So wait.. We're NOT in a new junk wax era..?

[mindcycle]

The reasoning people throw around to claim that we're not currently in junk wax era 2.0 is pretty comical to me. Stuff like "Well.. if it's not in every gas station and drugstore then it's not like the 90's." Or.. "It's not all base cards anymore, so it can't be considered junk wax". Panini is selling a ton of product online so they really don't need to put product in every store anymore like the 90's manufacturers did. I'm sure if they thought it would be profitable they would, but not really necessary in the modern age. And just because a card has a serial number doesn't mean it can automatically be excluded from the "junk wax" designation (look at totals below). So instead of trying to defend a more or less educated guess on my part every time this topic comes up, I decided to gather some data.

The point of this post is not to say that collecting isn't fun, or that you should stop collecting modern cards. I still enjoy putting Nuggets team sets together for various products each year and i'm still doing that. It's simply meant to provide some factual data for some healthy conversation (or not, whatever floats your boat.. ) on the topic. Maybe also help some of the new collectors, or returning collectors, visually see what is happening right now so they can come to their own conclusions.

I've used Beckett's website to sort data for some of the hottest rookies from past and present. The first search for each player is the total number of "products". This really equates to total cards featuring that player from their rookie year. This includes parallels, so that must be taken into account as well. I then filter by RC designation, which essentially gives us what Beckett deems a true RC and not an insert. I'm not sure if the RC filter is entirely meaningful in later years when we have things like memorabilia cards (think RPA's) possibly being excluded. But I thought it was interesting nonetheless.

I also filtered these results by NBA cards only. For example, I didn't include Scoreboard or Classic cards for Shaq since those were college licensed. Or for Zion i've filtering out South Bay and only included Panini manufactured cards. It honestly doesn't make a huge difference to the total number, but I felt stuff like that needed to be excluded so the data is more accurate. Also keep in mind we're still not fully through Zion's rookie year so not all "products" are listed yet. There also isn't a RC filter for Zion yet so I don't have a way to provide that data at this time. I will edit this post if I find a way to do that.

So here we go..

1992 Shaq cards
51 Total Cards
7 RC's



1997 Tim Duncan cards
137 total cards
18 RC's



2003 LeBron cards
633 total cards
62 RC's



2018 Luka Doncic cards
1270 total cards
27 RC's



2019 Zion cards
1519 total cards
RC's unknown at this time


So there you go. I think it's worth noting again that as we've moved more into the modern age, parallel and serial number cards have become more common place, and thus cause a pretty large uptick in the total "products", or total card count. But to me, this just makes it even harder to determine what a truly desirable card is going to be in the future since we now have 1,500+ different cards to choose from..

[abidtsteele]

The number of rookie cards is way up. I think if you are just looking at everything is its entirety then its easy to think junk wax 2.0

If you stay away from base cards and just go off variations or serial numbered cards though, even with the increase in number of cards, id bet that the actual print runs are well below the junk wax era.

Would love to see someone with the ability and knowledge calculate something like that out.

I think if you are spend large money on true base cards then you better pray you pick the right one or get out before the market corrects

Sent from my SM-G975U using Tapatalk

[slightlyrounded]

Kind of the best of both worlds now - if you want to "collect", there's a ton more variety and price-points for any player or collecting theme; Conversely, if you want to "invest", you're supported by manufactured scarcity and whatever group-think is driving up at the moment.

As a collector in both eras, can confirm the difference is real.

[oldgoldy97]

If you’re going to equate junk wax with the numbers of rookie cards for a player then I guess you cracked the code.

[valmak]

Cards are way nicer today. Those old cards literally looked like junk.

[RogerGodahell]

Some of what they printed in the 90's probably was limited quantity. But it's kind of misleading because if you go into the 80's they were definitely printed in mass quantities even though there were only a handful of different products. So your numbers would be even more skewed. That doesn't mean 80's cards are rarer because there were only 2-3 different products though. Try convincing someone that '87 Topps baseball is rare.

They do make a lot more different products now there's no denying that. That's why most collectors that have been around for awhile will tell you to stick to the serial numbered stuff or low print run stuff for that particular product. They've spread it out across more different products. Imo it's certainly better now though then having a +100,000 print run of one card back then. But to each their own.

[KhalDrogo]

Did you collect in the 80s and early 90s?

[dcarado]

"Junk wax" is just another function of supply and demand. In the '90s, supply got to a level that there just wasn't enough demand to support. Will we get to a new junk wax level? Maybe. Are we there yet? Nope.

[mindcycle]

Originally Posted by abidtsteele

If you stay away from base cards and just go off variations or serial numbered cards though, even with the increase in number of cards, id bet that the actual print runs are well below the junk wax era.

Would love to see someone with the ability and knowledge calculate something like that out.

Same here. I knew this would come up, but figured i'd wait until someone brought it up instead of just me stating my opinion outright since there's no way to really accurately answer that question. If we're talking purely numbers, then 90's junk wax probably wins. There were 3 different card companies at the time, can't forget that.

What i'm more comparing here is not just the pure numbers, but the number of cards to choose from. What happens 10 or 20 years down the road? The masses seemed to have picked graded copies of UD, Topps, etc.. for Shaq, Duncan, Kobe, as the ones to have. What will that look like for Luka or Zion? Will base even matter or be considered a desirable pickup when there are 60+ parallels to choose from? That's really the more important question, at least to me.

Originally Posted by slightlyrounded

Kind of the best of both worlds now - if you want to "collect", there's a ton more variety and price-points for any player or collecting theme; Conversely, if you want to "invest", you're supported by manufactured scarcity and whatever group-think is driving up at the moment.

As a collector in both eras, can confirm the difference is real.

Great way to look at it. This is what I look at to when putting my team seats together.

Originally Posted by oldgoldy97

If you’re going to equate junk wax with the numbers of rookie cards for a player then I guess you cracked the code.

Not sure if this is sarcasm (pretty sure it is), but if you reread my post i'm not just looking RC's. This is just some interesting data that shows treads over time, and illustrates the sheer number of "cards" to collect in today's market. Sure, i'm a bit biased, if you couldn't tell, lol, but I think that's ok. Anyone is free to disagree with me, that was kind of the whole point of the post.

[RogerGodahell]

Originally Posted by KhalDrogo

Did you collect in the 80s and early 90s?

I did yes i can attest 100% what it was like back then. Cards were super easy to buy and available at pretty much every gas station, supermarket, retail store, as well as 1000's of LCS scattered everywhere across America . You could buy as much as you wanted.

[oldgoldy97]

Originally Posted by RogerGodahell

I did yes i can attest 100% what it was like back then. Cards were super easy to buy and available at pretty much every gas station, supermarket, retail store, as well as 1000's of LCS scattered everywhere across America . You could buy as much as you wanted.

Don’t forget mail order.

And Classifieds.


How many people on here even remember the Classifieds?

[smalltown]

Originally Posted by dcarado

"Junk wax" is just another function of supply and demand. In the '90s, supply got to a level that there just wasn't enough demand to support. Will we get to a new junk wax level? Maybe. Are we there yet? Nope.

This is true to a point. But speaking as someone who collected back then people didn't realize the "true" demand until they tried cashing out their retirement funds. Real demand is usually hit/capped out far before the people realize it.

Originally Posted by RogerGodahell

You could buy as much as you wanted.

And you can do the same today. Product is readily available at many online retailers. The difference is price point. You could buy and rip 19-20 Prizm all day every day if you so choose to spend the money. Unopened product is there to purchase - it's not rare.

[mindcycle]

Originally Posted by valmak

Cards are way nicer today. Those old cards literally looked like junk.

Lol. I guess that's one way to define it.

Originally Posted by RogerGodahell

Some of what they printed in the 90's probably was limited quantity. But it's kind of misleading because if you go into the 80's they were definitely printed in mass quantities even though there were only a handful of different products. So your numbers would be even more skewed. That doesn't mean 80's cards are rarer because there were only 2-3 different products though. Try convincing someone that '87 Topps baseball is rare.

They do make a lot more different products now there's no denying that. That's why most collectors that have been around for awhile will tell you to stick to the serial numbered stuff or low print run stuff for that particular product. They've spread it out across more different products. Imo it's certainly better now though then having a +100,000 print run of one card back then. But to each their own.

Yeah, I went over this in my above post but I do agree with this. Beckett data isn't the perfect compassion, but it's interesting to at least see things visually IMO.

Not that I totally disagree, but i've always wondered why people are telling others to stick to serial numbered cards, is that really a safe bet nowadays? In the late 90's sure. Even throughout the 2000's to some extent. But nowadays when Prizm is cracking 60+ different parallels this year if you just make sure you're buying serial numbered, is that really good enough? It seems like pretty much everything is serial numbered anymore, and is mostly used as a way to provide "value" for a box of cards instead of provide actual rarity like we saw in years past. Just my thought on that matter

Originally Posted by KhalDrogo

Did you collect in the 80s and early 90s?

Yes

Originally Posted by dcarado

"Junk wax" is just another function of supply and demand. In the '90s, supply got to a level that there just wasn't enough demand to support. Will we get to a new junk wax level? Maybe. Are we there yet? Nope.

Possibly. Or are people just hoarding then sitting on product looking for a huge profit down the road? Or are they just flat out not buying certain product due to the increased cost and distributors are sitting on a lot of it?

Personally, with Panini era cards/parallels I collect i've seen a decrease in those cards showing up on the secondary market this year. Think prizm/optic golds, mojo's, stuff like that. Where in years past I would easily complete my sets the first few weeks of release. And I constantly look for these, it's not like they've slipped under the table. While not the best data point, that to me shows a decrease in product broken, not a lack of product.

[buckunteer]

I realize the comparisons being made here for the most part, but the moniker "junk wax" is pretty misleading since it literally doesn't stay in stock, even at retail outlets, and sells for double (or more) online immediately after it gets poached by friends of distributors.

Tough to tell how much is being made for sure but given the overwhelming demand it's not junk...at least not for the foreseeable future.

[oldgoldy97]

Originally Posted by smalltown

This is true to a point. But speaking as someone who collected back then people didn't realize the "true" demand until they tried cashing out their retirement funds. Real demand is usually hit/capped out far before the people realize it.



And you can do the same today. Product is readily available at many online retailers. The difference is price point. You could buy and rip 19-20 Prizm all day every day if you so choose to spend the money. Unopened product is there to purchase - it's not rare.

My LCS still has 87 Donruss baseball. Not a lick of 19-20 Prizm.

I guess a definition of junk wax needs to be determined.

And then for that definition to be twisted and adjusted to meet people’s narratives.

[oldgoldy97]

And here I thought nobody used Beckett anymore

[smalltown]

Originally Posted by oldgoldy97

My LCS still has 87 Donruss baseball. Not a lick of 19-20 Prizm.

I guess a definition of junk wax needs to be determined.

And then for that definition to be twisted and adjusted to meet people’s narratives.

My LCS has nothing besides Hockey. That doesn’t mean other stuff doesn’t exist. It’s just all been bought for resale and speculation. The product is still available. Bought product or held product doesn’t cease to exist. You can buy as much Prizm as you want to open right now. Only thing stopping you is price.

[mindcycle]

Originally Posted by RogerGodahell

I did yes i can attest 100% what it was like back then. Cards were super easy to buy and available at pretty much every gas station, supermarket, retail store, as well as 1000's of LCS scattered everywhere across America . You could buy as much as you wanted.

I think smalltown sums up my thoughts on this nicely.

Originally Posted by smalltown

And you can do the same today. Product is readily available at many online retailers. The difference is price point. You could buy and rip 19-20 Prizm all day every day if you so choose to spend the money. Unopened product is there to purchase - it's not rare.

And not to say you're completely wrong either. I think when you look at pure numbers, 90's probably wins. There were 3 companies producing cards at that time so that has to be considered as well. But what I disagree with (and you don't say this directly) but buying product today is still just as easy as it was back then. Now it's just ponying up the extra money it takes to buy said product from all the hoarders selling on eBay, or the massively inflated prices from distributors. You can buy anything you want still.. for a price..

[mindcycle]

Originally Posted by oldgoldy97

My LCS still has 87 Donruss baseball. Not a lick of 19-20 Prizm.

I guess a definition of junk wax needs to be determined.

And then for that definition to be twisted and adjusted to meet people’s narratives.

You sure you're not twisting it to meet your narrative?

[n1nesports]

Originally Posted by buckunteer

I realize the comparisons being made here for the most part, but the monker "junk wax" is pretty misleading since it literally doesn't stay in stock, even at retail outlets, and sells for double (or more) online immediately after it gets poached by friends of distributors.

Tough to tell how much is being made for sure but given the overwhelming demand it's not junk...at least not for the foreseeable future.

This is true.

The demand is just too high at this moment, hence the outrageous prices.

[mindcycle]

Originally Posted by n1nesports

This is true.

The demand is just too high at this moment, hence the outrageous prices.

It's in demand sure, but it's not unobtainable. As long as you pony up and spend the Walmart/Target hoarders inflated eBay prices, or jacked up distributors prices. Plenty to be had still.

[KhalDrogo]

Junk wax earned its name because the cards were junk. Are you really trying to argue that today's cards are junk?

[RogerGodahell]

Originally Posted by smalltown

And you can do the same today. Product is readily available at many online retailers. The difference is price point. You could buy and rip 19-20 Prizm all day every day if you so choose to spend the money. Unopened product is there to purchase - it's not rare.

Kind of. It's not nearly as easily attainable though. I can't just run down the the store (any type of store) and grab a few packs every time i get the itch like i did back then. I have to drive an hour to the closest Walmart or Target. And even then it's a crapshoot if they've got anything on the shelf. You're right though i could order them online at an increases price if wanted to. The hobby is a totally different world then it was back then.

[oldgoldy97]

Originally Posted by mindcycle

You sure you're not twisting it to meet your narrative?

It’s your thread, my man. You define it.

[mindcycle]

Originally Posted by KhalDrogo

Junk wax earned its name because the cards were junk. Are you really trying to argue that today's cards are junk?

Yes.

Just a different beast. Now it's "junk" prizm base cards in fancy plastic cases. Or "junk" /25 serial numbered cards where 10 different parallels in the same product are /25.

I'm not saying everyone has to agree with me, but seeing 1,500 different Zion cards before all releases have even come out is a bit concerning is it not?