2019-20 Panini Mosaic Retail

[Spacemanspif]

Bought about 20 Megas around $125 average, hopefully I'll be able to hold most of them to sell back later but so far I've opened 4 and done very well:

3 Zion Debut
3 Zion RC
Zion Debut Reactive Blue
Ja Debut
2 Ja Debut Reactive Blue
Magic Johnson HOF Genesis
Rui Reactive Blue
Sekou Reactive Blue
Curry USA Reactive Blue
Trae Mosaic Silver
Duncan Robinson Mosaic Silver
RJ Debut Mosaic Silver
Durant USA True Silver

Granted, I got extremely lucky hitting 7 Zions in 4 boxes, but this reminded me of the analysis I did back on first release: Megas give you a disproportionate amount of base rookies and a very solid amount of color and other Prizms compared to the other formats. I hope there's another reload this week, I don't ever use FB but I'd be willing to pick up another 20 if I could get them for under $120

[CircleTheWagon]

Found a crap ton of Mosaic this past weekend so gonna try my best to hold until the season at least. One mega had a tear in the wrapping so decided to rip it now. Wasn’t disappointed! No dots or prints lines on the Ja too which is always a bonus when ripping Mosaic.

[Thankful1]

Originally Posted by CircleTheWagon

Found a crap ton of Mosaic this past weekend so gonna try my best to hold until the season at least. One mega had a tear in the wrapping so decided to rip it now. Wasn’t disappointed! No dots or prints lines on the Ja too which is always a bonus when ripping Mosaic.

Awesome! And again, tempting me to rip what I got last week too!

How short printed are the Rookie Variations from the hangers? My understanding is they are hanger exclusive and just wondering how they compare in terms of print run to some oft he baseball SP, SSP, SSSP situations?

[chrisl2020]

Was this restock really a last week thing? Wondering how worthwhile it is to check local Walmarts.

[k13]

More stocked this week.

[BRob1]

Originally Posted by eastbayak

Very nice!! Are you planning to pick more up?

To be honest, I hope do they restock a few more times. I don't mind if the price drops, I'll just cost average down as I'm very bullish on these (as you are). I originally tried to buy some at $100 per but got no bites (all those guys saying they could easily find them at $100 per on FB....I'm disappointed lol) but maybe that'll become a reality soon. To be safe though, I upped my offer to secure some (definitely don't want to miss out in case they don't restock anymore).

Originally Posted by Spacemanspif

Bought about 20 Megas around $125 average, hopefully I'll be able to hold most of them to sell back later but so far I've opened 4 and done very well:

3 Zion Debut
3 Zion RC
Zion Debut Reactive Blue
Ja Debut
2 Ja Debut Reactive Blue
Magic Johnson HOF Genesis
Rui Reactive Blue
Sekou Reactive Blue
Curry USA Reactive Blue
Trae Mosaic Silver
Duncan Robinson Mosaic Silver
RJ Debut Mosaic Silver
Durant USA True Silver

Granted, I got extremely lucky hitting 7 Zions in 4 boxes, but this reminded me of the analysis I did back on first release: Megas give you a disproportionate amount of base rookies and a very solid amount of color and other Prizms compared to the other formats. I hope there's another reload this week, I don't ever use FB but I'd be willing to pick up another 20 if I could get them for under $120

I’m on the fence about picking up more, only because I’m unsure how much the supply has been increased by.

What do you guys think price is at on say Jan 1. Right now you can find $120 shipped fairly easily, not much lower though. At $180 shipped when you sell you’d need to be selling them through Facebook or somewhere else to save on fees to make it worthwhile.

I figure $15 per to ship single boxes, maybe $10 per if you are selling in bulk. So on one box you net $165 before fees, $144 after if you sold through eBay. If you saved that 10% though and went through Facebook you’re at $160 per. Not sure how realistic it is to find Facebook buyers at $180 regularly.

Question is, where are these in price in 2 months?

[Thankful1]

Originally Posted by BRob1

I’m on the fence about picking up more, only because I’m unsure how much the supply has been increased by.

What do you guys think price is at on say Jan 1. Right now you can find $120 shipped fairly easily, not much lower though. At $180 shipped when you sell you’d need to be selling them through Facebook or somewhere else to save on fees to make it worthwhile.

I figure $15 per to ship single boxes, maybe $10 per if you are selling in bulk. So on one box you net $165 before fees, $144 after if you sold through eBay. If you saved that 10% though and went through Facebook you’re at $160 per. Not sure how realistic it is to find Facebook buyers at $180 regularly.

Question is, where are these in price in 2 months?

I believe most have established recent stock is original stock (based on print stamp of 4/20 maybe?)

Question I have is for 2020 what will Mosaic rank in retail releases? 2 years from now, if RC pans out, will it be pursued like Prizm or close or will it not be desired in the future?

I probably just plan to hold what I have, which I’ve never done before, for awhile just to see?

[BRob1]

Originally Posted by Thankful1

I believe most have established recent stock is original stock (based on print stamp of 4/20 maybe?)

Question I have is for 2020 what will Mosaic rank in retail releases? 2 years from now, if RC pans out, will it be pursued like Prizm or close or will it not be desired in the future?

I probably just plan to hold what I have, which I’ve never done before, for awhile just to see?

Agreed, i believe it is original stock as well, it still has increased the supply in the market substantially.

I will likely pick up more if there is a restock this week and prices drop, and hold some longer term and try to sell some this winter if prices rebound. Initially I was confident we’d see prices back to $200, and I think that’s still possible. Given the choice to chase Zion and Ja or chase Edwards and Lamelo, I still believe demand for 2019 product will be strong.


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[maj78]

Originally Posted by k13

More stocked this week.

Are you certain?

[detroitbball]

Originally Posted by maj78

Are you certain?

I don't really know, other than I've seen listings on ebay starting to tick back up again today. Not as much as last week, but it is starting to go up. Suggests another restock this week, but maybe not as much.

[Howie7107]

Originally Posted by k13

More stocked this week.

Originally Posted by maj78

Are you certain?

Originally Posted by detroitbball

I don't really know, other than I've seen listings on ebay starting to tick back up again today. Not as much as last week, but it is starting to go up. Suggests another restock this week, but maybe not as much.

Most of what is stocked today is more likely stock from last week that didn’t get put out, as is my understanding. I do think more is showing up this week though. One and done would be pretty strange. Might just be Megas, but WMs saw those for 3-4 weeks with Optic Mega restock back in June.

[eastbayak]

Originally Posted by BRob1

I’m on the fence about picking up more, only because I’m unsure how much the supply has been increased by.

What do you guys think price is at on say Jan 1. Right now you can find $120 shipped fairly easily, not much lower though. At $180 shipped when you sell you’d need to be selling them through Facebook or somewhere else to save on fees to make it worthwhile.

I figure $15 per to ship single boxes, maybe $10 per if you are selling in bulk. So on one box you net $165 before fees, $144 after if you sold through eBay. If you saved that 10% though and went through Facebook you’re at $160 per. Not sure how realistic it is to find Facebook buyers at $180 regularly.

Question is, where are these in price in 2 months?

Haha yeah, it's hard to know how much of the original stock was held back.

Assuming economic conditions are similar between now and then, and the main rookies from the 2019-20 draft class (particularly Zion and Ja) are healthy and able to play, I see the megas hitting >= $200 at the start of next season (which I believe is currently set for 1/18/21).

Hell, even if Zion isn't ready to go, megas will probably still hit >=$200 per. Just look at blasters (32 cards), they're consistently selling for $100 per (megas have 2.5x more cards [80]).

Also, by looking at Panini's 2020-21 NBA release calendar, no "big" product will release until 3/3/21 (aka undistracted until around late Feb).

[eastbayak]

Originally Posted by Howie7107

Most of what is stocked today is more likely stock from last week that didn’t get put out, as is my understanding. I do think more is showing up this week though. One and done would be pretty strange. Might just be Megas, but WMs saw those for 3-4 weeks with Optic Mega restock back in June.

I don't remember the specifics (so please correct me if I'm wrong) but wasn't Optic Megas reprinted whereas Mosaic is just original stock that wasn't shelved due to the pandemic?

[BRob1]

Originally Posted by eastbayak

Haha yeah, it's hard to know how much of the original stock was held back.

Assuming economic conditions are similar between now and then, and the main rookies from the 2019-20 draft class (particularly Zion and Ja) are healthy and able to play, I see the megas hitting >= $200 at the start of next season (which I believe is currently set for 1/18/21).

Hell, even if Zion isn't ready to go, megas will probably still hit >=$200 per. Just look at blasters (32 cards), they're consistently selling for $100 per (megas have 2.5x more cards [80]).

Also, by looking at Panini's 2020-21 NBA release calendar, no "big" product will release until 3/3/21 (aka undistracted until around late Feb).

That’s a good call that prizm doesn’t come out until march. Last I’m hearing is that the league actually wants to start on 12/22 now if the players association will agree.

The thing that has made me slightly nervous is that for awhile blasters were impervious to the new stock of megas/hangers, holding at $100. Seems like on ebay price has dropped to $80 in the last couple of days, which was really inevitable. At $80, that’s still $2.50/card, which would imply $200 for a mega at $2.50/card... so still a good indicator once these stop being stocked.


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[Spacemanspif]

Originally Posted by eastbayak

Haha yeah, it's hard to know how much of the original stock was held back.

Assuming economic conditions are similar between now and then, and the main rookies from the 2019-20 draft class (particularly Zion and Ja) are healthy and able to play, I see the megas hitting >= $200 at the start of next season (which I believe is currently set for 1/18/21).

Hell, even if Zion isn't ready to go, megas will probably still hit >=$200 per. Just look at blasters (32 cards), they're consistently selling for $100 per (megas have 2.5x more cards [80]).

Also, by looking at Panini's 2020-21 NBA release calendar, no "big" product will release until 3/3/21 (aka undistracted until around late Feb).

Originally Posted by BRob1

That’s a good call that prizm doesn’t come out until march. Last I’m hearing is that the league actually wants to start on 12/22 now if the players association will agree.

The thing that has made me slightly nervous is that for awhile blasters were impervious to the new stock of megas/hangers, holding at $100. Seems like on ebay price has dropped to $80 in the last couple of days, which was really inevitable. At $80, that’s still $2.50/card, which would imply $200 for a mega at $2.50/card... so still a good indicator once these stop being stocked.


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I'd also target $200+, because the surge in supply is only temporary, and while we may never have a surge in demand as great as this past summer again, it'll be a slow trickle of sales that will eventually dry up the ebay supply, you just have to be patient.

As Eastbayak pointed out, you have to think in terms of $/card, because that is how the consumer will view it when making a decision on where to put their money. This not only plays out when comparing formats amongst Mosaic, but also in terms of alternative series like Prizm and Optic. Right now, Mosaic is ~$1.50/card due to the supply surge, Optic is ~$4/card, Prizm is ~$10/card. Do those relationships hold up long term? My thought would be no, and I'd expect them to trend closer together over time.

I don't remember what the Optic Megas dropped to when they had the brief reload, does anyone remember? Seems like they're back up to $160 range now so that might be a good barometer in terms of % return

[Howie7107]

Originally Posted by eastbayak

I don't remember the specifics (so please correct me if I'm wrong) but wasn't Optic Megas reprinted whereas Mosaic is just original stock that wasn't shelved due to the pandemic?

I think the closest indication we got as to where the Optic Megas came from was a comment on a Podcast by a Panini higher-up that said they pulled some back due to concerns that COViD may cause them to shut down their production. That logic was the reason I figured there was weight to the Mosaic rumors. Moreover, if the Mosaic pullback was done in the same vein of thinking then seems to reason they have another week or two of Megas (hopefully Hangers too) to go.

[Howie7107]

Originally Posted by Spacemanspif

I'd also target $200+, because the surge in supply is only temporary, and while we may never have a surge in demand as great as this past summer again, it'll be a slow trickle of sales that will eventually dry up the ebay supply, you just have to be patient.

As Eastbayak pointed out, you have to think in terms of $/card, because that is how the consumer will view it when making a decision on where to put their money. This not only plays out when comparing formats amongst Mosaic, but also in terms of alternative series like Prizm and Optic. Right now, Mosaic is ~$1.50/card due to the supply surge, Optic is ~$4/card, Prizm is ~$10/card. Do those relationships hold up long term? My thought would be no, and I'd expect them to trend closer together over time.

I don't remember what the Optic Megas dropped to when they had the brief reload, does anyone remember? Seems like they're back up to $160 range now so that might be a good barometer in terms of % return

Optic Megas bottomed around $80.

[Spacemanspif]

Originally Posted by Howie7107

Optic Megas bottomed around $80.

Thanks, so around 100% return is where we are now, in what, a couple months?

If that were to hold true for Mosaic, seems like the ebay bottom is around $120, which would put them back at $240. I think the highest they went was ~$350, so a range of $200-250 seems realistic to me

[dunkindutchmen]

Just got 4 Megas I bought for $125 a piece on ebay. I opened 1 and I'm supposed to keep 3 for down the road but it's going to be hard. Got both Zion rookies and Ja red/blue prizm.

How do you tell which are the genesis? They are just blue/green?

[bigmclargehuge1]

Originally Posted by dunkindutchmen

Just got 4 Megas I bought for $125 a piece on ebay. I opened 1 and I'm supposed to keep 3 for down the road but it's going to be hard. Got both Zion rookies and Ja red/blue prizm.

How do you tell which are the genesis? They are just blue/green?

black with blue swirl. just search ebay...

[k13]

Originally Posted by maj78

Are you certain?

Yes.

Left over Megas and first time hangers here.
Probably the last week though.

[k13]

How much were hangers before 2nd wave?

[BRob1]

Originally Posted by k13

How much were hangers before 2nd wave?

prices were all over the place, but averaging about $85-90 shipped.


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[k13]

Amazing. One week and price drops 50%.

If the Prizm rumor becomes true that should take blasters to $175

[BRob1]

Originally Posted by k13

Amazing. One week and price drops 50%.

If the Prizm rumor becomes true that should take blasters to $175

The prizm rumor seems more unsubstantiated. the mosaic rumor had meat on the bone going back several months. With prizm it’s more just “heard from a guy who heard from a guy.” Is there an actual source behind the prizm restocking rumors?


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