someone from the Vlad/Soto/Acuna generation is likely to keep pace.


For home runs…

Stanton
Trout
Machado
Harper
Judge
Schwarber
Olson
Ohtani
Soto
Devers
Yordan
Acuna
Guerrero

…are all possibilities—health permitting. Not everyone on this group will make it, but a list of 13 candidates should net one or more 500-HR career(s).

Mookie has an outside shot at both, but I don’t see him reaching either.

Watch out for Jose Ramirez reaching 400/400.


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[rms13]

Yes to all three. 500 HR, 3000 hits, 3000 strikeouts.

Kershaw should get to 3000K Cole (2251) 34 years old and Sale (2414) 35 years old are the next guys you can start to talk about. I definitely don't think Sale can stay healthy enough to get to 3000. Cole has a better chance but I still doubt he gets there. After that I don't think there is really any active pitchers you could project to get to 3000 other then maybe Skenes. With pitchers throwing fewer innings and more teams going toward 6 man rotation it's going to be hard for guys to get to 3k

[whitmm]

Kershaw should get to 3000K Cole (2251) 34 years old and Sale (2414) 35 years old are the next guys you can start to talk about. I definitely don't think Sale can stay healthy enough to get to 3000. Cole has a better chance but I still doubt he gets there. After that I don't think there is really any active pitchers you could project to get to 3000 other then maybe Skenes. With pitchers throwing fewer innings and more teams going toward 6 man rotation it's going to be hard for guys to get to 3k

Sale is another guy that gets the incorrect "can't stay healthy" tag. The whole reason he's in the conversation is because of his health.

Can he throw 150 innings a season 4 more times? For sure. And maybe it's only 3 more seasons. He's a guy that averages more than 1 k/inning. Put him on a 6 man rotation schedule. He average just under 8 strikeouts per start in 2024. That's only 74 more starts to get there.

Why is just Skenes? Dylan Cease has averaged 32.5 starts and 222 Ks per season over the last 4 seasons. He just turned 29. Logan Gilbert would need to average 177 over the next 13 seasons to get there. Freddy Peralta is another 200 k/season pitcher with 950 career strikeouts and is under 30. Jack Flaherty, if he can stay healthy, is right in that same boat as Peralta.

There were 11 pitchers that reached 200 strikeouts in 2024. And 22 that reached 180. Those are the yearly numbers you'd need to average to hit 3,000 in 15-17 seasons.

[rms13]

Sale is another guy that gets the incorrect "can't stay healthy" tag. The whole reason he's in the conversation is because of his health.

Can he throw 150 innings a season 4 more times? For sure. And maybe it's only 3 more seasons. He's a guy that averages more than 1 k/inning. Put him on a 6 man rotation schedule. He average just under 8 strikeouts per start in 2024. That's only 74 more starts to get there.

Why is just Skenes? Dylan Cease has averaged 32.5 starts and 222 Ks per season over the last 4 seasons. He just turned 29. Logan Gilbert would need to average 177 over the next 13 seasons to get there. Freddy Peralta is another 200 k/season pitcher with 950 career strikeouts and is under 30. Jack Flaherty, if he can stay healthy, is right in that same boat as Peralta.

There were 11 pitchers that reached 200 strikeouts in 2024. And 22 that reached 180. Those are the yearly numbers you'd need to average to hit 3,000 in 15-17 seasons.

Sale pitched 31 games in his last 4 years in Boston. He had a major injury every year. And then he ended last year on the IL and missed the post season.

[whitmm]

Sale pitched 31 games in his last 4 years in Boston. He had a major injury every year. And then he ended last year on the IL and missed the post season.

Context matters.

2020: TJS. Plus it would have been a shortened season anyway.

2021: Recovering from 2020 TJS

2022: rib stress fracture during batting practice. Broken pinkie from a line drive. Broken wrist from a bicycle accident. To sum up, a bunch of fluke things.

2023: 20 starts. Some shoulder inflammation in the middle of the season, most likely from having not pitched for roughly 3 seasons.

2024: 29 starts. They also ran a 6 man rotation the majority of the year.

Yeah, it's really easy to skew stats when 2 seasons are missed for 1 injury (not counting the whole shortened season thing either). The arm wasn't the issue at the end of 2024. And he's averaged 24.5 starts per season the last two years.

[JohnnyHatesJazz]

I wonder what the odds are for Luis Arraez getting to 3000 hits.

[ThoseBackPages]

yes, absolutely

[JohnnyHatesJazz]

Maybe if he stayed in the Bronx.

Money over moonshots. Can't say I blame him.

Still has a good shot at 500 barring injury. He seems like the kind of guy who'll play in his early 40s. He loves baseball. Hopefully he stays healthy.

[ObanMontecristo]

If we’re looking at potential 3000K guys, Aaron Nola’s got a shot- he’s been pretty durable and puts up right around 200Ks or more every year. Sitting at 1779 at age 32

[Noles939913]

I wonder what the odds are for Luis Arraez getting to 3000 hits.

Not great considering not many people are going to want a slow DH with no power.

[Skipscards]

Where do those %'s come from? Figured Baseball Savant, but couldn't find them. Would love to look around at different players.

Same question, I fear if I'm told the answer I will lose a day of work though.

No problem. I’m using Bill James’ Favorite Toy. He published it in one of his old Abstract and I’ve studied it for years. It is uncannily accurate. :)

[Skipscards]

I wonder what the odds are for Luis Arraez getting to 3000 hits.

Arraez has an 18% chance.

[Skipscards]

Sale has a 51% chance at 3,000 Ks
Nola has a 42% chance.

[rms13]

Context matters.

2020: TJS. Plus it would have been a shortened season anyway.

2021: Recovering from 2020 TJS

2022: rib stress fracture during batting practice. Broken pinkie from a line drive. Broken wrist from a bicycle accident. To sum up, a bunch of fluke things.

2023: 20 starts. Some shoulder inflammation in the middle of the season, most likely from having not pitched for roughly 3 seasons.

2024: 29 starts. They also ran a 6 man rotation the majority of the year.

Yeah, it's really easy to skew stats when 2 seasons are missed for 1 injury (not counting the whole shortened season thing either). The arm wasn't the issue at the end of 2024. And he's averaged 24.5 starts per season the last two years.

You summed it up great. He's been hurt for the past 5 seasons. The idea of him having 3 more seasons of at least 150 ip seems as likely as Trout playing more then 100 games in a season at this point.

[rms13]

Not great considering not many people are going to want a slow DH with no power.

He's destined to be playing in Japan in a couple of years

[whitmm]

You summed it up great. He's been hurt for the past 5 seasons. The idea of him having 3 more seasons of at least 150 ip seems as likely as Trout playing more then 100 games in a season at this point.

You missed the whole point. You're trying to say he's had all these major issues, like they were related to pitching.

One injury cost him two seasons. And part of a third season due to having not pitched in three years.

A line drive and bike accident are fluke things. And he's not swinging a bat anymore. 2024 proved the arm issues are in the past. He's not even close to Mike Trout.

Again, 24.5 starts a year the last two years. Averaged 6+ innings in 29 starts last season. So yeah, 3 more seasons of 150 innings seems very plausible. GTFOH with focusing on an injury that happened nearly 5 years ago. I listened to this same BS all of last off season and most of the season, and he went out and won the CYA.

[49ersSF]

Just as important, Freddie Freeman is closing in on 1,000 extra-base hits. He currently is at 882. He would be just the 40th player of all-time to do so.

Freddie also currently has 508 double. Only 18 players have ever accomplished 600 doubles.

[Archangel1775]

Stanton is the closest and will get their first, especially with him only playing the 2nd half of every season and the playoffs until that nutty contract with the Yankees is up.

Giancarlo Stanton

Current Home Runs Career: 429

Age 35 Season in 2025: Under Contract
Age 36 Season in 2026: Under Contract
Age 37 Season in 2027: Under Contract
Age 38 Season in 2028: Club Option

Current HR Average Last 4 Years: 29.25
Current At-Bats Average Last 4 Years: 459

[Archangel1775]

After that its Machado,Harper and Trout in the running. The wild card could be Judge. The man could hit 150 the next 3 years.

[Noles939913]

He's destined to be playing in Japan in a couple of years

Yep. Years from now people will see how he batted something like .302 in his last MLB season and wonder how he ended up there. I do have some nice Arraez cards I probably need to sell after he wins his fourth consecutive batting title this season.

[Hollywood42]

If Luis Arraez is playing in Japan after his age 30 season I'll buy one of his game used hats and eat it. The discourse about him is reaching absolutely insane levels

And FWIW, no, I don't think he'll get 3,000

[ScooterD]

I like Machado to get 3,000 and 500 - just needs to stay healthy and not fall off a cliff at 36

[xDomePatrolx]

I keep seeing Matt Olson's name but not Pete Alonso?

Olsen is 8 months older than Pete with only 33 more HRs in 215 more games.

[discodanman45]

Freeman and Altuve will get there. I think it is important to both and if they need to play past 41 like the majority of players in the 3000 hit club, they will easily make it.

[whitmm]

If Luis Arraez is playing in Japan after his age 30 season I'll buy one of his game used hats and eat it. The discourse about him is reaching absolutely insane levels

And FWIW, no, I don't think he'll get 3,000

Japan by 30 is a bit crazy, but the rest of the discourse is very fair. He's one of the worst defensive players in the league. He's a terrible base runner. He doesn't hit for much power. His whole profile is that of someone who is not going to last 10-15 more seasons as an everyday starter.

[xDomePatrolx]

Luis Arraez will 180 hits a season for the next 12 years to reach 3000

I don't see it happening

[sauceboy]

Stanton will get to 500. Machado, Harper, Judge, and Ohtani have a good chance of doing so, too. I think 3,000 hits will be tough for any current player, though.

[Skipscards]

I like Machado to get 3,000 and 500 - just needs to stay healthy and not fall off a cliff at 36

Manny has a 28% chance at 3,000 hits.

I keep seeing Matt Olson's name but not Pete Alonso?

Olsen is 8 months older than Pete with only 33 more HRs in 215 more games.

Polar Bear has a 43% chance at 500 HRs.

[Noles939913]

If Luis Arraez is playing in Japan after his age 30 season I'll buy one of his game used hats and eat it. The discourse about him is reaching absolutely insane levels

And FWIW, no, I don't think he'll get 3,000

What about 35?

[TBTC Baseball]

Manny has a 28% chance at 3,000 hits.

This surprises me considering he is essentially on pace. Average hits for 3K member in 31 yo season is 1882, and he has 1900.

[mfw13]

The key factor is when a player's current contract expires....because they're guaranteed playing time only as long as their team is forced to pay them (like Miggy Cabrera and Pujols).

Miggy doesn't make it to 500 HR or 3000 hits if his contract was two years shorter.

[JohnnyHatesJazz]

Arraez has an 18% chance.

Interesting, thanks. I guess I'll hold off on his cards, lol.

[rms13]

The key factor is when a player's current contract expires....because they're guaranteed playing time only as long as their team is forced to pay them (like Miggy Cabrera and Pujols).

Miggy doesn't make it to 500 HR or 3000 hits if his contract was two years shorter.

You don't think the Marlins would have brought him back at the end on a cheap contract and let him get 3000 and 500 in a Marlins uni? They basically did the same with Ichiro and he didn't have any history with the Marlins. But my point is some team is going to sign these guys if they want to play on a cheap contract at the end of their career to pad their stats

[rms13]

You missed the whole point. You're trying to say he's had all these major issues, like they were related to pitching.

One injury cost him two seasons. And part of a third season due to having not pitched in three years.

A line drive and bike accident are fluke things. And he's not swinging a bat anymore. 2024 proved the arm issues are in the past. He's not even close to Mike Trout.

Again, 24.5 starts a year the last two years. Averaged 6+ innings in 29 starts last season. So yeah, 3 more seasons of 150 innings seems very plausible. GTFOH with focusing on an injury that happened nearly 5 years ago. I listened to this same BS all of last off season and most of the season, and he went out and won the CYA.

Fluke things that happen to a tall gangly injury prone guy. He's like JD Drew. Guys like that hurt themselves getting out of bed in the morning. Sale seems like a really nice guy and he pitches at a HOF level when healthy and I wish him well. I still don't think he'll have 3 more fully healthy seasons

[whitmm]

Fluke things that happen to a tall gangly injury prone guy. He's like JD Drew. Guys like that hurt themselves getting out of bed in the morning. Sale seems like a really nice guy and he pitches at a HOF level when healthy and I wish him well. I still don't think he'll have 3 more fully healthy seasons

Say all you did was looked at Sale's stat page without telling me all you did was looked at his stat page.

He hasn't been injury prone. That's the whole reason he's even being talked about. He had one injury that caused him to miss 2 seasons. He's other injuries include swinging a bat (pitchers no longer bat ever, so not an issue), a broken finger from a line drive (how often to pitchers get hit directly on the hand from line drives?) and bicycle accident (the most flukish thing ever).

He doesn't need 3 more fully healthy seasons, he needs 3 mostly healthy seasons. 25 starts, not 35 starts. Or 5 half healthy seasons.

If Charlie Morton and Justin Verlander can continue to find employment at age 41-42, Chris Sale will have no problem finding a team for the next 5-6 years.

[rms13]

Say all you did was looked at Sale's stat page without telling me all you did was looked at his stat page.

He hasn't been injury prone. That's the whole reason he's even being talked about. He had one injury that caused him to miss 2 seasons. He's other injuries include swinging a bat (pitchers no longer bat ever, so not an issue), a broken finger from a line drive (how often to pitchers get hit directly on the hand from line drives?) and bicycle accident (the most flukish thing ever).

He doesn't need 3 more fully healthy seasons, he needs 3 mostly healthy seasons. 25 starts, not 35 starts. Or 5 half healthy seasons.

If Charlie Morton and Justin Verlander can continue to find employment at age 41-42, Chris Sale will have no problem finding a team for the next 5-6 years.

I'm a Sox fan so I saw it all happen in real time for years.

[whitmm]

I'm a Sox fan so I saw it all happen in real time for years.

Then you would know what I'm saying is correct. Missing 2 years for 1 injury is not "injury prone." The 2022 season was filled with unlucky fluke injuries.

You sound like a better Sox fan that is upset because Grissom hasn't lived up to his potential and the trade looks so bad from the Boston side.

[lahmejoon1]

Stanton is already hurt. Tennis elbow in both elbows doesn't bode well for him, leading into the season.

[rfgilles]

Stanton will get to 500. Machado, Harper, Judge, and Ohtani have a good chance of doing so, too. I think 3,000 hits will be tough for any current player, though.

I don't think Stanton does. He is already injured to start the year and is barely passable as a starter as is. Any further erosion in his performance which is likely given his age, and he is out of an MLB job.

[REGGIE206]

If I had to bet on one active player, it would be Juan Soto.

Juan Soto started his MLB career at the age of 19 years old. He reached 200 HR’s at the age of 25 years old. Juan Soto may not be at his prime yet, so 500 should be reachable if he stays healthy.

[ThoseBackPages]

If I had to bet on one active player, it would be Juan Soto.

Juan Soto started his MLB career at the age of 19 years old. He reached 200 HR’s at the age of 25 years old. Juan Soto may not be at his prime yet, so 500 should be reachable if he stays healthy.

i would love to see it Reggie!

[mfw13]

You don't think the Marlins would have brought him back at the end on a cheap contract and let him get 3000 and 500 in a Marlins uni? They basically did the same with Ichiro and he didn't have any history with the Marlins. But my point is some team is going to sign these guys if they want to play on a cheap contract at the end of their career to pad their stats

It's certainly possible, but nobody should count on it as a given. There are also quite a few guys who never got that last 1-2 year contract that allowed them to get over the hump.

[Skipscards]

This surprises me considering he is essentially on pace. Average hits for 3K member in 31 yo season is 1882, and he has 1900.

What's hurting him is low hit totals the last couple of years, especially the 140 in 2023. He's on pace because he started young which helps.

If you look at the members of the club most of them at the age of 31 had seasons of 180-200+ hits in their age 29, 30, and 31 seasons. Of course, there are notable exceptions like Kaline and Rickey. Rickey played a loooooong time. And though Kaline started at a similar age as Manny, he was a .300 hitter most of his career. Either way, I think 28% is a reasonable shot.

If he matches his career high hit total (189) this season, he'll jump to 51%.

[Skipscards]

You missed the whole point. You're trying to say he's had all these major issues, like they were related to pitching.

One injury cost him two seasons. And part of a third season due to having not pitched in three years.

A line drive and bike accident are fluke things. And he's not swinging a bat anymore. 2024 proved the arm issues are in the past. He's not even close to Mike Trout.

Again, 24.5 starts a year the last two years. Averaged 6+ innings in 29 starts last season. So yeah, 3 more seasons of 150 innings seems very plausible. GTFOH with focusing on an injury that happened nearly 5 years ago. I listened to this same BS all of last off season and most of the season, and he went out and won the CYA.

I completely agree. Sale is not injury prone. His delivery has always made people say, he is destined to get injured (which he did, of course), but he's proven very durable throughout his career. The only thing that will stop him from getting to 3,000 Ks is another Tommy John Surgery.

At the moment he has a 51% chance at 3,000 and that's with two extremely low totals of Ks in 2023 and 2022. If he has another 200 K season this year, he becomes a virtual lock (97%).

[Stifle]

The vast majority of superstars without roids dramatically dropped after 34 years of age. You may believe that a player who is able to sustain 150+ games per season then has health issues.

We would all like to see the stars remain great but age is undefeated.

[eye4talent]

The vast majority of superstars without roids dramatically dropped after 34 years of age. You may believe that a player who is able to sustain 150+ games per season then has health issues.

We would all like to see the stars remain great but age is undefeated.


Some stars hit a wall, and some just go from a freshly paved road to gravelly one. So yeah, some or most of the guys being discussed will certainly fall short of the milestones. But some will hang on and stay useful enough for long enough.

For instance, Justin Turner is 40 and Carlos Santana is about to turn 39. Both are still effective enough to have recently signed contracts with competitive teams. Neither one is in the conversation for reaching 3000 or 500, but they’re evidence that players in this day and age will still put up numbers as they approach 40.

And we’ve seen superstars keep it up in recent years, with Ichiro, Beltre and Jeter. Miggy and Pujols limped to the finish lines, but they’re actually indicators that mega contracts will help players stick around to reach those milestones. (I doubt Soto will walk away from the game instead of collecting $51 million to be a gimpy 40-year-old has-been.)


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