Spectra FOTL 6/24

[ninjacookies]

Got shipping notification.


Essketit.

[yiguiri2002]

Originally Posted by ninjacookies

A 25 hour window? Your doomsday scenario couldn't be more generous, comrade.

Well, if that's the case, then the entire bull basketbol market would have ended by Friday. Place your bets.


The exclusive last year was 1 flash or wave bass prizm /9. inb4 one of hundreds of scrub vets sure to get the females jumpin.'


Again; strong emphasis on nothing.



Moz and Mein Fett Kempf are buried along with the memories associated with them. Gotta stick it out with Murray until further notice...appreciate your consideration.

2 days now is like a whole month in 2018 FWIW.

I don't think the current market will be affected by much (for now). But I don't know how sustainable is to continue introducing overpriced releases all the time without expecting some of them to crash or be flat. Even compared to a regular Spectra box from last year, this shouldn't be more than 400 bucks more since the average RPA should be around 200.

I'll have to pour one out for Moz and Fat Kemp. May their memories always live with us.

[Chris P]

I think the addition of the color blast insert is definitely a plus for Spectra considering how everyone loved the college counterparts

[Spacemanspif]

Originally Posted by Siberian13

$10k seems high. $4-5k like impeccable seems reasonable yet still stupid high

Impeccable are like $2k for the /75, highest others were $4k for /25 and $5k for /10, but both ended up relisted. Impeccable is a better looking set IMO

Noir /49 go for around $3k. I picked up one for $2850 direct, and still think it's expensive

Originally Posted by ksp6687

Yea, I'm mostly teasing only bc of that. Any hypothetical wager would have to be based on the card actually being paid for.

But whatever these people are on that makes them think his spectra jersey auto /39 is going to sell for 10k+, I'd like some

they're definitely insane. comparing spectra to NT. lulz.

[mossoholic]

Originally Posted by GeechQuest

Mosaic had the retail component though.

For the record, I think Mosaic is a trash product too but you're correct it has had solid value. Spectra will likely be similar to Mosaic in that the newest sector of the hobby will love it and just pass it between each other until the values start to collapse as they are all just trading money between themselves.

2019-20 has outsold 2018-19 on everything. Last 3 2018-19 Spectra FOTL sales with a base card /9 sold $650, $650, and $700. Blowout is now paying $600 for 2018-19 Spectra FOTL boxes. If the bonus was the same 2019-20 boxes are worth around $900-$1000. The RPA /39 or /3 is worth far more than a base card /9 so these should be valued way above $1000.

[SportDawgCards]

There’s Tons of bgs 9.5 zion non autos on eBay selling for 5k. An on card auto /39 is forsure selling more than non autos man. You’ll see.

[phil]

Originally Posted by ninjacookies

Got shipping notification.

same here

[Ra3]

Originally Posted by GeechQuest

Mosaic had the retail component though.

For the record, I think Mosaic is a trash product too but you're correct it has had solid value. Spectra will likely be similar to Mosaic in that the newest sector of the hobby will love it and just pass it between each other until the values start to collapse as they are all just trading money between themselves.

When you mention the retail component, is that a good thing or a bad thing? I’m genuinely asking; I would like to understand how that plays into prices and perceptions?

[GeechQuest]

Originally Posted by mossoholic

2019-20 has outsold 2018-19 on everything. Last 3 2018-19 Spectra FOTL sales with a base card /9 sold $650, $650, and $700. Blowout is now paying $600 for 2018-19 Spectra FOTL boxes. If the bonus was the same 2019-20 boxes are worth around $900-$1000. The RPA /39 or /3 is worth far more than a base card /9 so these should be valued way above $1000.

I'd bet that, on average, that Base Card /9 would have been more valuable to the product than the RPA /39.

[GeechQuest]

Originally Posted by Ra3

When you mention the retail component, is that a good thing or a bad thing? I’m genuinely asking; I would like to understand how that plays into prices and perceptions?

Good thing because it gets more involved and at cheaper prices.

Hobby only releases generally don't have the collecting base.

[mossoholic]

Originally Posted by GeechQuest

I'd bet that, on average, that Base Card /9 would have been more valuable to the product than the RPA /39.

I guess that puts you in the .1% that think that.

[Tnooky]

Originally Posted by GeechQuest

I'd bet that, on average, that Base Card /9 would have been more valuable to the product than the RPA /39.

Thats ridiculous.

[mossoholic]

Originally Posted by GeechQuest

I'd bet that, on average, that Base Card /9 would have been more valuable to the product than the RPA /39.

I know this is not National Treasures. But if there was a /9 base of Zion you're telling me that card and that card for every single rookie would outsell their RPA /30? I don't think it would sell for even 20%. Not to mention you know all the garbage vet cards there are on that /9? The /39 in Spectra you're guaranteed a rookie and I'm guessing the set is 35-45 rookies.

[Chris P]

Dont think i got an email but checked my order history and my 3 boxes show shipped

[GeechQuest]

Originally Posted by mossoholic

I guess that puts you in the .1% that think that.

Originally Posted by Tnooky

Thats ridiculous.

Well, if they did the base card /9 instead you’d get all the rookies PLUS:

-Lebron
-Luka
-Giannis
-Curry
-Durant

To pull. Anybody want to check and see what their FOTL parallels sell for compared to just the rookies? They have outsold all the rookies not named Ja and Zion and bring the AVERAGE value up.

[rippev]

Expected to arrive on Friday. They was quick. What was the print run of these boxes? 1920?

[messier2]

3 boxes shipped!

[mossoholic]

Originally Posted by GeechQuest

Well, if they did the base card /9 instead you’d get all the rookies PLUS:

-Lebron
-Luka
-Giannis
-Curry
-Durant

To pull. Anybody want to check and see what their FOTL parallels sell for compared to just the rookies? They have outsold all the rookies not named Ja and Zion and bring the AVERAGE value up.

What about the other 200 vet cards? I'd rather have a 2 in 35-45 chance at Zion or Ja and a huge payday than hitting a needle in a haystack on your couple vets /9. I'm guessing Lebron and maybe Giannis are the only 2 of those 5 that sell very high anyway.

[daviswr7]

fast shipping nowadays with panini. love it.

[mossoholic]

Originally Posted by GeechQuest

Well, if they did the base card /9 instead you’d get all the rookies PLUS:

-Lebron
-Luka
-Giannis
-Curry
-Durant

To pull. Anybody want to check and see what their FOTL parallels sell for compared to just the rookies? They have outsold all the rookies not named Ja and Zion and bring the AVERAGE value up.

BTW where were you on posting in this thread BEFORE release with all this stuff? We needed you! If you could have got a decent amount of people here to believe you these boxes may have sold out today at $700 or at least made it one more drop. I would have been singing your praises if that would have happened.

[Asian62150]

Originally Posted by GeechQuest

Well, if they did the base card /9 instead you’d get all the rookies PLUS:

-Lebron
-Luka
-Giannis
-Curry
-Durant

To pull. Anybody want to check and see what their FOTL parallels sell for compared to just the rookies? They have outsold all the rookies not named Ja and Zion and bring the AVERAGE value up.

This makes sense and the math is the math.

But how many people have thrown math out the window, especially in basketball? Zion has caused so many people to pay insane prices for product.

My LCS has Prizm Hobby for $100 per PACK.

When ppl see "guaranteed RPA /39 or /3" that's going to be a huge draw even if it doesn't make as much mathematical sense as base /9.

[GeechQuest]

Originally Posted by mossoholic

What about the other 200 vet cards? I'd rather have a 2 in 35-45 chance at Zion or Ja and a huge payday than hitting a needle in a haystack on your couple vets /9. I'm guessing Lebron and maybe Giannis are the only 2 of those 5 that sell very high anyway.

The checklist is 42 for Rookies.

The base set checklist is 175.

Pretty much every base FOTL parallel /9 would have outsold all of the below sans the highlighted:

176 KZ Okpala - Miami Heat #/ 149
177 Tyler Herro - Miami Heat #/ 149
178 Kyle Guy - Sacramento Kings #/ 149
179 Sekou Doumbouya - Detroit Pistons #/ 149
180 Goga Bitadze - Indiana Pacers #/ 149
181 Zion Williamson - New Orleans Pelicans #/ 60 *
182 Grant Williams - Boston Celtics #/ 149
183 De'Andre Hunter - Atlanta Hawks #/ 99
184 Dylan Windler - Cleveland Cavaliers #/ 149
185 Jaxson Hayes - New Orleans Pelicans #/ 149
186 Eric Paschall - Golden State Warriors #/ 149
187 Romeo Langford - Boston Celtics #/ 149
188 Jaylen Nowell - Minnesota Timberwolves #/ 149
189 Nickeil Alexander-Walker - New Orleans Pelicans #/ 149
190 Luka Samanic - San Antonio Spurs #/ 149
191 Ja Morant - Memphis Grizzlies #/ 99
192 Ty Jerome - Phoenix Suns #/ 149
193 Jarrett Culver - Minnesota Timberwolves #/ 99
194 Mfiondu Kabengele - Los Angeles Clippers #/ 149
195 Cameron Johnson - Phoenix Suns #/ 149
196 Cody Martin - Charlotte Hornets #/ 149
197 Matisse Thybulle - Philadelphia 76ers #/ 149
198 Quinndary Weatherspoon - San Antonio Spurs #/ 149
199 Brandon Clarke - Memphis Grizzlies #/ 149
200 Keldon Johnson - San Antonio Spurs #/ 149
201 RJ Barrett - New York Knicks #/ 99
202 Bruno Fernando - Atlanta Hawks #/ 149
203 Cam Reddish - Atlanta Hawks #/ 99
204 Jordan Poole - Golden State Warriors #/ 149
205 PJ Washington Jr. - Charlotte Hornets #/ 149
206 Isaiah Roby - Dallas Mavericks #/ 149
207 Nassir Little - Portland Trail Blazers #/ 149
208 Tremont Waters - Boston Celtics #/ 149
209 Darius Bazley - Oklahoma City Thunder #/ 149
210 Carsen Edwards - Boston Celtics #/ 149
211 Rui Hachimura - Washington Wizards #/ 99
212 Admiral Schofield - Washington Wizards #/ 149
213 Coby White - Chicago Bulls #/ 99
214 Kevin Porter Jr. - Cleveland Cavaliers #/ 149
215 Bol Bol - Denver Nuggets #/ 149
216 Ignas Brazdeikis - New York Knicks #/ 149
217 Chuma Okeke - Orlando Magic #/ 149

That's just basing it off other FOTL parallels.

Anthony Davis FOTL parallel /9 has historically been a $30 card. He'd outsell 70% of that list and Anthony Davis FOTL parallel would fall middle of the pack for Vets.

FWIW, check the RC FOTL sales from the past years and compare them with their Spectra RPA counterparts. You'd probably be surprised...

[mossoholic]

Originally Posted by GeechQuest

The checklist is 42 for Rookies.

The base set checklist is 175.

Pretty much every base FOTL parallel /9 would have outsold all of the below sans the highlighted:

176 KZ Okpala - Miami Heat #/ 149
177 Tyler Herro - Miami Heat #/ 149
178 Kyle Guy - Sacramento Kings #/ 149
179 Sekou Doumbouya - Detroit Pistons #/ 149
180 Goga Bitadze - Indiana Pacers #/ 149
181 Zion Williamson - New Orleans Pelicans #/ 60 *
182 Grant Williams - Boston Celtics #/ 149
183 De'Andre Hunter - Atlanta Hawks #/ 99
184 Dylan Windler - Cleveland Cavaliers #/ 149
185 Jaxson Hayes - New Orleans Pelicans #/ 149
186 Eric Paschall - Golden State Warriors #/ 149
187 Romeo Langford - Boston Celtics #/ 149
188 Jaylen Nowell - Minnesota Timberwolves #/ 149
189 Nickeil Alexander-Walker - New Orleans Pelicans #/ 149
190 Luka Samanic - San Antonio Spurs #/ 149
191 Ja Morant - Memphis Grizzlies #/ 99
192 Ty Jerome - Phoenix Suns #/ 149
193 Jarrett Culver - Minnesota Timberwolves #/ 99
194 Mfiondu Kabengele - Los Angeles Clippers #/ 149
195 Cameron Johnson - Phoenix Suns #/ 149
196 Cody Martin - Charlotte Hornets #/ 149
197 Matisse Thybulle - Philadelphia 76ers #/ 149
198 Quinndary Weatherspoon - San Antonio Spurs #/ 149
199 Brandon Clarke - Memphis Grizzlies #/ 149
200 Keldon Johnson - San Antonio Spurs #/ 149
201 RJ Barrett - New York Knicks #/ 99
202 Bruno Fernando - Atlanta Hawks #/ 149
203 Cam Reddish - Atlanta Hawks #/ 99
204 Jordan Poole - Golden State Warriors #/ 149
205 PJ Washington Jr. - Charlotte Hornets #/ 149
206 Isaiah Roby - Dallas Mavericks #/ 149
207 Nassir Little - Portland Trail Blazers #/ 149
208 Tremont Waters - Boston Celtics #/ 149
209 Darius Bazley - Oklahoma City Thunder #/ 149
210 Carsen Edwards - Boston Celtics #/ 149
211 Rui Hachimura - Washington Wizards #/ 99
212 Admiral Schofield - Washington Wizards #/ 149
213 Coby White - Chicago Bulls #/ 99
214 Kevin Porter Jr. - Cleveland Cavaliers #/ 149
215 Bol Bol - Denver Nuggets #/ 149
216 Ignas Brazdeikis - New York Knicks #/ 149
217 Chuma Okeke - Orlando Magic #/ 149

That's just basing it off other FOTL parallels.

Anthony Davis FOTL parallel /9 has historically been a $30 card. He'd outsell 70% of that list and Anthony Davis FOTL parallel would fall middle of the pack for Vets.

FWIW, check the RC FOTL sales from the past years and compare them with their Spectra RPA counterparts. You'd probably be surprised...

Every base would outsell these RPA's? I don't know what world you're living in. Not a single /9 rookie base would outsell their /39 RPA. With the exception of the couple you named the other 100+ vets would all sell for around the same price or lower than virtually every /39 RPA.

[adam711]

Originally Posted by mossoholic

2019-20 has outsold 2018-19 on everything. Last 3 2018-19 Spectra FOTL sales with a base card /9 sold $650, $650, and $700. Blowout is now paying $600 for 2018-19 Spectra FOTL boxes. If the bonus was the same 2019-20 boxes are worth around $900-$1000. The RPA /39 or /3 is worth far more than a base card /9 so these should be valued way above $1000.

Why are you posting about how well you can do off of FOTL? Won't that just help the sneaker investors learn more and profit off of the next release with this knowledge you're giving away?

[Spacemanspif]

Originally Posted by mossoholic

I know this is not National Treasures. But if there was a /9 base of Zion you're telling me that card and that card for every single rookie would outsell their RPA /30? I don't think it would sell for even 20%. Not to mention you know all the garbage vet cards there are on that /9? The /39 in Spectra you're guaranteed a rookie and I'm guessing the set is 35-45 rookies.

FYI the checklist is out and it's 42 "RPA"s. you saying 35-45 has been bugging me, sorry.

Anyway, here's my breakdown and price target for the FOTL bonus

42 players x 42 FOTL bonus = 1764 FOTL boxes

39 Zion /39 @$2000 = $78k
3 Zion /3 @$5000 = $15k
39 Ja /39 @1k = $39k
3 Ja /3 @$2.5k = $7.5k
1560 other /39 @$100 = $156k
200 other /3 @$200 = $24k
Total = $319.5k
Value per box = $181

Buying at $800-900 was a no-go for me because I only see these as having $200 extra in value compared to a regular box. Even if you consider the added incentive / gambling allure of hitting a Zion, call it $300 (even though the math isn't there to support it). That means implicitly you're also buying the base hobby box at $600. I know most here are looking to flip to someone stupider, but as we are in these price ranges there aren't as many fat wallet dummies as you'd like to think. There's a lot of people in this forum sitting on NT FOTL dreaming of them one day being $20k, but there's been what, 20 of them sold on ebay so far (and how many are legit?), versus 1600 or whatever of them out there? Relying on small sample sizes of "last sold" is a dangerous game, and assuming we're all just players in the Greater Fool theory at work, I'm steering clear of buying in at these levels.