2019-20 NT FOTL

[adam711]

Originally Posted by Spacemanspif

for the "2018 goes for $10k" people using that to set the baseline, where are you seeing these sales? I see one up for auction right now, which will maybe give an indication of where the market is at, but otherwise I see zero sold on ebay. Listing price and sold price are very different things, and with many things right now, the "flip potential" carries a huge amount of risk, as I'm not seeing much volume for even Prizm at the current price point. I passed because 1) I don't have $8k+ to throw at this, and 2) there's very limited upside. I think going above a $10k price point is just a mental hurdle most people are not willing to pass. So even if I bought at the floor + tax, I'd be looking at maybe 20% maximum profit? There's a lot of other / better ways for me to invest that much cash

One sold on 5/23 for 10,499.95

[dany85]

Originally Posted by Asian62150

I forgot that this year's Collegiate Immaculate and Collegiate NT were loaded.

If they did anything similar to NT FOTL, this could be a huge game changer.

If they were smart, they loaded them up so they could justify their insane pricing.

This. For those comparing this year's prices with last year - the correct comparison should be 2018-19 NT FOTL + 2018-19 NT = 2019-20 NT FOTL.

In this year's FOTL you get the guaranteed RPA + a 50% chance at a second RPA (which makes these boxes worth a regular NT box plus a FOTL box).

Now I just wonder -- who will be the person that opens this box and gets two Zion RPAs, or a Zion and a JA RPA? Probably nobody, but that would be cool to see.

[1dayshow]

I absolutely think that $7500 is a steal. I was one of the first few to secure my 2 boxes at $18K so I was able to beat the rush.

This gave me more time to file for bankruptcy and for my wife of 10 years to file for divorce due to "Spousal Stupidity."

[dcarado]

Originally Posted by exospheer

Once people see what Zion and Ja RPA will sell for and the season starting back up, these will go up. 1.5 RPA per box is no joke.

The additional RPA every other box... hasn't NT FOTL always had the chance of additional RPAs or is that just in football? And if I remember correctly, I don't think I've ever seen one of those additional RPAs be a top player. It does add value, but I'd expect to see some Bitadze /30 + Fernando /99 boxes, nothing crazy. I'll be surprised if a Zion or Ja true rpa end up in a FOTL box. It would do wonders for the value of these sealed though.

[IndyKMB]

Never expected these would get to the 7.5K floor, as I would probably have pulled the trigger on one. As such, I was out and nowhere near a computer when the Dutch Auction went off. Oh well.

Much luck to those that purchased to open...all 3 of you
And to those that purchased to flip, as I would have, hope it works out for you all as well.

[gomiamigo]

I can't imagine a true Zion rpa/99 in these boxes, but I guess we will find out.

[KhalDrogo]

Originally Posted by dcarado

The additional RPA every other box... hasn't NT FOTL always had the chance of additional RPAs or is that just in football? And if I remember correctly, I don't think I've ever seen one of those additional RPAs be a top player. It does add value, but I'd expect to see some Bitadze /30 + Fernando /99 boxes, nothing crazy. I'll be surprised if a Zion or Ja true rpa end up in a FOTL box. It would do wonders for the value of these sealed though.

2018 BKB did not have any extra RPA that I can recall. I believe two Logomen did surface. It was basically the RPA and $100 worth of junk.

The extra RPA is great. 825 extra RPAs in the run. But I would think Panini would utilize the increased print run in the horizontals so that they don't water down the regular hobby boxes.

[insanepjc]

Originally Posted by 1dayshow

I absolutely think that $7500 is a steal. I was one of the first few to secure my 2 boxes at $18K so I was able to beat the rush.

This gave me more time to file for bankruptcy and for my wife of 10 years to file for divorce due to "Spousal Stupidity."

Ha... I was threatened with divorce today too when she saw the initial price.


Sent from my Pixel 4 using Tapatalk

[Spacemanspif]

Originally Posted by adam711

One sold on 5/23 for 10,499.95

oh my bad I was using FOTL in the search.

Still, one at $10.5k (probably a panic buy when the price jumped) and one at $8k from May 13. I don't see these flying off the shelves at this price point, or even the $8k price. My point still stands about the ceiling / flip potential. Panini is eating all the real meat and making everyone else scrape the remnants off the bone

[ninjacookies]

Originally Posted by Spacemanspif

oh my bad I was using FOTL in the search.

Still, one at $10.5k (probably a panic buy when the price jumped) and one at $8k from May 13. I don't see these flying off the shelves at this price point, or even the $8k price. My point still stands about the ceiling / flip potential. Panini is eating all the real meat and making everyone else scrape the remnants off the bone

I firmly believe this year is a textbook exercise in the greater fool theory.

Outrageous baseline prices are met on everything from sealed wax to slabbed junk wax bass kards, the market agrees...and the needle inches upwards. Rinse; repeat.

And I absolutely believe the first few Zion true RPA's will get 60-75k on the secondary market. We will see 6 figure parallels. The true 1/1 vertical is a 2xx to half million dollar card.

Again, I'm not justifying any of this, but that's where we're at as a market.


I do think these boxes will settle in the 11-12k range 3-4 months from now. However, a lot of that is contingent on the fatboi Logoman being on the loose. I suspect there are going to be multiple bounties out for it like a cheesy 60's western.

Of course a lot of things can happen between now and then that can exacerbate prices, including tremendous postseason play by Z or Ja in the coming weeks.



A big factor many don't seem to be considering is how underwhelming next years' draft class looks on paper. Absolutely zero media hype and comprised of mostly centers and midgetboi guards. That should bode well for both 19-20 and 18-19 sealed wax, as sneakerbois' search for the next hobby messiah is exhausted.

[Bruin7]

Originally Posted by ninjacookies

I firmly believe this year is a textbook exercise in the greater fool theory.

Outrageous baseline prices are met on everything from sealed wax to slabbed junk wax bass kards, the market agrees...and the needle inches upwards. Rinse; repeat.

And I absolutely believe the first few Zion true RPA's will get 60-75k on the secondary market. We will see 6 figure parallels. The true 1/1 vertical is a 2xx to half million dollar card.

Again, I'm not justifying any of this, but that's where we're at as a market.


I do think these boxes will settle in the 11-12k range 3-4 months from now. However, a lot of that is contingent on the fatboi Logoman being on the loose. I suspect there are going to be multiple bounties out for it like a cheesy 60's western.

Of course a lot of things can happen between now and then that can exacerbate prices, including tremendous postseason play by Z or Ja in the coming weeks.



A big factor many don't seem to be considering is how underwhelming next years' draft class looks on paper. Absolutely zero media hype and comprised of mostly centers and midgetboi guards. That should bode well for both 19-20 and 18-19 sealed wax, as sneakerbois' search for the next hobby messiah is exhausted.

Agree with all points made. I will admittingly be circling waiting for the fools to sell their good stuff in order to keep gambling/ripping. They're chasing their LeBron dreams through his all mighty fatness. I honestly can't wait to see what shape he's in; Fat Boi NBA2K loves video games & snacks.

Sidenote: Everyone that bought in below 9K will eventually be making money if they hold correctly.

[ninjacookies]

Originally Posted by Bruin7

Agree with all points made. I will admittingly be circling waiting for the fools to sell their good stuff in order to keep gambling/ripping. They're chasing their LeBron dreams through his all mighty fatness. I honestly can't wait to see what shape he's in; Fat Boi NBA2K loves video games & snacks.

Sidenote: Everyone that bought in below 9K will eventually be making money if they hold correctly.

huehue. It's going to be real interesting to see how many personal breaks surface on youtube. We'll certainly get to see who's in a different tax bracket. Going out on a limb and saying most will be Asia breaks...lot of high rollers there that don't give a flyin' dragon about ROI breakdowns.

I agree though....anyone that got in at the floor will make some g's in the short/medium term. Long term? Well, that's anyone's guess for any of the last 3 draft classes. What's amazing today isn't necessarily amazing tomorrow.

[TimBuckTwo]

Originally Posted by ninjacookies

I do think these boxes will settle in the 11-12k range 3-4 months from now. However, a lot of that is contingent on the fatboi Logoman being on the loose. I suspect there are going to be multiple bounties out for it like a cheesy 60's western.

Who you calling fatboooiiiiii?

[ninjacookies]

Originally Posted by TimBuckTwo

Who you calling fatboooiiiiii?

Thicc boneded muscleboi.

#yourbodyisbeautiful

[GeechQuest]

Originally Posted by Bruin7

will eventually be making money if they hold correctly.

Any tips on the proper way to hold? Overhand? Underhand? Strapped around my waist in a #5KFanny?

[ninjacookies]

Originally Posted by GeechQuest

Strapped around my waist in a #5KFanny?

The best option is the only option.



fireemoji fireemoji fireemoji

#nocap

[Bruin7]

Originally Posted by ninjacookies

huehue. It's going to be real interesting to see how many personal breaks surface on youtube. We'll certainly get to see who's in a different tax bracket. Going out on a limb and saying most will be Asia breaks...lot of high rollers there that don't give a flyin' dragon about ROI breakdowns.

I agree though....anyone that got in at the floor will make some g's in the short/medium term. Long term? Well, that's anyone's guess for any of the last 3 draft classes. What's amazing today isn't necessarily amazing tomorrow.

I assume we won't be seeing too many personal breaks showcasing Nicolo Melli or Ty Jerome Stars & Stripes RPAs. Imagine the fools that used a credit card to purchase today and the itch becomes too great after they see the first Zion listed.

2018-19 is the superior draft class top to bottom. There is soooo much room for the second and third tier rookies in that class. I guarantee you no one will be talking about Ja Morant in 5 years...at least not the way they are this year. Fat Boi I'm not sure yet - again it comes down to his priorities.

Each morning I peruse my SMR issue during my dumps. It's hilarious to see cards like Gold Refractors that were once $5k-$10k and now $250. One guy if that makes it each year and most years are flops.

[Bruin7]

Originally Posted by GeechQuest

Any tips on the proper way to hold? Overhand? Underhand? Strapped around my waist in a #5KFanny?

Sorry incorrect usage of words; been smoking all day. If you paid with cash its different than if you paid via credit card. How long until you make a final decision on what to do? You can't hold the box forever if its on a CC due to interest. Someone will open and it will either be a tragic comedy or a glorious moment in your life.

[ninjacookies]

Originally Posted by Bruin7

I assume we won't be seeing too many personal breaks showcasing Nicolo Melli or Ty Jerome Stars & Stripes RPAs. Imagine the fools that used a credit card to purchase today and the itch becomes too great after they see the first Zion listed.

2018-19 is the superior draft class top to bottom. There is soooo much room for the second and third tier rookies in that class. I guarantee you no one will be talking about Ja Morant in 5 years...at least not the way they are this year. Fat Boi I'm not sure yet - again it comes down to his priorities.

Each morning I peruse my SMR issue during my dumps. It's hilarious to see cards like Gold Refractors that were once $5k-$10k and now $250. One guy if that makes it each year and most years are flops.

I tend to agree that 18-19 has the greater chance of being the better overall class. However, 19-20 still has quite a few wildcards that haven't gotten the opportunity to fully showcase their ability. We are talking a 2 year sample size to 3/4. I'm still high on Rui...not so much PJ Washington (I think his game is fundamentally sound but more akin to Marvin Williams)...Keldon, NAW, Okeke, and Porter are at the very least intriguing. Cam has made me do a complete 180...he may end up being the second best player in the draft. Ideal size and 2 way ability...showed some big signs of upside towards the end of the year.

Odds are 98-99% of the players of each draft will pan out to be career journeymen or rotational players at best. So it's important not be become emotionally attached to non transcendent players and marry your cardboard. Scalp and move on.

But yeah...those Amexbois that can't kick the itch are going to be HURTING. May God have mercy on their soon to be tormented souls.

[Bruin7]

Originally Posted by ninjacookies

Thicc boneded muscleboi.

#yourbodyisbeautiful

I knew the Golden State Warriors strength coach pre-Curry era (Baron Davis-Josh Richardson days). How is it that the New Orleans Pelicans staff cannot keep him in shape but the Duke staff could.

[ninjacookies]

Originally Posted by Bruin7

I knew the Golden State Warriors strength coach pre-Curry era (Baron Davis-Josh Richardson days). How is it that the New Orleans Pelicans staff cannot keep him in shape but the Duke staff could.

Bruh. He was immobilized on crutches for like 3 months. He'll be fine (I think). Was really hitting his conditioning stride the last 5 or so games.

I hope he shows up to the postseason at least semi-in shape. It'll say a lot about his willpower and discipline during this covid layoff. He was at least saying all the right things during his skype with EJ.

[KhalDrogo]

I agree with everything you said Ninja. Actually think your /99 RPA estimates may be a bit low. I could see $100k out the gate. I just don’t see as much of this being ripped as in past years where entry was more affordable for more people.

[ExpFacilitators]

Do we have any confirmation the messiah is live in this product?

[ExpFacilitators]

I'm quite new to this high stakes flipping environment. Help me understand what a $10,800 BIN/BO listing implies.

You bottom tick the auction at $7500 plus tax, and you list for $10,800....

so if your BIN is hit you make about $2k per box after fees? And if you have to pay any kind of taxes on your profit its even lower...

And then from the demand side...how are there simultaneously buyers at $20k and not people hitting the $10k BIN?

Fascinating study in irrational economics.

[ninjacookies]

Originally Posted by KhalDrogo

I agree with everything you said Ninja. Actually think your /99 RPA estimates may be a bit low. I could see $100k out the gate. I just don’t see as much of this being ripped as in past years where entry was more affordable for more people.

Absolutely, I think you're spot on with the 100k initial valuation. Traditional rules will be thrown out the window with these rpa's and shattered.

What you said about not as much being ripped will be the more concerning thing for holders going forward. You're now banking on the notion that group breakers will continue their ridiculous profit margins which will ensure future sealed purchases.

I can't really see too many regulars buying these for a premium down the road hoping to re-flip. The barrier to entry eliminates 97% of the buying pool. Then again, I've been wrong before...a lot.