Tell me all about breaking the good the bad the ugly!!

[Poorboy]

Everybody talks about it. I see advertisements for them.people curse breaks/breakers and say they are ruining the hobby. I don’t have an opinion.
I don’t know much about it.can we objectively learn and teach us newbies?
I’m curious of the history and beginnings .i believe i saw a popular breaker on Bo named Houdini ?
Are they really that fun or a gamblers paradise money pit?
What say you?
Thanks for looking either way.:coffee:n:coffee:

[kipgen]

The good:

You get a chance at a card for less money than you would ordinarily pay for that card by subsidizing the cost of multiple boxes (sometimes cases) of cards across a number of people (depending on the break this can be divisional IE 8 people, 32 people in the case of "pick your team" or random spots in the break, conference, etc etc they mix it up all different kinds of ways at different price points). You also in some cases such as "pick your team" breaks get the chance to avoid all cards except for certain teams you want.

The bad:

It's a losing proposition most of the time. Think of a card you want in your head, then go look at the price of that card on ebay. Let's take a case of 2019 bowman draft for example, and you really want a gunnar henderson 2019 bowman 1st auto. Find a break for 2019 bowman draft, then look at the price of the Baltimore spot. More likely than not, the cost of the spot will exceed the cost of the gunnar bowman 1st, or be close to it.

This is where random spots come in. If they make them random spots, instead of making certain spots more expensive than others, they simply equalize the price across all teams, making it more attractive to buyers because now they have a chance at a good card at an even more reduced price. However, now you have to contend with not only getting the correct team in a randomized format, but also hitting the bowman 1st auto out of the case you're buying into. You may buy into the break and be stuck with an awful team with zero good prospects from that year and you're essentially automatically out whatever money you paid into it.

The ugly:

Breakers steal cards. This is documented across many different breakers, there are lots of youtube videos on plenty of breakers who have stolen cards on camera and lied about not doing it.

Breakers lie and go back on their word. In the case of Backyard Breaks and a gold kaboom of Trevor Lawrence they pulled, they backpedalled on promising to give it away because "thats a tesla bro, we cant just give that away", and kept the card.

Some people get deep in the whole as a result of breaks. This isn't specific to breaking obviously, but my theory is that since it's one or two steps removed from gambling, people can rationalize more easily that what they're doing isn't gambling because at least they're receiving something for their money as opposed to losing it at the tables or betting it on the clippers or whatever.

There are also breaks you can do of repacks, which vary in quality and transparency, but the bottom line with repacks is this: 90% of the time, the card you are pulling out of the repack is not worth what you paid for it. They're marginally better than wax breaks because the floor is typically higher, but the ceiling is also lower, and your odds aren't any better. Plus, you're at the mercy of whoever did the repacks picking players you probably aren't a fan of. You might buy into a spot for the Astros and get a repack of Jeremy Pena or something like that. Not always the highest quality players you can imagine.

[Poorboy]

The good:

You get a chance at a card for less money than you would ordinarily pay for that card by subsidizing the cost of multiple boxes (sometimes cases) of cards across a number of people (depending on the break this can be divisional IE 8 people, 32 people in the case of "pick your team" or random spots in the break, conference, etc etc they mix it up all different kinds of ways at different price points). You also in some cases such as "pick your team" breaks get the chance to avoid all cards except for certain teams you want.

The bad:

It's a losing proposition most of the time. Think of a card you want in your head, then go look at the price of that card on ebay. Let's take a case of 2019 bowman draft for example, and you really want a gunnar henderson 2019 bowman 1st auto. Find a break for 2019 bowman draft, then look at the price of the Baltimore spot. More likely than not, the cost of the spot will exceed the cost of the gunnar bowman 1st, or be close to it.

This is where random spots come in. If they make them random spots, instead of making certain spots more expensive than others, they simply equalize the price across all teams, making it more attractive to buyers because now they have a chance at a good card at an even more reduced price. However, now you have to contend with not only getting the correct team in a randomized format, but also hitting the bowman 1st auto out of the case you're buying into. You may buy into the break and be stuck with an awful team with zero good prospects from that year and you're essentially automatically out whatever money you paid into it.

The ugly:

Breakers steal cards. This is documented across many different breakers, there are lots of youtube videos on plenty of breakers who have stolen cards on camera and lied about not doing it.

Breakers lie and go back on their word. In the case of Backyard Breaks and a gold kaboom of Trevor Lawrence they pulled, they backpedalled on promising to give it away because "thats a tesla bro, we cant just give that away", and kept the card.

Some people get deep in the whole as a result of breaks. This isn't specific to breaking obviously, but my theory is that since it's one or two steps removed from gambling, people can rationalize more easily that what they're doing isn't gambling because at least they're receiving something for their money as opposed to losing it at the tables or betting it on the clippers or whatever.

There are also breaks you can do of repacks, which vary in quality and transparency, but the bottom line with repacks is this: 90% of the time, the card you are pulling out of the repack is not worth what you paid for it. They're marginally better than wax breaks because the floor is typically higher, but the ceiling is also lower, and your odds aren't any better. Plus, you're at the mercy of whoever did the repacks picking players you probably aren't a fan of. You might buy into a spot for the Astros and get a repack of Jeremy Pena or something like that. Not always the highest quality players you can imagine.
Wow now that truly was the good bad and ugly
Very comprehensive
Food for thought
Going to go back and reread
So you are saying if you wanted the Henderson probably cheaper just to buy it ?

[daverat]

Great movie!

[Poorboy]

Great movie!

Lol it does lend its title to this thread
Talkin all about breaking
Lee van cleef looking for a signed Bobby Witt visuals:)!

[Poorboy]

Pretty sure hermano would say degenerate gambler bois
But I know there is more to it more than one story to be told

[seanbros55]

1,500 posts in
3 months is
impressive.

[PuddleMonkey]

I admire his dedication.

[dodgerfanjohn]

So I missed out this year on my favorite product(Allen & Ginter X).

I saw there were some listings on eBay for breaks. One company that is reputable had up player breaks in a full case. And they were running multiple cases. I noticed several HOF and fan favorite type players as well as a few Dodgers were not selling for much. I crunched the numbers, calculated break even price point by odds, and figured that if cheap enough, it was break even or positive expected value. So I took a shot. Only hits and rookie base ship. If you don’t hit, they still keep the shipping. I’ve never done a break before this.

I bought three break spots for like $11 shipped. Ridiculously cheap. In the third break I hit a Kershaw gold auto /5. It’s around a $300 card. I was hooked and bought in much more after that. A few breaks I had so many spots and didn’t hit that it amounts to bad luck. But there were lots of HOF spots that went with no bids so I sniped at last minute. I eventually got a Mike Piazza auto /10, an Andy Pages auto /50, and some Yamamoto and Pages rookies as well as random minis.

Total I spent about $330 over a lot of breaks. I didn’t lose money but there were quite a few dry spells. It’s not really fun having say 8 spots and whiffing. One thing that screwed things up was they went from full cases to half cases. Same beginning price. Most stuff was still a break even prospect, but it wasn’t as good a deal. And I mean, why would I expect it to be?

Bottom line is while that first hit was big rush, I bucked the odds there and got lucky. The dry spell later wasn’t fun. Kinda like craps when variance rears its ugly head and you go weeks of rolling 5-8 times and crapping out.

As far as the breakers, they were decent enough. One guy hosting was great and the other was ok. Northofseven was the breaker. Blez also had breaks and I watched some. They go by team rather than player and I don’t think I like that format. Really expensive too. If I were to whif or get a subpar pull while buying in for a $300 break my only thought would be “why didn’t I just go buy cards I wanted”. And one of their hosts is some younger guy with like ADD or something and he is straight out annoying.

The biggest three problems for me with breaks is 1.) I like opening cards. I set build and enjoy even the base cards. 2.) the breakers HAVE to make money which generally means an added cost above and beyond the market cost of the product. 3.) the breakers don’t know the product. In this years A&G X there are black chrome full size reportedly with appx 35 of each produced(by odds) and black chrome minis with 7 or 8 of each produced according to the odds. People are starting to catch on how limited these actually are and auction prices have been slowly rising. None of the breakers spend even a second on this cards and it was driving me nuts. Some of them are $100 plus cards so bigger than many of the autos.

[theshowandme]

Poor boy is one hell of a username.

Fits right in with 90% of the board

[kipgen]

Wow now that truly was the good bad and ugly
Very comprehensive
Food for thought
Going to go back and reread
So you are saying if you wanted the Henderson probably cheaper just to buy it ?

Yes 100%

[Poorboy]

So I missed out this year on my favorite product(Allen & Ginter X).

I saw there were some listings on eBay for breaks. One company that is reputable had up player breaks in a full case. And they were running multiple cases. I noticed several HOF and fan favorite type players as well as a few Dodgers were not selling for much. I crunched the numbers, calculated break even price point by odds, and figured that if cheap enough, it was break even or positive expected value. So I took a shot. Only hits and rookie base ship. If you don’t hit, they still keep the shipping. I’ve never done a break before this.

I bought three break spots for like $11 shipped. Ridiculously cheap. In the third break I hit a Kershaw gold auto /5. It’s around a $300 card. I was hooked and bought in much more after that. A few breaks I had so many spots and didn’t hit that it amounts to bad luck. But there were lots of HOF spots that went with no bids so I sniped at last minute. I eventually got a Mike Piazza auto /10, an Andy Pages auto /50, and some Yamamoto and Pages rookies as well as random minis.

Total I spent about $330 over a lot of breaks. I didn’t lose money but there were quite a few dry spells. It’s not really fun having say 8 spots and whiffing. One thing that screwed things up was they went from full cases to half cases. Same beginning price. Most stuff was still a break even prospect, but it wasn’t as good a deal. And I mean, why would I expect it to be?

Bottom line is while that first hit was big rush, I bucked the odds there and got lucky. The dry spell later wasn’t fun. Kinda like craps when variance rears its ugly head and you go weeks of rolling 5-8 times and crapping out.

As far as the breakers, they were decent enough. One guy hosting was great and the other was ok. Northofseven was the breaker. Blez also had breaks and I watched some. They go by team rather than player and I don’t think I like that format. Really expensive too. If I were to whif or get a subpar pull while buying in for a $300 break my only thought would be “why didn’t I just go buy cards I wanted”. And one of their hosts is some younger guy with like ADD or something and he is straight out annoying.

The biggest three problems for me with breaks is 1.) I like opening cards. I set build and enjoy even the base cards. 2.) the breakers HAVE to make money which generally means an added cost above and beyond the market cost of the product. 3.) the breakers don’t know the product. In this years A&G X there are black chrome full size reportedly with appx 35 of each produced(by odds) and black chrome minis with 7 or 8 of each produced according to the odds. People are starting to catch on how limited these actually are and auction prices have been slowly rising. None of the breakers spend even a second on this cards and it was driving me nuts. Some of them are $100 plus cards so bigger than many of the autos.
Nice contribution
I see exactly where you are coming from
Makes sense
Thanks

[Poorboy]

Poor boy is one hell of a username.

Fits right in with 90% of the board

Uhhhhhh ok
Thanks I guess ?

[Rooftop]

I would guess scratch off lottery tickets have better odds, plus a lot less work

[Poorboy]

Yes 100%

Ok thanks

[Poorboy]

I would guess scratch off lottery tickets have better odds, plus a lot less work

It’s that tough to hit a winner ?

[Poorboy]

I admire his dedication.

Thanks that means a lot

[f2tornado]

I participate in a few each year to burn some credits from PSA but it's not really my thing. That said, seeing how a product looks and breaks while having a little skin in the game is more entertaining than just watching something on YouTube. I tend to look for PTY (pick your team) format where a team has a lower buy-in relative to the potential hits. The Royals were cheap in Series 1 last year before Witt got red hot but I was mainly taking a longshot swing at a Bo Jackson or George Brett auto. No luck. Otherwise, I get my adrenaline rush betting on horses and that only takes a minute or two.

[hermanotarjeta]

Pretty sure hermano would say degenerate gambler bois
But I know there is more to it more than one story to be told

There is certainly a poors element to it, but the degenerate gambler is the predominating trait.

[Poorboy]

There is certainly a poors element to it, but the degenerate gambler is the predominating trait.

Rotfl I called it ….

[Poorboy]

I participate in a few each year to burn some credits from PSA but it's not really my thing. That said, seeing how a product looks and breaks while having a little skin in the game is more entertaining than just watching something on YouTube. I tend to look for PTY (pick your team) format where a team has a lower buy-in relative to the potential hits. The Royals were cheap in Series 1 last year before Witt got red hot but I was mainly taking a longshot swing at a Bo Jackson or George Brett auto. No luck. Otherwise, I get my adrenaline rush betting on horses and that only takes a minute or two.

So is it the potential value of a “”hit””
Or the rush is just in playing the game ?

[Gidtheson]

Breaks where every spot gets something are fine.
Breaks where a % of buyers walk away with nothing are terrible.
IMO

[Poorboy]

Breaks where every spot gets something are fine.
Breaks where a % of buyers walk away with nothing are terrible.
IMO

I didn’t know that happened …you can totally miss out on getting anything?

[Gidtheson]

I didn’t know that happened …you can totally miss out on getting anything?

Breaker has product with a 100 card checklist. Sells each spot on its own.
Imagine a high end product with only 10 cards per box, 8 box case. 80 cards. %20 walk away empty handed. This happens a lot.

[Poorboy]

Breaker has product with a 100 card checklist. Sells each spot on its own.
Imagine a high end product with only 10 cards per box, 8 box case. 80 cards. %20 walk away empty handed. This happens a lot.

That sounds horrible …….

[LCM1223]

1,500 posts in
3 months is
impressive.

I think everyone's in on the joke at this point

As long as they don't do what they did the first time they got canned, they might survive

[Poorboy]

I think everyone's in on the joke at this point

As long as they don't do what they did the first time they got canned, they might survive

i have no clue......what joke......? hoping to survive nothing is ever promised.

[Archangel1775]

The good:

You can buy into a 100 case break of your favorite prospect at a reasonable price.

The bad:

If they don't pan out, you have 500 base chrome cards that can't sell. :)

[Poorboy]

The good:

You can buy into a 100 case break of your favorite prospect at a reasonable price.

The bad:

If they don't pan out, you have 500 base chrome cards that can't sell. :)

So that dice roll could possibly pay off?
Provided they pan out ….:cool:

[mikejones]

Good- don't do it
Bad- do it
Ugly- do it and can't stop

[Poorboy]

Good- don't do it
Bad- do it
Ugly- do it and can't stop

rotfl:)!:)!

[Poorboy]

so how expensive can slots get?

[PapaStu]

so how expensive can slots get?

Depends on the product being opened (something like Flagship, or a more 'premium' set like Triple Threads), how much of it (a box? a case? multiple cases? what kind of case, Blaster? Hobby? Jumbo? HTA?) and how it's being sold (player, team, division, league, serial number, random?). When houdini was breaking Transcendent spots weren't cheap... but it was also a 20k a briefcase.


https://www.blowoutforums.com/showthread.php?t=1583866

https://www.blowoutforums.com/showthread.php?t=1542745

https://www.blowoutforums.com/showthread.php?t=1583866

Folks buying into those all got something, but what if you're buying into a premium break and it's a Pick Your player/team or a random player/team and you get nothing in that break? You cool having shelled out whatever and getting NOTHING back? What if you spent $99 bucks and get a single 'base' card that's worth $5 at best, for a team you don't care about because you got the Marlins in the team random?

What it comes down to in a break is why are you buying in, do you understand that product being broken and what can come out of it in that break format, especially in how it pertains to your buy-in and is it better to take that buy-in and put it towards the card(s) from the set you actually want? What if you get a player/team you don't want in a random break, or get that team you want, but hit $5-$10 worth of base cards for a much higher priced buy-in?

[Poorboy]

Depends on the product being opened (something like Flagship, or a more 'premium' set like Triple Threads), how much of it (a box? a case? multiple cases? what kind of case, Blaster? Hobby? Jumbo? HTA?) and how it's being sold (player, team, division, league, serial number, random?). When houdini was breaking Transcendent spots weren't cheap... but it was also a 20k a briefcase.


https://www.blowoutforums.com/showthread.php?t=1583866

https://www.blowoutforums.com/showthread.php?t=1542745

https://www.blowoutforums.com/showthread.php?t=1583866

Folks buying into those all got something, but what if you're buying into a premium break and it's a Pick Your player/team or a random player/team and you get nothing in that break? You cool having shelled out whatever and getting NOTHING back? What if you spent $99 bucks and get a single 'base' card that's worth $5 at best, for a team you don't care about because you got the Marlins in the team random?

What it comes down to in a break is why are you buying in, do you understand that product being broken and what can come out of it in that break format, especially in how it pertains to your buy-in and is it better to take that buy-in and put it towards the card(s) from the set you actually want? What if you get a player/team you don't want in a random break, or get that team you want, but hit $5-$10 worth of base cards for a much higher priced buy-in?
The downside of breaking seems to be brutal
All or nothing?

[f2tornado]

The downside of breaking seems to be brutal
All or nothing?

That's pretty much what it is for super premium products. Kind of like putting your $100 on a horse in a field of 20 for the Kentucky Derby.

Odds are you'll end up with something from a case of flagship Topps, Archives, or something similar but still a losing proposition most breaks.

[Poorboy]

That's pretty much what it is for super premium products. Kind of like putting your $100 on a horse in a field of 20 for the Kentucky Derby.

Odds are you'll end up with something from a case of flagship Topps, Archives, or something similar but still a losing proposition most breaks.

Are there cheaper alternatives?
Pro debut or heritage?

[Poorboy]

Breaking is looking more like just bad and ugly ? Lol

[dodgerfanjohn]

Are there cheaper alternatives?
Pro debut or heritage?

Buying singles.

[Poorboy]

Buying singles.

That Seems to be a popular opinion
So why do people break if it’s that rough ?

[f2tornado]

That Seems to be a popular opinion
So why do people break if it’s that rough ?

The same reason 97% of people who go to a casino come home with less than they started with. There are some player and team collectors that do it for the hobby aspect but those seem to be in the minority of participants. As others have stated, buying singles is the way to go for the risk averse... but you won't end up with the Ohtani 1/1 investing the buy-in price in singles.

[tonedef2oo8]

Avoid boomo99 breaks he’s still resealing cases

[dodgerfanjohn]

That Seems to be a popular opinion
So why do people break if it’s that rough ?

Breakers are cheap! Not really, but it appears that way.

[ThoseBackPages]

Breaking is great for your addiction if you are low on funds

[rms13]

The good part of breaking is sometimes you end up with cards that are worth more then what you paid. The bad part is that most of the time you end up with cards that are worth much less then you paid. So basically the same as opening wax on your own.

[dodgerfanjohn]

Breaking is great for your addiction if you are low on funds

Its a lotto ticket for the poors!

[rms13]

Its a lotto ticket for the poors!

Lotto is $1-2. That doesn't even cover shipping charges on a break

[dodgerfanjohn]

Lotto is $1-2. That doesn't even cover shipping charges on a break

You’re like a downer aren’t you?

[SaveMeTheGum]

Only a cuck pays another man to have them handle your goods while you watch.

Seriously though, breaking makes no sense to me, unless you're just a gambler that likes to throw money away. Breaking on your own is a losing proposition -- why pay someone else a premium to do it for you?

[YouTheManNick]

It used to be great. Then it blew up. Prices skyrocketed and now it's a bigger risk than roulette.

[mikejones]

It used to be great. Then it blew up. Prices skyrocketed and now it's a bigger risk than roulette.

A risk that a lot of people are willing to take.

[Poorboy]

Its a lotto ticket for the poors!

Well that would be me lol

[Poorboy]

Breaking is great for your addiction if you are low on funds

Always low on funds lol

[kipgen]

A risk that a lot of people are willing to take.

Evidently

I watch chasing cardboard and trike cards on youtube, these guys will go out to people's houses to buy their collections and a lot of these people have accrued some very nice collections with big cards via breaks

I can only imagine how much they had to spend on breaks to get those nice collections though

[Poorboy]

Evidently

I watch chasing cardboard and trike cards on youtube, these guys will go out to people's houses to buy their collections and a lot of these people have accrued some very nice collections with big cards via breaks

I can only imagine how much they had to spend on breaks to get those nice collections though

I guess they are living off credit ?

[hermanotarjeta]

The good part of breaking is sometimes you end up with cards that are worth more then what you paid. The bad part is that most of the time you end up with cards that are worth much less then you paid. So basically the same as opening wax on your own.

But at a higher buy in price.

[Raleigh504]

I guess they are living off credit ?

Or all their free money. Was watching (didn't finish it yet) a youtube where a guy bought just to buy. I have seen it at shows selling too where some guy comes in and got into a break, random facebook collections or even bought mystery packs and have NO IDEA what they have. Most of it is literally junk that you can't give away. Most that I see buy into breaks don't actually know the sport or who to chase.

Evidently

I watch chasing cardboard and trike cards on youtube, these guys will go out to people's houses to buy their collections and a lot of these people have accrued some very nice collections with big cards via breaks

I can only imagine how much they had to spend on breaks to get those nice collections though

I was watching it but didn't finish it. Really sounds like he does what most people do in just buying to buy stuff.

[Poorboy]

Or all their free money. Was watching (didn't finish it yet) a youtube where a guy bought just to buy. I have seen it at shows selling too where some guy comes in and got into a break, random facebook collections or even bought mystery packs and have NO IDEA what they have. Most of it is literally junk that you can't give away. Most that I see buy into breaks don't actually know the sport or who to chase.



I was watching it but didn't finish it. Really sounds like he does what most people do in just buying to buy stuff.

so now they are paying to just mindlessly hoard?!!!!

[Poorboy]

But at a higher buy in price.

thaz cray cray!!!!!!