Will we see any current active players get 500 HR or 3000 Hits?

[SleepyWill]

Are any active players in your mind going to hit these two massive career milestones?

If so, who?

[rats60]

At least one of Stanton, Machado, Harper or Judge will hit 500 HRs. I don't think anyone is getting 3000 hits anytime soon. The game values HRs and not hits/high batting average today.

[carlo16]

Freddie Freeman might have a shot at 3000

[JohnnyHatesJazz]

Juan Soto has a shot at 500.

[whitmm]

Originally Posted by carlo16

Freddie Freeman might have a shot at 3000

If you're counting Freeman, then you have to include Altuve. Altuve is only 35 hits behind Freeman and half a year younger.

We're talking 150 hits a season. for 5 more years.

Soto is only 26. Can he hit 30 hrs a year for the next 10? Matt Olson is only 30 and has average 39 hrs a season with Atlanta. The only seasons he's hit less than 25 were 2017 (24 hrs in 59 games) and the 2020 season.

There's some of the younger guys that could do it as well. Gunnar Henderson is at 69 hrs and he'll be turning 24 this season. Witt is at 82 and he's turning 25.

[TBTC Baseball]

Soto (122 hits) and Guerrero (97 hits) were ahead of the average pace of a 3K clubber (excluding Ichiro).
Machado was 6 hits less.
Freeman was 142 hits less.
Altuve was 184 hits less.

I'd put my money on Freeman out of all of them.

[SleepyWill]

Originally Posted by whitmm

If you're counting Freeman, then you have to include Altuve. Altuve is only 35 hits behind Freeman and half a year younger.

We're talking 150 hits a season. for 5 more years.

Soto is only 26. Can he hit 30 hrs a year for the next 10? Matt Olson is only 30 and has average 39 hrs a season with Atlanta. The only seasons he's hit less than 25 were 2017 (24 hrs in 59 games) and the 2020 season.

There's some of the younger guys that could do it as well. Gunnar Henderson is at 69 hrs and he'll be turning 24 this season. Witt is at 82 and he's turning 25.

Aaron Judge is 7 years older than Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and only leading him in career hits by 100.

[JMStang]

Jose Ramirez is 31 and exactly half way to both. Fransisco Lindor would be another one to watch.


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[whitmm]

Originally Posted by SleepyWill

Aaron Judge is 7 years older than Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and only leading him in career hits by 100.

Okay? I didn't say anything about either one of them.

[whitmm]

Arraez could be on that list of 3,000 hits potential. Assuming he could find a team to give him consistent ABs until he's 40

[hammertime]

Ohtani has a decent chance at 500.

[Centauri3]

Altuve and Freeman both seem likely to 3,000. I think 3-4 current players will hit 500 - Judge and Soto. Ohtani.

[LittleJimmies]

On the far too early to really tell front, Bobby Witt Jr. Is one I could see doing either or both. The ability is there and I think his overall makeup (both skills and physical ability) could lead to him playing for a very long time.

[rms13]

Originally Posted by Centauri3

Altuve and Freeman both seem likely to 3,000. I think 3-4 current players will hit 500 - Judge and Soto. Ohtani.

Judge has 315 HR, he'll be 33 in April and he can't stay healthy so that's a long shot. Ohtani is 30 and has 225 HR. He also has trouble staying healthy but if he eventually becomes a full time DH he may be able to get there. Soto probably has the best chance but now he's playing home games Citi field which is a downgrade for HRs compared to the other 3 home parks he's played in.

[Skipscards]

We will definitely see more 500 HR and 3,000 Hit Club members.

Originally Posted by carlo16

Freddie Freeman might have a shot at 3000

Originally Posted by whitmm

If you're counting Freeman, then you have to include Altuve. Altuve is only 35 hits behind Freeman and half a year younger.

We're talking 150 hits a season. for 5 more years.

Definitely two as likely as anyone. Freeman currently projects as having a 48% chance and Altuve projects at 42%.

[whitmm]

Originally Posted by rms13

Judge has 315 HR, he'll be 33 in April and he can't stay healthy so that's a long shot. Ohtani is 30 and has 225 HR. He also has trouble staying healthy but if he eventually becomes a full time DH he may be able to get there. Soto probably has the best chance but now he's playing home games Citi field which is a downgrade for HRs compared to the other 3 home parks he's played in.

Aaron Judge has played over 100 games in each of his full seasons (excluding the 2020 season). He hit 37 hrs in 106 games in 2023 and has averaged 49 per season over that last 4 years.

Ohtani has accumulated 600+ PAs in the last 4 seasons and has averaged 45 homers a season.

I'm not buying the "can't stay healthy" argument for either one of them.

[rfgilles]

Originally Posted by hammertime

Ohtani has a decent chance at 500.

He would have to average 37.5 homeruns for the next 10 years (39 years of age). He started late and slow for 500.

[Skipscards]

Originally Posted by rms13

Judge has 315 HR, he'll be 33 in April and he can't stay healthy so that's a long shot. Ohtani is 30 and has 225 HR. He also has trouble staying healthy but if he eventually becomes a full time DH he may be able to get there. Soto probably has the best chance but now he's playing home games Citi field which is a downgrade for HRs compared to the other 3 home parks he's played in.

He's stayed plenty healthy. He's played in 148+ games in 3 of his last 4 seasons and is the 2nd most prodigious HR hitter in history behind only McGwire.

Judge projects as having a 90% chance at 500 HRs. The question isn't whether he'll get to 500; it's will he get to 600 or 700? He has a 41% chance at 600 and 17% chance at 700.

He even has a measurable shot at Bonds...8%

[JAM061200]

If he keeps the trend of his hitting going, I can see Bobby Witt Jr reaching 3000 hits by the end of his career.

[mfw13]

Originally Posted by rms13

Judge has 315 HR, he'll be 33 in April and he can't stay healthy so that's a long shot. Ohtani is 30 and has 225 HR. He also has trouble staying healthy but if he eventually becomes a full time DH he may be able to get there.

This is where the long term contracts come into play. You saw Pujols and Miggy play way long after they stopped being effective players simply because they were under contract.

Judge is under contract for seven more seasons, and is 185 HR short of 500....so he's going to have to average about 26 HR a season until the end of the contract, which I don't think he will have trouble doing. And given that he can become a full-time DH once injuries start becoming an issue, I think he'll finish closer to 600 than 500.

Ohtani is already a full-time DH, and has nine more season to hit 275 home runs....that would mean averaging about 30 a year, which is eminently doable given that he's averaged 44 a year over the past four seasons.

Stanton needs 71 more and is under contract for three more seasons (with a team option for a fourth)....he's averaged 29 homers a season for the past four years, so seems likely to make it given that he only needs to average 24 a year for the next three years of his contract.

Trout is a 122 short and has six seasons remaining on his contract. If he moves to DH and stays healthier, he should make it, as he only needs to average 20 a year.

Harper is 164 HR short and has seven years left on his contract, meaning that he will need to average about 23-24 HR a season. Even with all his injuries, he's average about 26 a year over the past four seasons, has not moved to 1B, and will eventually become a DH.

Machado is 158 HR short and has nine more seasons on his contract. He's averaged about 30 HR a season over the past four seasons, so should make it with several years to spare.

Freeman has an outside shot at 3000 hits, but tailed off last year and is only under contract for three more seasons, at which point he'll be somewhere between 2700-2800 hits. If he's become Paul Goldschmidt by then, he may not get the playing time needed to get to 3000.

[hammertime]

Originally Posted by rfgilles

He would have to average 37.5 homeruns for the next 10 years (39 years of age). He started late and slow for 500.

Recheck your math. He has 225, he needs 275.

[Nostalgia]

Originally Posted by JohnnyHatesJazz

Juan Soto has a shot at 500.

Maybe if he stayed in the Bronx.

[rfgilles]

Originally Posted by hammertime

Recheck your math. He has 225, he needs 275.

Oops. My bad. I would tend to agree he has a solid shot.

[Tom Oates]

Originally Posted by rats60

At least one of Stanton, Machado, Harper or Judge will hit 500 HRs. I don't think anyone is getting 3000 hits anytime soon. The game values HRs and not hits/high batting average today.

Stanton is injured again. Double tennis elbow and is not swinging a bat yet in spring training. As many have stated previously on this board, he just can't stay healthy to live up to his full potential. Might still get to 500 but it's not a gimme.

[Nostalgia]

IF Judge stays relatively healthy, there is no reason to think he wont hit a 40+ homeruns the next 4. That gets him to 475 with only 40 a year.