Max Kepler....Buy/Sell/Hold

[StraWMyerS]

My opinion is basically that long term he will hit for average and some power, but will take another season or two before he really puts it together. He kind of reminds me of a Yelich type without as many steals.

Yelich doesn't really have a great market outside of his higher end cards, so I'm not expecting big prices from Kepler stuff either, but there isn't much of a precedent for European stars so that is kind of a question mark also.

I'm holding since he hasn't seen a significant jump yet and all he has to do is start hot (like that kid in Colorado whose name I forget) whenever he does eventually get consistent playing time, which seems like a decent bet.


Any thoughts out there on his potential ... whether near or long term?

[reidarritt]

with the way buxton is playing and now injured (again), kepler could see a sink or swim type deal where he gets plenty of PT and it could be his job to lose going forward

so i would hold, you aren't investing too much in the prices they are at now so it would be a safe bet to see some increase if he does become a starter and the sky is the limit from there with how he plays

[petillo64]

Originally Posted by StraWMyerS

My opinion is basically that long term he will hit for average and some power, but will take another season or two before he really puts it together. He kind of reminds me of a Yelich type without as many steals.

Yelich doesn't really have a great market outside of his higher end cards, so I'm not expecting big prices from Kepler stuff either, but there isn't much of a precedent for European stars so that is kind of a question mark also.

I'm holding since he hasn't seen a significant jump yet and all he has to do is start hot (like that kid in Colorado whose name I forget) whenever he does eventually get consistent playing time, which seems like a decent bet.


Any thoughts out there on his potential ... whether near or long term?

As someone who PC's yelich, and with the yelich comparison you are making, figured I would offer my insight.

A few differences... Yelich was 21 at the time of call-up, and has held his own, putting up .280+ in each of his first three years... hitting .300 in his 23 year old season and winning a gold glove the year prior (need to defend my PC guy).

I get what you're saying though... Kepler's year in AA last year was impressive, and he falls into that "above average hitter, lacking pop" category that yelich seems locked into.

To me, it really boils down to what you think he will be as a pro. As we have seen, if you're looking for $$$, your best bet is likely to sell at the first hot streak (if you think one will come). If he drops into regular playing time in the league and hits a steady .280 with no speed/mediocre at best pop pop, and no freakish trevor story-like surge, for the rest of his career, you have likely missed your peak to sell already and it will be a steady downward slope from here.

If you think he will be contending for batting titles and could develop 20+ hr potential, then hold.

I am a little delusional with my PC players, but I see Yelich going for .300+ and 20/20 within 2 years... So the decision on what to do with my extras has already been made.

[dasiegel]

kepler is more ready at the plate than buxton and not a bad fielder, he should be ok and has some room for growth but he has had a few windows already

[HOFAutoRookies]

Buy/Hold. Small sample size. He is a slow starter but he keeps improving. Kepler has had one truly good season in the minors which was last year. Yes, he had a great 2012 but that was his 3rd go round in rookie ball. As well as battling injuries etc. But he has always had a good strike zone, his k's and walks were consistent.

Kepler's investment will pay off in a few years. He will be the first European star in MLB and his cards will blow up because of that market. Just like when Ichiro, Godzilla etc first came over. That market blew up the prices.

I do and don't like the Yelich comparison. I wouldn't be surprised if Yelich won a batting title or two. In fact, I EXPECT him to. If Dee can, he will. No one expected Dee to hit and he is. He was pre-Billy Hamilton. I don't expect Kepler to.

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[deftones04]

This is weird because I was just thinkin bout the same yopic. Bought a base uto from 2010 BC and got BLue and another base auto off ebay.. I think Ima give him a few years and keep

[preakness]

Just didn't see star potential when he was out here for AFL

He will be ok but I wouldn't predict great investment guy

[Ottomatic]

I like the Yelich comparison, a good player that isn't flashy and may not get any hobby love. Though I like Yelich a bit more than Kepler.

[JimShorts01]

First glance I thought it said Mel Kiper. I yelled out SELL right away!

[StlScott]

Originally Posted by Ottomatic

I like the Yelich comparison, a good player that isn't flashy and may not get any hobby love. Though I like Yelich a bit more than Kepler.

Probably true IMHO. I do have hope for Yelich though. If he is close to winning some batting titles and/or gets traded to a team with a more hitter friendly ballpark, Yelich could be really good. I think Bonds will be good for him. Stanton and Gordon are who they are. Yelich has the most room to grow.

[StraWMyerS]

Originally Posted by reidarritt

with the way buxton is playing and now injured (again), kepler could see a sink or swim type deal where he gets plenty of PT and it could be his job to lose going forward

so i would hold, you aren't investing too much in the prices they are at now so it would be a safe bet to see some increase if he does become a starter and the sky is the limit from there with how he plays

Originally Posted by petillo64

As someone who PC's yelich, and with the yelich comparison you are making, figured I would offer my insight.

A few differences... Yelich was 21 at the time of call-up, and has held his own, putting up .280+ in each of his first three years... hitting .300 in his 23 year old season and winning a gold glove the year prior (need to defend my PC guy).

I get what you're saying though... Kepler's year in AA last year was impressive, and he falls into that "above average hitter, lacking pop" category that yelich seems locked into.

To me, it really boils down to what you think he will be as a pro. As we have seen, if you're looking for $$$, your best bet is likely to sell at the first hot streak (if you think one will come). If he drops into regular playing time in the league and hits a steady .280 with no speed/mediocre at best pop pop, and no freakish trevor story-like surge, for the rest of his career, you have likely missed your peak to sell already and it will be a steady downward slope from here.

If you think he will be contending for batting titles and could develop 20+ hr potential, then hold.

I am a little delusional with my PC players, but I see Yelich going for .300+ and 20/20 within 2 years... So the decision on what to do with my extras has already been made.

Originally Posted by dasiegel

kepler is more ready at the plate than buxton and not a bad fielder, he should be ok and has some room for growth but he has had a few windows already

Originally Posted by HOFAutoRookies

Buy/Hold. Small sample size. He is a slow starter but he keeps improving. Kepler has had one truly good season in the minors which was last year. Yes, he had a great 2012 but that was his 3rd go round in rookie ball. As well as battling injuries etc. But he has always had a good strike zone, his k's and walks were consistent.

Kepler's investment will pay off in a few years. He will be the first European star in MLB and his cards will blow up because of that market. Just like when Ichiro, Godzilla etc first came over. That market blew up the prices.

I do and don't like the Yelich comparison. I wouldn't be surprised if Yelich won a batting title or two. In fact, I EXPECT him to. If Dee can, he will. No one expected Dee to hit and he is. He was pre-Billy Hamilton. I don't expect Kepler to.

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Herein lies the problem. I expect him to be more of a poor man's Yelich, but as good all-around as Yelich is he still only sells around $20 a base auto. The difference hobby wise being that Yelich was faster through the minors and saw some higher prices during his success there. With Kepler's great season last year, I was surprised he never hit 30-$40 a base, which is why I'm still holding on to several.

Now the question remains how much of an adjustment period he will have or if he is already polished enough to hit consistently at this level.

What I'm hoping is that the European market does provide a significant boost to his values, and that he doesn't have to be an elite player for his market to improve.

[Ottomatic]

Originally Posted by StlScott

Probably true IMHO. I do have hope for Yelich though. If he is close to winning some batting titles and/or gets traded to a team with a more hitter friendly ballpark, Yelich could be really good. I think Bonds will be good for him. Stanton and Gordon are who they are. Yelich has the most room to grow.

Agree, Yelich's age makes me think he still could have some untapped potential. Even if he stays the same, if he sustains this for 10-15 years he could accumulate a ton of hits in his career. I'm holding some Yelich chrome auto's, I like him quite a bit.