Cardinals Acquire Paul Goldschmidt

[bn2cardz]

As a Cardinals fan that PC'd Goldschmidt this is like Christmas come early for me. I prefer players stay with their teams (I like single team stars), but if Goldschmidt was going to change teams I was glad he came here.

I am so excited.

This thread needed a photo:
[IMG]2011 Bowman Draft Futures Game Jumbo Patch - Paul Goldschmidt RC - 5-5 by andy neubert, on Flickr[/IMG]

[hagausaf]

Originally Posted by NickM

The Diamondbacks played 3 catchers last year: J.R. Murphy, Jeff Mathis, and Alex Avila. They combined for -0.4 WAR. I see this trade as making the Diamondbacks better overall, because they'll make up as much production at catcher as they'll lose at 1B (Descalso or Lamb), and they add Weaver, another prospect, and a draft pick.

Oh, and this deal also saves them a lot of money (Goldschmidt was owed $14.5 million for next year).

If I'm Arizona, I make a serious run at Bryce Harper. They're the 2nd best hitter's park in baseball, and he'd be 300 miles from home (Las Vegas)

I agree, if/when they can deal Greinke, they should offer Harper a contract he can’t refuse. It would be hard for him to turn down being so close to LV.

Also I don’t think the return for Goldy is as bad as people are making it out to be. They got 2 not so long ago top 100 guys and a toss in. Not bad for a contract year guy. Who knows what other offers came in.

[doowopbruce]

I can't believe how lucky St. Louis is. They got Goldschmidt for next to nothing. I was hoping Tampa Bay would go for him. They could've got him for Jake Bauers and a couple low level prospects. I know they wouldn't have signed him long term but they could well afford one year at $15mill being that they're present payroll is only 35mill.

[texmcpherson]

Originally Posted by bn2cardz

As a Cardinals fan that PC'd Goldschmidt this is like Christmas come early for me. I prefer players stay with their teams (I like single team stars), but if Goldschmidt was going to change teams I was glad he came here.

I am so excited.

This thread needed a photo:
[IMG]2011 Bowman Draft Futures Game Jumbo Patch - Paul Goldschmidt RC - 5-5 by andy neubert, on Flickr[/IMG]

Gorgeous card!

[Wade Mulroy]

Can't wait to see Goldy and a healthy Marcell in the middle of the lineup this year... Regardless of whether or not it turns out to be a one-year rental, I'll be making more trips to the park this year simply to see our shiny, new toy.

Easily the best first-baseman and bat around here since Prince Albert.

[Bowman1951]

It took me a bit of time to figure out why every single Goldschmidt in my COMC account was bought up yesterday.

[tscbaseball]

The Diamondbacks having a player like Goldy is the main reason I got back into collecting. Suddenly not feeling it right now. This one's going to hurt for a while.

[Bassplayah101]

Good time to sell then?
Ive been sitting on a 2018 Heritage real one RED AU, and his "Goldy" nickname card (2) all year.

[Scottish Punk]

I wonder how fearful that Diamondbacks didn't want to wait until trade deadline to deal Goldy. They would have gotten less at that point. I think people over estimate the market for star players. As everybody states, over 30 and only year. The one year is the key. If Goldy bolts for free agency, this deal really isn't that good for the Cardinals.
If I was GM for the DBacks, I would have waited out the market a bit to see if somebody else wanted to get some bids in. We don't know how many teams were in the market for him.

All that being said, I like Goldy and don't like the Cardinals. Sucks to root for guys on crappy teams.

[erock28]

The NL Central is going to be ridiculous and fun to watch this year. Could literally come down to the last week with all three big teams within a couple games of each other. Will be interesting to see how the Cubs and Brewers counter. Cubs could use some BP help, Brewers need to shore up the MI and catching slots, as well as add a starter.

Like others have said, the Cards basically stole Goldy. Even if for only a year...they stole him. When the trade was announced but the return package yet to be finalized, I told a buddy "Please let Flaherty be in it and not Weaver"...and welp, there you go.

This does make me wonder how long until Bumgarner gets moved. Bit of apples to oranges comparing a pitcher to a 1B, but if the Goldschmidt return package was underwhelming, one would think it shouldn't take a kings ransom to get Bum. He would be SUCH a perfect add to the Brewers...

[bn2cardz]

Originally Posted by tscbaseball

The Diamondbacks having a player like Goldy is the main reason I got back into collecting. Suddenly not feeling it right now. This one's going to hurt for a while.

This is why it is always my hope that players stay with their team. I am a Cardinals fan, but first I am a baseball fan. I feel bad for fans that lose their guy from their team. He will be a HOF and even if he stays with the Cards for a few years he will be an Arizona HOF, so I hope you can still have solace in that.

[bn2cardz]

Originally Posted by erock28

The NL Central is going to be ridiculous and fun to watch this year. Could literally come down to the last week with all three big teams within a couple games of each other. Will be interesting to see how the Cubs and Brewers counter. Cubs could use some BP help, Brewers need to shore up the MI and catching slots, as well as add a starter.

Like others have said, the Cards basically stole Goldy. Even if for only a year...they stole him. When the trade was announced but the return package yet to be finalized, I told a buddy "Please let Flaherty be in it and not Weaver"...and welp, there you go.

This does make me wonder how long until Bumgarner gets moved. Bit of apples to oranges comparing a pitcher to a 1B, but if the Goldschmidt return package was underwhelming, one would think it shouldn't take a kings ransom to get Bum. He would be SUCH a perfect add to the Brewers...

You definitely can't discount the Reds. If they get some pitching in the off season they will be a force to reckon with. Last year they had the 2nd Highest NL BA ( Gennett), 1st place NL OBP hitter (Votto), and number 8 SLG and OPS batter (Suarez).

[no10pin]

The D-Backs will be without their top 3 players from last year (assuming that they trade Greinke as mentioned below), I just don't see any incentive for Harper to sign there. Maybe they are building to something, but I feel like he's going to sign with a team that's currently ready to compete seriously.

Originally Posted by NickM

The Diamondbacks played 3 catchers last year: J.R. Murphy, Jeff Mathis, and Alex Avila. They combined for -0.4 WAR. I see this trade as making the Diamondbacks better overall, because they'll make up as much production at catcher as they'll lose at 1B (Descalso or Lamb), and they add Weaver, another prospect, and a draft pick.

Oh, and this deal also saves them a lot of money (Goldschmidt was owed $14.5 million for next year).

If I'm Arizona, I make a serious run at Bryce Harper. They're the 2nd best hitter's park in baseball, and he'd be 300 miles from home (Las Vegas)

Originally Posted by hagausaf

I agree, if/when they can deal Greinke, they should offer Harper a contract he can’t refuse. It would be hard for him to turn down being so close to LV.

Also I don’t think the return for Goldy is as bad as people are making it out to be. They got 2 not so long ago top 100 guys and a toss in. Not bad for a contract year guy. Who knows what other offers came in.

[glassnickels]

As a Cubs fan with a large Goldy PC this double stings. Guess I'll wait to see if he signs an extension before I decide what to do with my collection. I'll likely save much of it but was really hoping he'd go to the Yankees.

Sent from my SM-G960U using Tapatalk

[babybull]

Originally Posted by doowopbruce

I can't believe how lucky St. Louis is. They got Goldschmidt for next to nothing. I was hoping Tampa Bay would go for him. They could've got him for Jake Bauers and a couple low level prospects. I know they wouldn't have signed him long term but they could well afford one year at $15mill being that they're present payroll is only 35mill.

It isn't luck.

[SethMurphy]

Originally Posted by bn2cardz

This is why it is always my hope that players stay with their team. I am a Cardinals fan, but first I am a baseball fan. I feel bad for fans that lose their guy from their team. He will be a HOF and even if he stays with the Cards for a few years he will be an Arizona HOF, so I hope you can still have solace in that.

What makes you so sure Goldschmidt is a HOFer? He is currently 31 years old, and even if he doubles his current career numbers (taking him to 38 years old) he would only have 418 HR, 1,420 RBI and 248 SB. Now there is no way he continues to run like that, so he probably finishes with less than 200 steals. I don't see a lot of just over 400 homer guys being locks for the HOF. He is a Hall of Very Good to me, but not one of the greatest to ever play this game.


I could be way off, but I just don't think he is a lock for the HOF. Using Baseball Reference's similarity scores, he compares with Mo Vaughn, Jeff Bagwell, Adrian Gonzalez and Derrek Lee through age 30. Bagwell is in the hall, the rest aren't even close.

[jstasyk1121]

Originally Posted by bn2cardz

This is why it is always my hope that players stay with their team. I am a Cardinals fan, but first I am a baseball fan. I feel bad for fans that lose their guy from their team. He will be a HOF and even if he stays with the Cards for a few years he will be an Arizona HOF, so I hope you can still have solace in that.

yea i would put his HOF chances currently at like 5% or less...

he would need to improve going forward...and play until he is like 40 with a decline not coming until like 37/38 or so...he has no hardware to speak of yet...so he needs to likely win an MVP at least...and continue to put up big slash lines/counting stats...just to maybe get in as a weaker selection...

6x AS
3x GG
4x SS

MVP runner up 2x

career .300/.400/.530/.930 with 140ops+ which is a sparkling slash...but again...only likely to go down going forward...

40WAR on career...the average 1b in HOF is at like 67WAR...so he could get up around that number i suppose...i dont think he will...as i think 4-5WAR/year is the norm/peak for the next couple then decline...so 58-62WAR is my guess for his career...

but he was a late start...full time at 24yrs old...his counting stats are not going to look all that special...he is at 700runs, 1200hits, 200hr, 700rbi at this point...yes the 150+sb will help him as a 1b...but not enough to make up for not getting even 2500h, prob not 400hr or maybe just over...and his run/rbi totals will be like 1200-1300 range maybe?? maybe little higher if he plays long enough...either way...without MVP or some WS wins or a WS MVP to help bolster the resume...

no...i doubt he ever gets close to making the HOF at this point

[Peties Army]

Originally Posted by Scottish Punk

I wonder how fearful that Diamondbacks didn't want to wait until trade deadline to deal Goldy. They would have gotten less at that point. I think people over estimate the market for star players. As everybody states, over 30 and only year. The one year is the key. If Goldy bolts for free agency, this deal really isn't that good for the Cardinals.
If I was GM for the DBacks, I would have waited out the market a bit to see if somebody else wanted to get some bids in. We don't know how many teams were in the market for him.

All that being said, I like Goldy and don't like the Cardinals. Sucks to root for guys on crappy teams.

It’s not the age issue it’s the pending Free agency.

[bn2cardz]

Originally Posted by SethMurphy

What makes you so sure Goldschmidt is a HOFer? He is currently 31 years old, and even if he doubles his current career numbers (taking him to 38 years old) he would only have 418 HR, 1,420 RBI and 248 SB. Now there is no way he continues to run like that, so he probably finishes with less than 200 steals. I don't see a lot of just over 400 homer guys being locks for the HOF. He is a Hall of Very Good to me, but not one of the greatest to ever play this game.


I could be way off, but I just don't think he is a lock for the HOF. Using Baseball Reference's similarity scores, he compares with Mo Vaughn, Jeff Bagwell, Adrian Gonzalez and Derrek Lee through age 30. Bagwell is in the hall, the rest aren't even close.

You are right, it isn't guaranteed that he is a HOF. Yet I haven't seen a reason why he wouldn't be and I am optimistic about his chances.

You are basing a lot of your argument on offense and specifically accumulative stats. Goldy isn't just a great offensive player he is also a solid defensive 1st baseman.

Goldy is 1st in active 1B in Fielding % and 2nd in Range Factor/Game as 1B while being 7th in most Def games at 1B. You couple that with an offensive slash line of .297/.398/.532, he is one of the best consistent players on both sides of the game. In 7 full seasons he has 3 GG and 4 SS awards.

His OBP is 5th in active players behind Pujols, Cabrera, Votto, and Trout.

Also I don't know why you ordered it the way you did for your player comparing scores, but his number one match is Jeff Bagwell. And he was a clear cut HOF.

You are absolutely correct though that he just turned 31 in Sept and what he does over the next few years will have a huge influence in the end. As stated I guess I am just being optimistic.

Also you need to look at this stat to realize he really is one of the best/consistent players in the game right now:

Originally Posted by Jaypers

Interesting tidbit.

Sarah Langs @SlangsOnSports
Paul Goldschmidt is 1 of 2 position players and 3 players overall with 4.5+ WAR each season since 2013. The others are Mike Trout and Max Scherzer.

[Peties Army]

Originally Posted by bn2cardz

This is why it is always my hope that players stay with their team. I am a Cardinals fan, but first I am a baseball fan. I feel bad for fans that lose their guy from their team. He will be a HOF and even if he stays with the Cards for a few years he will be an Arizona HOF, so I hope you can still have solace in that.

I think you are a 100% wrong on that. He still has a lot of work to do for HOF, and what moment sticks out from his time with the D’Backs? No matter if he signs With STL next off season or somewhere else all his big achievements are going to come with that new team.

If he keeps up this pace and has a good 6 year run he will go into HOF a member of that new team.

[Ray27Ray52]

Originally Posted by bn2cardz

Also I don't know why you ordered it the way you did for your player comparing scores, but his number one match is Jeff Bagwell. And he was a clear cut HOF.

Not to nit pick you here but it took 7 years for Bagwell to get into the HOF. The whole steroid issue certainly came into play with the wait time, but that's not exactly a clear cut HOF'er by any stretch of the imagination.

[Peties Army]

Originally Posted by Ray27Ray52

Not to nit pick you here but it took 7 years for Bagwell to get into the HOF. The whole steroid issue certainly came into play with the wait time, but that's not exactly a clear cut HOF'er by any stretch of the imagination.

I agree with this. With assuming that his counting stats keep at his same rate(no way with SB) I think that by the time he gets to voting in 2030 there will be much more voters lookign at advanced stats he should do well. I can see the bagwell 7 year time frame being relastic

Winning an mvp like bagwell would certainly Help

[jstasyk1121]

Originally Posted by bn2cardz

You are right, it isn't guaranteed that he is a HOF. Yet I haven't seen a reason why he wouldn't be and I am optimistic about his chances.

You are basing a lot of your argument on offense and specifically accumulative stats. Goldy isn't just a great offensive player he is also a solid defensive 1st baseman.

Goldy is 1st in active 1B in Fielding % and 2nd in Range Factor/Game as 1B while being 7th in most Def games at 1B. You couple that with an offensive slash line of .297/.398/.532, he is one of the best consistent players on both sides of the game. In 7 full seasons he has 3 GG and 4 SS awards.

His OBP is 5th in active players behind Pujols, Cabrera, Votto, and Trout.

well the reasoning is that his stats wont merit inclusion....due to starting late in age...already being 31yrs old and not going to hit any type of "big milestone"...currently has 0 MVPs or WS wins....

his slash line is great...but again...with time that is likely to only go one direction...Down...especially if he plays til he is 40...i mean Pujols at one point had a legendary slash line...legit legendary after like 10 yrs of his career...which is a big chunk of a career...and he has declined so much that his current slash line is still really good but nothing too fancy anymore...


Now...OBVIOUSLY he doesnt need to be Pujols to make the HOF...Pujols is one of the all time greats at this point...just pointing out that it is more likely his slash line goes down over time rather than staying same or going up...

But he does need to be way better than what he is projecting at...like another poster said...take his last 7yrs(his only full yrs as a big league player...also basically his whole prime at like 24-31yrs old) and DOUBLE it...which is insanely unlikely!!!

he would not get in if you did that...he likely would never even get over like 15% of the vote

that would put him at roughly

1400runs
1400rbi
400hr
2400hits


as a 1B that is weak for a career when speaking of the HOF

1400 runs would put him right around Todd Helton
1400 rbis would put him right around Helton/Konerko
400 HR would put him right around Teixeira/Gallaraga
2400 hits would put him right around Konerko/M.Grace range


none of those guys are ever talked about as close to HOF guys...

as for his being a good defensive 1b making any real impact on his HOF chances...i just disagree that it will make any impact almost at all...its an offensive position

[jstasyk1121]

Originally Posted by Peties Army

I agree with this. With assuming that his counting stats keep at his same rate(no way with SB) I think that by the time he gets to voting in 2030 there will be much more voters lookign at advanced stats he should do well. I can see the bagwell 7 year time frame being relastic

Winning an mvp like bagwell would certainly Help

bagwell ENDED his career with a slash line better than Goldy has now thru his prime...no shot Goldy actually improves his slash stats...he would have to improve going forward to match his rbi/run/hr totals...he would have to double his WAR to get to what bagwell had...literally double it...and yea..just win one of those pesky MVPs...

then he would be comparable to Bagwell

but if he gets to like 2300 hits.. 1300 run/rbi...400hr...200sb(same as Bagwell) and ends with a .290/.385/.520/.905 with ops+ of 135 and like 63WAR..he really wouldnt be comparable to Bagwell all that much...and that is probably an optimistic career tally for him i would think...thats a damn fine career..but he isnt making HOF with that

[hagausaf]

Originally Posted by no10pin

The D-Backs will be without their top 3 players from last year (assuming that they trade Greinke as mentioned below), I just don't see any incentive for Harper to sign there. Maybe they are building to something, but I feel like he's going to sign with a team that's currently ready to compete seriously.

Incentive is Harper desperately wants to play in LV. Nearest place is Arizona and they’ve got the money to burn, if they can move Greinke which shouldn’t be too hard. They can rebuild around Bryce and still bring in fans with him around. It actually makes too much sense. They could just offer him 10 yrs 400 million. No team will beat that AAV.