The End of Flippers is Near

[cjmccreary]

Originally Posted by tcdyess

There are already 15k graded and in the market.... PLUS whatever is at or going to PSA.....

Right, but people talk as if there going to be one big dump on the market at one time. It doesn’t happen that way.


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[Gradek]

Originally Posted by cjmccreary

Right, but people talk as if there going to be one big dump on the market at one time. It doesn’t happen that way.


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No, but in a normal market it would limit price increases. For instance, there are already 3x as many Zions as Trouts (using base) with many more to come.

[tcdyess]

Originally Posted by cjmccreary

Right, but people talk as if there going to be one big dump on the market at one time. It doesn’t happen that way.


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My point is that is an insane number and only going higher.... Lebron Topps RC PSA 10 has a pop 1,838..... Kobe Topps RC PSA 10 has a pop of 2624... Zion Prizm will be over 20k.... is it just me?

[discodanman45]

Originally Posted by cjmccreary

Don’t understand why people say that 15,000 PSA 10s are going hit the market at the same time while blaming PSA backlog as the reason. Isn’t the backlog the very reason they won’t?


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I am not calling for the end of the world, but as PSA catches up many of the modern cards graded in heavy quantities will continue to decrease in price unless there is a huge influx of new collectors. Very simple supply and demand. This has already been shown on a smaller scale with Shaquille O'Neal rookie cards. Prices went up because of lack of PSA graded supply. As people received their 200 graded Shaq rookie, the supply was too much for the collector community to handle. I still think the vintage football / basketball / hockey has some room to grow, but that all depends on the desire of modern collectors to dabble in "vintage."

[pokerkeith]

I agree not having the pack to open and owning digital property for a card to me is the dumbest thing ever. I get bitcoin is a thing but i want the ability to open a pack and chase the card i hope to pull. imo while there is going to be some decline eventually the reality is the production has not been upped. I do think the flipping wont end any time soon but it is going to be hard to make a living doing it when you are at your target with 9 other people and only 6 prizm boxes appear and 9 people only fair thing to do is rock papor scissors or a raffle.

Also I am surprised panini never hired more people to increase production for 2020 releases back in june. Like why not take some company profits and hire more people to increase production?

As for the wealthy who have gotten back into the hobby some will leave but some see the prices of 2017 mahomes cards and 2011 trout and 2003 lebron cards and luka 2018 and want to get in on the ground floor guessing who the next big thing will be.

I also think blasters in 2021 especially prizm and optic might come with a higher srp so panini makes the money and not the scalpers.

[asujbl]

Is this where we bump the thread from 4 years ago that said LeBron Chrome, Brady Chrome, and Trout Update could never survive as $1,000 cards?

Those were good times.

[Zauron]

In terms of retail wax flipping, I think it might not be as bad next year as it is now. I could be wrong, but the minute people can't buyout 20 blasters and resell them for double, they are out of the game. Baseball I think is slowly getting back to being available. People realizing baseball isn't that profitable compared to football and basketball.

I still am not holding out any hope of being able to find football and basketball though. I found a hanger of Rookies and Stars and was so excited lol.

[IndianaCards]

Remember when Covid mania first kicked off and everyone started wearing masks, and there were predictions it would end in a month, 3 months, 6...and then more predictions, and more...etc, you get the idea. Let me blow y'alls minds real quick: What if this is the new normal?

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[majestik101]

I hope it's the new normal. I want to see rock paper scissors fights in the card aisle at the local Target.

[IndianaCards]

Originally Posted by majestik101

I hope it's the new normal. I want to see rock paper scissors fights in the card aisle at the local Target.

You're one up on me then, I can't even get there in time to see that! Lol by the time I get there it's like a scene from an old western/zombie flick, tumbleweeds blowing thru and display cases thrown all over the place like the Armageddon took place. I hold out hope....that one day, I'm gonna get a hanger. Maybe, even a blaster.

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[2010GBPackers]

Originally Posted by asujbl

Is this where we bump the thread from 4 years ago that said LeBron Chrome, Brady Chrome, and Trout Update could never survive as $1,000 cards?

Those were good times.

I think everyone learned their lesson on that sector of the hobby. And to be fair, you could go back to every year since 2003 (Lebron's rookie year) and people were predicting a demise that never came to fruition. That much is true.

I think the point the OP was making was, how many of these flippers/hustlers can eat the losses of buying DeAndre Ayton Prizms at $500/each thinking he's going to "break out" with the Suns this year, lose $100 on each and sell them to another speculator for $400, who loses another $100 because Ayton will never amount to anything much hobby-wise, etc. etc. That's the majority of the "hobby" at this point, unfortunately.

In reality, there's approx. 0.1% of cards in the hobby that are worth holding on to and whose value can still very much rise.

The rest of it gets treated like a hot girlfriend, but gets passed around like a hooker to guys who are hoping they're not the one going to catch the STD.

[Marino]

This is pretty much following the crypto boom a few years ago. Once everyone and their grandmother starts investing into something, you know the end is near.

[asujbl]

Originally Posted by 2010GBPackers

I think everyone learned their lesson on that sector of the hobby. And to be fair, you could go back to every year since 2003 (Lebron's rookie year) and people were predicting a demise that never came to fruition. That much is true.

I think the point the OP was making was, how many of these flippers/hustlers can eat the losses of buying Andre Ayton Prizms at $500/each thinking he's going to "break out" with the Suns this year, lose $100 on each and sell them to another speculator for $400, who loses another $100 because Ayton will never amount to anything much hobby-wise, etc. etc. That's the majority of the "hobby" at this point, unfortunately.

In reality, there's approx. 0.1% of cards in the hobby that are worth holding on to and whose value can still very much rise.

The rest of it gets treated like a hot girlfriend, but gets passed around like a hooker to guys who are hoping they're not the one going to catch the STD.

Or... the same group of people don't care if Ayton isn't a hobby star and they keep passing them around at $500

That's more likely to happen the "end of flippers"

[Yikes]

The only thing that will reverse this trend is the oversaturation of products which was already mentioned in this thread.

If Panini continues to print at this rate there is a point where the demand will not keep up. The only thing that is keeping the gears turning is the marketing and publicity of cards being sold for high dollars. As long as there is media/social media hyping up the card market, the demand will remain...to a point.

That is the difference in this market compared to the one in the 90’s. Back then you did not have social media and the internet keeping this hobby afloat with the influx of news and hype.

The only ones making bank is the card and grading companies.

[go_steelers07]

Originally Posted by Gradek

Second, as I stated above, dramatically increased production (ie supply) is likely coming and you have no control over that.

How many printer shops are available to Topps & Panini? Do they use the same ones..?.. do they have exclusive ones..?..

How long does it take to do a print run for Prizm BKB or Topps S1? Or any other release?

I don’t think an assumption for dramatically increased print runs can be made without knowing answers to the above questions.

[Zauron]

Originally Posted by pokerkeith

I agree not having the pack to open and owning digital property for a card to me is the dumbest thing ever. I get bitcoin is a thing but i want the ability to open a pack and chase the card i hope to pull. imo while there is going to be some decline eventually the reality is the production has not been upped. I do think the flipping wont end any time soon but it is going to be hard to make a living doing it when you are at your target with 9 other people and only 6 prizm boxes appear and 9 people only fair thing to do is rock papor scissors or a raffle.

Also I am surprised panini never hired more people to increase production for 2020 releases back in june. Like why not take some company profits and hire more people to increase production?

As for the wealthy who have gotten back into the hobby some will leave but some see the prices of 2017 mahomes cards and 2011 trout and 2003 lebron cards and luka 2018 and want to get in on the ground floor guessing who the next big thing will be.

I also think blasters in 2021 especially prizm and optic might come with a higher srp so panini makes the money and not the scalpers.

Man prices were starting to get way too high. Drew Lock Prizm PSA 10's were $300 weren't they at one point? Everybody trying to pick the next big thing and crash when they miss.

[heatdawg]

I kept reading waiting for real information on why the end of flippers is near? But that information never came, I feel like I am watching a CNN headline.

[49erRCCollector]

Originally Posted by asujbl

Is this where we bump the thread from 4 years ago that said LeBron Chrome, Brady Chrome, and Trout Update could never survive as $1,000 cards?

Those were good times.

Those cards are living in a rarified space though.

People fighting at Target, maybe less likely to sustain. Feels very Beanie Babies to me.

I could be wrong though.

[49erRCCollector]

Originally Posted by cjmccreary

Right, but people talk as if there going to be one big dump on the market at one time. It doesn’t happen that way.


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It might. If 2020 Prizm Herberts are getting shuffled off to PSA en masse, based on submission rates, we likely see a lot of 10s just "out there" all at once.

It hasn't happened that way, seems like it could.

[Miguels]

Originally Posted by Gradek

The whole sports card flipping grind is nearing its end and will likely be virtually gone by summer (and yes, I am aware there are always flippers to some extent). This “grind/hustle” still follows basic business/economic realities and effectively requires relatively minimal participation for it to work, thus the very crowded trade that we now have will ultimately spell its demise. The following 3 factors are all lining up to end the flip by next year:

1) as stated above, this is a very crowded trade. When it is one guy waiting at target the flip works, when it is 8 it doesn’t. And this also applies to rookie singles, when a few people are trying to flip the hot rookie it works, when everyone bids all rookies up at the beginning of the season everyone loses.

2) increased supply. I will guarantee that Topps/Panini dramatically increase production next year. Companies absolutely hate when other people make more money than they do on a retail product and thus they will almost assuredly increase supple to more accurately meet demand. When this happens, the ability to flip (whether wax or singles) will face increasing margin contractions, further reducing profits for flippers.

3) end of COVID-19. The reality is that a lot of money has come into our hobby this year that used to go towards other entertainment options and that the bulk of this money is going to leave with the end of a COVID-19. This means less dollars/people chasing product (a product that likely has a higher supply), thus reducing pricing pressure and the ability to “flip”.

At the end of the day, I have no real problem with people trying to make a quick buck, but the reality of the market is that the ease of making those quick bucks is likely ending very soon.

I’ll take this.










Just kidding. Hard Pass

[blevins26]

Originally Posted by Gradek

The whole sports card flipping grind is nearing its end and will likely be virtually gone by summer (and yes, I am aware there are always flippers to some extent). This “grind/hustle” still follows basic business/economic realities and effectively requires relatively minimal participation for it to work, thus the very crowded trade that we now have will ultimately spell its demise. The following 3 factors are all lining up to end the flip by next year:

1) as stated above, this is a very crowded trade. When it is one guy waiting at target the flip works, when it is 8 it doesn’t. And this also applies to rookie singles, when a few people are trying to flip the hot rookie it works, when everyone bids all rookies up at the beginning of the season everyone loses.

2) increased supply. I will guarantee that Topps/Panini dramatically increase production next year. Companies absolutely hate when other people make more money than they do on a retail product and thus they will almost assuredly increase supple to more accurately meet demand. When this happens, the ability to flip (whether wax or singles) will face increasing margin contractions, further reducing profits for flippers.

3) end of COVID-19. The reality is that a lot of money has come into our hobby this year that used to go towards other entertainment options and that the bulk of this money is going to leave with the end of a COVID-19. This means less dollars/people chasing product (a product that likely has a higher supply), thus reducing pricing pressure and the ability to “flip”.

At the end of the day, I have no real problem with people trying to make a quick buck, but the reality of the market is that the ease of making those quick bucks is likely ending very soon.

To address each of the 3 points:

1. The "retail flip" is probably the safest flip of them all right now because retail is still priced at retail and people can't get their hands on as much as they want. It's safe, IMO, for at least the 2020 product cycle.

2. I agree that supply will ramp up next year. Look at what Panini did with FOTL. They saw people crowding in the door to buy FOTL and then flipping for crazy markup. They haven't ended that but they've take a lot more of that money for themselves with the Dutch Auction format. They'll see the retail mania this year and act accordingly.

3. This is 100% on point. For those of us lucky to not be struggling to survive in 2020, I think people are realizing just how much of their money was going to travel, restaurants, bars, etc. It's insane. By mid-2021, even if Covid isn't officially over, people will be planning for their fall/winter 2021 travel. By the end of 2021, travel & entertainment will, at best for this hobby, be back to normal. At worse, people will YOLO on travel and suck major money out of the hobby.

I think we have 6-12 months left of this boom market, at best, before a major correction. The easy money has already been made. Buying a hobby of Prizm at $1000 to flip either the wax or cards for more is not my definition of easy money.

[mike1498]

Originally Posted by heatdawg

I kept reading waiting for real information on why the end of flippers is near? But that information never came, I feel like I am watching a CNN headline.

Same reason Patrick Mahomes has an injured throwing arm

[patchgenie]

all cards go UP

[actionbryan]

I hope it never ends. 2000-2015 was nothing but depressed people complaining about how no one buys cards anymore.

Now in 2020 everyone buys cards but everyone is still complaining.

So the moral of the story is you are all terrible, miserable human beings. Doesn't matter the state of hobby.

[49erRCCollector]

Originally Posted by actionbryan

I hope it never ends. 2000-2015 was nothing but depressed people complaining about how no one buys cards anymore.

Now in 2020 everyone buys cards but everyone is still complaining.

So the moral of the story is you are all terrible, miserable human beings. Doesn't matter the state of hobby.

Wow. All of that is true.

To be fair I'll collect no matter what. Don't make no difference to me. Everything I want, I have.