Spectra FOTL 6/24

[GeechQuest]

Originally Posted by mossoholic

Every base would outsell these RPA's? I don't know what world you're living in. Not a single /9 rookie base would outsell their /39 RPA. With the exception of the couple you named the other 100+ vets would all sell for around the same price or lower than virtually every /39 RPA.

Well last year someone like JJJ had his FOTL parallel selling for what his /25 RPA was selling for and outselling all his other RPAs that weren't Gold /10.

Bagley had his /9 outselling everything not Gold or greater.

Shai was the same.

The line was pretty much /9 FOTL = /25 RPA.

The highest Luka Spectra sale that wasn't a Gold RPA was his FOTL /9 PSA 10.

Let's not even get into the fact that this year with Spectra your top tier RC autos are harder to hit (Zion RPA /99, Luka /299). The configuration may help/may hurt (4 packs w/ 16 cards vs. 1 pack with 8). To be determined.

[blinkme323]

Originally Posted by GeechQuest

Well last year someone like JJJ had his FOTL parallel selling for what his /25 RPA was selling for and outselling all his other RPAs that weren't Gold /10.

Bagley had his /9 outselling everything not Gold or greater.

Shai was the same.

The line was pretty much /9 FOTL = /25 RPA.

The highest Luka Spectra sale that wasn't a Gold RPA was his FOTL /9 PSA 10.

Let's not even get into the fact that this year with Spectra your top tier RC autos are harder to hit (Zion RPA /99, Luka /299). The configuration may help/may hurt (4 packs w/ 16 cards vs. 1 pack with 8). To be determined.

Sorry, so what is the argument here? That you would rather have a low numbered base parallel than a low numbered RPA? I'm genuinely asking, because I think I missed the context.

[GeechQuest]

Originally Posted by blinkme323

Sorry, so what is the argument here? That you would rather have a low numbered base parallel than a low numbered RPA? I'm genuinely asking, because I think I missed the context.

I think it would make the boxes more valuable because the average value of the base parallel would be higher than the average value of the RPA. At least, that's been the case.

I think the FOTL parallel being ONLY rookies hurts the value of this product, on average, than had Panini done what it had done the past 2 years with Spectra FOTL.

[blinkme323]

Originally Posted by GeechQuest

I think it would make the boxes more valuable because the average value of the base parallel would be higher than the average value of the RPA. At least, that's been the case.

I think the FOTL parallel being ONLY rookies hurts the value of this product, on average, than had Panini done what it had done the past 2 years with Spectra FOTL.

Ok fair enough. In some years with light rookie classes, I think you would be spot on. However, I think this year is just an insane outlier where the RPA is infinitely more valuable. Time will tell though....

[blinkme323]

Also, I'm not sure if it is a real sale or not, but it looks like a box just sold on ebay for $1499.

[messier2]

Originally Posted by blinkme323

Also, I'm not sure if it is a real sale or not, but it looks like a box just sold on ebay for $1499.

Steal!

[Spacemanspif]

Originally Posted by blinkme323

Also, I'm not sure if it is a real sale or not, but it looks like a box just sold on ebay for $1499.

no it was $1499 OBO with QTY, which doesn't show the lower price in search results.

There are others listed at $1250 and lower, people doing that quick flip!

[mossoholic]

Originally Posted by adam711

Why are you posting about how well you can do off of FOTL? Won't that just help the sneaker investors learn more and profit off of the next release with this knowledge you're giving away?

I'm sure the snearkbois are going to come back to read page 13 of a FOTL thread from a month or two earlier in July or August. This product is sold out now. Once a product is sold out say whatever you want about it.

[mossoholic]

Originally Posted by GeechQuest

Well last year someone like JJJ had his FOTL parallel selling for what his /25 RPA was selling for and outselling all his other RPAs that weren't Gold /10.

Bagley had his /9 outselling everything not Gold or greater.

Shai was the same.

The line was pretty much /9 FOTL = /25 RPA.

The highest Luka Spectra sale that wasn't a Gold RPA was his FOTL /9 PSA 10.

Let's not even get into the fact that this year with Spectra your top tier RC autos are harder to hit (Zion RPA /99, Luka /299). The configuration may help/may hurt (4 packs w/ 16 cards vs. 1 pack with 8). To be determined.

Comparing this years Spectra to last year is like comparing last year Mosaic to this years. Last year RPA's were not FOTL /39. They were horizontal not vertical. They had a smaller patch window. Many of them were jersey not patches. Last year looks like junk. This year is the best Spectra has ever looked.

[mossoholic]

Originally Posted by blinkme323

Ok fair enough. In some years with light rookie classes, I think you would be spot on. However, I think this year is just an insane outlier where the RPA is infinitely more valuable. Time will tell though....

I can't imagine that even 1% of buyers of these boxes value a /9 base card with a checklist of 175 as much or more than a RPA /39 with a checklist of 42.

[MattMiller]

Out of all the 2019-20 releases and there are lots... this is the best looking and I plan on ripping this

[adam711]

Originally Posted by mossoholic

I'm sure the snearkbois are going to come back to read page 13 of a FOTL thread from a month or two earlier in July or August. This product is sold out now. Once a product is sold out say whatever you want about it.

So you don't think people research a product they're unfamiliar with? You seem to want to whine about people posting threads on an upcoming product and then pump it up after it's sold out and explain why it was such a great buy. You can't have it both ways. It is quite hypocritical and a rather short sighted viewpoint anyway if all you're worried about is a quick flip.

[KOs Cardroom]

i just sold 6 for 1248.99 each. one buyer

[GeechQuest]

Originally Posted by mossoholic

Comparing this years Spectra to last year is like comparing last year Mosaic to this years. Last year RPA's were not FOTL /39. They were horizontal not vertical. They had a smaller patch window. Many of them were jersey not patches. Last year looks like junk. This year is the best Spectra has ever looked.

THE FOTL /39 is irelevant.

It's an RPA /39. Spectra has had RPAs /25 that didn't sell for the parallel. They've done vertical AND horizontal RPAs.

There aren't 39 buyers for an Isiah Roby, Tremont Waters, Ignas Brazdeikis, and the like RPA. Those are sub $20 cards, if that.

17/18 had vertical RPAs. Tatum's FOTL parallel sold for more than every RPA sans 2 Gold /10, 1 Neon Orange /5, and his logoman.

His /25 RPA (lower than this years FOTL RPA) sells for roughly half of his FOTL Wave /9.

Why do you think that is? I'd guess it's because Spectra is a throwaway product and there aren't 25 guys wanting to pay up, but there are 9.

Will there be 39 guys wanting to pay up this year? Possibly, but I doubt it. We've said this same thing every year with Spectra. We've done this dance before. I guess Zion could break the mold.

[Spacemanspif]

Originally Posted by mossoholic

Comparing this years Spectra to last year is like comparing last year Mosaic to this years. Last year RPA's were not FOTL /39. They were horizontal not vertical. They had a smaller patch window. Many of them were jersey not patches. Last year looks like junk. This year is the best Spectra has ever looked.

Compare it to Impeccable, or Noir then. Making up exorbitant numbers just because you think 2018 isn't a fair comparison isn't fair either. I agree that they look better than last year (although I actually liked the Silver /299s), but don't think they look better than Impeccable or Noir, of which I've already posted price comparisons. Also, I'm not a fan of waves and I don't think the /39s will look good.

"This should be higher" "X is better than Y" are arguments, sure, but there's also real dollars involved in all of this. Just because Prizm eventually rose to 6x SRP over time doesn't mean all these lines will get there, especially when they come out of the gates at 3-5x

[mossoholic]

Originally Posted by adam711

So you don't think people research a product they're unfamiliar with? You seem to want to whine about people posting threads on an upcoming product and then pump it up after it's sold out and explain why it was such a great buy. You can't have it both ways. It is quite hypocritical and a rather short sighted viewpoint anyway if all you're worried about is a quick flip.

You honestly think the sneakerbois and flippers care about wasting time doing a ton of research? They sell for a profit then are on to the next thing. It doesn't take much time to read a couple pages on a product that comes out that day. None of them are going to spend hours on end researching a product.

[mossoholic]

Originally Posted by GeechQuest

THE FOTL /39 is irelevant.

It's an RPA /39. Spectra has had RPAs /25 that didn't sell for the parallel. They've done vertical AND horizontal RPAs.

There aren't 39 buyers for an Isiah Roby, Tremont Waters, Ignas Brazdeikis, and the like RPA. Those are sub $20 cards, if that.

17/18 had vertical RPAs. Tatum's FOTL parallel sold for more than every RPA sans 2 Gold /10, 1 Neon Orange /5, and his logoman.

His /25 RPA (lower than this years FOTL RPA) sells for roughly half of his FOTL Wave /9.

Why do you think that is? I'd guess it's because Spectra is a throwaway product and there aren't 25 guys wanting to pay up, but there are 9.

Will there be 39 guys wanting to pay up this year? Possibly, but I doubt it. We've said this same thing every year with Spectra. We've done this dance before. I guess Zion could break the mold.

Where were you when I needed you early this morning? Please post how much you hate every FOTl product coming up in every thread right before release from now on. You may be the savior.

[jnmcards]

I mean, these are already selling for +400 more than what they sold out at, so a lot of these arguments are moot (and somewhat comical). The real question is what the ceiling is, which honestly I'm not sure of. I think it could be anywhere from 1500 to 2k+

[Tnooky]

Originally Posted by Spacemanspif

FYI the checklist is out and it's 42 "RPA"s. you saying 35-45 has been bugging me, sorry.

Anyway, here's my breakdown and price target for the FOTL bonus

42 players x 42 FOTL bonus = 1764 FOTL boxes

39 Zion /39 @$2000 = $78k
3 Zion /3 @$5000 = $15k
39 Ja /39 @1k = $39k
3 Ja /3 @$2.5k = $7.5k
1560 other /39 @$100 = $156k
200 other /3 @$200 = $24k
Total = $319.5k
Value per box = $181

Buying at $800-900 was a no-go for me because I only see these as having $200 extra in value compared to a regular box. Even if you consider the added incentive / gambling allure of hitting a Zion, call it $300 (even though the math isn't there to support it). That means implicitly you're also buying the base hobby box at $600. I know most here are looking to flip to someone stupider, but as we are in these price ranges there aren't as many fat wallet dummies as you'd like to think. There's a lot of people in this forum sitting on NT FOTL dreaming of them one day being $20k, but there's been what, 20 of them sold on ebay so far (and how many are legit?), versus 1600 or whatever of them out there? Relying on small sample sizes of "last sold" is a dangerous game, and assuming we're all just players in the Greater Fool theory at work, I'm steering clear of buying in at these levels.

You think the zion /3 rpas will be that cheap? I mean I think youre way off on all of the rpa prices for ja and zion but that one caught my attention the most.

[GeechQuest]

Originally Posted by mossoholic

Where were you when I needed you early this morning? Please post how much you hate every FOTl product coming up in every thread right before release from now on. You may be the savior.

I don't even hate Spectra. Do I hate the FOTL version for $800? Sure. I think it's overvalued that has little to no resale value long-term.

If Spectra was getting a bump you'd see the old years start to rise, but you're not seeing that. That's because it's still regarded as one of the worst Panini products.

[mc1]

Originally Posted by jnmcards

I mean, these are already selling for +400 more than what they sold out at, so a lot of these arguments are moot (and somewhat comical). The real question is what the ceiling is, which honestly I'm not sure of. I think it could be anywhere from 1500 to 2k+

This is insane. Spectra? 2k a box?

I know its FOTL...

[dcarado]

Originally Posted by GeechQuest

I don't even hate Spectra. Do I hate the FOTL version for $800? Sure. I think it's overvalued that has little to no resale value long-term.

If Spectra was getting a bump you'd see the old years start to rise, but you're not seeing that. That's because it's still regarded as one of the worst Panini products.

I still don't really get this. I know the market likes what it likes, I just don't really get why Spectra sells so poorly. I don't really like it all that much myself, but when you consider what it is, it's not all that different from some of the other flashy stuff that sells well. Is it because of the format? In the early years it was always seen as trying to be "high-end" cuz you only got 8 or 10 cards a box, and it just never had the secondary value to make it in the "high-end" category. Now that $700-$1k a box is no longer just the "high-end," maybe the perception changes a bit? I feel like if the exact same cards were printed on thin stock in formats more similar to Select, people would be all over it the same as they were for Mosaic.

[GeechQuest]

Originally Posted by jnmcards

I mean, these are already selling for +400 more than what they sold out at, so a lot of these arguments are moot (and somewhat comical). The real question is what the ceiling is, which honestly I'm not sure of. I think it could be anywhere from 1500 to 2k+

How many have sold? 11 out of the 25 available on ebay.

11 out of the 1638 produced.

8 out of the 11 sold to one buyer (c***a 8286)
2 more to (4***4 174)
1 to another buyer.

So there are 3 buyers today who have purchased 0.6% of the stock.

Ipso Facto, you're going to need more than 3 guys buying to drive the price.

[GeechQuest]

Originally Posted by dcarado

I still don't really get this. I know the market likes what it likes, I just don't really get why Spectra sells so poorly. I don't really like it all that much myself, but when you consider what it is, it's not all that different from some of the other flashy stuff that sells well. Is it because of the format? In the early years it was always seen as trying to be "high-end" cuz you only got 8 or 10 cards a box, and it just never had the secondary value to make it in the "high-end" category. Now that $700-$1k a box is no longer just the "high-end," maybe the perception changes a bit? I feel like if the exact same cards were printed on thin stock in formats more similar to Select, people would be all over it the same as they were for Mosaic.

No clue. It gets talked about every year but who really knows.

Chromium Fatigue? The 130 Point Stock? The time of year it's released?

What makes Spectra stand out? What is the chase? It has everything these other products have. Is 130 Point Stock a good enough chase? Apparently not.

I thought the Nebula parallel would have been a fine chase, but now you can snag it in other configurations. It's just this odd product that doesn't really have a footing in the hobby yet. Will this year be the year? I suspect not.

[Chris P]

Originally Posted by GeechQuest

No clue. It gets talked about every year but who really knows.

Chromium Fatigue? The 130 Point Stock? The time of year it's released?

What makes Spectra stand out? What is the chase? It has everything these other products have. Is 130 Point Stock a good enough chase? Apparently not.

I thought the Nebula parallel would have been a fine chase, but now you can snag it in other configurations. It's just this odd product that doesn't really have a footing in the hobby yet. Will this year be the year? I suspect not.

Maybe having the Color Blast insert will help it a bit? Not saying it's going to start selling at a super higher rate but it certainly doesn't hurt