2019-20 NT FOTL

[pharmboymatt]

Originally Posted by ksp6687

I get that most of you who comment on something you know very little about feel the need to voice your incorrect or just downright idiotic opinions, but in the case of Hobby boxes still being up on their app, less than a week after release that’s not some unprecedented milestone that shows they really overpriced the product or dropped the ball here.

There were many instances last year where hobby boxes sat up on their site for weeks or months AT MSRP before selling out. They’re clearly trying to not leave any money on the table at this point and whether you agree with this sentiment or not, them not selling out a 4K+ product at 8x what it was selling for at release last year is not your grand hater/troll moment to say they’ve finally gone too far and look at the results.

Aw, is your 'investment' not looking great right now?

[ksp6687]

Originally Posted by pharmboymatt

Aw, is your 'investment' not looking great right now?

Hahah, no. I actually had an opportunity to pick up boxes at 3k each on pre-order months ago but didn't want to have 12k needlessly tied up for months on end.

So I actually have ZERO dollars tied up into this product.

Not everybody only trashes a product when they have FOMO or pumps it when they are sitting on a stash. Only 99% or so of BO members? And from reading your posts in the past, you're one of the 99%. Thanks for your concern though

[ksp6687]

Originally Posted by bigjbasketball

You can’t compare this year to last year...completely different landscape right now. You can compare this year to this year though, and I don’t recall anything sitting on Panini’s website for this long without selling out. All of those other sellouts were also sold way above their own SRP. So yes it is something worth pointing out, and they did overprice this product. I’m sure that over time sealed wax will continue to increase, including these NT boxes, but with the insane amount of demand for basketball cards right now, it is interesting that these have sat for this long.

That is a very fair point, but those products also had way lower price points. Any Tom, Dick or Harry could buy a few boxes of whatever Panini puts on their site at a few hundred dollars a box, but at a 4k/box price point it really cuts the pool of potential buyers, so I don't think all things are equal here

[ksp6687]

Originally Posted by mc1

Tell us more please. Youre always right.

Not always, I didn't buy Prizm FOTL this year as I thought it being "premium" and the format it was in made it far less desirable than Hobby.

So I was wrong, once.

[KidKards101]

I'm not certain if every year wax prices will continue to sell for more than last year. It all depends how much hype and great the next rookie class will be. If majority think the next crop of rookies are not up to par to this year's and last year's, I think wax prices would sell for less.

[bigjbasketball]

Originally Posted by ksp6687

That is a very fair point, but those products also had way lower price points. Any Tom, Dick or Harry could buy a few boxes of whatever Panini puts on their site at a few hundred dollars a box, but at a 4k/box price point it really cuts the pool of potential buyers, so I don't think all things are equal here

Agreed, it’s not an apples to apples comparison, but I do think that if Panini didn’t price so aggressively, they could have easily sold out every box in seconds like everything else they put on their website this season. Not sure what the magic number is, but I think if they were under $4K all in (including taxes), they would have all sold by now. And they still would have made a very significant profit on a product with a $500 SRP.

Originally Posted by KidKards101

I'm not certain if every year wax prices will continue to sell for more than last year. It all depends how much hype and great the next rookie class will be. If majority think the next crop of rookies are not up to par to this year's and last year's, I think wax prices would sell for less.

20/21 wax should be less than 19/20 wax out of the gate, but there are a lot of vets now that will continue to drive prices up, not just the rookie class. Low #’d parallels, rare inserts, and autos/patches of guys like LeBron, Luka, Giannis, and Curry (and maybe even KD) will be enough to keep sealed wax prices high despite how bad the rookie class might be. And some of the inserts don’t even need to be rare - look at Hoops High Voltage and Donruss Net Marvels singles and then look at how much those boxes cost right now. Plus you will have second year cards of Zion and Ja next year, which will probably sell very well.

[blevins26]

Originally Posted by bigjbasketball

20/21 wax should be less than 19/20 wax out of the gate, but there are a lot of vets now that will continue to drive prices up, not just the rookie class. Low #’d parallels, rare inserts, and autos/patches of guys like LeBron, Luka, Giannis, and Curry (and maybe even KD) will be enough to keep sealed wax prices high despite how bad the rookie class might be. And some of the inserts don’t even need to be rare - look at Hoops High Voltage and Donruss Net Marvels singles and then look at how much those boxes cost right now. Plus you will have second year cards of Zion and Ja next year, which will probably sell very well.

This thought was part of what makes me think that NT has room to rise in value. It seems like often the case with releases this year is that for a week or 2 they stagnate in price and as product gets broken and boxes get scarcer and scarcer, the price rises.

Add to that the fact that 20/21 is going to be less exciting than 19/20.

[Asian62150]

The product that has Zion's BEST RC is still sitting on the shelves after 3+ days.

Not a good look for Panini.

[hermanotarjeta]

You guys understand that they can always lower the prices, and it will sell out well before it gets down to $500 a box on their website.

Would you be so proud if Panini dropped the prices to $3500 a box and it sold out in two minutes?

[ninjacookies]

This is going to hinge solely on Zion and Ja's sophomore progression/regression.


The biggest hurdle these hobby boxes face compared to previous years, is that a great majority of the premium was already baked in at release. We've never seen that kind of initial hike with NT.


It worked with Prizm, Optic, and the other hobby releases despte the early pessimism...but will it translate when you scale up to high end? We'll see.

[Spacemanspif]

The biggest difference in these later releases is, there's ONLY focus on the last / highest sale, not the bigger picture.

Prizm was widely available for preorder and shortly after release for slightly above SRP. I remember people adamantly refusing to buy even when it was $600/case. It took several months, with virtually NO competition from other products, to reach the 5x SRP mark. AND the volume moving at current price point is very low. Seriously, if you have a closet full of the stuff and want to liquidate all of it, you're going to have to take a 20% cut because even listed at 10% under BO or D&A pricing on ebay, it took me a couple weeks to sell 4 blasters. Again, this is for the most desired, mainstream product.

NT came out the gate @800% of SRP. This was too much, and everyone knows it. I participated in one "random serial number" break this weekend, and even for the MINIMUM commitment to this product, I essentially lit $175 on fire. I knew it was a bad idea at the time, but figured, what the hell, I want to at least be a part of this for a second. Well, guess what. 40 cards out of 100 participants means 60 people are getting absolutely skunked. 30 more are getting some form of base card or patch that's worth $10, which is still a 90%+ loss. There's not going to be much tolerance for this at current levels, and I feel like this is the first time the market is pushing back on the supply side, as breaks are definitely not filling as quickly as they should for the #1 high end product.

Quick check of their websites show Plat did ~ 30 cases, Layton did 21. Jaspy's is still working on #8, Mojo did 11. There's FOUR THOUSAND CASES of this stuff. NT is your summer blockbuster, and for an opening weekend, this was pitiful. Sure, there are degenerates out there, but to open even half of the print run, it's going to take around $32 Million dollars. To me, that's just not feasible. This market isn't as big as people here like to think. To run up some Net Marvels or Bass PSA 10s only takes a few thousand dollars to completely manipulate a market and start some false momentum. This here is going to take millions in guaranteed losses, and is just not sustainable. I really think that if we don't see enough broken in the first month we might see them start dropping the price. Remember with the production stoppage we're seeing new products every couple weeks now. Noir, Court Kings, NT, and soon Spectra, Obsidian, Chronicles, Opulence. We went from product-starved to overload, there's not enough cash to support everything being dumped at 500%+ SRP at once.

The good thing about random team and serial breaks is I'll be picking off my Warriors cards and probably be able to get everything I want for the price of entrance to 2-3 team breaks, going to be tons of people ending up with cards they don't want because of the way they had to join breaks.

[sjay2k]

Is there a tracker for the FOTL RPAs? Plenty of monsters still from NT to surface, I'm curious how much of the product has been broken already.

[jellyboy]

workflow from Panini:

1. pulled up price in BO, SC, DA before product launched....NOT SOLD
2. released FOTL, buyers referred BO, SC, DA price point......SOLD
3. released hobby boxes, set price a little down with BO, SC, DA price......SOLD

So who is winner? So we should wake up now

[ksp6687]

So I just saw 3 RPAs in a FOTL box ripped by Platinum. Last 3 cards of the box were a colossal RPA of DeAndre Hunter /25 (not necessarily considered a true RPA, but Zion is prob a 5 figure card in this set), Kabengele vertical RPA/99 and a Herro Stars & stripes /30.

Def do think FOTL is the way to go over hobby is people were still on the fence btwn the two

[jkl165116]

Originally Posted by ksp6687

So I just saw 3 RPAs in a FOTL box ripped by Platinum. Last 3 cards of the box were a colossal RPA of DeAndre Hunter /25 (not necessarily considered a true RPA, but Zion is prob a 5 figure card in this set), Kabengele vertical RPA/99 and a Herro Stars & stripes /30.

Def do think FOTL is the way to go over hobby is people were still on the fence btwn the two

I came to this thread to post exactly this. Lmao 3 technically rpas in a box

[jkl165116]

I watched a 5 caser with 3 chuma okeke vert rpas and a bunch of horizontal rpas. Deaaron fox logoman auto(not rpa) was the saving bell from the five case.

[dcarado]

Originally Posted by jkl165116

I came to this thread to post exactly this. Lmao 3 technically rpas in a box

Technically 2 and an insert, but point taken. FOTL is 1000% the best way to rip this based on the price difference compared to a hobby case. There's just too many horizontal in hobby this year. That being said, I don't know how anybody is ripping these. If Zion becomes what people think, no telling what price these could reach sealed.

[jkl165116]

Originally Posted by dcarado

Technically 2 and an insert, but point taken. FOTL is 1000% the best way to rip this based on the price difference compared to a hobby case. There's just too many horizontal in hobby this year. That being said, I don't know how anybody is ripping these. If Zion becomes what people think, no telling what price these could reach sealed.

Agreed but like ksp mentioned zion or ja in that insert set could make the fotl box pay for itself. So tempted to try mine.... best to get sleep instead..

As a recovering gamblng addict everydays a struggle when theres sealed wax around lmao

[Spacemanspif]

Originally Posted by jkl165116

Agreed but like ksp mentioned zion or ja in that insert set could make the fotl box pay for itself. So tempted to try mine.... best to get sleep instead..

As a recovering gamblng addict everydays a struggle when theres sealed wax around lmao

I'm still patting myself on the back for not getting any. The inevitable "fuqit let's see what's in here" and pulling a Jaylen Nowell would be hard to stomach...

[dcarado]

Originally Posted by jkl165116

Agreed but like ksp mentioned zion or ja in that insert set could make the fotl box pay for itself. So tempted to try mine.... best to get sleep instead..

As a recovering gamblng addict everydays a struggle when theres sealed wax around lmao

Just think, as long as it's sealed, you still have the Zion or Ja you think might be in there. Be strong!

[bmf]

Originally Posted by jkl165116

Agreed but like ksp mentioned zion or ja in that insert set could make the fotl box pay for itself. So tempted to try mine.... best to get sleep instead..

As a recovering gamblng addict everydays a struggle when theres sealed wax around lmao

lol i have a lot of trouble not busting boxes when i have them. especially the good stuff.

[bmf]

Originally Posted by ksp6687

So I just saw 3 RPAs in a FOTL box ripped by Platinum. Last 3 cards of the box were a colossal RPA of DeAndre Hunter /25 (not necessarily considered a true RPA, but Zion is prob a 5 figure card in this set), Kabengele vertical RPA/99 and a Herro Stars & stripes /30.

Def do think FOTL is the way to go over hobby is people were still on the fence btwn the two

except that you can get about three boxes of hobby for every box of fotl. if you got in fotl for 7500 plus tax, great. if not, you're paying up. the hobby boxes can be had for 4k-ish at the moment.

[bmf]

Originally Posted by hermanotarjeta

You guys understand that they can always lower the prices, and it will sell out well before it gets down to $500 a box on their website.

Would you be so proud if Panini dropped the prices to $3500 a box and it sold out in two minutes?

if that happened, i'm sure i'd miss out on it just like i missed fotl. i'm just too busy to keep up with all of this. without blowout, i think i'd be in the dark most of the time.

[Bruin7]

Originally Posted by ninjacookies

This is going to hinge solely on Zion and Ja's sophomore progression/regression.


The biggest hurdle these hobby boxes face compared to previous years, is that a great majority of the premium was already baked in at release. We've never seen that kind of initial hike with NT.


It worked with Prizm, Optic, and the other hobby releases despte the early pessimism...but will it translate when you scale up to high end? We'll see.

Agreed look at Prizm FOTL. The speculation and stupidity in that specific thread was comical. You're an absolute fool's fool's fool if you couldn't see those being little boxes of gold at the bottom price. These NT FOTL boxes will become iconic commodities...should have bought as many as I could at 7,500. I'm ready for Flawless FOTL

[KhalDrogo]

Originally Posted by Bruin7

Agreed look at Prizm FOTL. The speculation and stupidity in that specific thread was comical. You're an absolute fool's fool's fool if you couldn't see those being little boxes of gold at the bottom price. These NT FOTL boxes will become iconic commodities...should have bought as many as I could at 7,500. I'm ready for Flawless FOTL

Prizm was my biggest mistake of the year. Focused too much on the bad floor versus hobby. Wish I could go back.