Rafael Devers - Page 6

SirTommyWinAlot · 07-16-2019, 12:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackbears86

Curious why people are selling.

1. young player: check
2. hitting very well: check
3. fielding has significantly improved: check
4. on high value, well collected team in a big market: check
5. significantly undervalued: check
6. Red Sox quickly becoming "his team" and uncertainly with Mookie re-signing next year: check
7. Outside chance at MVP, (yes very outside chance) at the very least, top 5 candidate: check

Just my opinion: people are leaving money on the table by selling this early.

Edit: Not saying never sell, I just think it's too early.

Baseball good doesn't equate to hobby good. You got to just know who to stay away from.

Soto, Bogey, Devers, Torres....not hobby good. Next time, I prospect these guys and sell once they hit the bigs, starting with Marco and Wander.

LVDan · 07-16-2019, 12:33 PM

I found a TCU orange auto at a show last weekend for $60. Added it to the couple heritage autos I bought in the offseason. Still kicking myself for not buying a flagship black when they were available and affordable a few months ago.

blackbears86 · 07-16-2019, 12:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SirTommyWinAlot

Baseball good doesn't equate to hobby good. You got to just know who to stay away from.

Soto, Bogey, Devers, Torres....not hobby good. Next time, I prospect these guys and sell once they hit the bigs, starting with Marco and Wander.

Agree, but there is still meat on the bone with Devers/Torres/Soto with a relatively low risk buy in. I'll take my chances. The prices are just too good right now.

SirTommyWinAlot · 07-16-2019, 12:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackbears86

Agree, but there is still meat on the bone with Devers/Torres/Soto with a relatively low risk buy in. I'll take my chances. The prices are just too good right now.

yeah I just don't want to play that game. To be right only to find out he's not hobby good isn't for me. I'd rather prospect hop. Get in, get out and move onto the next guy. Next handsome white guy with 5 tool talent is the one I go long on.

Ok that didn't sound right.

LVDan · 07-16-2019, 12:48 PM

If youngsters Soto, Devers and Torres continue what they are doing they will be "hobby good" IMO (or even hobby great). The fact that their card prices haven't reflected their performance at such an early age tells me its more time to hold than anything.
When they get to 100hrs and people note that "hey that guy is only 24?!?"
It happens in a much more organic fashion than with prospects, and with much lower chance of buyer's remorse returns due to an extremely volatile market where an 0 fer 16 stretch for a top prospect can cut 25% of the card's value it seems.
I enjoy buying and selling in a more production driven, rather than hype driven atmosphere.
Less extreme wins and losses, more the "steady as she goes" approach.
Definetely more of a long game and it isnt for everyone.

Tim · 07-16-2019, 12:56 PM

The last two posts from sirtommy and lvdan sum it up perfectly for the two different types of investing - short vs long!

oddstuff · 07-16-2019, 12:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by LVDan

If youngsters Soto, Devers and Torres continue what they are doing they will be "hobby good" IMO (or even hobby great). The fact that their card prices haven't reflected their performance at such an early age tells me its more time to hold than anything.
When they get to 100hrs and people note that "hey that guy is only 24?!?"
It happens in a much more organic fashion than with prospects, and with much lower chance of buyer's remorse returns due to an extremely volatile market where an 0 fer 16 stretch for a top prospect can cut 25% of the card's value it seems.
I enjoy buying and selling in a more production driven, rather than hype driven atmosphere.
Less extreme wins and losses, more the "steady as she goes" approach.
Definetely more of a long game and it isnt for everyone.

the long game isn't for everyone for sure...the players you mentioned are all so young and already producing at a rate of far older players. They're all keepers for sure and will be hobby "great" very soon. All it really takes is one MVP season where the team is carried into the playoffs to spike their cards sky high.

SirTommyWinAlot · 07-16-2019, 12:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by LVDan

If youngsters Soto, Devers and Torres continue what they are doing they will be "hobby good" IMO (or even hobby great). The fact that their card prices haven't reflected their performance at such an early age tells me its more time to hold than anything.
When they get to 100hrs and people note that "hey that guy is only 24?!?"
It happens in a much more organic fashion than with prospects, and with much lower chance of buyer's remorse returns due to an extremely volatile market where an 0 fer 16 stretch for a top prospect can cut 25% of the card's value it seems.
I enjoy buying and selling in a more production driven, rather than hype driven atmosphere.
Less extreme wins and losses, more the "steady as she goes" approach.
Definetely more of a long game and it isnt for everyone.

I see what you're saying but time is money.

ThoseBackPages · 07-16-2019, 01:11 PM

Not Xander, he's never been hobby relevant

LVDan · 07-16-2019, 01:14 PM

Lotsa ways to skin a cat.
And tbh I play a more of a medium term thing with most RCs. From December to now the number of decent player RCs that have jumped 200-300% or more is significant:
Soroka
Ketel marte
Lourdes
Giolito
Urshela
Meadows
Glasnow(oops)
Bell
Castillo
German
Scherzer
not to mention the whole Yellinger thing
Now youre not going to make a mortgage payment flipping a high end RC of any of these guys but 2 or 3x your $ on 10 cards in a couple months is easy car payment type $.

SirTommyWinAlot · 07-16-2019, 01:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ThoseBackPages

Not Xander, he's never been hobby relevant

Exactly. Baseball good, hobby irrelevant. Heck, technically he shouldn't even have been in the all star game this year even though he clearly deserves to be.

If you have trouble getting into the all star game every year how are you going to have any chance of being hobby relevant? I suppose if he pulls a Maris career defining season but not very good odds if you ask me.

MCyganik · 07-16-2019, 01:19 PM

Unless you're a once in generation talent with good looks like Trout, nobody is worth holding onto more than a couple years if you're only in it for the money. Go look at the Pujols BC thread. EVERYONE but Trout in the modern market has a saturation point later in their careers, and its too early to see if any rare cards after 2001 will rise long-term like vintage stars do.

For people who enjoy PC'ing players they love to watch and feel comfortable with the buy-in price, Devers is a great example. I've made some money on him already but will more than happily keep a PC going years after the peak fall-off.

grizjunkie23 · 07-16-2019, 01:31 PM

I think part of the suppressed prices comes from knowing Devers’ key cards could have been had for the price of dirt just two months ago. People are slow to put money into something if they think they’re not getting a “good” deal, or are otherwise buying while prices are temporarily inflated. A player becomes “hobby good” once people realize prices are not going back down.

The best example I can give is Christian Yelich. Years of steady, borderline All-Star play met with only gradual price increases leading up to his MVP season. Even in the midst of that season, his stuff was still incredibly affordable. Then prices exploded. People saw his track record and figured out it wasn’t a fluke season, but the natural progression of his steadily improving play becoming something more. That didn’t happen til his age 26 season.

Devers is doing this at 22. While he lacks the track record of Yelich, a repeat season could easily ignite his prices. It’s been mentioned before, but he also plays for a huge market franchise, is generally likable, and does not have a history of injury. All of the ingredients are there.

ThoseBackPages · 07-16-2019, 01:39 PM

i feel for the guys that do this for money, i honestly do

its a tough way for sure

SirTommyWinAlot · 07-16-2019, 01:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ThoseBackPages

i feel for the guys that do this for money, i honestly do

its a tough way for sure

I don't really see it like i'm all about the $$$. I have to do it to support the player I collect who happens to be one of the most expensive players in the entire hobby.

The player you collect necessitates how you approach things. If you're a Tim Salmon collector, i'm sure the mindset would be totally different.

ThoseBackPages · 07-16-2019, 01:51 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SirTommyWinAlot

I don't really see it like i'm all about the $$$. I have to do it to support the player I collect who happens to be one of the most expensive players in the entire hobby.

The player you collect necessitates how you approach things. If you're a Tim Salmon collector, i'm sure the mindset would be totally different.

thats fair

LVDan · 07-16-2019, 01:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ThoseBackPages

i feel for the guys that do this for money, i honestly do

its a tough way for sure

I think the reality is, other than a select few people, shop owners and breakers I feel like most of us that do it "for the money" are doing it for fun "for the money". Just to see if you can. It comes with some ego-stroking validation that hits some inner psyche g-spot about self-intelligence or some !@#$ like that, I dunno. Im not paying my bills with baseball card profits, Im treating my wife to a manicure, playing a round of golf or treating a friend to lunch with it.
Buying and selling baseball cards is just plain fun just like fantasy baseball- especially when you do it with integrity and meet new friends along the way.

Big35Hurt · 07-16-2019, 01:54 PM

Will have a better career than Judge....that's all that matters.

ThoseBackPages · 07-16-2019, 02:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by LVDan

I think the reality is, other than a select few people, shop owners and breakers I feel like most of us that do it "for the money" are doing it for fun "for the money". Just to see if you can. It comes with some ego-stroking validation that hits some inner psyche g-spot about self-intelligence or some !@#$ like that, I dunno. Im not paying my bills with baseball card profits, Im treating my wife to a manicure, playing a round of golf or treating a friend to lunch with it.
Buying and selling baseball cards is just plain fun just like fantasy baseball- especially when you do it with integrity and meet new friends along the way.

that does make sense. thank you for that

Bassplayah101 · 07-16-2019, 02:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SirTommyWinAlot

yeah I just don't want to play that game. To be right only to find out he's not hobby good isn't for me. I'd rather prospect hop. Get in, get out and move onto the next guy. Next handsome white guy with 5 tool talent is the one I go long on.

Ok that didn't sound right.

You had me at handsome white guy.

Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk

cnewby · 07-16-2019, 02:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Big35Hurt

Will have a better career than Judge....that's all that matters.

Meh, kid's probably like all other sox players, one good year, one bad one. Rinse and repeat.

pewe · 07-16-2019, 02:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cnewby

Meh, kid's probably like all other sox players, one good year, one bad one. Rinse and repeat.

Is next year Chavis' day? Or Beni??? Maybe we should invest now

cnewby · 07-16-2019, 03:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by pewe

Is next year Chavis' day? Or Beni??? Maybe we should invest now

Chavis if I'm betting. He should at least get to play every day.

SirTommyWinAlot · 07-17-2019, 08:13 PM

2 for 3 with a HR and 3 more RBI's.

And the hobby hates him!

Hail2TheVictors · 07-17-2019, 09:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SirTommyWinAlot

2 for 3 with a HR and 3 more RBI's.

And the hobby hates him!

This "hobby hates him" or "not hobby good" is getting out of control.

He went bonkers after his callup in 2017, and 2018 was a step back (.240 avg, 21 HR). He's been great after a slow start this year, and is likely a legit MVP candidate. But it's going to take more than 2 good months for his stuff to sky rocket.

And by the way that you guys describe it, Yelich wasn't hobby good...until he was. But it takes more than just 2 months.

I'm rooting for him, so I hope it continues.

07-16-2019, 01:11 PM	#134
ThoseBackPages Member Join Date: Feb 2010 Location: Long Island Posts: 91,334 ThoseBackPages	Not Xander, he's never been hobby relevant __________________ Pumpers Paradise #YouCryIBuy Four things that we cannot change each others minds about: Politics, Religion, Third Party Grading, and 2021 Bowman's Best Rookie Cards

07-16-2019, 01:39 PM	#139
ThoseBackPages Member Join Date: Feb 2010 Location: Long Island Posts: 91,334 ThoseBackPages	i feel for the guys that do this for money, i honestly do its a tough way for sure __________________ Pumpers Paradise #YouCryIBuy Four things that we cannot change each others minds about: Politics, Religion, Third Party Grading, and 2021 Bowman's Best Rookie Cards

07-16-2019, 12:33 PM	#127
LVDan Member Join Date: Jun 2017 Posts: 17,849	I found a TCU orange auto at a show last weekend for $60. Added it to the couple heritage autos I bought in the offseason. Still kicking myself for not buying a flagship black when they were available and affordable a few months ago.

07-16-2019, 12:48 PM	#130
LVDan Member Join Date: Jun 2017 Posts: 17,849	If youngsters Soto, Devers and Torres continue what they are doing they will be "hobby good" IMO (or even hobby great). The fact that their card prices haven't reflected their performance at such an early age tells me its more time to hold than anything. When they get to 100hrs and people note that "hey that guy is only 24?!?" It happens in a much more organic fashion than with prospects, and with much lower chance of buyer's remorse returns due to an extremely volatile market where an 0 fer 16 stretch for a top prospect can cut 25% of the card's value it seems. I enjoy buying and selling in a more production driven, rather than hype driven atmosphere. Less extreme wins and losses, more the "steady as she goes" approach. Definetely more of a long game and it isnt for everyone.

07-16-2019, 12:56 PM	#131
Tim Member Join Date: Jul 2007 Posts: 6,932	The last two posts from sirtommy and lvdan sum it up perfectly for the two different types of investing - short vs long!

07-16-2019, 01:14 PM	#135
LVDan Member Join Date: Jun 2017 Posts: 17,849	Lotsa ways to skin a cat. And tbh I play a more of a medium term thing with most RCs. From December to now the number of decent player RCs that have jumped 200-300% or more is significant: Soroka Ketel marte Lourdes Giolito Urshela Meadows Glasnow(oops) Bell Castillo German Scherzer not to mention the whole Yellinger thing Now youre not going to make a mortgage payment flipping a high end RC of any of these guys but 2 or 3x your $ on 10 cards in a couple months is easy car payment type $.

07-16-2019, 01:19 PM	#137
MCyganik Member Join Date: Nov 2018 Location: Titletown USA Posts: 991 MCyganik	Unless you're a once in generation talent with good looks like Trout, nobody is worth holding onto more than a couple years if you're only in it for the money. Go look at the Pujols BC thread. EVERYONE but Trout in the modern market has a saturation point later in their careers, and its too early to see if any rare cards after 2001 will rise long-term like vintage stars do. For people who enjoy PC'ing players they love to watch and feel comfortable with the buy-in price, Devers is a great example. I've made some money on him already but will more than happily keep a PC going years after the peak fall-off.

07-16-2019, 01:31 PM	#138
grizjunkie23 Member Join Date: Jul 2012 Location: Montana Posts: 732 grizjunkie23 grizjunkie23	I think part of the suppressed prices comes from knowing Devers’ key cards could have been had for the price of dirt just two months ago. People are slow to put money into something if they think they’re not getting a “good” deal, or are otherwise buying while prices are temporarily inflated. A player becomes “hobby good” once people realize prices are not going back down. The best example I can give is Christian Yelich. Years of steady, borderline All-Star play met with only gradual price increases leading up to his MVP season. Even in the midst of that season, his stuff was still incredibly affordable. Then prices exploded. People saw his track record and figured out it wasn’t a fluke season, but the natural progression of his steadily improving play becoming something more. That didn’t happen til his age 26 season. Devers is doing this at 22. While he lacks the track record of Yelich, a repeat season could easily ignite his prices. It’s been mentioned before, but he also plays for a huge market franchise, is generally likable, and does not have a history of injury. All of the ingredients are there.

07-16-2019, 01:54 PM	#143
Big35Hurt Member Join Date: Aug 2015 Posts: 9,703	Will have a better career than Judge....that's all that matters.

07-17-2019, 08:13 PM	#149
SirTommyWinAlot Banned Join Date: Jun 2016 Location: Gillette Stadium/Foxboro Posts: 6,545	2 for 3 with a HR and 3 more RBI's. And the hobby hates him!