I think the market has leveled out and may be on it's way back up soon....

[TimBuckTwo]

Originally Posted by tommyboiazn23

Wow lol, must be because I have asian in my username. I get it I guess , jesus

Is being racist funny to you?

[tommyboiazn23]

Originally Posted by TimBuckTwo

Is being racist funny to you?

Come on dude, jeeze lol. When I endured it all my life and still do - all I can do is laugh. But it's okay, pile on. Hop on this train while you're at it. I'm ready like Zion is ready for every empty plate in a buffet.

[mc1]

Originally Posted by tommyboiazn23

Wow lol, must be because I have asian in my username. I get it I guess , jesus

Next time just say it was some black guys or mexicans. Bet you wont be called racist if you say that.

[shindo03]

First Hobby Boom Recipe:
1. Everyone is at home cause of the Pandemic
2. PPP Loans, Unemployment, and Stimulus 1
3. Tax Returns
4. Influencers

Second Hobby Boom Recipe:
1. A full Winter with the pandemic and Flu Season, guessing people will start staying home again
2. Once Elections are completely over, hopefully there is a Stimulus 2 Package
3. Tax Returns
4. More Mainstream Media coverage on the hobby
5. An actual NBA Season, don't forget we have never had the Hobby booming during a regular season where we have a game everyday, and if it overlaps with Summer Olympics then there maybe a possibility that players that normally don't get media coverage will suddenly get some because the A-level players will be playing in the playoffs.

Just my humble opinion. Thanks for reading...

[tommyboiazn23]

Originally Posted by mc1

Next time just say it was some black guys or mexicans. Bet you wont be called racist if you say that.

[Birdanski]

I think hoops is ready for a nice jump as well. The holidays is an interesting twist too with the season now starting at that time frame. I think people will maybe splurge on that new card they want? I think Jas and Zions will also pick up nicely since this draft is not very high profile and this I the first full year (knock on wood) for those two.

Then again, I know nothing.....just my guess..haha

Have an awesome night and stay safe

[TimBuckTwo]

Originally Posted by mc1

Next time just say it was some black guys or mexicans. Bet you wont be called racist if you say that.

No he'd get hammered because Black or Mexican trumps White. No pun intended.

[sebreg]

Is there a good up to date and free site that tracks sport cards' indexes over time? I know there are some pay sites, but other than that any good resources?

[gomiamigo]

I think next is the sucker's rally while the smart money heads for the exits.

Look at all the sucker's who got caught wildly overpaying for near-worthless base cards.

[Birdanski]

I don't think you will see that in hoops this season....just my 2 cents

[n1nesports]

Originally Posted by gomiamigo

Look at all the sucker's who got caught wildly overpaying for near-worthless base cards.

How many did you happen to sell?

[solt0131]

Originally Posted by JoeAdam

The problem is it stopped being a hobby and started becoming a quasi stock-market.

No, it has become a Cesspool.

[Tallguy1991]

Originally Posted by patchgenie

must be a lot of 5 year olds buying the pokemon.

Some big YouTuber made a box opening video of a $250,000 1st edition Pokémon box a month or two ago and it sent people into a frenzy. It used to be a kids thing but these days Pokémon seem to be making people grown man money. I wholeheartedly endorse the Pokémon craze and hope it only grows, if the flippers are focused on Pokémon maybe I’ll finally realize my dream of encountering a mega box in the wild. My only target is 40 mins away and I happened to be there yesterday alone in the card aisle when the excel rep came up with a whole cart full of boxes and said “it’s your lucky day, pick through these boxes and take what you want.” I got so excited as he opened the boxes and I went through them to find.....the massive letdown of a bunch of contenders blasters, topps factory sets, my little pony cards, and Pokémon cards (not even the cool kind of Pokémon). First time I’ve ever been lucky enough to run into a vendor and it was fools gold lol


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[DajuanWagner]

Originally Posted by Tallguy1991

Some big YouTuber made a box opening video of a $250,000 1st edition Pokémon box a month or two ago and it sent people into a frenzy. It used to be a kids thing but these days Pokémon seem to be making people grown man money. I wholeheartedly endorse the Pokémon craze and hope it only grows, if the flippers are focused on Pokémon maybe I’ll finally realize my dream of encountering a mega box in the wild. My only target is 40 mins away and I happened to be there yesterday alone in the card aisle when the excel rep came up with a whole cart full of boxes and said “it’s your lucky day, pick through these boxes and take what you want.” I got so excited as he opened the boxes and I went through them to find.....the massive letdown of a bunch of contenders blasters, topps factory sets, my little pony cards, and Pokémon cards (not even the cool kind of Pokémon). First time I’ve ever been lucky enough to run into a vendor and it was fools gold lol


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

He should have said, "it's your unlucky day"......

[FT35]

Originally Posted by gomiamigo

I think next is the sucker's rally while the smart money heads for the exits.

Look at all the sucker's who got caught wildly overpaying for near-worthless base cards.

I don’t know. I’ve been a base card collector since I started collecting in the late 80’s. Sure I’ve got the rare/difficult stuff too, but adding a gem (or at least high grade) copy of key base cards and rookies has always been a thing for me and many others. We’ve never seen these prices, I’ll give you that. But the price goes up the more people get in on it. Also, with the price of wax as high as it is, Prizm base cards are an actual key card given the price to obtain one from solely opening wax.

[sebreg]

Originally Posted by FT35

I don’t know. I’ve been a base card collector since I started collecting in the late 80’s. Sure I’ve got the rare/difficult stuff too, but adding a gem (or at least high grade) copy of key base cards and rookies has always been a thing for me and many others. We’ve never seen these prices, I’ll give you that. But the price goes up the more people get in on it. Also, with the price of wax as high as it is, Prizm base cards are an actual key card given the price to obtain one from solely opening wax.

It'll be interesting to see how things play out. The question is how much of the new money will stick around and keep collecting when/if nasty correction drops a hammer blow? I have no clue so I don't make a guess either way.

[FT35]

Originally Posted by sebreg

It'll be interesting to see how things play out. The question is how much of the new money will stick around and keep collecting when/if nasty correction drops a hammer blow? I have no clue so I don't make a guess either way.

Exactly. Anyone’s guess really. But all I’m saying is to look at the alternative to buying say a PSA 10 19-20 LeBron Prizm base card. Say you get extremely lucky and pull it out of a single mega box that costs you now $500. You have the grading fees—say $15 and you hope it’s a 10. So assuming ALL goes right, if you don’t want to buy a PSA 10 and want to try to pull one—you get lucky on all fronts...you’ve still got a crap ton of $ in that card. All of a sudden, $150+ to get one in 3 days doesn’t sound all that bad to a LeBron collector.

Realistically, my guess is that it would take a minimum of 4-5 mega’s to pull one—then given the low quality of these Prizms, maybe 5-10+ megas to pull a 10. Now you’d get other stuff too with that much product, but the point is, people don’t have many other options. They can’t just go drop $5,000+ on wax to pull one. Now you’re pinned in to paying secondary market prices for “picked over” raw and you’re looking at an adventure to find a 10 that way. The easiest thing to do is cringe, pay up for the 10 and try to sell something else to close that gap down.

Main point here is this. As long as PSA 10 LeBron base cards are at $100-200 or more each—other players will be in that range too—KEEPING the price of wax high—KEEPING the prices of singles up across the board. They feed each other.

[1980bust]

Originally Posted by FT35

All of a sudden, $150+ to get one in 3 days doesn’t sound all that bad to a LeBron collector.

This entirely. For me, there is absolutely no way I'm wasting money on what is probably junk in the hopes of pack-pulling a card I want.

I'd be out the cash, AND have a load of worthless crap on my hands, and now be even FURTHER away from the card I actually want.

Packs never, singles forever.

[GeechQuest]

Originally Posted by FT35

I don’t know. I’ve been a base card collector since I started collecting in the late 80’s. Sure I’ve got the rare/difficult stuff too, but adding a gem (or at least high grade) copy of key base cards and rookies has always been a thing for me and many others. We’ve never seen these prices, I’ll give you that. But the price goes up the more people get in on it. Also, with the price of wax as high as it is, Prizm base cards are an actual key card given the price to obtain one from solely opening wax.

What are the key Panini year rookies though? Outside of Curry, who has an NT RPA and no Prizm, there isn’t really a Hobby darling that has emerged from my point of view.

Luka and Giannis certainly look the part, but it’s just risky because you’re baking in their future success AND the long term desirability of their base rookies which I’m not so high on. I realize I’m in the minority.

[gomiamigo]

Originally Posted by n1nesports

How many did you happen to sell?

IIRC, I sold one Tatum to a LHS because they wanted it. No idea if it's up or down since then I don't follow him.

I pretty much just buy cards. No eBay sales this year, no sales here, etc.

I sold an Immaculate Davis 9.5 rookie at a show pre-Covid though.

[n1nesports]

Originally Posted by gomiamigo

IIRC, I sold one Tatum to a LHS because they wanted it. No idea if it's up or down since then I don't follow him.

I pretty much just buy cards. No eBay sales this year, no sales here, etc.

I sold an Immaculate Davis 9.5 rookie at a show pre-Covid though.

Oh I see, what happened? Wax too pricey these days or you just don't like the products like before? There were years I just bowed out of this whole game because of family life and other crap and MANY sellers on COMC got massive steals on my ports, but I've been back the past year and here for the long haul as long as I can help it lol.

[gomiamigo]

Originally Posted by FT35

I don’t know. I’ve been a base card collector since I started collecting in the late 80’s. Sure I’ve got the rare/difficult stuff too, but adding a gem (or at least high grade) copy of key base cards and rookies has always been a thing for me and many others.

Right but you could have gotten Luka/Trae/Tatum/etc base prizm for virtually zero until very recently. I have no problem with collectors wanting a nice copy of a base card, collect what you like. The issue is the overspeculation and ridic high prices [now lower] on cards with tens of thousands of copies and for player that have never done anything as well, unlike Luka and Ja.

[gomiamigo]

Originally Posted by n1nesports

Oh I see, what happened? Wax too pricey these days or you just don't like the products like before? ... but I've been back the past year and here for the long haul as long as I can help it lol.

Prizm wax too pricey although I opened one hobby and like 2 retail boxes before prices got wildly out of control.

Also waiting on 2 big hits from Panini for guys that have signed many cards from this year's releases, very annoying, it's been almost a year.

[FT35]

Originally Posted by gomiamigo

Right but you could have gotten Luka/Trae/Tatum/etc base prizm for virtually zero until very recently. I have no problem with collectors wanting a nice copy of a base card, collect what you like. The issue is the overspeculation and ridic high prices [now lower] on cards with tens of thousands of copies and for player that have never done anything as well, unlike Luka and Ja.

With ya. The singles prices are catching up to wax because of one basic concept—total cost to obtain. I wouldn’t even call it speculation at this point...it’s just how Prizm is. These cards are not limited. BUT...with wax SO high, you’d have to see wax bottom out at SRP or below to get key base cards back to where they “technically” belong price wise at a buck or 2 a piece. While it may someday crash, I don’t know if you’ll ever see Prizm wax at or near SRP for quite a while.

Check out the old Exquisite model. Now—PR was MUCH more limited than Prizm...less than 300/base card in many cases. But the reason they are so expensive has just as much to do with the cost to obtain as it does the low PR. Prizm won’t match this, but it can get up there on the cost to obtain scale.

Also with Prizm, a larger than normal percentage of product will forever be traded sealed. Meaning the actual availability of graded base cards is considerably lower than the overall PR.

[mbuch21]

The difference between PR and circulated PR (ripped product) is a profound point.
This year’s Prizm /99 is probably, on a circulated PR basis closer to /66 - assuming 2/3 is ripped and 1/3 never will be, at least not for a veeeeery long time.

While technically this is true for every print run in the set (eg base may be 2/3 of a zillion), it is much more acute on scarcity and therefore pricing for lower run cards.

Those NT Zion /99 you see trade once a month - good luck finding the other 90 that may never see the light of day because almost nobody has the guts to rip an NT box at this point. Even the breakers would have a hard time making the math work. In my opinion, that Zion NT /99 probably an /20 card on a circulated basis.

Contrast that Zion with last year’s Luka NT which had a higher % of product ripped, and its clear that NT Luka should be far more plentiful than Zion on a circulated basis.