2020 Politics Thread - Enter At Your Own Risk - RULES IN OP - Page 2300

Jgil316 · 11-04-2020, 02:47 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cnewby

...yet Trump won it 49-46 in 2016.

I know that - demographics change over time.

Jopeal · 11-04-2020, 02:47 PM

Maricopa County is out of control.

Biden could pick up another 7-13k votes outside of Maricopa though.

NeedChapmans · 11-04-2020, 02:51 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by calculusdork

What's the expected R/D split for this county? It was 49/46 in 2016.

EDIT: I guess these being mail-in or ED votes matters.

Yea, so it was 49/46 in '16 and right now it's 52/46 Joe. -3 to +6 is a big shift for Phoenix; something that we didn't see in other cities (they all actually leaned Trump). Phoenix is not like other cities but all the same a 9 point swing is a big swing.

Same in Pima. Shifted to Biden by the same 9 points as Maricopa. Is that because the R vote hasn't been all counted? (95,000 votes left in Pima).

IDK.

daviswr7 · 11-04-2020, 02:52 PM

i feel like this is a live version of an episode of Veep.

NeedChapmans · 11-04-2020, 02:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Jopeal

Maricopa County is out of control.

Biden could pick up another 7-13k votes outside of Maricopa though.

He might have vote in Pima but again, it's all late vote so it will be redder than what's already in there.

We'll have some info at 9:00 ET. If that first 250,000 vote dump gives Trump at least 40,000 votes; buckle up.

tennelson55 · 11-04-2020, 02:53 PM

For people saying Trump won't drag this out...
Sue Michigan is the answer.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/trump-cam...190443797.html

f2tornado · 11-04-2020, 02:54 PM

Barring an unexpected change in AZ or NV, it's looking like a 270-268 win for Biden. It's quite possible Omaha handed Biden keys for the White House. Maybe some Democrats will buy Peyton Manning cards. It won't get much play, but some will argue the GOP and NeverTrumpers are the real winner here. They dump Trump and should hold 51 Senate seats with a potential for maintaining 53. Biden's potentially a dead stick from Day 1.

CJsHockeyCards · 11-04-2020, 02:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by tennelson55

For people saying Trump won't drag this out...
Sue Michigan is the answer.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/trump-cam...190443797.html

Maybe because there's voter fraud?

https://twitter.com/JamessReality/st...240551426?s=20

NeedChapmans · 11-04-2020, 02:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by f2tornado

Barring an unexpected change in AZ or NV, it's looking like a 270-268 win for Biden. It's quite possible Omaha handed Biden keys for the White House. Maybe some Democrats will buy Peyton Manning cards. It won't get much play, but some will argue the GOP and NeverTrumpers are the real winner here. They dump Trump and should hold 51 Senate seats with a potential for maintaining 53. Biden's potentially a dead stick from Day 1.

This could happen. 270-268 is very possible.

BTW, John James back up 21,000 votes in Michigan, Monroe county is in. Some James vote left in the state in sporadic places and the only vote left for Peters is in Detroit (how much, IDK, but probably enough).

calculusdork · 11-04-2020, 02:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by NeedChapmans

Yea, so it was 49/46 in '16 and right now it's 52/46 Joe. -3 to +6 is a big shift for Phoenix; something that we didn't see in other cities (they all actually leaned Trump). Phoenix is not like other cities but all the same a 9 point swing is a big swing.

Same in Pima. Shifted to Biden by the same 9 points as Maricopa. Is that because the R vote hasn't been all counted? (95,000 votes left in Pima).

IDK.

So it really does stand to reason that the remaining vote will lean R. Approximately 4500 vote swing for every 1% R advantage in what remains there.

55/45 R/D: 45,000 votes
60/40 R/D: 90,000 votes

Gotta be more of the 60/40 variety.

Onepocketj · 11-04-2020, 02:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CJsHockeyCards

Maybe because there's voter fraud?

https://twitter.com/JamessReality/st...240551426?s=20

Lmao. The fact that people believe this is just sad

cnewby · 11-04-2020, 03:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Onepocketj

Lmao. The fact that people dismiss this is just sad

FIFY.

NeedChapmans · 11-04-2020, 03:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by calculusdork

So it really does stand to reason that the remaining vote will lean R. Approximately 4500 vote swing for every 1% R advantage in what remains there.

55/45 R/D: 45,000 votes
60/40 R/D: 90,000 votes

Gotta be more of the 60/40 variety.

Yes. 600,000 votes out so the breakdown for Trump is 58/42 to get it done.

Eckstein197 · 11-04-2020, 03:02 PM

Rough quick math, if Trump wants to flip Arizona, of the roughly 440,000 votes left, he needs to make up about 93,000 votes. Needs over 60.5% of the votes to go his way or else Biden takes AZ

NeedChapmans · 11-04-2020, 03:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Eckstein197

Rough quick math, if Trump wants to flip Arizona, of the roughly 440,000 votes left, he needs to make up about 93,000 votes. Needs over 60.5% of the votes to go his way or else Biden takes AZ

~610,000 votes left.

450,000 in Maricopa county. 160,000 elsewhere.

The Maricopa vote should be redder, the rest less red (but still quite possibly red).

Jopeal · 11-04-2020, 03:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by NeedChapmans

He might have vote in Pima but again, it's all late vote so it will be redder than what's already in there.

We'll have some info at 9:00 ET. If that first 250,000 vote dump gives Trump at least 40,000 votes; buckle up.

Yeah maybe I overestimated those additional votes outside of Maricopa.

This is when the outstanding votes become too unclear for me to figure what to expect.

fadster · 11-04-2020, 03:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by calculusdork

So it really does stand to reason that the remaining vote will lean R. Approximately 4500 vote swing for every 1% R advantage in what remains there.

55/45 R/D: 45,000 votes
60/40 R/D: 90,000 votes

Gotta be more of the 60/40 variety.

He needs at least 60/40, it looks a tall ask. After coming back to D 65/35 R the betting markets have gone back up to D 75/25 R for AZ.

MIRRABB · 11-04-2020, 03:06 PM

Yeah, markets moving back Biden's way in AZ at least for the moment.

tennelson55 · 11-04-2020, 03:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CJsHockeyCards

Maybe because there's voter fraud?

https://twitter.com/JamessReality/st...240551426?s=20

Sounds like he's grasping his last breaths

Send it

CJsHockeyCards · 11-04-2020, 03:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by tennelson55

Sounds like he's grasping his last breaths

Send it

Just wondering, how do you even justify this? I mean if Biden is going to win, that's fine. Just make sure it's a fair election.

NeedChapmans · 11-04-2020, 03:11 PM

NC is officially over. What's left is 112,000 unreturned absentee ballots and NC law allows for those to trickle in. Not gonna make up the number they need. (And won't be tallied til November 12th).

Somebody call this already.

CJsHockeyCards · 11-04-2020, 03:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by NeedChapmans

NC is officially over. What's left is 112,000 unreturned absentee ballots and NC law allows for those to trickle in. Not gonna make up the number they need. (And won't be tallied til November 12th).

Somebody call this already.

They aren't calling any states for Trump. The democrats need to see how many ballots they need to create.

NeedChapmans · 11-04-2020, 03:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CJsHockeyCards

They aren't calling any states for Trump. The democrats need to see how many ballots they need to create.

Well this is why this nonsense about the absentees coming in until the 12th is so screwed up. Imagine the Trump lead in NC was 10,000 votes and not 75,000. Those 112k absentees could swing the state and the election; and we won't know that for 8 more days. Pretty sure most of these won't be returned, or accepted but still.

Insanity. How someone thought this to be a good idea is beyond me.

GOWIFB · 11-04-2020, 03:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CJsHockeyCards

They aren't calling any states for Trump. The democrats need to see how many ballots they need to create.

Did you steal this off trumps Twitter feed? If not I'm sure he would love to retweet it.

tennelson55 · 11-04-2020, 03:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CJsHockeyCards

Just wondering, how do you even justify this? I mean if Biden is going to win, that's fine. Just make sure it's a fair election.

Why's he questioning it to begin with? Michigan put this into place and the Michigan government isn't going to risk helping Biden with a few thousand votes. Michigan is penciled in blue for a reason... Don't get it skewed

View Poll Results: Who wins these elections? (you can pick multiple)
Donald Trump	44	53.66%
Joe Biden	38	46.34%
Trump Wins Florida	44	53.66%
Biden Wins Florida	16	19.51%
Trump Wins Georgia	44	53.66%
Biden Wins Georgia	12	14.63%
Trump Wins Ohio	43	52.44%
Biden Wins Ohio	16	19.51%
Trump Wins Pennsylvania	27	32.93%
Biden Wins Pennsylvania	34	41.46%
Multiple Choice Poll. Voters: 82. You may not vote on this poll

11-04-2020, 02:53 PM	#57481
tennelson55 Member Join Date: Mar 2012 Location: Albany, NY Posts: 5,438 tennelson55	For people saying Trump won't drag this out... Sue Michigan is the answer. https://www.yahoo.com/news/trump-cam...190443797.html __________________ looking for these basketball sets! 99-00 topps east/west, 04-05 ud black diamond gemography autos, 08-09 topps chrome orange refractors, 09-10 certified, 10-11 donruss cracked ice, 11-12 limited xrc non autos, 12-13 prizm, 12-13 brilliance spellbound letters

11-04-2020, 03:02 PM	#57489
Eckstein197 Member Join Date: Nov 2014 Location: Maryland, USA Posts: 14,792 pmwrestler220 Eckstein184	Rough quick math, if Trump wants to flip Arizona, of the roughly 440,000 votes left, he needs to make up about 93,000 votes. Needs over 60.5% of the votes to go his way or else Biden takes AZ __________________ Favorite teams: TB Bucs, MIN Twins, DET Red Wings PC's: Kyle Snyder, Alstott, Tristan Wirfs, Hasek, Moritz Seider, OL/K/P/FB Contenders Autos, Red Wings Young Guns, Vintage Pokémon, NCAA Bowl Patches

11-04-2020, 03:06 PM	#57493
MIRRABB Member Join Date: Feb 2017 Posts: 2,035	Yeah, markets moving back Biden's way in AZ at least for the moment. __________________ Always looking for rare Herman Moore and Michael Redd cards...

11-04-2020, 03:11 PM	#57496
NeedChapmans Member Join Date: Aug 2012 Location: Connecticut Posts: 31,800 ProspectCincy NeedChapmans	NC is officially over. What's left is 112,000 unreturned absentee ballots and NC law allows for those to trickle in. Not gonna make up the number they need. (And won't be tallied til November 12th). Somebody call this already. __________________ It is my legal right to freely profit from the notoriety of people who are actively suffering and possibly even dying and for a few hundred dollars I will gladly seek to maximize those profits.

11-04-2020, 02:47 PM	#57477
Jopeal Member Join Date: Jun 2013 Location: RI Posts: 8,153 dr.jopeal	Maricopa County is out of control. Biden could pick up another 7-13k votes outside of Maricopa though.

11-04-2020, 02:52 PM	#57479
daviswr7 Member Join Date: May 2013 Location: Dagobah Posts: 7,473	i feel like this is a live version of an episode of Veep.

11-04-2020, 02:54 PM	#57482
f2tornado Member Join Date: Dec 2019 Location: Bismarck, ND Posts: 2,299 f2tornado f2tornado	Barring an unexpected change in AZ or NV, it's looking like a 270-268 win for Biden. It's quite possible Omaha handed Biden keys for the White House. Maybe some Democrats will buy Peyton Manning cards. It won't get much play, but some will argue the GOP and NeverTrumpers are the real winner here. They dump Trump and should hold 51 Senate seats with a potential for maintaining 53. Biden's potentially a dead stick from Day 1.