Let's talk about Card Cook Groups/Discord Chats

[auctionjmm]

Originally Posted by gabballplayer14

I edited the OP to take out certain opinionated statements, and mark everything else as "Fact" or "Opinion" for the people who cant distinguish between the two.

Thank you, because those first 4 or 5 responses to this thread seemed to imply that they took that as all fact. The buyer's groups shouldn't be any real surprise. The real surprise was your revelations about the nature of the group, which as you've pointed out is your opinion. And I can accept your opinion even though mine is different. But it's good to be clear about what is fact and what is theory and I'm glad you cleared that up.

[NoleinJax]

Originally Posted by auctionjmm

I said this in the other thread as well. I don't know that anyone is doubting the existence of buyer's groups so the proof shown in the OP wasn't all that eye opening to me. But equating this to a scam, comparing it to Bitcoin, calling for regulation, etc. would imply that there is dumping going on, which in turn leaves a lot of "victims" holding worthless investments in the end. Instead it feels like we've been in a 3-4 year "pump" right now and everyone keeps holding their breath waiting for this massive dump that just isn't happening.

The majority of the OP was opinion-based. It sucks that so many folks took that as all facts. The only factual information we were shown is the existence of buyer's groups. The "profile" of teenagers in debt, how they run their scheme, the eBay returns, intent to manipulate the market....all conjecture at this point.

Even in those screenshots, there is no evidence of collusion to manipulate a price. The "tout" is giving advice on undervalued cards and his group, who pays for that advice, invests in the undervalued cards. Gary V has been pointing out undervalued cards for a few years now and his followers are investing in those cards. It's like when Goldman Sachs "upgrades" a stock and boom that sucker takes off. Happens every time. Stock buyers follow Goldman Sachs like card buyers follow Gary V. I would put Warren Buffet in that category as well as every time he announces a big buy or sell, people follow suit.

So you have to ask yourself the question...are these influencers all just a bunch of con men, and are their followers "in" on the gig (actively participating in pump and dumps) or are we merely looking at investors sharing advice with prospective investors who are looking to put money into something with a long term payout?

There has been so much media coverage of trading cards over the last few years and lots of talk of cards being a good way to diversify a portfolio during turbulent stock market times. I am a believer that this is all very innocent. I think cards are becoming interesting as investment securities and more and more people want in on it, which is GREAT for the hobby. Influencers are making money on subscriptions of course and you can debate the ethics of charging for investment advice, but that doesn't mean the buyers are all scheming to pump and dump and manipulate a market. Yes, they want their investment to go up, and yes at some point in time they will cash in (like when we retire and finally sell off the years and years of stocks we have accumulated in our 401ks, IRAs, etc.) but that's perfectly okay.

Can we get a like button up in here Blowout.

[gabballplayer14]

Originally Posted by auctionjmm

Thank you, because those first 4 or 5 responses to this thread seemed to imply that they took that as all fact. The buyer's groups shouldn't be any real surprise. The real surprise was your revelations about the nature of the group, which as you've pointed out is your opinion. And I can accept your opinion even though mine is different. But it's good to be clear about what is fact and what is theory and I'm glad you cleared that up.

No worries at all, I'm a very reasonable person.

As far as the groups being well known though, I think that is where you and I differ. Aside from the large number of people who have commented in the thread that they didn't know this was happening, I've recevied a decent number of PM's in some form saying "Thank You", or "I had no idea this was happening". I knew this had been going on for a while, as did a handful of other members, but didn't have any pinpoint groups or "proof" that it was. I provided specific examples (which I have more of, but the Albies, Vides Rivera, and "OG Prints" were the most relevant) of the manipulation that occurs and people are still shouting from the rooftops that this is fake and mock the notion that it is currently happening.

[mfw13]

Originally Posted by auctionjmm

The "tout" is giving advice on undervalued cards and his group, who pays for that advice, invests in the undervalued cards. Gary V has been pointing out undervalued cards for a few years now and his followers are investing in those cards.

So you have to ask yourself the question...are these influencers all just a bunch of con men, and are their followers "in" on the gig (actively participating in pump and dumps) or are we merely looking at investors sharing advice with prospective investors who are looking to put money into something with a long term payout?

The unethical part is when the tout fails to disclose the fact that they have previously established a position in a card, and then are selling off that position at the same time they are recommending it to others (i.e. the pump & dump).

Then they use the cash generated from the "dump" to establish a position in a new card to then "pump". It's almost impossible to prove, but that's what's going on.

It's a strategy copied almost directly from manipulators of penny stocks, where this kind of stuff has been going on for years.

[Lonewolf]

Originally Posted by mfw13

The unethical part is when the tout fails to disclose the fact that they have previously established a position in a card, and then are selling off that position at the same time they are recommending it to others (i.e. the pump & dump).

Then they use the cash generated from the "dump" to establish a position in a new card to then "pump". It's almost impossible to prove, but that's what's going on.

It's a strategy copied almost directly from manipulators of penny stocks, where this kind of stuff has been going on for years.

Perfect response.

[gabballplayer14]

Originally Posted by mfw13

The unethical part is when the tout fails to disclose the fact that they have previously established a position in a card, and then are selling off that position at the same time they are recommending it to others (i.e. the pump & dump).

Then they use the cash generated from the "dump" to establish a position in a new card to then "pump". It's almost impossible to prove, but that's what's going on.

It's a strategy copied almost directly from manipulators of penny stocks, where this kind of stuff has been going on for years.

Great point, and one that I completely disregarded in the OP.

[auctionjmm]

Originally Posted by mfw13

The unethical part is when the tout fails to disclose the fact that they have previously established a position in a card, and then are selling off that position at the same time they are recommending it to others (i.e. the pump & dump).

Then they use the cash generated from the "dump" to establish a position in a new card to then "pump". It's almost impossible to prove, but that's what's going on.

It's a strategy copied almost directly from manipulators of penny stocks, where this kind of stuff has been going on for years.

The reason it is impossible to prove (assuming this happens on a large scale) is that the market is absorbing those cards very well right now. Stock and bitcoin pump and dumps were devastating. People lost millions. The ripple effect of the dump was blatant. A guy who has a position in 20 Acuna rookies and then dumps them into a hot market of 300 rookies is never going to be detected. Which is why I believe there are far more legitimate buyers out there than people looking to con. If it's happening, it's on such a small scale that we don't even notice it right now.

The other shoe will drop if someone with millions invested in a scheme decides to sell that position. If you wake up one day and find 500 Giannis rookie listings from one seller, then you might have a lead and can trace that seller potentially to a group he may have started. That would be good investigative work if it ever happens.

[WallyatJCCards]

Guess I should close my shop and start a hype page. 1989 Topps Gary Sheffield rookies, very rare and undervalued...

[mfw13]

Originally Posted by auctionjmm

The reason it is impossible to prove (assuming this happens on a large scale) is that the market is absorbing those cards very well right now. Stock and bitcoin pump and dumps were devastating. People lost millions. The ripple effect of the dump was blatant. A guy who has a position in 20 Acuna rookies and then dumps them into a hot market of 300 rookies is never going to be detected. Which is why I believe there are far more legitimate buyers out there than people looking to con. If it's happening, it's on such a small scale that we don't even notice it right now.

The other shoe will drop if someone with millions invested in a scheme decides to sell that position. If you wake up one day and find 500 Giannis rookie listings from one seller, then you might have a lead and can trace that seller potentially to a group he may have started. That would be good investigative work if it ever happens.

Emphasis on the "RIGHT NOW".....let's see where things are in a few months....or a year. Prices usually only start to drop once the pump ends.

I'd also note that the selling of positions is likely done through multiple seller accounts precisely so as to hide the origin of the cards and to avoid spooking the markets.

[aepplen8]

I agree with the majority of this post. I do believe there’s more legit buyers than not in regard to hot markets with key players and cards. However, one thing you didn’t necessarily address was lesser cards of stars or random players/insert cards seeing insane increases in price. I also think people are noticing it which is why it’s frustrating. This may be a terrible example but the Zion Net Marvels insert card had been on a roller coaster up from 4/24-5/10 for what reason? His more important prizm rookies haven’t seen the same growth and I’m pretty sure most would view that as the superior card. This card is starting to decrease in value (albeit at a lower pace) after doubling practically over two days.

Originally Posted by auctionjmm

The reason it is impossible to prove (assuming this happens on a large scale) is that the market is absorbing those cards very well right now. Stock and bitcoin pump and dumps were devastating. People lost millions. The ripple effect of the dump was blatant. A guy who has a position in 20 Acuna rookies and then dumps them into a hot market of 300 rookies is never going to be detected. Which is why I believe there are far more legitimate buyers out there than people looking to con. If it's happening, it's on such a small scale that we don't even notice it right now.

The other shoe will drop if someone with millions invested in a scheme decides to sell that position. If you wake up one day and find 500 Giannis rookie listings from one seller, then you might have a lead and can trace that seller potentially to a group he may have started. That would be good investigative work if it ever happens.

[dmanrico]

Is there an example of a card that was pumped where we have now seen the dump come to fruition? That would be interesting to know.

[KhalDrogo]

Originally Posted by mfw13

Emphasis on the "RIGHT NOW".....let's see where things are in a few months....or a year. Prices usually only start to drop once the pump ends.

I'd also note that the selling of positions is likely done through multiple seller accounts precisely so as to hide the origin of the cards and to avoid spooking the markets.

You're making the mistake of looking at the logistics of past pump and dumps and trying to apply them here.

[KhalDrogo]

Originally Posted by dmanrico

Is there an example of a card that was pumped where we have now seen the dump come to fruition? That would be interesting to know.

Not recently. Although the naysayers will point to any price decline as evidence of a dump. Completely disregarding the normal ebb and flow of the pricing for any commodity.

[Tim]

Originally Posted by mfw13

Emphasis on the "RIGHT NOW".....let's see where things are in a few months....or a year. Prices usually only start to drop once the pump ends.

But you have been doom and glooming for years and still no vindication. Why should this be any different?

[dmanrico]

Originally Posted by KhalDrogo

Not recently. Although the naysayers will point to any price decline as evidence of a dump. Completely disregarding the normal ebb and flow of the pricing for any commodity.

I mean, we keep having these claims of "pump and dump" but I can't come up with an example of a dump scenario. But I will admit I'm not as conversant in the broader the market as others, so was legitimately interested in an example.

[auctionjmm]

Originally Posted by aepplen8

I agree with the majority of this post. I do believe there’s more legit buyers than not in regard to hot markets with key players and cards. However, one thing you didn’t necessarily address was lesser cards of stars or random players/insert cards seeing insane increases in price. I also think people are noticing it which is why it’s frustrating. This may be a terrible example but the Zion Net Marvels insert card had been on a roller coaster up from 4/24-5/10 for what reason? His more important prizm rookies haven’t seen the same growth and I’m pretty sure most would view that as the superior card. This card is starting to decrease in value (albeit at a lower pace) after doubling practically over two days.

The ENTIRE Net Marvels set did this all at the same time. I was fortunate enough to have been sitting on I think 86 of them. All sold within the last 2 weeks to many different buyers with no returns (yet). Case prices have since doubled, and so have case buys (on DealerNet..shops looking to reload). The Crunch Time set had a residual bump as well.

I admittedly do not know why the sudden spike, nor do I know if there were bad intentions behind it. It's tough to know that. Heck, the fact that I unloaded close to 90 of them at once could easily make me look like the tout lol. Is it suspicious that Auctionjmm dumped a ton of Net Marvels into the market 2 days after the spike? To some it may appear that way. I obviously had nothing to do with the spike but I was happy to take advantage of it. There are definitely unanswered questions when it comes to these spikes.

[aepplen8]

Originally Posted by auctionjmm

The ENTIRE Net Marvels set did this all at the same time. I was fortunate enough to have been sitting on I think 86 of them. All sold within the last 2 weeks to many different buyers with no returns (yet). Case prices have since doubled, and so have case buys (on DealerNet..shops looking to reload). The Crunch Time set had a residual bump as well.

I admittedly do not know why the sudden spike, nor do I know if there were bad intentions behind it. It's tough to know that. Heck, the fact that I unloaded close to 90 of them at once could easily make me look like the tout lol. Is it suspicious that Auctionjmm dumped a ton of Net Marvels into the market 2 days after the spike? To some it may appear that way. I obviously had nothing to do with the spike but I was happy to take advantage of it. There are definitely unanswered questions when it comes to these spikes.

I appreciate all of the info as I’m not much of a basketball card market expert(or any market for that matter). I don’t blame you for selling after seeing the sudden spike, as I assume nearly all of us would do the same. I also tend to look at this from a supply demand perspective and would have to do a deeper dive into the quantities sold to make any actual judgement. My mind just starts to wonder though as to why they could sit for a while at a relatively consistent price and then suddenly demand shoots through the roof which causes the price increase. This could then justify the “cooling” period as people (like you or me) see these rapid increases and sell whatever we have laying around to increase the supply, although not enough to outweigh the impact demand has had on the price. You addressed it, I think the real question boils down to who is causing this demand bump. Maybe it’s investors, maybe it’s new money coming in, maybe it’s collectors who are now appreciating the cards more since they’ve been in the spotlight. Your guess is as good as mine, and I won’t pretend to know any more than others even if I have my suspicions, but that’s all subjective.

[MoreToppsPlease]

Originally Posted by auctionjmm

The reason it is impossible to prove (assuming this happens on a large scale) is that the market is absorbing those cards very well right now. Stock and bitcoin pump and dumps were devastating. People lost millions. The ripple effect of the dump was blatant. A guy who has a position in 20 Acuna rookies and then dumps them into a hot market of 300 rookies is never going to be detected. Which is why I believe there are far more legitimate buyers out there than people looking to con. If it's happening, it's on such a small scale that we don't even notice it right now.

The other shoe will drop if someone with millions invested in a scheme decides to sell that position. If you wake up one day and find 500 Giannis rookie listings from one seller, then you might have a lead and can trace that seller potentially to a group he may have started. That would be good investigative work if it ever happens.

The many moving parts and anonymous, unregulated hobby nature makes it HIGHLY probable that people are manipulating and molding the chaos for profit. “Chaos is a ladder.”

Anyone can hold almost any position without someone else knowing about it. People have been anonymously hoarding and pimping in the name of profit since the mid ‘90s in the hobby all the while setting market prices. It’s just grown from there, especially with prospecting.

So the reason why all this works is that it will almost always be incredibly tough to expose manipulation through the chaos. But sometimes it can be shown - consider the 1993 Finest Refractors example when a guy who owned tons of sets died and the cards were put up for auction all at once. Without him pricing on that set wouldn’t have been as high.

It’s also kind of hard to think that manufacturers, auction houses and grading companies aren’t pulling strings in all of this as they have the most to gain.

The other part of all this are those who rely on the hobby for their primary or side gigs. They will always talk up ANY ridiculously high price because they know it brings them profit opportunities. Even though these folks don’t know who may be trying to manipulate the market, they can ALWAYS be relied upon by the Cook groups to join in making something more expensive. Good god, think of all the bears on this forum alone.

On a smaller scale, a person or group could be completely happy with, say, only 10-20K profit for a particular scheme and could manipulate a particular market to achieve a dollar goal with a small stash. Rinse, wash and repeat a dozen times over the course of a year and they’re very happy. They’d do some of the work themselves, and then contract with the Cook and Discord groups to do the rest. Easy peasy.

[auctionjmm]

Originally Posted by MoreToppsPlease

The many moving parts and anonymous, unregulated hobby nature makes it HIGHLY probable that people are manipulating and molding the chaos for profit. “Chaos is a ladder.”

Anyone can hold almost any position without someone else knowing about it. People have been anonymously hoarding and pimping in the name of profit since the mid ‘90s in the hobby all the while setting market prices. It’s just grown from there, especially with prospecting.

So the reason why all this works is that it will almost always be incredibly tough to expose manipulation through the chaos. But sometimes it can be shown - consider the 1993 Finest Refractors example when a guy who owned tons of sets died and the cards were put up for auction all at once. Without him pricing on that set wouldn’t have been as high.

It’s also kind of hard to think that manufacturers, auction houses and grading companies aren’t pulling strings in all of this as they have the most to gain.

The other part of all this are those who rely on the hobby for their primary or side gigs. They will always talk up ANY ridiculously high price because they know it brings them profit opportunities. Even though these folks don’t know who may be trying to manipulate the market, they can ALWAYS be relied upon by the Cook groups to join in making something more expensive. Good god, think of all the bears on this forum alone.

On a smaller scale, a person or group could be completely happy with, say, only 10-20K profit for a particular scheme and could manipulate a particular market to achieve a dollar goal with a small stash. Rinse, wash and repeat a dozen times over the course of a year and they’re very happy. They’d do some of the work themselves, and then contract with the Cook and Discord groups to do the rest. Easy peasy.

All very true. But I will say, the 1993 Finest example, while it may be considered "manipulated" by a single buyer, was not done with ill intent. The fact he took those sets to his grave tells you he really wanted to collect them. Ginter RIP cards went through the same phase. One or two buyers manipulated the entire market BUT they were all for PC. You had to fight those guys for the cards. Topps flagship black borders as well. At least those markets were manipulated by genuine collectors who were prepared to outbid anyone who competed with them.

[dmanrico]

Originally Posted by auctionjmm

All very true. But I will say, the 1993 Finest example, while it may be considered "manipulated" by a single buyer, was not done with ill intent. The fact he took those sets to his grave tells you he really wanted to collect them. Ginter RIP cards went through the same phase. One or two buyers manipulated the entire market BUT they were all for PC. You had to fight those guys for the cards. Topps flagship black borders as well. At least those markets were manipulated by genuine collectors who were prepared to outbid anyone who competed with them.

I think everyone would agree those 93 Finest were sold the entirely wrong way upon his unfortunate passing. That had a huge factor on valuation as well.

[KhalDrogo]

Originally Posted by auctionjmm

All very true. But I will say, the 1993 Finest example, while it may be considered "manipulated" by a single buyer, was not done with ill intent. The fact he took those sets to his grave tells you he really wanted to collect them. Ginter RIP cards went through the same phase. One or two buyers manipulated the entire market BUT they were all for PC. You had to fight those guys for the cards. Topps flagship black borders as well. At least those markets were manipulated by genuine collectors who were prepared to outbid anyone who competed with them.

Right. It’s not really manipulation for buyers to buy up copies of a certain card or set. It’s just self fulfilling. I identify a card I think is undervalued. I buy up every copy I can. I watch the price rise because I have cornered the market.

Sports cards are perfect mark for these strategies. It’s an emotional hobby. Total production may be high, but print run for any limited issue is quite low, and availability is even lower. Lastly, the buy in for these cards is so cheap. A couple thousand dollars can get you dozens of cards.

[gabballplayer14]

Originally Posted by auctionjmm

The ENTIRE Net Marvels set did this all at the same time. I was fortunate enough to have been sitting on I think 86 of them. All sold within the last 2 weeks to many different buyers with no returns (yet). Case prices have since doubled, and so have case buys (on DealerNet..shops looking to reload). The Crunch Time set had a residual bump as well.

I admittedly do not know why the sudden spike, nor do I know if there were bad intentions behind it. It's tough to know that. Heck, the fact that I unloaded close to 90 of them at once could easily make me look like the tout lol. Is it suspicious that Auctionjmm dumped a ton of Net Marvels into the market 2 days after the spike? To some it may appear that way. I obviously had nothing to do with the spike but I was happy to take advantage of it. There are definitely unanswered questions when it comes to these spikes.

Interesting that these were brought up. I didnt really pay attention to these at first since they are Basketball, and wanted to keep the thread focused on baseball.

Apparently this was the first post by the tout about the Marvels:



Then this *shocking* revelation later that night that the Marvels are trending upwards, and the second response is the tout with the . Notice the message after that "There's literally no more Lebron Marvels wow we took stock".



These were just sent in arandom order, but its all about the Marvels inserts.

Gotta love the "Yall really bought out all the Marvels gaht dam".

Looks like some of the members in the group realize the effect this dude has on the others and cautions against blindly buying his "picks". Curious if any of those people are still around in the group (and on Blowout) and can chime in. I cant imagine questioning the "leader" would go over well in the group.




Lucky for you that you happened to have a stack of them, hopefully for your sake none of them get returned.

[GeechQuest]

Originally Posted by gabballplayer14

Interesting that these were brought up. I didnt really pay attention to these at first since they are Basketball, and wanted to keep the thread focused on baseball.

What's funny is I just checked my messages and the night of 4/26 is when these exploded. I messaged a buddy about it an just laughed as they fell one per pack of Donruss.

Ride the wave.

[WalkOffBalker]

I am not a member of one of these groups and I agree that increased demand hurts the availability/price of new releases, but I appreciate the posts talking you Conspiracy Theorists back from the ledge.

There is nothing nefarious in the original post. The Albies snippet actually includes some backing info on why the card may undervalued and what would need to happen to see a decent price increase. Pumping and Dumping is taking some worthless card, hyping it up and then causing a crash during the selloff since there was nothing of substance to begin with. As others have mentioned, where are the Dumps and chaotic crashes?

It seems like a lot of you are upset there are just new players in the market creating more demand for cards you could previously get with relative ease.

I've collected for 30+ years and not going anywhere. I've often had the belief that all cards were undervalued so it's nice to see values increasing. We used to joke about opening packs and immediately losing 90% of our money. Well, now we're more on the playing field of opening packs and having cards that are closer to what the packs cost. What's the harm in that?

I haven't even looked at the Topps 2020 stuff, but it seemed like a product marketed to a different generation, to get more people back in to collecting. It's not everyone's cup of tea and wasn't meant to be. It seems to have accomplished its goal. We talk all the time about how unfortunate it would be if the hobby died out, but here we are getting upset that a new product is introduced that some people find value in and it brings them in to the hobby.

[WalkOffBalker]

Adding another thought, the original images aren't much different than the exact things we have been talking about on this message board for years, speculating and reasoning why some players may be undervalued and due for a correction. Instead of the information being in message board, back and forth format these images are just putting out investment snippets that are more concise with price targets.

Isn't every "collection" an investment we hope to make money on at some point?