What Happened?? Mahomes Optic....

[Playmaker88x]

I stopped by a card show near my house over the weekend, bought some wax and the new Football Beckett. I had been following sales of cards and players on eBay for the last 2 years, and hadn't looked at a Beckett for at least that long. I looked through the 2017 sets and see Patrick Mahomes Optic is way more than any other card in the set, and it's not even close. It's a base rookie card...…… His rookie cards are the highest in every base set from 2017, yes, but.....
From collecting cards on and off for the past 30 years from the major sports, I know that the Kobe Bryant and LeBron James Topps Chrome cards were always super expensive and highly sought after. The Manning Topps Chrome is solid too, However, I thought that had died out and the Topps Chrome base rookies weren't the real chase rookies anymore, with RPA's and thousands of others that have come about and released over time. It seemed that the Contenders, National Treasures, and Flawless were the chase base rookie cards to own each year of the top players. For instance, when Odell Beckham was on fire a few years back, his topps chrome rookie never went above $15 at most. Now that Optic is the new topps chrome, is that becoming the card to own again of the best player from each draft class now?

[Siberian13]

What’s a Beckett?

[SleeperCards]

If you’re buying a Beckett in 2019 then there’s probably too much for you to catch up on in one thread.

[Playmaker88x]

Originally Posted by SleeperCards

If you’re buying a Beckett in 2019 then there’s probably too much for you to catch up on in one thread.

lol, forget the beckett, on your eBay page you have the perfect example of my question, you have 2 Mahomes PSA Gem 10 Rookies for sale, one is the base crown royal rookie, and the other is the optic base rookie, yet the asking price for the Optic is around 2x what the asking price is for the crown royal rc, why?
When both sets were released, the Optic wax boxes didn't cost twice as much as the crown royal wax boxes. Why has Optic become more valuable to other sets that cost the same, that was my question...

[no10pin]

Originally Posted by Playmaker88x

lol, forget the beckett, on your eBay page you have the perfect example of my question, you have 2 Mahomes PSA Gem 10 Rookies for sale, one is the base crown royal rookie, and the other is the optic base rookie, yet the asking price for the Optic is around 2x what the asking price is for the crown royal rc, why?
When both sets were released, the Optic wax boxes didn't cost twice as much as the crown royal wax boxes. Why has Optic become more valuable to other sets that cost the same, that was my question...

There are sets that are just more popular than others, it's always been that way. In baseball, Bowman Chrome outsells Bowman's Best by more than 2:1 probably.

There are a lot of choices out there, so people gravitate to the more popular releases.

[Willikn]

Originally Posted by Playmaker88x

When both sets were released, the Optic wax boxes didn't cost twice as much as the crown royal wax boxes. Why has Optic become more valuable to other sets that cost the same, that was my question...

If you were looking to buy a Mahomes RC a year ago, those two cards were roughly the same price. Akin to Kobe's Finest RC and Chrome RC being roughly the same price shortly after their release.

[SleeperCards]

Originally Posted by Playmaker88x

lol, forget the beckett, on your eBay page you have the perfect example of my question, you have 2 Mahomes PSA Gem 10 Rookies for sale, one is the base crown royal rookie, and the other is the optic base rookie, yet the asking price for the Optic is around 2x what the asking price is for the crown royal rc, why?
When both sets were released, the Optic wax boxes didn't cost twice as much as the crown royal wax boxes. Why has Optic become more valuable to other sets that cost the same, that was my question...

Short answer would just be popularity. Card collecting does NOT make sense for the most part, it is fueled by emotion over logic a lot of the time. As a logical person I find this frustrating at times, but I don't think it's going to change any time soon.

[ninjacookies]

https://www.blowoutforums.com/showthread.php?t=1325781

Began with this thread, which spawned an instantaneous #Opticboi phenomenon; where optic cards that had long been undesired and cheap were suddenly highly sought after and regarded as one of the greatest Panini releases in modern day c'lecting. It set off a massive wave of instant buy it nows and a bitcoin-like logarithmic growth curve within the span of a week. FOMO and POMO collided in epic proportions. New Ebay record highs set every 0.034 seconds.

As a resultant, a civil war has brewed between the #opticboi and #prizmboi camps over which now holds the best base card title. Which inevitably means the #selectbois will soon have their time to shine.


I say all that to say this: buy what you like...not what others like.

[majestik101]

Personally I'm a #selectboi

[marinocollector]

Beckham is a bad example bc 2014 topps chrome was a high print run.
Also, in the last 5 years, non auto RC have become more popular. Also, Brady’s explosion caused people to realize HOW to invest in football. Brees, Big Ben, and Aaron Rodgers followed. All of a sudden a lot of money is being tossed at football. 90s football also increased too. People love Prizm and Optic for their non auto rookie options, as its had success in basketball.

[Playmaker88x]

Originally Posted by ninjacookies

https://www.blowoutforums.com/showthread.php?t=1325781

Began with this thread, which spawned an instantaneous #Opticboi phenomenon; where optic cards that had long been undesired and cheap were suddenly highly sought after and regarded as one of the greatest Panini releases in modern day c'lecting. It set off a massive wave of instant buy it nows and a bitcoin-like logarithmic growth curve within the span of a week. FOMO and POMO collided in epic proportions. New Ebay record highs set every 0.034 seconds.

As a resultant, a civil war has brewed between the #opticboi and #prizmboi camps over which now holds the best base card title. Which inevitably means the #selectbois will soon have their time to shine.


I say all that to say this: buy what you like...not what others like.

Thank you for this reply, interesting thread, and you bring up a great point about Prizm. I had 2 Kawhi Leonard 2012-13 regular base prizm rookie cards I sold 18 months ago at auction that went for around $25-$30 each. Recent sales now are over $100....it's a base...rookie card....I just don't understand the craze.
Shaq base rookie cards were good in the mid 90s, that's the last time I can remember base rookie cards having any value. With all the game used memorabilia and multiple autos now in every box, I guess I thought you had to get an RPA of a good player to have the chance at getting $50-$100+ for a card, I'm just not used to base rookies having any value, but apparently they are making a comeback, which is good I suppose.

[ninjacookies]

Originally Posted by Playmaker88x

Thank you for this reply, interesting thread, and you bring up a great point about Prizm. I had 2 Kawhi Leonard 2012-13 regular base prizm rookie cards I sold 18 months ago at auction that went for around $25-$30 each. Recent sales now are over $100....it's a base...rookie card....I just don't understand the craze.
Shaq base rookie cards were good in the mid 90s, that's the last time I can remember base rookie cards having any value. With all the game used memorabilia and multiple autos now in every box, I guess I thought you had to get an RPA of a good player to have the chance at getting $50-$100+ for a card, I'm just not used to base rookies having any value, but apparently they are making a comeback, which is good I suppose.

Key rookie cards of key players will almost always have current and future demand, even the base cards. The tricky part is understanding the market and not falling for momentary hype/shill events. But if it's a card you really like and it's for a personal collection, then future value shouldn't be of utmost concern.

More often than not, it's not a good idea to pay premium rookie card prices of young, unproven talents, because odds are in great favor that you'll be able to buy those cards much cheaper down the road once they're no longer the new hot thing.

Typical trajectory of player card prices:

- initial price surge, usually stems from a breakout game or season early in their career

- pullback as player no longer is the new shiny toy/ statistical cool off

- resurgence in prices if they have an mvp caliber/championship season later down the line

- more pullbacks when they're not

..........................


- resurgence again late in their career if they've established themselves as a HOF shoe-in



Early championships in a player's career (assuming they're a star and not just a complimentary piece) help maintain more future pricing stability, as there's a baseline of greatness already factored in. Guys like Aaron Rodgers and Kawhi are good examples of this. While their prices may not explode every year, there's a good chance you won't be able to find key cards of either falling off a cliff either.

[KevJo]

Why is the sky blue? Why is mud brown? Why does crap stink?

Kevin

[Playmaker88x]

Originally Posted by KevJo

Why is the sky blue? Why is mud brown? Why does crap stink?

Kevin

Great input. thank you.