First Buzz: 2020 Topps Series 1 baseball cards

[premium1981]

Originally Posted by cruiserdaddy7

What I am saying is that Series 1 always drops.

Almost everything drops at release. People still have to "lock in" though for some reason. Everyone said 2019 Update would never get down to good prices, but I bought a ton of it in the $700's after release. I was able to buy as much as I wanted. This release will be no different. Its Series 1. The most highly produced product of the year. And yet some people are snatching it up thinking it will be scarce.

[cruiserdaddy7]

Originally Posted by KhalDrogo

Again, this is the first Series 1 release where Flagship fever is active. The hobby was in a different place in January 2019.

Heritage is a nice product, and will have a good RC crop. But it is not Flagship. And everyone wants Flagship.

Flagship fever has been active for quite a while. It's Series 1. which is active for about a week or two. Update has been hot for years now and it hasn't and won't carry over to series 1. History doesn't lie.

[dmanrico]

Originally Posted by BBases31

Lol didn't you just yesterday buy a PSA 10 NNO for $165 in BST? Big swing from passing on them at the $100 going rate just 10 days ago

I’m not following what your point is?

[Zauron]

Originally Posted by premium1981

Almost everything drops at release. People still have to "lock in" though for some reason. Everyone said 2019 Update would never get down to good prices, but I bought a ton of it in the $700's after release. I was able to buy as much as I wanted. This release will be no different. Its Series 1. The most highly produced product of the year. And yet some people are snatching it up thinking it will be scarce.

How 2019 Update is still priced so high to me is baffling, to be honest

[KhalDrogo]

Originally Posted by cruiserdaddy7

Flagship fever has been active for quite a while. It's Series 1. which is active for about a week or two. Update has been hot for years now and it hasn't and won't carry over to series 1. History doesn't lie.

No offense, but your memory is off. I was buying hobby boxes of 2018 Update through February 2019 for under $100. Is that hot to you?

Flagship has seen an unprecedented rise that began in August 2019.

[KhalDrogo]

Originally Posted by premium1981

Almost everything drops at release. People still have to "lock in" though for some reason. Everyone said 2019 Update would never get down to good prices, but I bought a ton of it in the $700's after release. I was able to buy as much as I wanted. This release will be no different. Its Series 1. The most highly produced product of the year. And yet some people are snatching it up thinking it will be scarce.

Literally nobody is here saying they are buying it because it’s scarce. People are buying it because it has a great RC class and is relatively affordable. Look at the comparatives:

2020 Series 2 Hobby - $1000
2019 Update Hobby - $1175
2019 Series 2 Hobby - OOS

[wyguy11]

Originally Posted by ThoseBackPages

i cant see Series 1 wax being highly sought after as time goes by.

not to mention Topps makes more of it then anything else they make

What if we made less this year?

What if you don’t know what player is going to either do what you think they are.... or...better ?

That’s what I love about this convo, it’s all hindsight. People knew Ozzie Albies would help push the series 1 as much as Buehler or Devers ? No way...there’s still more RC’s in that release that can help move it.

You never know governor, you never know.


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[chfu3030]

Originally Posted by KhalDrogo

Literally nobody is here saying they are buying it because it’s scarce. People are buying it because it has a great RC class and is relatively affordable. Look at the comparatives:

2020 Series 2 Hobby - $1000
2019 Update Hobby - $1175
2019 Series 2 Hobby - OOS

Has anyone here actually bought S II at 1K yet?

[wyguy11]

Originally Posted by premium1981

Agree 100% that it would be better with no factory sets. But my point is the parallels are what's pushing case prices in spite of that. If there were no factory sets (or limited amounts) the prices would be even more insane. We are in a whole new level that the hobby has never seen. Someone will get left with the hot potatoe at some point, because this can't keep going like it has been. Topps Series 1 selling for 30%-40% markups before release is almost unbelievable. That people are actually paying that.

The last sentence of this explains Kobe gate.

Hey, there’s money out here...let’s see what people will pay.

If all you veteran collectors would hit Twitter and all social media sites as hard as you can, just posting pictures of cards, you would influx sales...


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[KhalDrogo]

Originally Posted by chfu3030

Has anyone here actually bought S II at 1K yet?

Hopefully not, but that's not the point.

If you want to rip Flagship from the last three seasons, your only options to rip Hobby for less is 2018 and 2019 Series 1. 2019 Series 1 RC class is awful. 2018 Series 1 is good, but not as good as 2020.

[ThoseBackPages]

Originally Posted by wyguy11

What if we made less this year?

What if you don’t know what player is going to either do what you think they are.... or...better ?

That’s what I love about this convo, it’s all hindsight. People knew Ozzie Albies would help push the series 1 as much as Buehler or Devers ? No way...there’s still more RC’s in that release that can help move it.

You never know governor, you never know.


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there'd be no reason not to make more, nevermind less

[premium1981]

Originally Posted by KhalDrogo

Literally nobody is here saying they are buying it because it’s scarce.

That is what "locking in" means. Getting it while you can, at a price you can. People are afraid that there will not be any available at regular pricing, hence the scarceness I was referring to. It will be everywhere, and it will be reasonably priced.

[longbomberz]

Got 2 jumbo boxes coming and drew the Mariners in a 4 case jumbo break. Not one of the biggies but could do worse than a stack of Kyle Lewis with a shot at Ichiro and Griffey autos.

[KhalDrogo]

Originally Posted by premium1981

That is what "locking in" means. Getting it while you can, at a price you can. People are afraid that there will not be any available at regular pricing, hence the scarceness I was referring to. It will be everywhere, and it will be reasonably priced.

You're ignoring that with practically ever break ever, the best returns are on release day. Never mind that this phenomenon is the most glaring with Flagship, since it's one of the few set building sets left.

Is anyone here predominantly buying to hold long term?

[LVDan]

Originally Posted by wyguy11

What if we made less this year?

What if you don’t know what player is going to either do what you think they are.... or...better ?

That’s what I love about this convo, it’s all hindsight. People knew Ozzie Albies would help push the series 1 as much as Buehler or Devers ? No way...there’s still more RC’s in that release that can help move it.

You never know governor, you never know.


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His key cards have Really taken off this winter. That $600 clear was a shot over the bough(bow?).

[wyguy11]

I’d say a case of S1 ‘18 Jumbo isn’t the worst thing you could buy right now.


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[PDCCollectibles]

Originally Posted by KhalDrogo

You're ignoring that with practically ever break ever, the best returns are on release day. Never mind that this phenomenon is the most glaring with Flagship, since it's one of the few set building sets left.

Is anyone here predominantly buying to hold long term?

For as long as I've been breaking, never buy to hold S1, the return is always solid when breaking the first couple days. But, we are in a weird hobby world these days, so who knows.....I hold Sapphire though

[ddearing]

Originally Posted by wyguy11

I’d say a case of S1 ‘18 Jumbo isn’t the worst thing you could buy right now.


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Yup. Was an even better buy 2 months ago. Wholesale prices are up 33% on this product in 2 months (from being crazy low to still being a good buy)

[wyguy11]

Originally Posted by LVDan

His key cards have Really taken off this winter. That $600 clear was a shot over the bough(bow?).

Yea I mean, I feel like as long as he and Acuna are together and thriving you may see something special with him as far as pricing. A catalyst of sorts as probably many have picked up on. Or you may argue that it’s a suppression ? Idk.


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[Cactuspies]

Originally Posted by wyguy11

I’d say a case of S1 ‘18 Jumbo isn’t the worst thing you could buy right now.


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Just paid off my 2020 Jumbo case and with the ppc deal yesterday ended up w/2 hanger 8 box cases or whatever you want to call them of 2018 S1. for under msrp it wasn't too hard to get multiple of those over 1 2019 S2 or 2018/2019 update hanger case which are over msrp by a lot. some good stuff to find hopefully. keeping me busy next week.

[UGLI baby]

Originally Posted by yrocks2001

What does everyone have coming in for S1?

I have:
-3 case PYT Break for Houston Astros for the MCRP
-2 case PYT Break for Minnesota Twins for the MCRP
-1 Personal case from BO for the MCRP

-1 Personal case from BO

For me...

1 Jumbo Case
1 Hobby Case
9 Cases PYT Blue Jays during MCRP

Considering doing 18 Case Random team each different case during MCRP for $400, but maybe I'm just bored.

[kyle121592]

I know the pricing has gone up a good bit past few days but it looks like demand is also up from the past few days of eBay sales. Last Hobby $750 and Jumbo $700 on the bay. I think BO is pretty much in line pricing wise, at least for Hobby (Jumbo currently OOS).

[ThoseBackPages]

dude, if i cant buy a blaster of this at Target, imma SPIT!

[premium1981]

Originally Posted by KhalDrogo

You're ignoring that with practically ever break ever, the best returns are on release day. Never mind that this phenomenon is the most glaring with Flagship, since it's one of the few set building sets left.

The release week prices are not worth the price difference in most instances.

Use my 2019 Update for an example.

Guy #1 buys at the $1,200 presell price. Sell it all and gets back to his break even point.

Guy #2 buys at $750 and is patient, and returns $900.

Who wins? Yea, Guy #2 made $300 less in his sales, but he is the clear winner. I know these numbers are just hypothetical, and it is different for every release and every breaker. But I am a math guy and just follow the numbers. The numbers don't add up enough for me to jump on at those first prices. Additionally, by waiting, you also get in low enough to save some cases and see if they trend up, where Guy #1 has to dump as fast as possible and hope for the best with his results.

[Stech36]

Originally Posted by premium1981

The release week prices are not worth the price difference in most instances.

Use my 2019 Update for an example.

Guy #1 buys at the $1,200 presell price. Sell it all and gets back to his break even point.

Guy #2 buys at $750 and is patient, and returns $900.

Who wins? Yea, Guy #2 made $300 less in his sales, but he is the clear winner. I know these numbers are just hypothetical, and it is different for every release and every breaker. But I am a math guy and just follow the numbers. The numbers don't add up enough for me to jump on at those first prices. Additionally, by waiting, you also get in low enough to save some cases and see if they trend up, where Guy #1 has to dump as fast as possible and hope for the best with his results.

With a $550 price difference, you’re correct. But with the $150 or so price difference in series 1, it’s worth the difference