Zion bringing down the hobby?

brothertona · 10-05-2019, 08:48 AM

So we were talking about this while we were breaking boxes last night but what if Zion isn't otherworldy, what if he is merely good? What if instead of 24 and 10, you get 15 and 8 or 17 and 5 or worse? Could a Zion collapse bring down the hobby? You've all seen box prices and how they've trickled upwards with the mere mention of his name. Zion-Mania has been a massive cash cow for Panini. What if he crashes? Does he bring the hobby down with him?

Deadshot · 10-05-2019, 08:52 AM

The hobby won't come crashing down, but it might bring some people back to earth. Look at a guy like Ayton - he put up great numbers for a rookie but no one really cared. Does Zion have to surpass those numbers for the hype to stay alive?

With everyone coming out of college early now, people need to be patient. Give these guys time to develop. Some of them don't figure things out until a couple of years in (Oladipo, Siakam, etc).

KhalDrogo · 10-05-2019, 08:55 AM

Not a chance. There's always the next guy.

tennelson55 · 10-05-2019, 09:00 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by brothertona

So we were talking about this while we were breaking boxes last night but what if Zion isn't otherworldy, what if he is merely good? What if instead of 24 and 10, you get 15 and 8 or 17 and 5 or worse? Could a Zion collapse bring down the hobby? You've all seen box prices and how they've trickled upwards with the mere mention of his name. Zion-Mania has been a massive cash cow for Panini. What if he crashes? Does he bring the hobby down with him?

Zion is most effective off the ball imo. He’s also a big man/undersized with height. Big men don’t make it long in the hobby; and it isn’t going to change unless he’s Wilt and he’s not.

Zion won’t change anything in the hobby. People will spend money on a hobby; one player isn’t going to get new collectors into the game per se; collectors are here for players they collect or think “I like this guy and I’ll collect him.” The other guys are hype and dump who do it on the regular with any prospect

RogerGodahell · 10-05-2019, 09:00 AM

That's a good question and i think the answer is no. "If" he doesn't become the next Michael Jordan it will be ok. The hobby isn't going to die. The odds of him living up to expectations are very slim. There's a better chance he wont be the next MJ or Lebron.

oldgoldy97 · 10-05-2019, 09:05 AM

It will be the season of Ja.

RogerGodahell · 10-05-2019, 09:08 AM

What's crazy to me is how they've already priced in a $1000 Zion card in every case. Or basically doubled the price of every existing product. Better hope you hit a nice Zion, or else it's the slaughter house.

brothertona · 10-05-2019, 09:24 AM

This to me was the entire idea behind the post, for the record I think he is more of a Julius Randle type player (Julius Randle was 21 and 8- that's damn good) but I think the pump and dump could really do damage to the hobby if Zion doesn't become more than what I believe is a damn good player.

Quote:

Originally Posted by RogerGodahell

What's crazy to me is how they've already priced in a $1000 Zion card in every case. Or basically doubled the price of every existing product. Better hope you hit a nice Zion, or else it's the slaughter house.

dcarado · 10-05-2019, 09:27 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by KhalDrogo

Not a chance. There's always the next guy.

This. And Zion won't have to put up 20 and 10 to maintain the hype. He's the most explosive player we've seen in a while. We know what he can do, he just has to show that he's adapting to the NBA and stay healthy. If he puts up big numbers, it'll just push the market higher.

gomiamigo · 10-05-2019, 09:31 AM

If he's putting up highlights that'll be all the hobby need his rookie year even at 17 and 8. Imagine if NOP are actually good.

dcarado · 10-05-2019, 09:50 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by gomiamigo

If he's putting up highlights that'll be all the hobby need his rookie year even at 17 and 8. Imagine if NOP are actually good.

I think best case would be he puts up 20 and 10 and they're a 7-8 seed. There will be some highs and lows like Luka last year, but probably more highs than lows. Worst case he struggles and NOP sucks, but as long as he's on sportscenter every other night, prices will be fine.

KhalDrogo · 10-05-2019, 09:54 AM

Good luck stopping this! He doesn't need 20/10. He's the most explosive draft pick ever. Bron was a better player, but he did not look like Zion on the court. Hype is going to be through the roof as long as he doesn't get hurt. All eyes on Zion.

tjforce · 10-05-2019, 10:02 AM

To answer the OPs question: No.

First off, even if Zion doesn't totally live up to the hype, he'll probably do enough exciting things that he keeps peoples attention.

Even if he doesn't, Zion busting won't make me sell my LeBrons and Jordans, which have been doing pretty well these days.

RogerGodahell · 10-05-2019, 10:02 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by brothertona

This to me was the entire idea behind the post.

It will be interesting to see how the group breaks are priced. If they want to charge $2000 for the Pelicans spot in every break then ok that would make sense. It won't happen that way but it also doesn't make sense to increase every other team by $50-100 either when they have no shot at Zion. Either way it's going to be an interesting year.

Edit: Now that i think about it what they'll probably do is hold NO and give them away as a free team randomed to everyone who buys into the break. All the other teams will make up the difference. I haven't bought into any group breaks in a few years and forgot that's usually what they were doing for the top teams.

tjforce · 10-05-2019, 10:06 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by brothertona

This to me was the entire idea behind the post, for the record I think he is more of a Julius Randle type player (Julius Randle was 21 and 8- that's damn good) but I think the pump and dump could really do damage to the hobby if Zion doesn't become more than what I believe is a damn good player.

Those are Julius Randle's stats as a 24 year old.

Julius Randle played 1 game as a 20 year old.

He averaged 11 and 10 as a 21 year old.

13 and 9 at 22.

16 and 8 at 23.

He's never been an all star.

Yes, if Zion does that poorly, it'll be a bust.

Dnic · 10-05-2019, 10:09 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by KhalDrogo

Good luck stopping this! He doesn't need 20/10. He's the most explosive draft pick ever. Bron was a better player, but he did not look like Zion on the court. Hype is going to be through the roof as long as he doesn't get hurt.

Huge difference Lebron was compared to being the next Jordan, no where has it even been talked about except on this forum that Zion is even in the conversation with MJ and Lebron lol his ceiling is Sir Charles that's great but not transcending or generational at all.

gomiamigo · 10-05-2019, 10:19 AM

If you don't think Barkley was a generational talent you are very, very mistaken.

Between ages 22-36, Barkley leads Tim Duncan in BPM — by a whopping 1.8 points per 100 possessions — VORP and WS/48. Duncan is often regarded as the greatest PF ever. Won MVP and finished in top 6 seven other years included a 2nd behind MJ.

Barkley is 11th in career PER, 11th in WS/48, 12th in TS%, 9th in Off Rating, 3rd in career BPM, and 5th in VORP.

Zion ain't getting anywhere near those numbers.

brothertona · 10-05-2019, 10:21 AM

If they had the Blowout forum when Lebron was coming up this forum would be broken, the traffic would be so insane to document what he did next that you couldn't get on it.

RogerGodahell · 10-05-2019, 10:22 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by brothertona

If they had the Blowout forum when Lebron was coming up this forum would be broken, the traffic would be so insane to document what he did next that you couldn't get on it.

That's why Jordan had to play before the internet was invented.

Deadshot · 10-05-2019, 10:22 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by brothertona

If they had the Blowout forum when Lebron was coming up this forum would be broken, the traffic would be so insane to document what he did next that you couldn't get on it.

We actually did have forums then lol.

KhalDrogo · 10-05-2019, 10:32 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dnic

Huge difference Lebron was compared to being the next Jordan, no where has it even been talked about except on this forum that Zion is even in the conversation with MJ and Lebron lol his ceiling is Sir Charles that's great but not transcending or generational at all.

You don't have to be the next MJ to be a hobby superstar.

Dnic · 10-05-2019, 10:40 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by KhalDrogo

You don't have to be the next MJ to be a hobby superstar.

As much as Zion is being hyped I beg to differ

brettmik59 · 10-05-2019, 10:56 AM

It's gonna shake out a lot of guys, and that's a good thing. Expect prices to crash down to earth. Right now it's a cluster over college immaculate, but the guys who buy those cards for hundreds or thousands are gonna get hammered unless one of those guys turns out to be a 10x all star and HOFer.

It happens every year with rookies but this year is on anabolic steroids.

dcarado · 10-05-2019, 11:08 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dnic

As much as Zion is being hyped I beg to differ

I mean, are we speculating on whether his prices are warranted in the long-term? That's a pointless conversation that can be had about any high-priced current player not named Lebron.

Yes his prices will be astronomical, but so is his potential. High risk, high reward. Is it bad for the hobby? NO. Just pushes the ceiling higher for the next guy if he doesn't pan out.

smalltown · 10-05-2019, 11:08 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by brothertona

24 and 10

That's the Hobby and the NBA's wet dream.

Quote:

Originally Posted by brothertona

15 and 8

That's a much more realistic kind of line. Although i think the boards may still be a tad high. If he get anything north of 14 points and 5 rebounds that's a successful rookie campaign and combined with the likely crazy highlights it's enough for rookie of the year. That said i think he ends up falling in the 17-18ppg with 6-7rpg.

As for hobby growth. He's already got an All-NBA HOF priced into his cards.

10-05-2019, 08:48 AM	#1
brothertona Member Join Date: Jul 2019 Location: Atlanta, GA Posts: 6,967 brothertona1	Zion bringing down the hobby? So we were talking about this while we were breaking boxes last night but what if Zion isn't otherworldy, what if he is merely good? What if instead of 24 and 10, you get 15 and 8 or 17 and 5 or worse? Could a Zion collapse bring down the hobby? You've all seen box prices and how they've trickled upwards with the mere mention of his name. Zion-Mania has been a massive cash cow for Panini. What if he crashes? Does he bring the hobby down with him?

10-05-2019, 08:52 AM	#2
Deadshot Member Join Date: Nov 2014 Posts: 7,694	The hobby won't come crashing down, but it might bring some people back to earth. Look at a guy like Ayton - he put up great numbers for a rookie but no one really cared. Does Zion have to surpass those numbers for the hype to stay alive? With everyone coming out of college early now, people need to be patient. Give these guys time to develop. Some of them don't figure things out until a couple of years in (Oladipo, Siakam, etc). __________________ He said he name was “E”, so I introduced myself as “G”...The license plate said “IMNBITZ” or “IMNBISZ” or something. - G YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCPuD3WYJ0rkpLqDdyavC2WA

10-05-2019, 08:55 AM	#3
KhalDrogo Member Join Date: Aug 2017 Posts: 41,736	Not a chance. There's always the next guy. __________________ I love PSA!

10-05-2019, 09:05 AM	#6
oldgoldy97 Member Join Date: Jan 2009 Posts: 53,880	It will be the season of Ja. __________________ Truly riveting discussion: that’s what your wife/girlfriend/sheep said.

10-05-2019, 09:31 AM	#10
gomiamigo Member Join Date: May 2008 Location: in your head Posts: 11,041 esmoney gomiamigo	If he's putting up highlights that'll be all the hobby need his rookie year even at 17 and 8. Imagine if NOP are actually good. __________________ IG: KevinDurant35Cards

10-05-2019, 09:00 AM	#5
RogerGodahell Banned Join Date: Jun 2015 Location: Cardboard Enthusiast Posts: 20,783 RogerGodahell	That's a good question and i think the answer is no. "If" he doesn't become the next Michael Jordan it will be ok. The hobby isn't going to die. The odds of him living up to expectations are very slim. There's a better chance he wont be the next MJ or Lebron.

10-05-2019, 09:08 AM	#7
RogerGodahell Banned Join Date: Jun 2015 Location: Cardboard Enthusiast Posts: 20,783 RogerGodahell	What's crazy to me is how they've already priced in a $1000 Zion card in every case. Or basically doubled the price of every existing product. Better hope you hit a nice Zion, or else it's the slaughter house.

10-05-2019, 09:54 AM	#12
KhalDrogo Member Join Date: Aug 2017 Posts: 41,736	Good luck stopping this! He doesn't need 20/10. He's the most explosive draft pick ever. Bron was a better player, but he did not look like Zion on the court. Hype is going to be through the roof as long as he doesn't get hurt. All eyes on Zion. __________________ I love PSA!

10-05-2019, 10:02 AM	#13
tjforce Member Join Date: Oct 2012 Posts: 24,014	To answer the OPs question: No. First off, even if Zion doesn't totally live up to the hype, he'll probably do enough exciting things that he keeps peoples attention. Even if he doesn't, Zion busting won't make me sell my LeBrons and Jordans, which have been doing pretty well these days. __________________ "Whether you like it or not, learn to love it, because it’s the best thing going. Wooooo!"

10-05-2019, 10:19 AM	#17
gomiamigo Member Join Date: May 2008 Location: in your head Posts: 11,041 esmoney gomiamigo	If you don't think Barkley was a generational talent you are very, very mistaken. Between ages 22-36, Barkley leads Tim Duncan in BPM — by a whopping 1.8 points per 100 possessions — VORP and WS/48. Duncan is often regarded as the greatest PF ever. Won MVP and finished in top 6 seven other years included a 2nd behind MJ. Barkley is 11th in career PER, 11th in WS/48, 12th in TS%, 9th in Off Rating, 3rd in career BPM, and 5th in VORP. Zion ain't getting anywhere near those numbers. __________________ IG: KevinDurant35Cards Last edited by gomiamigo; 10-05-2019 at 10:22 AM.

10-05-2019, 10:21 AM	#18
brothertona Member Join Date: Jul 2019 Location: Atlanta, GA Posts: 6,967 brothertona1	If they had the Blowout forum when Lebron was coming up this forum would be broken, the traffic would be so insane to document what he did next that you couldn't get on it.

10-05-2019, 10:56 AM	#23
brettmik59 Member Join Date: Apr 2016 Location: Dallas, TX Posts: 2,077 brettmik59 brettmik59	It's gonna shake out a lot of guys, and that's a good thing. Expect prices to crash down to earth. Right now it's a cluster over college immaculate, but the guys who buy those cards for hundreds or thousands are gonna get hammered unless one of those guys turns out to be a 10x all star and HOFer. It happens every year with rookies but this year is on anabolic steroids.