First Buzz: 2021 Topps Series 1 baseball cards + SPs

[notoriousrmb]

Originally Posted by hochunk5

Incorrect. Reason for these prices is the shift from selling to collectors and individuals to a large qty of breakers who will buy quantity no matter what and just pass the increased prices to each break spot.

Prices keep raising thats ok raise the slot price. Slot price becomes too high -thats ok dont break a whole case break 4 boxes. That becomes too high just do one box(looking at you panini football/basketball). And cant blame card companies. Its a reliable source of stead sales at a higher price.

Singles is literally the only way to go because all of the people overspending in these breaks rarely hit big and then need to sell off the mediocre junk they did hit to fund their next break. The big rookies are priced high but good for them. If getting cards increases so should the cards that people actually want.

Point of the story buy singles


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Incorrect. Why do you think people still buy at higher prices? It's because they think they can still pay for raw cards, grade and have new meat on the bone.

Breakers are a way for people to get the product, just like this website and other online sellers are. Breakers don't cause the high prices, people who willingly pay these high prices are the reason. And why do people pay high prices?

I agree singles are the best value in theory, but for the flippers who are driving these costs up, raw singles are not going to grade PSA 10 (in their minds). They want pack fresh cards to grade and flip.

The other part of the equation is the FOMO...collectors who will pay any price because they have disposable income and still want to play the game.

[hochunk5]

Originally Posted by notoriousrmb

Incorrect. Why do you think people still buy at higher prices? It's because they think they can still pay for raw cards, grade and have new meat on the bone.

Breakers are a way for people to get the product, just like this website and other online sellers are. Breakers don't cause the high prices, people who willingly pay these high prices are the reason. And why do people pay high prices?

I agree singles are the best value in theory, but for the flippers who are driving these costs up, raw singles are not going to grade PSA 10 (in their minds). They want pack fresh cards to grade and flip.

The other part of the equation is the FOMO...collectors who will pay any price because they have disposable income and still want to play the game.

Either way i will say this. I like the checklist. Don’t know how i am going to get it. But checklist is solid. I am so ready for a full season of baseball to see which of these guys take a step forward


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[mfw13]

Originally Posted by notoriousrmb

Incorrect. Why do you think people still buy at higher prices?

Disagree.

The reason people buy-in at increasingly higher prices (thus allowing breakers to pass increased costs along) is because they're gamblers, plain and simple, and are therefore not very price-sensitive.

When your hoped-for "payoff" is a $500 card, whether your buy-in is $5 or $10 is pretty insignificant to you. But the difference between $5 and $10 for a spot in the break represents a 100% increase in revenue for the breaker.

That's why box prices have gone through the roof...

[JWBlue]

Originally Posted by hochunk5

Incorrect. Reason for these prices is the shift from selling to collectors and individuals to a large qty of breakers who will buy quantity no matter what and just pass the increased prices to each break spot.

Prices keep raising thats ok raise the slot price. Slot price becomes too high -thats ok dont break a whole case break 4 boxes. That becomes too high just do one box(looking at you panini football/basketball). And cant blame card companies. Its a reliable source of stead sales at a higher price.

Singles is literally the only way to go because all of the people overspending in these breaks rarely hit big and then need to sell off the mediocre junk they did hit to fund their next break. The big rookies are priced high but good for them. If getting cards increases so should the cards that people actually want.

Point of the story buy singles


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Have a feeling most collectors are priced out of buying cases. It is all about breakers these days. That is where the most money is.

[Gradek]

Originally Posted by mfw13

Disagree.

The reason people buy-in at increasingly higher prices (thus allowing breakers to pass increased costs along) is because they're gamblers, plain and simple, and are therefore not very price-sensitive.

When your hoped-for "payoff" is a $500 card, whether your buy-in is $5 or $10 is pretty insignificant to you. But the difference between $5 and $10 for a spot in the break represents a 100% increase in revenue for the breaker.

That's why box prices have gone through the roof...

Let’s be clear though. As far as I am aware, Topps has yet to significantly increase their prices or production (both of which are coming once we are through this COVID mess).

[JWBlue]

Is it in Topps best interest to increase production run? Is there any downside to doing so?

[Gradek]

Originally Posted by JWBlue

Is it in Topps best interest to increase production run? Is there any downside to doing so?

Very little downside as long as demand (end buyer) keeps up. If people are willing to buy a blaster for $60 on ebay, they’d likely be willing to buy 3 at $20 retail, which triples Topps revenue.

The only downside is for the wax scalpers.

[hochunk5]

Originally Posted by JWBlue

Is it in Topps best interest to increase production run? Is there any downside to doing so?

As long as they keep selling then no downside. If they ever get to a point where nobody is buying then they just scale back accordingly. I have heard the argument that it my drive off collectors by getting to watered down but really they aren’t marketing to collectors anymore anyways. Just can just keep adding more parallels (looking at you gold foil) and keep the presses running. At least we have a long way to go before we hit a 52 parallel rainbow like prizm.


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[ddearing]

Originally Posted by silverandblack

Best I’ve seen is 29.99.

$25.97 with free shipping is the top result.

[beanman25]

got in at 1 jumbo for $230. excited!!

[LVDan]

Originally Posted by ddearing

$25.97 with free shipping is the top result.

That’s a damn good deal all things considered. The idea that these will ship before any other retail format just underscores the value imo.


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[joe73]

Originally Posted by LVDan

That’s a damn good deal all things considered. The idea that these will ship before any other retail format just underscores the value imo.


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Will they? The ones I saw at $25.97 + free shipping have estimated delivery in mid-March.

[Tndbitler]

Just got the news my order has been cut to one hobby case and 2 jumbo cases. Flagship getting cut is ridiculous. Distributors make you buy it so you can get 1 box of Bowman chrome, now they cut Flagship series 1. SMH

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[LVDan]

Originally Posted by joe73

Will they? The ones I saw at $25.97 + free shipping have estimated delivery in mid-March.

Maybe not then. I guess they are preselling a 2nd batch expected in?
In any event the price is very fair and no standing in line for retail, wasting away life’s precious moments with the mouthbreathers.


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[warrenwolk]

Originally Posted by JWBlue

Have a feeling most collectors are priced out of buying cases. It is all about breakers these days. That is where the most money is.

Collectors buy boxes, not cases.

[Trueblue]

If you look at historical Topps PRs and interviews, they do not suddenly double production. They try to gradually ramp by 10-15% (maybe 20%?) increments per year. They may seem like idiots from the .com website but the higher ups that makes these macro decisions are not stupid.

[warrenwolk]

Originally Posted by hochunk5

As long as they keep selling then no downside. If they ever get to a point where nobody is buying then they just scale back accordingly. I have heard the argument that it my drive off collectors by getting to watered down but really they aren’t marketing to collectors anymore anyways. Just can just keep adding more parallels (looking at you gold foil) and keep the presses running. At least we have a long way to go before we hit a 52 parallel rainbow like prizm.

I think the breakers are keeping the card companies "honest". Who's gonna go out & spend good ching on a product that they just watched someone open a case of 12 boxes and get 2 or 3 "good" cards? Breakers made the companies cut production from previously "watered down" levels.

Now every case yields treasures. This is what drives the insanity. While the companies have exclusive contracts, the breakers serve as their competition. The companies know this, and they know it is a winning proposition for all involved. More $'s for the cardmakers, more hits for the collectors/breakers.

[jduds]

Originally Posted by mfw13

Disagree.

The reason people buy-in at increasingly higher prices (thus allowing breakers to pass increased costs along) is because they're gamblers, plain and simple, and are therefore not very price-sensitive.

When your hoped-for "payoff" is a $500 card, whether your buy-in is $5 or $10 is pretty insignificant to you. But the difference between $5 and $10 for a spot in the break represents a 100% increase in revenue for the breaker.

That's why box prices have gone through the roof...

I don't think breakers are the sole reason box prices have gone crazy, but they are a growing segment that increases demand. I do wonder what percentage of a given product end up in their hands. I have absolutely no clue at all. You could tell me any number and I'd believe it. The gambling point is valid up to a point, but a lot of gamblers are extremely price sensitive and will figure out things like expected value based on odds.

[warrenwolk]

Originally Posted by UCCF

since he's unlikely to replicate his 2020 line in the first half of 2021 (.376/.442/.682).

You mean all 30 games?

[warrenwolk]

Originally Posted by jduds

I don't think breakers are the sole reason box prices have gone crazy, but they are a growing segment that increases demand. I do wonder what percentage of a given product end up in their hands. I have absolutely no clue at all. You could tell me any number and I'd believe it. The gambling point is valid up to a point, but a lot of gamblers are extremely price sensitive and will figure out things like expected value based on odds.

I think the internet has also made it possible, make that e-z, to find those with the deepest pockets.

[Stech36]

Originally Posted by warrenwolk

Collectors buy boxes, not cases.

This is incorrect,

[Nung2019]

I’m not sure breakers have driven flagship prices that much.. it is an awful breaking product and not much margin for profit, unless they got priced in early below 1k.. can you imagine trying to sort breaks of Series 1?

[oldgoldy97]

Incorrect.


Not to anyone in general.

Or to everyone.

[mcwildcats]

Originally Posted by Stech36

This is incorrect,

Correct

[warrenwolk]

Originally Posted by Stech36

This is incorrect,

Feel free to make more than just a blanket statement....