Something to ponder for the future of our hobby - Page 2

devo · 05-12-2020, 12:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by daveyc1

People have been collecting cards since 1869. The hobby is going nowhere.

I've seen people say this before and I don't think it's a valid comparison at all.

Kids didn't have electronics or other entertainment devices in 1869 like they do today. We live in an increasingly digitized world.

Younger people of today are much more interested in "experiences" that they can post about on their Instagram or Snapchat than material items. It's a different world.

Skipscards · 05-12-2020, 01:12 PM

Here’s the reality. It’s true. More kids aren’t collecting. But it’s also true more kids are collecting. The overall population is growing. This leads to misperceptions. There’s just more people doing a lot of different things.

Eckstein is right. This topic comes up all the time. In fact, I remember hearing about it in the 80s when I was kid being told how happy the adults were that a kid was taking interest in their hobby.

The hobby will survive regardless of $150 packs. If people stopped paying those prices, the prices would adjust. The reason companies charge that much is because consumers are willing to pay it. This hobby has survived World Wars, the Junk Wax Era, Strikes, Steroids, Bubbles, and Bud Selig. It’ll be fine.

JWBlue · 05-12-2020, 01:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by rogueriver

Hello, I was away from the hobby for a few decades, yes a few decades, now that I came wandering back in I noticed a few kind of scary things we as collectors need to consider for the future.....I am a collector not an investor, but I do spend a TON of money on my collection and do not want to see it valued down to nothing so I feel every collector is in some way an investor of sorts...
That being said there is obviously a ton of money being spent right now and there was even before this Covid Deal was going on. However one thing I noticed that there are no longer Card Shops ( not nearly as many as there used to be) However everything is now online. So that might be a push for now....However there are not as many kids that are into cards as collectables. When I was a kid every Boy I knew had a card collection EVERY KID.... Now those kids are grown up and spending money but for the most part our Kids have no interest in cards........ Also the Hobby itself has morphed there used to be tons of junk wax products because they were geared towards the younger Dollar a pack kids that could afford that. Not many kids can afford a $150 a pack with 6 cards in it.... Also with just one brand controlling the market in each sport I dont see anything changing soon...I worry about the future of the hobby if a few things do not change and something is not done by some of these brands to bring back some interest to the younger generation of collectors because as we age out this hobby will as well.Also something needs to be done to keep Card Shops going because these brands like Panini seem to be more keen to selling direct to consumer and that might be good for profits today but not the future. .... Kind of like the Stamp Collectors. Just my opinion.

All valid points.

I can't say this for certain but based on the age of 1980s collectors and their current income there should be an increase the next 30 years in card prices. At that point there likely will be a decline in price for most cards due to less demand from fewer collectors.

The next 30 years should be strong for the hobby.

49erRCCollector · 05-12-2020, 01:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by devo

I've seen people say this before and I don't think it's a valid comparison at all.

Kids didn't have electronics or other entertainment devices in 1869 like they do today. We live in an increasingly digitized world.

Younger people of today are much more interested in "experiences" that they can post about on their Instagram or Snapchat than material items. It's a different world.

My 10 year old runs counter to this. My grandfather collected stuff, my mom does, I do. He will.

Not a lot of kids collected when I was a kid, I was one of the few. And I was a junk wax kid.

Billyk97 · 05-12-2020, 01:43 PM

When my dad was growing up, he didn't have any friends get into card collecting and it was during the time of 70s and 80s. That was supposed to be the big time for kids to get into card collecting.

I am bit of anomaly but I collect a lot of vintage baseball cards and a few modern stuff. I am only 22 years and I have only one or two friends that had any remote relation to card collecting. I think the hobby will be fine. People have so many different things they do besides focusing on one hobby. Collecting cards isn't the most glamorous thing to talk about with your friends, but doesn't mean people aren't collecting.

Kobe101 · 05-12-2020, 01:47 PM

This hobby is never going to die off...

The people collecting now will get a decent percentage of their kids into the hobby and others will join that like sports or want to try to make money.

I really enjoyed going to hobby shops when I was younger but now you can buy anything online from all over the world and it is cheaper.

I don’t think hobby shops closing will have that big of an impact on kids collecting. And even if it did it would be more then offset by cards being all over Instagram and Facebook.

Soxfanguy · 05-12-2020, 02:06 PM

Big problem is availability of cards. Let’s say a kid likes basketball and wants some basketball cards. The problem is there is no basketball cards left on the shelf

altaeria · 05-12-2020, 07:56 PM

The OP's basic premise is valid. It goes for the sport itself as well. As the fanbase gradually skews older and older on average, eventually there will be a tipping point.
This is why world-class symphony orchestras file for bankruptcy, and Elvis conventions have gone stale. If you don't maintain a young audience, your appeal will reach a finite expiration date.

JRX · 05-12-2020, 08:15 PM

On a long enough time frame everything will be worthless. As long as people view cards as a speculative asset, it will draw new people much like sports betting. However, 20 years from now, they won't want a say Tatis RC, they'll want whoever is next.

aric88 · 05-12-2020, 08:18 PM

The narrative that kids have always been a part of the hobby and are needed to sustain it are, in my opinion, not true. The bubblegum era of 1955-1990 was helped with top notch marketing done by Topps and also simply a lack of buying options for kids. Early on kids would often buy the packs for the gum and toss the cards. But old men like Jefferson Burdick have always made up the real core of the "hobby" of collecting. Kids were never interested in the nuances of a T-206 vs T-205 or whether a true RC is a 52 when you have a 51 Bowman. To add to that, the buying of a kid obviously is not that of an adult collector. Although I have very fond memories of collecting as a kid and I love the idea of kids taking up the hobby, I don't think its necessary for the hobby to continue to thrive.

AnkurJ · 05-12-2020, 08:48 PM

I gave a bunch of baseball cards to my 7 year old the other day. His eyes lit up when I said he could keep them! He’s been asking me about every player since and I don’t have all the answers. Still fun to see him loving collecting like his old man.

MoreToppsPlease · 05-12-2020, 09:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JRX

On a long enough time frame everything will be worthless. As long as people view cards as a speculative asset, it will draw new people much like sports betting. However, 20 years from now, they won't want a say Tatis RC, they'll want whoever is next.

True. But 20 years from now replicating technology will probably make cards and many other collectables worthless and there's no way grading companies will be able to help.

cardmole · 05-12-2020, 09:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by AnkurJ

I gave a bunch of baseball cards to my 7 year old the other day. His eyes lit up when I said he could keep them! He’s been asking me about every player since and I don’t have all the answers. Still fun to see him loving collecting like his old man.

Grand kids for me, but it's a nice feeling!

mfw13 · 05-12-2020, 09:27 PM

Who cares about kids these days will all the adult "investors" coming into the hobby looking to make a quick buck?

JWBlue · 05-12-2020, 10:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by altaeria

The OP's basic premise is valid. It goes for the sport itself as well. As the fanbase gradually skews older and older on average, eventually there will be a tipping point.
This is why world-class symphony orchestras file for bankruptcy, and Elvis conventions have gone stale. If you don't maintain a young audience, your appeal will reach a finite expiration date.

Yup. The key is to get out at the right time. Just like a stock. Stocks such as Xerox and RIM (Blackberry) once were hot commodities. Eventually they lost 90% of their value.

RIM stock was at $147 in 2008. It is now $6.00.

Xerox was $155 in 1998. Today $17.00

As I mentioned before I feel strongly we are at just the beginning of price increases for 1980s and early 1990s high grade cards that should last 30 years.

Fun times ahead.

MoreToppsPlease · 05-12-2020, 10:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JWBlue

Yup. The key is to get out at the right time. Just like a stock. Stocks such as Xerox and RIM (Blackberry) once were hot commodities. Eventually they lost 90% of their value.

RIM stock was at $147 in 2008. It is now $6.00.

Xerox was $155 in 1998. Today $17.00

As I mentioned before I feel strongly we are at just the beginning of price increases for 1980s and early 1990s high grade cards that should last 30 years.

Fun times ahead.

The issues with grading notwithstanding, there will always be an endless supply of those cards which will curb any demand. In fact, some of those sets are still rolling off the presses!

sportzking · 05-13-2020, 12:05 AM

There are too many factors that have contributed to how the hobby is today, and will also shape how it will be in the future. Business, greed, society, and collectors mentality all play a part in it.

The next generation are not taught to value physical goods and are more into digital copies. Not saying that baseball or sports card collecting will eventually end but when the older generation leaves and the next generation shows little to no interest the business/ hobby will suffer. .

Geoff G · 05-13-2020, 12:30 AM

All three of my kids are under 7 yrs old. They all love cards and collecting. All of their friends do too. Mainly because I’m always giving out / unloading my base cards on them .. but I make it fun. I think it has a lot to do with the parents not involving them. I take my oldest to all the lcs around me and he is obsessed. He also watches card breaks all the time and is a huge Phil’s pulls fan

It will only die if we let it die. I will do my part to not let it die.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

dio · 05-13-2020, 01:05 AM

When there's money to be made, there will be followers
vintage card will always have a place. Supply will get smaller and smaller over time(fire/flooding/dog), modern key rookie will probably.
Cracking packs and getting pulls is like going to casino gambling.
Casino will never die . period.

Triple B · 05-13-2020, 07:44 AM

My kids are 7 (twins, boy and girl) and they don't care about cards. They know I love collecting, but they don't care. Yet. They're into baseball, they love the Blue Jays and they know about Bo, Vladdy and the rest. As they get older, I'm sure they'll get it. I've been able to sell individual cards and take them on weekend getaways and they're starting to get it.

This isn't stamp collecting. Stamp collecting may still exist, but it's not what it used to be. I've seen stamp shops in Toronto convert to card shops before closing for good. That is a hobby that is dying with its collectors.

As long as there is baseball, and there are kids playing and parents who are interested, there will be a hobby.

Alvarez09 · 05-13-2020, 07:50 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JRX

On a long enough time frame everything will be worthless. As long as people view cards as a speculative asset, it will draw new people much like sports betting. However, 20 years from now, they won't want a say Tatis RC, they'll want whoever is next.

I HIGHLY disagree with this. If that was the case, why would anyone ever buy vintage cards?

If tatis flames out, yes, he won't retain value. If Tatis turns into a HOF level player, he will maintain and gain value.

Alvarez09 · 05-13-2020, 07:52 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MoreToppsPlease

True. But 20 years from now replicating technology will probably make cards and many other collectables worthless and there's no way grading companies will be able to help.

THen paper money will also be worthless!

Alvarez09 · 05-13-2020, 07:53 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MoreToppsPlease

The issues with grading notwithstanding, there will always be an endless supply of those cards which will curb any demand. In fact, some of those sets are still rolling off the presses!

You are saying they are still making 1989 topps?

burke438 · 05-13-2020, 08:32 AM

I think we're at the bottom right now as far as interest goes. I'm not sure about prices

You have to realize the four major sports are eventually going to push gambling hard. 5G networks around every stadium means you can live bet instantly while watching the game. Anyone who bets sports knows it's impossible to make money long term. Obviously there is something to betting live that gives you instant gratification but that's why I think breakers are here to stay and will dominate the market as it's more on par with gambling. Which, IMO, should ignite more collecting

Cheddar · 05-13-2020, 08:50 AM

I think one of the reasons for a huge boom in today's market is that there are a ton of kids that grew up in the 90's that are rediscovering the hobby with some extra disposable income in their pocket. I'm 30 and got back into in a few years ago. When I tell my friends about it, they can't believe how much has changed, but they're still very interested in it and go out and buy a few packs themselves.

I definitely plan on continuing to collect, and hope to get my kids involved one day too.

05-12-2020, 01:12 PM	#27
Skipscards Member Join Date: Oct 2012 Location: In Tribute To The Great Ryno Posts: 30,379 jlankf2 jmp4	Here’s the reality. It’s true. More kids aren’t collecting. But it’s also true more kids are collecting. The overall population is growing. This leads to misperceptions. There’s just more people doing a lot of different things. Eckstein is right. This topic comes up all the time. In fact, I remember hearing about it in the 80s when I was kid being told how happy the adults were that a kid was taking interest in their hobby. The hobby will survive regardless of $150 packs. If people stopped paying those prices, the prices would adjust. The reason companies charge that much is because consumers are willing to pay it. This hobby has survived World Wars, the Junk Wax Era, Strikes, Steroids, Bubbles, and Bud Selig. It’ll be fine. __________________ Go Royals!! #RoyalsIn2015 <---It Happened!! #TEAMZinck Sometimes it is astounding that we are able to persist in a world so full of morons.

05-12-2020, 02:06 PM	#32
Soxfanguy Member Join Date: Aug 2018 Location: White Sox Posts: 15,579 Soxfanguy	Big problem is availability of cards. Let’s say a kid likes basketball and wants some basketball cards. The problem is there is no basketball cards left on the shelf __________________ ok

05-13-2020, 01:05 AM	#44
dio Member Join Date: Sep 2016 Location: california, bay area Posts: 395 dioworld	When there's money to be made, there will be followers vintage card will always have a place. Supply will get smaller and smaller over time(fire/flooding/dog), modern key rookie will probably. Cracking packs and getting pulls is like going to casino gambling. Casino will never die . period. Last edited by dio; 05-13-2020 at 01:19 AM.

05-13-2020, 07:44 AM	#45
Triple B Member Join Date: Jan 2012 Location: Toronto Posts: 6,292	My kids are 7 (twins, boy and girl) and they don't care about cards. They know I love collecting, but they don't care. Yet. They're into baseball, they love the Blue Jays and they know about Bo, Vladdy and the rest. As they get older, I'm sure they'll get it. I've been able to sell individual cards and take them on weekend getaways and they're starting to get it. This isn't stamp collecting. Stamp collecting may still exist, but it's not what it used to be. I've seen stamp shops in Toronto convert to card shops before closing for good. That is a hobby that is dying with its collectors. As long as there is baseball, and there are kids playing and parents who are interested, there will be a hobby. __________________ Wanted Dead or Alive! 1. 1997 Bowman's Best Jose Cruz, Jr Atomic Refractor Autograph 2. 1997 SPx Jose Cruz, Jr. Grand Finale /50

05-12-2020, 01:43 PM	#30
Billyk97 Member Join Date: Jul 2019 Posts: 1	When my dad was growing up, he didn't have any friends get into card collecting and it was during the time of 70s and 80s. That was supposed to be the big time for kids to get into card collecting. I am bit of anomaly but I collect a lot of vintage baseball cards and a few modern stuff. I am only 22 years and I have only one or two friends that had any remote relation to card collecting. I think the hobby will be fine. People have so many different things they do besides focusing on one hobby. Collecting cards isn't the most glamorous thing to talk about with your friends, but doesn't mean people aren't collecting.

05-12-2020, 01:47 PM	#31
Kobe101 Member Join Date: Nov 2009 Posts: 3,410	This hobby is never going to die off... The people collecting now will get a decent percentage of their kids into the hobby and others will join that like sports or want to try to make money. I really enjoyed going to hobby shops when I was younger but now you can buy anything online from all over the world and it is cheaper. I don’t think hobby shops closing will have that big of an impact on kids collecting. And even if it did it would be more then offset by cards being all over Instagram and Facebook.

05-12-2020, 07:56 PM	#33
altaeria Member Join Date: Aug 2015 Location: CenterCityPhiladelphia Posts: 1,934 altaeria altaeria	The OP's basic premise is valid. It goes for the sport itself as well. As the fanbase gradually skews older and older on average, eventually there will be a tipping point. This is why world-class symphony orchestras file for bankruptcy, and Elvis conventions have gone stale. If you don't maintain a young audience, your appeal will reach a finite expiration date.

05-12-2020, 08:15 PM	#34
JRX Member Join Date: May 2020 Location: Charlotte, NC Posts: 16,143	On a long enough time frame everything will be worthless. As long as people view cards as a speculative asset, it will draw new people much like sports betting. However, 20 years from now, they won't want a say Tatis RC, they'll want whoever is next.

05-12-2020, 08:18 PM	#35
aric88 Member Join Date: Jul 2008 Posts: 161 aric88	The narrative that kids have always been a part of the hobby and are needed to sustain it are, in my opinion, not true. The bubblegum era of 1955-1990 was helped with top notch marketing done by Topps and also simply a lack of buying options for kids. Early on kids would often buy the packs for the gum and toss the cards. But old men like Jefferson Burdick have always made up the real core of the "hobby" of collecting. Kids were never interested in the nuances of a T-206 vs T-205 or whether a true RC is a 52 when you have a 51 Bowman. To add to that, the buying of a kid obviously is not that of an adult collector. Although I have very fond memories of collecting as a kid and I love the idea of kids taking up the hobby, I don't think its necessary for the hobby to continue to thrive.

05-12-2020, 08:48 PM	#36
AnkurJ Member Join Date: Apr 2020 Posts: 81 Faceittiger42	I gave a bunch of baseball cards to my 7 year old the other day. His eyes lit up when I said he could keep them! He’s been asking me about every player since and I don’t have all the answers. Still fun to see him loving collecting like his old man.

05-12-2020, 09:27 PM	#39
mfw13 Member Join Date: Feb 2009 Location: Seattle, WA Posts: 18,031	Who cares about kids these days will all the adult "investors" coming into the hobby looking to make a quick buck?

05-13-2020, 12:05 AM	#42
sportzking Member Join Date: Oct 2011 Location: Earth :) Posts: 1,221	There are too many factors that have contributed to how the hobby is today, and will also shape how it will be in the future. Business, greed, society, and collectors mentality all play a part in it. The next generation are not taught to value physical goods and are more into digital copies. Not saying that baseball or sports card collecting will eventually end but when the older generation leaves and the next generation shows little to no interest the business/ hobby will suffer. .

05-13-2020, 12:30 AM	#43
Geoff G Member Join Date: Jan 2019 Location: Ventura Posts: 1,519	All three of my kids are under 7 yrs old. They all love cards and collecting. All of their friends do too. Mainly because I’m always giving out / unloading my base cards on them .. but I make it fun. I think it has a lot to do with the parents not involving them. I take my oldest to all the lcs around me and he is obsessed. He also watches card breaks all the time and is a huge Phil’s pulls fan It will only die if we let it die. I will do my part to not let it die. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

05-13-2020, 08:32 AM	#49
burke438 Member Join Date: May 2019 Location: Cincinnati Posts: 230 go_bucks_osu	I think we're at the bottom right now as far as interest goes. I'm not sure about prices You have to realize the four major sports are eventually going to push gambling hard. 5G networks around every stadium means you can live bet instantly while watching the game. Anyone who bets sports knows it's impossible to make money long term. Obviously there is something to betting live that gives you instant gratification but that's why I think breakers are here to stay and will dominate the market as it's more on par with gambling. Which, IMO, should ignite more collecting

05-13-2020, 08:50 AM	#50
Cheddar Member Join Date: Dec 2016 Location: Chicago, IL Posts: 1,117 Cheddar1012	I think one of the reasons for a huge boom in today's market is that there are a ton of kids that grew up in the 90's that are rediscovering the hobby with some extra disposable income in their pocket. I'm 30 and got back into in a few years ago. When I tell my friends about it, they can't believe how much has changed, but they're still very interested in it and go out and buy a few packs themselves. I definitely plan on continuing to collect, and hope to get my kids involved one day too.