100 Case 2020 Bowman Draft PYP Pick Your Player (w/50 Case option)

[pcarlson05]

Originally Posted by AMAZIN COLLECT

Scratch the average....

1 for the last 20 cases (Refractor Auto Crow-Armstrong)

I think I jinxed myself

Can only hope to finish strong

In these breaks you gotta be prepared for runs, both good and bad. In Dave’s 41 caser, I had 4 PCA autos in 40 cases. Got 3 in case 41, including two gold. It’s just the nature of the game.

[AMAZIN COLLECT]

Originally Posted by pcarlson05

In these breaks you gotta be prepared for runs, both good and bad. In Dave’s 41 caser, I had 4 PCA autos in 40 cases. Got 3 in case 41, including two gold. It’s just the nature of the game.

I saw that, that was insane!!! Congrats!
I'm ready for the run. I could only afford him in the first 50, so running short on time to right the ship.

[Sarcaster]

Updated through 36 cases: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets...KzCHWbOxQ9hFBw

Who do you guys think are going to be the winners of the first 54 cases?

Since we're sort of nearing the end of the first 54 cases, some fun facts....

Class of 2020 spot is no longer averaging 1 per case! 34 autos in 36 cases. This spot was $1241, so at an average of $36.50 per auto and 18 cases left, I have to imagine this spot is a winner.

Adisyn Coffey is at 17 autos, but his best color 1 green.
Zach DeLoach is right behind Coffey with 16 autos, his best color being an orange.
Jackson Miller also has 16 autos; his best color is a black.
Logan Hofmann (my spot!) and Kyle Nicolas both have 15 autos; Hofmann has a gold wave as his best, Nicolas has a black.

The 3 players named Bryce (Bonnin, Elder, and Jarvis) combine for 21 total autos - just 4 more than Coffey and their best color is only sparkle - 2 for Jarvis, 1 for Bonnin.

The 3 auto spots that were split up by case would be doing fairly well as solo spots right now:
Spencer Torkelson - 1 gold wave, 1 blue wave, 2 purple, 2 refractor, 1 base
Robert Hassell - 1 blue, 2 blue wave, 1 purple, 2 refractor, 4 base
Nick Gonzales - 2 blue, 1 blue wave, 2 purple, 4 refractor, 2 base
Hopefully we see some better color for these 3 though!

Ben Hernandez only has 2 autos - a refractor and a purple.
Connor Phillips only has 1 auto - at least it's a sparkle!
Ian Bedell only has 1 auto AND it's a base...
Werner Blakely only has 1 auto - a refractor, though it took like 30 cases or something crazy to hit that first auto!

[doobypenguin]

Originally Posted by Sarcaster

Ian Bedell only has 1 auto AND it's a base...

thanks for tracking...and ouch. that puts me on track for 400 bucks for 3 autos at this rate haha. Let's hope he appears in the later other two-thirds of the cases!

[pcarlson05]

Originally Posted by AMAZIN COLLECT

I saw that, that was insane!!! Congrats!
I'm ready for the run. I could only afford him in the first 50, so running short on time to right the ship.

I think your ship was righted a good deal last night. Congrats!

[BCA-Jim]

Originally Posted by AMAZIN COLLECT

I saw that, that was insane!!! Congrats!
I'm ready for the run. I could only afford him in the first 50, so running short on time to right the ship.

Pretty sure you hit Back-2-Back True Blue Refractor Autos of PCA. Congrats!

Meanwhile I'm only at 3 Jordan Walker Autos through 38 Cases.

Can we all think some good thoughts toward Jordan Walker??? I realize the guy doesn't have any refractors (now...not when I bought of course) and that he has short printed base autos (now...once again, not when I bought), but he has all the other parallels that I can tell. So any one of these gorgeous Blue, Gold, Red, Orange, Black, etc could be Jordan...help a brother out!

[conwaywest]

My no auto streak ended at 20 cases with the purple Klein auto pulled in case 38! Let’s go!


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[AMAZIN COLLECT]

Originally Posted by pcarlson05

I think your ship was righted a good deal last night. Congrats!

On course! Thank You

[AMAZIN COLLECT]

Originally Posted by BCA-Jim

Pretty sure you hit Back-2-Back True Blue Refractor Autos of PCA. Congrats!

Meanwhile I'm only at 3 Jordan Walker Autos through 38 Cases.

Can we all think some good thoughts toward Jordan Walker??? I realize the guy doesn't have any refractors (now...not when I bought of course) and that he has short printed base autos (now...once again, not when I bought), but he has all the other parallels that I can tell. So any one of these gorgeous Blue, Gold, Red, Orange, Black, etc could be Jordan...help a brother out!

2 for 3 cases. Blue & Blue Wave Autos.
Before those 2 autos I snapped 1 for 22 case streak!

May the mojo gods take pitty and reward you with a red refractor team colors!

[pcarlson05]

Originally Posted by BCA-Jim

Pretty sure you hit Back-2-Back True Blue Refractor Autos of PCA. Congrats!

Meanwhile I'm only at 3 Jordan Walker Autos through 38 Cases.

Can we all think some good thoughts toward Jordan Walker??? I realize the guy doesn't have any refractors (now...not when I bought of course) and that he has short printed base autos (now...once again, not when I bought), but he has all the other parallels that I can tell. So any one of these gorgeous Blue, Gold, Red, Orange, Black, etc could be Jordan...help a brother out!

Here’s to a gold auto, good thoughts sent.

[AMAZIN COLLECT]

Originally Posted by conwaywest

My no auto streak ended at 20 cases with the purple Klein auto pulled in case 38! Let’s go!


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

I had my 1 for 22 streak broken with a 2 for 3.
I hope the same for you, good luck!

[ShadeTree]

Originally Posted by BCA-Jim

Pretty sure you hit Back-2-Back True Blue Refractor Autos of PCA. Congrats!

Meanwhile I'm only at 3 Jordan Walker Autos through 38 Cases.

Can we all think some good thoughts toward Jordan Walker??? I realize the guy doesn't have any refractors (now...not when I bought of course) and that he has short printed base autos (now...once again, not when I bought), but he has all the other parallels that I can tell. So any one of these gorgeous Blue, Gold, Red, Orange, Black, etc could be Jordan...help a brother out!

You did better than me if that makes you feel any better , I had Jordan in Dave’s 41 caser and only hit 2 autos, green and Blue Wave. You got a base which sells for more than some of his color autos FYI!

Good luck 🍀

[Sarcaster]

We are up-to-date through 42 cases!
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets...KzCHWbOxQ9hFBw

We have a few ties at the top for auto count so far!

With 18....
Adisyn Coffey
Jackson Miller
Kyle Nicolas

With 17...
Jordan Nwogu
Logan Hofmann
Zach DeLoach
Zavier Warren

With 16...
Sammy Infante

With 15...
Casey Schmitt
Clayton Beeter
Evan Carter
Petey Halpin


The Class of 2020 Auto spot is BACK ON TOP! 1 per case once again! 42 autos through 42 cases. 7 golds!

The Under Armour spot has a couple autos now! Hooray! Drew Romo and Ed Howard!

Unfortunately we still have a few spots lacking severely....but we've got 12 cases to go for this half of the 108 caser!
Werner Blakely....1 refractor, 1 purple
Slade Cecconi....2 refractor, 1 blue
Jordan Walker....1 base, 1 purple, 1 blue
Ian Bedell....1 base
Connor Phillips....1 refractor, 1 black, 1 sparkle (at least he has good color!)
Ben Hernandez....1 refractor, 2 purple

Please keep in mind I very well could've made a mistake or missed an auto somewhere. Just wanted to throw that out there!

[TheFreight]

Hey everyone, new here, is there a good primer on how the breaks work? I'm just trying to understand some basic math.

Like, 100 cases, 50 jumbo cases x 8 boxes per case x3 autos per box + 50 super jumbo x 6 boxes per case x5 autos per box = 2700 autos for the CDAs. There's 118 prospect autos (CDAs) in the set, so on average (I know this can vary wildly), you'd get 2700/118=22.9 of the player you purchased. Is that right? Thanks in advance.

[rysportguy]

Originally Posted by TheFreight

Hey everyone, new here, is there a good primer on how the breaks work? I'm just trying to understand some basic math.

Like, 100 cases, 50 jumbo x3 autos + 50 super jumbo x5 autos = 400 autos for the CDAs. There's 118 prospect autos (CDAs) in the set, so on average (I know this can vary wildly), you'd get 400/118=3.4 of the player you purchased. Is that right? Thanks in advance.

You are on the right track but it's 100 cases not 100 boxes. A jumbo case has 8 jumbo boxes so it is 24 autos. A super jumbo case has 6 super jumbo boxes so it is 30 autos.

So without including the bonus 8 cases that we got you could expect 2,700 autos (1,200 jumbo autos + 1,500 super jumbo autos)

23 autos per a spot on average (2700/118)

[Sarcaster]

Originally Posted by TheFreight

Hey everyone, new here, is there a good primer on how the breaks work? I'm just trying to understand some basic math.

Like, 100 cases, 50 jumbo x3 autos + 50 super jumbo x5 autos = 400 autos for the CDAs. There's 118 prospect autos (CDAs) in the set, so on average (I know this can vary wildly), you'd get 400/118=3.4 of the player you purchased. Is that right? Thanks in advance.

If it were 100 cases (this was increased to 108), it would be 50 jumbo and 50 super jumbo.
A jumbo case has 8 jumbo boxes in it, a super jumbo case has 6 super jumbo boxes in it. So each jumbo case has 24 autos in it, and each super jumbo case has 30 autos in it.
Totaling that up that's 2,700 total autos. Divided evenly among 118 auto checklist (that's only player autos, not insert autos I believe), that's an average of about 22 autos per player.

[TheFreight]

Originally Posted by Sarcaster

If it were 100 cases (this was increased to 108), it would be 50 jumbo and 50 super jumbo.
A jumbo case has 8 jumbo boxes in it, a super jumbo case has 6 super jumbo boxes in it. So each jumbo case has 24 autos in it, and each super jumbo case has 30 autos in it.
Totaling that up that's 2,700 total autos. Divided evenly among 118 auto checklist (that's only player autos, not insert autos I believe), that's an average of about 22 autos per player.

Thanks, I messed up the case vs. box part initially and corrected it. I also wasn't sure if 118 was the right denominator or if other cards could be part of the guaranteed prospect autos. If it's just the 118 CDAs, then that's easy to see. Inserts or other autos wouldn't be part of the guarantees right?

[Sarcaster]

Originally Posted by TheFreight

Thanks, I messed up the case vs. box part initially and corrected it. I also wasn't sure if 118 was the right denominator or if other cards could be part of the guaranteed prospect autos. If it's just the 118 CDAs, then that's easy to see. Inserts or other autos wouldn't be part of the guarantees right?

The guarantee from Topps is 3 autos per jumbo box or 5 per super jumbo, but that auto guarantee includes insert autos and CDAs. So 118 isn't a perfect number to use, but it gives a decent estimate.

[rysportguy]

Originally Posted by TheFreight

Thanks, I messed up the case vs. box part initially and corrected it. I also wasn't sure if 118 was the right denominator or if other cards could be part of the guaranteed prospect autos. If it's just the 118 CDAs, then that's easy to see. Inserts or other autos wouldn't be part of the guarantees right?

Insert and Autos are part of the guarantee but they are a small amount of the autos. I would probably round the estimate down to 22 per a player to account for that.

[RealDocStrange]

I know we hit at least one black 1/1 paper recently and a printing plate or two (non auto), but have we hit any superfactor non-auto?

No auto supers yet and I don't think any non-auto superfractor through 42 cases, I'd think that's way behind the average curve.

[RamRod]

Originally Posted by Sarcaster

Unfortunately we still have a few spots lacking severely....but we've got 12 cases to go for this half of the 108 caser!
Werner Blakely....1 refractor, 1 purple
Slade Cecconi....2 refractor, 1 blue
Jordan Walker....1 base, 1 purple, 1 blue
Ian Bedell....1 base
Connor Phillips....1 refractor, 1 black, 1 sparkle (at least he has good color!)
Ben Hernandez....1 refractor, 2 purple

I had Blakely in the 20 caser and I think I hit 3 auto's. I'm now convinced that Houdini not liking his auto (for the record it's not a great auto) has put a hex on pulling his auto! Just kidding, hopefully it gets a lot better for whoever has it now!

I find it interesting how peoples auto's have changed over the years. 50 years ago you could get an auto and know exactly who it was because you could read every letter in the auto. Now these kids just put scribbles and lines and call it an auto. Luis Robert has an awful auto in my opinion. Bayron Lora has a very unique "auto" right now, and I wonder if it will drastically change in a year or 2. If it does it could make his unique "auto" even more valuable.

Thanks again sarcaster for keeping the numbers!

[tyrith]

IMO I think a lot of the old school autos are boring. I'd rather the autos be more idiosyncratic as long as they are visually interesting - not concerned about legibility at all.

My spot in the first 50 is Tyler Brown, who has a lazy-ish two letter auto, but he knows how to use the full space and add some flourishes, so I actually like it. (Helps that it looks similar to the auto of Dallas Stars captain Jamie Benn, another player I have some autos for.) But if he was like Patrick Bailey, or Blakely to a lesser degree, and left a ton of white space on the card, the auto would look terrible.

White space is the enemy on most modern autos - the auto needs to fit the scale of the card. Unless you're Zac Veen - that auto is poop however you slice it.

[RamRod]

Definitely not a fan of Veen's auto

[crpav]

I am right at a satisfied but still would like more and a bit I underwhelmed with my crochet spot. 7 autos I am happy with. 1 base, 1 refractor, 1 blue, 2 purple and 2 green however since in the 20 I only hit 1 purple I hope to hit more. Hoping for a black at the very least as looks so nice with his photo.

[TheFreight]

Originally Posted by Sarcaster

The guarantee from Topps is 3 autos per jumbo box or 5 per super jumbo, but that auto guarantee includes insert autos and CDAs. So 118 isn't a perfect number to use, but it gives a decent estimate.

Thanks, that's super helpful.

One last Q. The base Autos aren't numbered like the others, but do we know what the population of them is? Any estimates or rough guesses if they haven't said? Not sure if that's like 1,000 or 10,000 or 50,000?