2019-20 NT FOTL - Page 16

cash4cards · 06-04-2020, 10:54 AM

If the "masses" are so excited at buying under $10,000 then why aren't they just buying last years boxes? Wouldn't those seem like more of a bargain under $10,000 knowing that Luka sells at 4x that?

chuckerrrr · 06-04-2020, 10:56 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by KhalDrogo

I've considered at $7500 for months now. Not sure it's the best play though. Pretty sure I can get bigger returns from certain singles.

Smart man.

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DJP73 · 06-04-2020, 10:56 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by anm2231

Thanks for your insight that’s been mentioned about 300 times already

You need to go back to bed my friend, But then again your probably a kid on here.

Bearsfan54 · 06-04-2020, 10:56 AM

$19,687. Still available.

sweat47 · 06-04-2020, 10:56 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cash4cards

If the "masses" are so excited at buying under $10,000 then why aren't they just buying last years boxes? Wouldn't those seem like more of a bargain under $10,000 knowing that Luka sells at 4x that?

Pretty sure last comp on last years FOTL was about $10,500.

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ExpFacilitators · 06-04-2020, 10:57 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blevins26

Man, this reminds me of Bitcoin in 2017. Sitting there at, like, $8,000 and thinking "this might go to $10,000!" Then, it zooms past that to almost $20,000 in a matter of weeks, not months.

And then it all ended.

Because it wasn't real. It was euphoria. It was people thinking "I know it's crazy to buy this at $11k, $12k, 15k, etc but it just keeps going up!"

Some people made money along the way. A lot of people will tell you they did. A lot of people lie.

This hobby is just like crypto in 2017. Prices keep going up and we, the people who have been in this and studied it the longest, know it isn't based on anything other than speculation. Not only are box prices going up, they're accelerating upwards. It's the Greater Fool Theory.

Breakers might be able to buy this and do ok.

There's no other way to actually open a box of this and do well other than being 1 in 100 boxes lucky.

So, what will happen is that people will buy boxes and look for a greater fool to sell them to. It's worked for the past few years.

But, at some point, those people who bought Bitcoin at $19,000 couldn't find the next fool to sell them to. Eventually, that will happen to this hobby as well.

I feel like we would be friends.

ExpFacilitators · 06-04-2020, 10:58 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ninjacookies

Majority of people aren't buying to rip.....

(we knew this, right?)

People will make boatloads of moolah tomorrow. I unfortunately won't be one of them, because all my expendable money is tied up in 'worthless' bitcoin and alts.

sucks that you cant sell any BTC for USD to take advantage of the boatloads. Tough break.

KhalDrogo · 06-04-2020, 10:58 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cash4cards

If the "masses" are so excited at buying under $10,000 then why aren't they just buying last years boxes? Wouldn't those seem like more of a bargain under $10,000 knowing that Luka sells at 4x that?

Where can I buy a 2018 box for under $10k?

beavers · 06-04-2020, 10:58 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cash4cards

If the "masses" are so excited at buying under $10,000 then why aren't they just buying last years boxes? Wouldn't those seem like more of a bargain under $10,000 knowing that Luka sells at 4x that?

I expect that to happen. All year long we have seen last seasons products rise in value as this years version gets released. Mosaic is a great example. Two months ago nobody gave a #@#@#@#@ about last years Mosaic, but boom this years gets released and interest is suddenly at all time highs. It is currently happening with Noir too.

Dnic · 06-04-2020, 10:59 AM

I think this is hilarious honestly bottom should have been around 5500-6k imo since that's about what these would have been flipped for but I honestly like how they cut out the middle men, call me spiteful since I was never able to get any FOTL. But I would have opened it before had I got some unlike 90% of people on here that flip product for self gain.

Supercomputers · 06-04-2020, 11:00 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ExpFacilitators

I feel like we would be friends.

I would love for all to show restraint and leave it there till it hits the floor to make Panini rethink what they are doing. Im sure you can make money at 7500 but why give them the satisfaction just for listing it 30K makes them look bad. Just like all there stupid Block Chain cards.

Sikkcaden · 06-04-2020, 11:00 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Packerfan

Thanks for the responses guys and gals. I too think there is "value" at the bottom. Last years NT FOTL is trading in the range, why cant this years?

It may be able to, but last years class is significantly better than this years class.

But regardless: with that $7,500 you would be able to snag an SGA NT RPA, a JJJ NT RPA, a MPJ RPA and have enough left over to grab some RPA's of some of this years guys too.

DALLASTILL · 06-04-2020, 11:00 AM

In summary, good luck to anyone breaking this. I hope people do because I enjoy seeing what comes out. It’s going to be very difficult from a ROI perspective as we all know. From a resale/investment perspective...it’s just not there. Assuming you buy a box at 9k..factor in tax...you gonna re-sell a high end product like this to someone on eBay for 13k down the road to make 1k? It’s just not there on this unless you have funds and want to bust. There are people who can and will and I wish them the best of luck. It’s still not there.

KidKards101 · 06-04-2020, 11:00 AM

I don't get why the floor is high at $7500. Why can't it be to say $500-$1000 which is what these boxes probably retail for?

GeechQuest · 06-04-2020, 11:02 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Packerfan

Thanks for the responses guys and gals. I too think there is "value" at the bottom. Last years NT FOTL is trading in the range, why cant this years?

Not much volume in that range. Not to say this wouldn’t have volume there, but 18/19 doesn’t.

Bearsfan54 · 06-04-2020, 11:03 AM

Panini is like a vampire, then want to suck out as much $$$ as they can.

Quote:

Originally Posted by KidKards101

I don't get why the floor is high at $7500. Why can't it be to say $500-$1000 which is what these boxes probably retail for?

Dnic · 06-04-2020, 11:03 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by KidKards101

I don't get why the floor is high at $7500. Why can't it be to say $500-$1000 which is what these boxes probably retail for?

Because everyone with bots were getting them and reselling them for like 10x markup its smart from a buisness point of view, too bad for all the flippers how will they make money to feed their kids now though...

Sikkcaden · 06-04-2020, 11:03 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GeechQuest

Not much volume in that range. Not to say this wouldn’t have volume there, but 18/19 doesn’t.

It also appears this print run was bigger than 18/19.

GeechQuest · 06-04-2020, 11:04 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by KhalDrogo

Where can I buy a 2018 box for under $10k?

Go put out on SM you’re buying for $8-9K. You’ll get some offers.

KhalDrogo · 06-04-2020, 11:05 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GeechQuest

Go put out on SM you’re buying for $8-9K. You’ll get some offers.

I don’t even know what SM is!

GeechQuest · 06-04-2020, 11:05 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sikkcaden

It also appears this print run was bigger than 18/19.

It’s grown 33%. Higher price and more available, where there isn’t much volume in last years at that price.

Edit: bad math. Even greater than 33%, more RPAs at a higher print run. Oops.

GeechQuest · 06-04-2020, 11:05 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by KhalDrogo

I don’t even know what SM is!

Social media man! I’ve seen you on the gram!

Tonic3 · 06-04-2020, 11:08 AM

They only made 920 boxes of this last year, a lot of which got opened early because people were able to get them at $750. So the remaining unopened boxes are scarce/limited and garner more value.

This year they're making 1650 boxes, a lot of which won't be opened because people will have at least $8,000 ish into each box. That means the supply will be higher for longer because very few individuals are buying to open.

Kyle213 · 06-04-2020, 11:11 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Tonic3

They only made 920 boxes of this last year, a lot of which got opened early because people were able to get them at $750. So the remaining unopened boxes are scarce/limited and garner more value.

This year they're making 1650 boxes, a lot of which won't be opened because people will have at least $8,000 ish into each box. That means the supply will be higher for longer because very few individuals are buying to open.

I thought there were 1150 boxes last year

Deadshot · 06-04-2020, 11:13 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by KhalDrogo

I don’t even know what SM is!

06-04-2020, 10:56 AM	#379
Bearsfan54 Member Join Date: Apr 2013 Location: Illinois Posts: 4,298 Soxfan351 Twitter - Dtheater65	$19,687. Still available. __________________ 🤘 Heavy Metal 24/7 (Dream Theater, FFDP, Trivium, Symphony X) 🤘 Action, Horror, Sci-fi Movies Collect Current Chicago Bears

06-04-2020, 10:54 AM	#376
cash4cards Member Join Date: May 2017 Location: Terre Haute, Indiana Posts: 403 throckmj2004	If the "masses" are so excited at buying under $10,000 then why aren't they just buying last years boxes? Wouldn't those seem like more of a bargain under $10,000 knowing that Luka sells at 4x that?

06-04-2020, 10:59 AM	#385
Dnic Member Join Date: Nov 2017 Location: Colorado Posts: 3,277	I think this is hilarious honestly bottom should have been around 5500-6k imo since that's about what these would have been flipped for but I honestly like how they cut out the middle men, call me spiteful since I was never able to get any FOTL. But I would have opened it before had I got some unlike 90% of people on here that flip product for self gain.

06-04-2020, 11:00 AM	#388
DALLASTILL Member Join Date: Jan 2011 Location: Illinois Posts: 1,719 dallas0005	In summary, good luck to anyone breaking this. I hope people do because I enjoy seeing what comes out. It’s going to be very difficult from a ROI perspective as we all know. From a resale/investment perspective...it’s just not there. Assuming you buy a box at 9k..factor in tax...you gonna re-sell a high end product like this to someone on eBay for 13k down the road to make 1k? It’s just not there on this unless you have funds and want to bust. There are people who can and will and I wish them the best of luck. It’s still not there.

06-04-2020, 11:00 AM	#389
KidKards101 Member Join Date: Feb 2016 Posts: 1,683	I don't get why the floor is high at $7500. Why can't it be to say $500-$1000 which is what these boxes probably retail for?

06-04-2020, 11:08 AM	#398
Tonic3 Member Join Date: Mar 2008 Location: Southwest MI Posts: 2,390	They only made 920 boxes of this last year, a lot of which got opened early because people were able to get them at $750. So the remaining unopened boxes are scarce/limited and garner more value. This year they're making 1650 boxes, a lot of which won't be opened because people will have at least $8,000 ish into each box. That means the supply will be higher for longer because very few individuals are buying to open.