First Buzz: 2020 Topps Series 1 baseball cards

[KhalDrogo]

Originally Posted by premium1981

Almost everything drops at release. People still have to "lock in" though for some reason. Everyone said 2019 Update would never get down to good prices, but I bought a ton of it in the $700's after release. I was able to buy as much as I wanted. This release will be no different. Its Series 1. The most highly produced product of the year. And yet some people are snatching it up thinking it will be scarce.

Literally nobody is here saying they are buying it because it’s scarce. People are buying it because it has a great RC class and is relatively affordable. Look at the comparatives:

2020 Series 2 Hobby - $1000
2019 Update Hobby - $1175
2019 Series 2 Hobby - OOS

[chfu3030]

Originally Posted by KhalDrogo

Literally nobody is here saying they are buying it because it’s scarce. People are buying it because it has a great RC class and is relatively affordable. Look at the comparatives:

2020 Series 2 Hobby - $1000
2019 Update Hobby - $1175
2019 Series 2 Hobby - OOS

Has anyone here actually bought S II at 1K yet?

[KhalDrogo]

Originally Posted by chfu3030

Has anyone here actually bought S II at 1K yet?

Hopefully not, but that's not the point.

If you want to rip Flagship from the last three seasons, your only options to rip Hobby for less is 2018 and 2019 Series 1. 2019 Series 1 RC class is awful. 2018 Series 1 is good, but not as good as 2020.

[premium1981]

Originally Posted by KhalDrogo

Literally nobody is here saying they are buying it because it’s scarce.

That is what "locking in" means. Getting it while you can, at a price you can. People are afraid that there will not be any available at regular pricing, hence the scarceness I was referring to. It will be everywhere, and it will be reasonably priced.

[longbomberz]

Got 2 jumbo boxes coming and drew the Mariners in a 4 case jumbo break. Not one of the biggies but could do worse than a stack of Kyle Lewis with a shot at Ichiro and Griffey autos.

[KhalDrogo]

Originally Posted by premium1981

That is what "locking in" means. Getting it while you can, at a price you can. People are afraid that there will not be any available at regular pricing, hence the scarceness I was referring to. It will be everywhere, and it will be reasonably priced.

You're ignoring that with practically ever break ever, the best returns are on release day. Never mind that this phenomenon is the most glaring with Flagship, since it's one of the few set building sets left.

Is anyone here predominantly buying to hold long term?

[PDCCollectibles]

Originally Posted by KhalDrogo

You're ignoring that with practically ever break ever, the best returns are on release day. Never mind that this phenomenon is the most glaring with Flagship, since it's one of the few set building sets left.

Is anyone here predominantly buying to hold long term?

For as long as I've been breaking, never buy to hold S1, the return is always solid when breaking the first couple days. But, we are in a weird hobby world these days, so who knows.....I hold Sapphire though

[premium1981]

Originally Posted by KhalDrogo

You're ignoring that with practically ever break ever, the best returns are on release day. Never mind that this phenomenon is the most glaring with Flagship, since it's one of the few set building sets left.

The release week prices are not worth the price difference in most instances.

Use my 2019 Update for an example.

Guy #1 buys at the $1,200 presell price. Sell it all and gets back to his break even point.

Guy #2 buys at $750 and is patient, and returns $900.

Who wins? Yea, Guy #2 made $300 less in his sales, but he is the clear winner. I know these numbers are just hypothetical, and it is different for every release and every breaker. But I am a math guy and just follow the numbers. The numbers don't add up enough for me to jump on at those first prices. Additionally, by waiting, you also get in low enough to save some cases and see if they trend up, where Guy #1 has to dump as fast as possible and hope for the best with his results.

[Stech36]

Originally Posted by premium1981

The release week prices are not worth the price difference in most instances.

Use my 2019 Update for an example.

Guy #1 buys at the $1,200 presell price. Sell it all and gets back to his break even point.

Guy #2 buys at $750 and is patient, and returns $900.

Who wins? Yea, Guy #2 made $300 less in his sales, but he is the clear winner. I know these numbers are just hypothetical, and it is different for every release and every breaker. But I am a math guy and just follow the numbers. The numbers don't add up enough for me to jump on at those first prices. Additionally, by waiting, you also get in low enough to save some cases and see if they trend up, where Guy #1 has to dump as fast as possible and hope for the best with his results.

With a $550 price difference, you’re correct. But with the $150 or so price difference in series 1, it’s worth the difference

[yrocks2001]

Originally Posted by premium1981

The release week prices are not worth the price difference in most instances.

Use my 2019 Update for an example.

Guy #1 buys at the $1,200 presell price. Sell it all and gets back to his break even point.

Guy #2 buys at $750 and is patient, and returns $900.

Who wins? Yea, Guy #2 made $300 less in his sales, but he is the clear winner. I know these numbers are just hypothetical, and it is different for every release and every breaker. But I am a math guy and just follow the numbers. The numbers don't add up enough for me to jump on at those first prices. Additionally, by waiting, you also get in low enough to save some cases and see if they trend up, where Guy #1 has to dump as fast as possible and hope for the best with his results.

So check my hypothetical math...

Guy #1 buys at the $700 presell price. and returns a bajillion dollars

Guy #2 buys at $600 and is patient, and passes away never having sold a card and now his family is burdened with all of these tiny baseball pictures that they don't know what to do with so the throw them all away including a 1/1 platinum Yordan Alvarez rookie card that will now decompose in a garbage dump in southern Ohio under a pile of old spaghetti.

[KhalDrogo]

Originally Posted by premium1981

The release week prices are not worth the price difference in most instances.

Use my 2019 Update for an example.

Guy #1 buys at the $1,200 presell price. Sell it all and gets back to his break even point.

Guy #2 buys at $750 and is patient, and returns $900.

Who wins? Yea, Guy #2 made $300 less in his sales, but he is the clear winner. I know these numbers are just hypothetical, and it is different for every release and every breaker. But I am a math guy and just follow the numbers. The numbers don't add up enough for me to jump on at those first prices. Additionally, by waiting, you also get in low enough to save some cases and see if they trend up, where Guy #1 has to dump as fast as possible and hope for the best with his results.

You’re a “math guy”, yet using completely made up numbers to support your argument. And doing it with the most overpriced Flagship release of all time.

[premium1981]

Originally Posted by KhalDrogo

You’re a “math guy”, yet using completely made up numbers to support your argument. And doing it with the most overpriced Flagship release of all time.

I can’t use actual math figures on a release that hasn’t released yet.

[KhalDrogo]

Originally Posted by premium1981

I can’t use actual math figures on a release that hasn’t released yet.

So you’re saying you can’t predict the future?

Bottom line, nobody knows what case prices will be in 2 weeks or 2 months. What the big 3 want for 2019 Update tells me that these guys have zero interest in letting products go that have hot RCs. Prices stay high because they can keep them there and still move product. If Yordan, Bo, or Lux come out hot, God help us all.