2020 Bowman Draft - 40 Case (20 Jumbo / 20 Super Jumbo) - Pick your Player! ROUND #2!

[ClarenceWorley]

I'll reclaim:
BDC-46 Freddy Zamora Brewers $145
BDC-113 Trevor Hauver Yankees $140
After the super pull(thanks again for that) have to work on the rainbow!

Releasing:
BDC-90 Nick Garcia Pirates

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[Iiicalypso]

I'll reclaim:

BDC-39 Robert Hassell & variations San Diego Padres $1,184

International, please, and thanks a lot!

[excel_b]

CDA-CB Carter Baumler Baltimore Orioles - excel_b
CDA-JF Justin Foscue Texas Rangers - excel_b
CDA-RHA Robert Hassell San Diego Padres - excel_b
CDA-TSA Thomas Saggese Texas Rangers - excel_b

RECLAIMED them...

[Nung2019]

Dave,

If the price increase of cases does effect this break, I think I might speak for most. I think in order to get filled most would be okay with 38-39 cases instead of no break at all. If worst comes to worst.

[TmcK145]

I'll reclaim the following:
CDA-BE Bryce Elder Atlanta Braves $139 - TmcK145
CDA-CP Connor Phillips Seattle Mariners $169 - TmcK145
CDA-TB Tanner Burns Cleveland Indians $262 - TmcK145
CDA-TBR Tyler Brown Houston Astros $185 - TmcK145

Releasing:
BDC-138 Trent Palmer Toronto Blue Jays

[jamcas997]

Originally Posted by Nung2019

Dave,

If the price increase of cases does effect this break, I think I might speak for most. I think in order to get filled most would be okay with 38-39 cases instead of no break at all. If worst comes to worst.

I just dont see prices getting crazy on this as more people are understanding the 118 Autos in this product and their chances of the huge hit have been cut down. Maybe fewer SUPER Jumbos with more jumbos would be the way to go rather than cutting cases.

[pcarlson05]

Reclaiming the Crow-Armstrong auto spot. Going to release the Hendrick chrome spot

[baseballbunez]

Originally Posted by jamcas997

I just dont see prices getting crazy on this as more people are understanding the 118 Autos in this product and their chances of the huge hit have been cut down. Maybe fewer SUPER Jumbos with more jumbos would be the way to go rather than cutting cases.

Well of course you'd only want jumbos, you have a spot that only gets hit in jumbo lol. That just doesn't make sense for literally 95% of the people in the break.

Jumbo cases are only $200 cheaper than Super Jumbos at this point, yet have double the chrome + chrome refractors and of course 25% more autographs. If the SJ's get cut, the auto spots wouldn't pay the same (I know I personally wouldn't), and the auto spots carry the load on these. IMO, we cut jumbos entirely and run as a 40 case SJ break. Dave can bump the prices 10-12% across the board and let spot holders decide if they want it at the upcharge, and then have some room to drop if people pass.

[rysportguy]

Originally Posted by jamcas997

I just dont see prices getting crazy on this as more people are understanding the 118 Autos in this product and their chances of the huge hit have been cut down. Maybe fewer SUPER Jumbos with more jumbos would be the way to go rather than cutting cases.

Unfortunately it's not necessarily a wide spread increase but blowout themselves have increased jumbos quite a bit. Currently selling Jumbos at $370
which is rough when other sites are selling them for $340 and some as low as $300. But Blowout has the quantity to supply that others don't.

[Diem926]

Reclaiming CDA-DF Daxton Fulton Miami Marlins $204

[Nung2019]

Originally Posted by baseballbunez

Well of course you'd only want jumbos, you have a spot that only gets hit in jumbo lol. That just doesn't make sense for literally 95% of the people in the break.

Jumbo cases are only $200 cheaper than Super Jumbos at this point, yet have double the chrome + chrome refractors and of course 25% more autographs. If the SJ's get cut, the auto spots wouldn't pay the same (I know I personally wouldn't), and the auto spots carry the load on these. IMO, we cut jumbos entirely and run as a 40 case SJ break. Dave can bump the prices 10-12% across the board and let spot holders decide if they want it at the upcharge, and then have some room to drop if people pass.

I think that would be tough having no orange or black autos in the break.. not a bad thought though

[marterburn]

Originally Posted by baseballbunez

Well of course you'd only want jumbos, you have a spot that only gets hit in jumbo lol. That just doesn't make sense for literally 95% of the people in the break.

Jumbo cases are only $200 cheaper than Super Jumbos at this point, yet have double the chrome + chrome refractors and of course 25% more autographs. If the SJ's get cut, the auto spots wouldn't pay the same (I know I personally wouldn't), and the auto spots carry the load on these. IMO, we cut jumbos entirely and run as a 40 case SJ break. Dave can bump the prices 10-12% across the board and let spot holders decide if they want it at the upcharge, and then have some room to drop if people pass.

It also hurts Chrome spots with no Sky Blue refractors. Chance of getting a parallel in a single Chrome spot drops by about 40%

Lots more base & ref, lots less color. With no jumbo at all the balance would be lost.

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[dthimesch]

We will keep plugging away and see what happens.

You guys have been amazing on the reclaims so this far!! Let’s keep that up

[baseballbunez]

Originally Posted by Nung2019

I think that would be tough having no orange or black autos in the break.. not a bad thought though

Oh 100%, but the EV on the other color hits shift that. In last 41, 8 orange autos and 32 blacks were hit, so just under 1 black or orange per case averaged out. But average jumbo case had ~10 purple or better whereas each SJ had ~14 purple or better auto hits. So you lose the chance at black/orange, but (should) have 80 additional purple or better auto hits versus the standard 20 jumbo/20 super jumbo split. Not sure what the expected value change is there, but it's an interesting balance.

[GardnerMotors]

Originally Posted by rysportguy

Unfortunately it's not necessarily a wide spread increase but blowout themselves have increased jumbos quite a bit. Currently selling Jumbos at $370
which is rough when other sites are selling them for $340 and some as low as $300. But Blowout has the quantity to supply that others don't.

They jacked up their prices after Topps sold out of their 309 a box supply.. SHAME ON THEM cause you know they didnt pay more for them... Oh well as long as we keep paying the price the more they will keep jacking up the price.

[baseballbunez]

Originally Posted by marterburn

It also hurts Chrome spots with no Sky Blue refractors. Chance of getting a parallel in a single Chrome spot drops by about 40%

Lots more base & ref, lots less color. With no jumbo at all the balance would be lost.

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I'm not fully in there with the #s on the base chrome spots, but shouldn't each chrome spot average out just over 1 sky blue on the 20 cases of jumbos? Whereas 20 more SJ would average out each chrome spot ~30 additional chromes and 4 or 5 additional refractors? Not to mention the increased chance at actual color, since SJ seems to be producing ~2 more color refractors per case.

Will stop derailing claims after this, didn't mean to clutter the thread. Sorry Dave!

[55clemente]

Reclaim:

CDA-JN Jordan Nwogu Chicago Cubs $624

Thanks, Dave!

[rysportguy]

Originally Posted by baseballbunez

I'm not fully in there with the #s on the base chrome spots, but shouldn't each chrome spot average out just over 1 sky blue on the 20 cases of jumbos? Whereas 20 more SJ would average out each chrome spot ~30 additional chromes and 4 or 5 additional refractors? Not to mention the increased chance at actual color, since SJ seems to be producing ~2 more color refractors per case.

Will stop derailing claims after this, didn't mean to clutter the thread. Sorry Dave!

Yeah your numbers are pretty close to accurate. I think the 30 extra chrome and 4 extra refractors easily makes up for the sky blue loss. Looking at all of the numbers from the 40 case closer I actually do kinda agree with the super jumbos being better value which is kinda ironic cause I was the one to originally suggest going all jumbos.

I think obviously the best move is to keep it the same though just for simplicity reasons. Last thing we want to do is hike prices up 10% and also eliminate some of the spots that are jumbo only spots.

Also will just add that this is in terms of auto spots. For chrome spots jumbo vs super jumbo is close to a wash because the extra 30 chrome and 4 refractors is balanced by the loss of orange and sky blue and amount of chrome color is close to even for jumbo vs super jumbo

EDIT: Interesting stat to add. It looks like they packed Super jumbos with Golds. In our 41 cases there was 42 gold autos. 40 of them came from super jumbo!

Also 80% of the green autos came from Super Jumbo

Done derailing the thread as well, definitely interesting though

[doobypenguin]

Originally Posted by baseballbunez

Well of course you'd only want jumbos, you have a spot that only gets hit in jumbo lol. That just doesn't make sense for literally 95% of the people in the break.

which autos are only jumbo? asking for a friend...

[BALxORIOLESx]

Reclaim:

BDC-117 Carter Baumler Baltimore Orioles $125

[kiddrock32]

Originally Posted by rysportguy

Yeah your numbers are pretty close to accurate. I think the 30 extra chrome and 4 extra refractors easily makes up for the sky blue loss. Looking at all of the numbers from the 40 case closer I actually do kinda agree with the super jumbos being better value which is kinda ironic cause I was the one to originally suggest going all jumbos.

I think obviously the best move is to keep it the same though just for simplicity reasons. Last thing we want to do is hike prices up 10% and also eliminate some of the spots that are jumbo only spots.

Also will just add that this is in terms of auto spots. For chrome spots jumbo vs super jumbo is close to a wash because the extra 30 chrome and 4 refractors is balanced by the loss of orange and sky blue and amount of chrome color is close to even for jumbo vs super jumbo

EDIT: Interesting stat to add. It looks like they packed Super jumbos with Golds. In our 41 cases there was 42 gold autos. 40 of them came from super jumbo!

Also 80% of the green autos came from Super Jumbo

Done derailing the thread as well, definitely interesting though

Those are interesting stats, I'll just one more thought. I think what makes SJ more value this year is the higher number of autos on the checklist but reduced base autos. In years past you'd typically get about one color auto in each box and the other 4 autos in SJ were just base. With more color this year, it seems over half the autos are color therefore more autos is more value. No orange stinks though as that's my favorite refractor

[marterburn]

Originally Posted by baseballbunez

I'm not fully in there with the #s on the base chrome spots, but shouldn't each chrome spot average out just over 1 sky blue on the 20 cases of jumbos? Whereas 20 more SJ would average out each chrome spot ~30 additional chromes and 4 or 5 additional refractors? Not to mention the increased chance at actual color, since SJ seems to be producing ~2 more color refractors per case.

Will stop derailing claims after this, didn't mean to clutter the thread. Sorry Dave!

Your points are true, but so are mine. Jumbo hits ~26 Chrome parallels, while SJ is ~16.5 Chrome parallels per case. Across 40, that makes all SJ expected parallels at ~3.3, where split is ~4.25. It's not a gigantic difference but it cuts the deviation to 0 by quite a bit.

Trust me I completely understand the value is in the base Chrome/refractors. But the greater chance for the ONE.BIG.SCORE is part of what makes this fun.

This is just a presentation of the other side. Just purely VALUE wise, I do not have an argument against SJ.

Also, sorry Dave

[baseballbunez]

Originally Posted by doobypenguin

which autos are only jumbo? asking for a friend...

Insider info, but orange paper. But be careful don't share that info just anywhere now. That's the spot I was commenting on, after all

[stryk]

Will reclaim this one for sure. Debating on the others right now.

BDC-74 Bryce Bonnin Cincinnati Reds $37

[dthimesch]

OP Updated to here. Thank you everyone.