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#1651 |
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Member
Join Date: Oct 2019
Posts: 29
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After reading PSA's website once again and thinking through Bo Hunter's explanations, I believe his probability calculations to be correct and mine to be wrong. Therefore, I am editing this post so others aren't misled. To see how to calculate the probability of a card being graded incorrectly twice, see posts 1655 and 1661 of this thread. Post 1655 also has what this post originally had in it before I deleted it. Sorry for any confusion I caused.
Last edited by critthnkr365; 10-11-2019 at 12:56 PM. |
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#1652 | |
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Member
Join Date: Mar 2011
Posts: 4,449
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Quote:
People can do whatever they want with their cards. When those cards are sold, traded, graded..., the alterations should be disclosed. Let the buyer make the decision, based on honest information. Have the grading companies put qualifications on altered cards (labeled as cleaned or whatever alteration) vs original and let the market decide the value. Who knows, maybe there's an entire new market of Bo Hunters that even with proper disclosure, choose to collect altered items. I'm thinking these "PSA 8 (cleaned, trimmed)" will be less desirable than those same cards in unaltered condition. PWCC phrasing like asset conservation can be put to the test.
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Ashley Lelie Rookie Collector, always looking for more. |
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#1653 | |
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Member
Join Date: Dec 2018
Posts: 8,676
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Quote:
Yes, think about your scenario for a moment and forget PSA requires people to say they’re not submitting altered cards... First, PSA wouldn’t call it a “PSA 8”, it would call it “PSA H” to distinguish it from a legitimate, unaltered card with H being the 8th letter of the alphabet. Second, most anyone could easily make a PSA H card. There’d be little $$$ in it for them to do so. Third, plenty of people would try to make a PSA H into a legitimate PSA 8...and PSA would miss plenty of them. The people that get caught would claim their innocence anyway. PSA 8s become less valuable because there’d be more of them. Any way one looks at it, graded cards tank and lose plenty of value.
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IRS Tax Tip 2022-57
A hobby is any activity that a person pursues because they enjoy it and with no intention of making a profit. People operate a business with the intention of making a profit. |
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#1654 | |
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Banned
Join Date: Sep 2019
Location: California
Posts: 385
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Quote:
However, I guess what I'm saying is that this is an unrealistic dream that will never come to fruition because they cannot detect a card that has been cleaned properly. So how are they going to start marking the cards with qualifiers like (C) for cleaned? It's just not going to happen. No one is going to send in a card with a sticky note saying "hey, I cleaned this card by the way, I know you can't tell, but I'm a really stand-up dude, and I'd appreciate it if you could give my card a (C) qualifier so that it will sell for 2 grades less than it otherwise would. Actually, now that I'm looking at my cards again, I just realized that I have two of these and I don't remember which one I cleaned, and now I can't tell them apart. Hmm... oh heck, let's just go ahead and mark them both with a (C) then. Because I know I cleaned one of them and I just can't remember which one it was now. Better safe than sorry. Thanks, and have a wonderful day. God Bless." ...6 weeks later. Same guy goes to a card show and buys 25 slabbed T206s to fill in his collection unaware that 19 of the 25 have been soaked/cleaned to remove them from an album. He happily passes them on as originals 10 years later without (C) qualifiers attached. |
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#1655 | |
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Banned
Join Date: Sep 2019
Location: California
Posts: 385
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Quote:
The math is pretty straightforward. There are four possible outcomes for the first stage of grading.
For outcome #1, a 3rd "grader" (verifier) must also get it wrong in order for a card to end up in a slab that it doesn't "belong" in. So the probability of this outcome is 0.15^3 = 0.003375. For outcomes 2 & 3, we need two more graders to get it wrong; one to break the tie and the other to verify it. The probability of this resulting in a card making its way into a slab that it doesn't belong in is then (0.85*0.15* + 0.15*0.85)*0.15*0.15 = 0.0057375. Adding up these two probability outcomes gives us 0.0091125 or 0.91125%, which is approximately 1 in 110 cards resulting in a misgrade. That's not very rare. All other combinations result in the card being placed in its "proper" holder. Last edited by Bo Hunter; 10-10-2019 at 01:06 AM. |
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#1656 | |
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Member
Join Date: Mar 2011
Posts: 4,449
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Quote:
Your previous post mentioned that if the cleaning (whatever) can't be detected, then it doesn't matter. Lot of things (cheating, lying, altering cards, forging autos, crimes .....) can be done without anyone knowing, that doesn't make it right or acceptable (until caught). There is scanning technology available, that can replicate most of the hard work that BODA has been putting towards uncovering these industry wide grading problems. If the grading companies actually cared about providing, unbiased condition opinions, they would be utilizing any and all available technology, to assist in the grading process.
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Ashley Lelie Rookie Collector, always looking for more. |
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#1657 |
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Banned
Join Date: Sep 2019
Location: California
Posts: 385
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Most of the cards I've seen posted where there is no evidence of trimming but which are being posted as examples of some other proposed shady dealings going on behind the scenes seem much more conspiratorial to me. Most of those cards look like they were undergraded in the before pics, and they almost all appear cleaner/brighter in the 'after' photos where they got the higher grades.
Something else worth noting is that a lot of the cards that come back as 'altered' will just keep getting resubmitted over and over again whether by the original submitter or the next person until they make it through. People make mistakes, despite valiant efforts, and graders are no exception. Cards that get undergraded will get cracked and resubmitted or cracked for a crossover until they get better grades. I just bought a Lebron rookie that was graded as a PSA 9 and it might be the nicest conditioned card I've ever seen. I'm planning to crack it out and resubmit it to BGS and won't be shocked if it comes back as a black label. I'd wager a lot of money that it comes back at least as a gem mint 9.5 and that if sent to PSA 6 times, at least half of those times it'd come back as a PSA 10. This stuff just happens, and it happens in both directions. Once they grade millions of cards, that results in a hell of a lot of "misgraded" cards in the wild. But people know that, and that's why there's a ton of fluctuation in sale prices for cards with the exact same grades. |
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#1658 |
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BODA
Join Date: Jul 2013
Location: From a table in McDonalds, with lovely fake flowers on it.
Posts: 18,726
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Well, it has happened again with another 1956 Topps card that was graded just two cards prior to the Charley Neal card. This time card-buyer and company trimmed the PSA 8.
1956 Topps Red Schoendienst #165 ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() PSA 8: PSA Cert #25946575 PWCC link: https://www.pwccmarketplace.com/items/1363362 Purchased by card-buyer/OCSI from PWCC on October 13, 2016 for $109.50. Removed from slab, trimmed on the right edge as shown, and graded again by PSA. With the trimming not detected and the card now centered, the card became a PSA 9. PSA 9: PSA Cert #27202176 PWCC link: https://www.pwccmarketplace.com/items/1527723 Purchased by VCP masked buyer ID c***y from PWCC on August 19, 2017 for $760.00. Card was sent to PSA for a grade review and they once again missed the trimming alteration. After re-evaluating the trimmed card they changed the grade to a Pop 1 of 1 PSA 10. PSA 10: PSA Cert #27202176 VCP link: https://vintagecardprices.com/card/b...5/66600/PSA/10 Sold by probstein123 on August 26, 2019 for $1,780.40 as a Population 1 of 1 PSA 10. Same card - three different grades. Prices from $109.50 to $1,780.40.
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He has no rival, He has no equal.
Last edited by corndog; 10-19-2019 at 06:45 AM. |
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#1659 | |
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Member
Join Date: Oct 2019
Posts: 29
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Quote:
Second, you are correct that there is more than one possible outcome for each event (each time the card is graded). But only one outcome actually occurs. Once outcome 1 happens, the card gets a grade and no further outcomes are possible for that event. Therefore, the probabilities of each possible outcome can't be additive. Last edited by critthnkr365; 10-10-2019 at 05:02 AM. |
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#1660 | |
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Banned
Join Date: Sep 2017
Location: Desert
Posts: 312
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Quote:
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#1661 | |
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Banned
Join Date: Sep 2019
Location: California
Posts: 385
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Quote:
On the second point, you're mistaken. The outcome probabilities for each of the 4 events I gave are additive, and they all sum to 1. In order to calculate the probability of a card being misgraded, the easiest approach is to calculate the probability for each permutation that results in a card being misgraded and sum them up. You could also calculate the probability of a card being correctly graded twice and subtract that from 1 to arrive at the same answer. Regardless, I take your point that it's extremely difficult for a card to be misgraded twice then get a bump the 3rd time around. But that doesn't give us a smoking gun with respect to TPG corruption. It more likely informs us that something was probably done to the card to improve its appearance. It could also be the case that grading criteria has changed over time, particularly within sets as more cards get graded. One of the most confusing grading standards I encounter, and one which seems to be very inconsistent, is with respect to "hairs" on edges. Sometimes they are graded as a PSA 10, sometimes they are docked for it. I have a Bo Jackson 1986 Topps with the same issue, graded as a PSA 10, but if I were to crack & resubmit it 10 times, it probably comes back with a different grade half the time. I think different graders seem to disagree somewhat on how much certain flaws matter and sometimes if they are even "flaws" to begin with. This card fits that same narrative as far as I can tell. People who submit large volumes of cards for grading often learn these subtle nuances well. They probably get a pretty good feel for which cards they can get a bump out of. I have a few myself that I plan to crack and resubmit that have a very good chance at receiving a bump. If I'm selective enough and have a good enough eye for it, I ought to be able to identify cards that would be good candidates to get bumps out of. Sent from my Pixel 3 using Tapatalk |
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#1662 |
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Member
Join Date: Jun 2009
Posts: 7,346
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While on your vacation you literally refreshed this topic nearly daily. As soon as your off of suspension you RUN back to this topic...
Glad to see you didn’t learn a thing and are only here to disagree with everyone. You’ll be gone again.
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“ I am very good at calculating stuff. 160+60=210 “
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#1663 | |
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Member
Join Date: Dec 2018
Posts: 8,676
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Quote:
I believe PSA has already gone on record claiming their error rate is 2-3%.
__________________
IRS Tax Tip 2022-57
A hobby is any activity that a person pursues because they enjoy it and with no intention of making a profit. People operate a business with the intention of making a profit. |
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#1664 |
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Member
Join Date: Dec 2018
Posts: 8,676
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You keep claiming prices aren’t decreasing. Obviously as more and more high graded cards appear, the demand for high graded cards decreases. Why wouldn’t that be relevant?
__________________
IRS Tax Tip 2022-57
A hobby is any activity that a person pursues because they enjoy it and with no intention of making a profit. People operate a business with the intention of making a profit. |
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#1665 |
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Member
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are the inmates now running the asylum?
the PBM's are outta control
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Pumpers Paradise
#YouCryIBuy Four things that we cannot change each others minds about: Politics, Religion, Third Party Grading, and 2021 Bowman's Best Rookie Cards |
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#1666 | |
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Member
Join Date: Jul 2019
Posts: 595
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Quote:
As more and more tainted cards are granted high number grades, it will only dilute the waters and eventually bring prices down. People are paying crazy money for the concept of scarcity, and when that all goes away, so will the gravy train. |
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#1667 |
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Banned
Join Date: Sep 2019
Location: California
Posts: 385
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Interesting hypothetical: pretend that a Topps factory worker cuts a stack of cards then realizes after cutting them that the Patrick Mahomes auto card came out wide by 1/8". Knowing that it's the most coveted card in the set, he decides to correct the cut and puts it back into the cutter, bringing it down to the correct size. Does this bother anyone? Does Topps need to include a note inside the pack, informing the customer of the card's history? Or do you have no problems with this?
Assuming you have no issue with that, what if instead that same employee has the same oversized card but this time it belongs to him. He ripped it from a pack/box that he won at the company's holiday Christmas party and decides to correct the cut on the same factory machine because he's super OCD about condition for his PC. Does that change anything for you? Is anyone OK with the first situation but not the second one? I'm definitely OK with the first one, less so with the second one. Others might be ok with both or neither. But I find it interesting that there definitely exists a continuum where most of us would land differently. |
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#1668 |
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Member
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Even though I question your motivation; it’s clear the first is part of the production process itself, the second is trimming.
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#1669 | |
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BODA
Join Date: Mar 2015
Posts: 4,272
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Quote:
The statements I bolded are your fallacious opinions, not facts about the hobby. They cannot go unchallenged. Chemical cleaning is not viewed as an acceptable practice by a large percentage of vintage collectors, and we've proven that bleached cards are not indistiguishable from their uncleaned counterparts. The caustic nature of these chemicals have caused colors to run and fade, and pressed out creases can return. We are not talking about merely soaking cards to remove water-soluble album glues here, and you know that. And as far as holding "TPGs to unrealistic standards," these are their own standards, explicitly laid out for decades. Your contributions to this thread read suspiciously like posts PWCC and its legal team will point to in order to justify denying refunds to claimants who present them with bleached cards we've found. They are, to my knowledge, refunding only the trimmed and recolored cards at this point, and will be refunding cards they deem to be in the gray area on a case-by-case basis afterward. Finally, your unironic use of the phrase "asset conservation" shows you are well-versed in PWCC newspeak, comrade. Perhaps you should stick to collecting casino chips stained with "hooker juice." Syphilis, too, can go undetected for many years.
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Cardboard Detective Emeritus superdan49@protonmail.com — Anonymous Tip-line |
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#1670 | |
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Member
Join Date: Jul 2019
Location: French underground
Posts: 4,009
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Quote:
I would only add that even cards submerged and soaked in water can turn out wrong and leave the card with a pourous, hardened, petrified feel afterwards. I have encountered many cards like this over the years. I would argue that almost nothing that is currently being done by the 20+ card doctors explicitly identified on these fora, would qualify as legitimate conservation. Given the evidence that is now abundant and in plain sight, anyone who would argue differently is either invincibly ignorant or is a shill for the card doctors. |
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#1671 | |
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Member
Join Date: Jul 2019
Location: French underground
Posts: 4,009
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Quote:
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#1672 |
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Member
Join Date: Aug 2019
Location: Navarre, Florida
Posts: 4,202
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The fact that people are even attempting to defend the practice of "conserving" cards is so crazy. When did this even become a conversation?
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#1673 | |
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Banned
Join Date: Sep 2019
Location: California
Posts: 385
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Quote:
The issue of undetectably cleaned cards in the market is parallel to the philosophical thought experiment "If a tree falls in a forest and no one is around to hear it, does it make a sound?". Of course the tree makes the sound. But why is this debated? Why is there even value in asking an otherwise seemingly silly question? The point of the debate, and the reason people still talk about the sound of a tree falling is whether or not it matters if the tree makes a sound if no one is there to hear it. It may just as well have not made a sound since there is no perceivable difference. It's a slippery slope, and where each of us draws our "I'm ok with this, but not with that" line is different. I'm merely pointing out my viewpoint because it seems to be a dissenting opinion in this thread. Most of the cards you guys are digging up I am in complete agreement with you on. The trimmed cards are highly problematic and frustrating to discover. But the other cards, the ones that aren't trimmed or rebuilt with card stock, for me, those either land in the completely acceptable bucket or the gray area bucket. I'm mostly interested in solutions and a realistic view of the problem. I don't pretend to have a magic solution that makes everyone happy, but I am listening to ideas and I'm confident that the "no improvements of any kind; full stop" voices will not win over the market. It's just not realistic. You guys are welcome to disagree with me. That's what a forum is for, a healthy debate. But I'm just a math nerd from silicon valley with a keyboard and some money that I'm looking to invest into sports cards, and I'm sharing my views of how I see the issue. I'm not some PWCC shill or a PBM looking to piss anyone off. The only card I've bought from PWCC I suspect was trimmed, and I'm sending it off to another TPG for confirmation. If it comes back as having been altered, PWCC will be refunding me. I'm not a fan of PWCC. I find them to be arrogant and self-promoting. Although I do like their market price research tool. |
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#1674 |
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BODA
Join Date: Jul 2013
Location: From a table in McDonalds, with lovely fake flowers on it.
Posts: 18,726
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PSA Cert #27202136
1959 Fleer The 3 Stooges Peek-A-Boo! #21 - Population 1 of 4 Value gain of $1,735.00 Current PSA Registry Sets: This cert is currently in Set Registry inventory and is featured in one or more sets, including Restless Knights. This card was purchased by Ebay ID card-buyer from Ebay seller probstein123 as a PSA 8 for $40.00 on October 20, 2016. VCP link: https://vintagecardprices.com/card/n...1/187763/PSA/8 Same card was sold by PWCC as a PSA 10 for $1,775.00 on October 29, 2017. PWCC Marketplace link: https://www.pwccmarketplace.com/items/1569587 Yellow circles are print, fiber, or chipping identifiers. Red box identifies trimmed top edge. ![]() ![]() ![]()
__________________
He has no rival, He has no equal.
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#1675 | ||
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Banned
Join Date: Sep 2019
Location: California
Posts: 385
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Quote:
Quote:
I find it equally as crazy that anyone would take issue with something as benign as the cleaning of a stray ink mark like in this video below, posted by Houdini that I referenced earlier. If you have an issue with this (and some of you certainly do), or with something as benign as polishing a chrome card, then we will never see eye-to-eye. Again, that's ok, but the market is only going to side with one of our opinions. I'll leave it to you to figure out which side the market is going to land on. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HESm_soqXeY&t=24s |
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