Will Ultimate Collection ever overtake SPA for key rookies?

[k13]

Especially Crosby/Ovechkin with all the new/different money coming into the hobby.

It would be beyond laughable for Lebron Spa to sell for so much more than his Ultimate but that's what hockey has done.

[odjickfan]

In my opinion, Ultimate auto rookies /99 were always undervalued.

I pulled 2 Gallaghers /99 from group breaks in 13-14. Value of those between 50 and 100$. At the moment, Suzuki YG is 200$. Do I prefer 1 Suzuki YG or my pair of Gallagher Ultimate? The choice is easy!!!

[discostu]

It's one of the many weird "quirks" about the hockey market.

That said, it will take a lot of new, non-hockey money to make that shift.

Could it happen? Certainly.
Should it happen? Probably.
Will it happen? Square 1.

[k13]

Yes, will new big investors change this quirk...

So far, does not look like it even based on YGs which are WAY overvalued compared to spa/ultimate.

I think the common folks will be happy with their ygs and the richer people will want the best of the best eventually.

In theory ultimate should be a $20k-$25k card if not more.

[tyrith]

I’m not an expert of basketball of that era, but isn’t the big difference that hockey has The Cup? So the Ultimate RPAs are behind The Cup RPAs in the same way as modern basketball works with NT vs Immaculate/Flawless et al.

[canucksfan007]

It wont happen.

Does it make sense, nope.

The drop off between the top tier ultimate rookies and the next guys is huge. After Crosby / Ovechkin / McDavid / Matthews ..... Ultimate is dirt cheap for hard signed /99 rookies.

I think it all comes down to longevity / design / condition. MOST of the time, SPA has a far superior design to Ultimate. I know, subjective, just feel most people think that way. Its far easier to grade FW than Ultimate, simply due to card stock. A lot of Ultimate years seem to be oddly cut as well. Nothing screams longevity like YGs and FW. The few sets that have been out since the pre-Cup era that have stayed mostly the same. I feel this is undervalued in the hobby.

I think the only Ultimate Rookie I would want over their SP Authentic counter part is 05/06. The draft photos they used in SPA is far inferior to the action shot / gold background of 05/06 Ultimate

[k13]

Originally Posted by tyrith

I’m not an expert of basketball of that era, but isn’t the big difference that hockey has The Cup? So the Ultimate RPAs are behind The Cup RPAs in the same way as modern basketball works with NT vs Immaculate/Flawless et al.

Basketball has exquisite which is cup.

So it goes Cup Ultimate Spa.

[Paderborn1907]

Ultimate Collection is an absolute train wreck since epack ...

[Dr kicker]

Originally Posted by Paderborn1907

Ultimate Collection is an absolute train wreck since epack ...

I opened a ton in 08/09 , is was a bloodbath back then also.

Ultimate is all about the Shields , Ultimate Debut Threads use to be good but they watered down the products so much now.

Many people puts up YG and SPA rookie sets every year , Ultimate you can probably count them on your hands. Ultimate was never about the rookies and probably never will be.

[tyrith]

I'm not really sure what Ultimate is about, personally. But I would agree - I think the Ultimate rookies are mostly ugly, and I much prefer Premier as a rookie set. At least the acetate RPAs are distinct and clean looking.

[CB Nostalgia]

Ultimate is a second tier product. Obviously print run doesn't matter for the market because you now have $2000+ USD copies of Young Guns that have thousands of copies. Future Watch is a brand in itself.

[k13]

Originally Posted by CB Nostalgia

Ultimate is a second tier product. Obviously print run doesn't matter for the market because you now have $2000+ USD copies of Young Guns that have thousands of copies. Future Watch is a brand in itself.

How does it sell higher in Basketball?

Obviously I'm not talking about what the old hockey thinking was about branding. More the future.

No one cared about prizm for many years and now they do.

Hobby is always changing and evolving.

[Paderborn1907]

Originally Posted by k13

How does it sell higher in Basketball?

Obviously I'm not talking about what the old hockey thinking was about branding. More the future.

No one cared about prizm for many years and now they do.

Hobby is always changing and evolving.

Nobody would care about Prizm if TOPPS Chrome would be still available (in Football).

Impeccable looks much better than NT, but is not relevant at all.

Contenders were always an awful break compared to similar products, but that stuff still sells out no matter the price.

It’s only about branding especially since the exclusives and the Ultimate brand is rather weak and only about the Shield hunt, so it as to settle somewhere where Immaculate is in the Basketball world.

[hche]

Contenders FB was popular due to the original SP RC autos. If you pulled a SP /50, even a scrub can get you $1k. Now it is just too many variations and parallels. But the brand is recognized and the key RCs are all on card autos. If anyone asks for the auto FB RC to get, it is still NT or Contenders.

Brand name is important. New money will flow to YG or SPA or Cup before Ultimate.

[trask7]

I think Ultimate is a sleeper. If Hockey starts picking up steam like the other sports, there will be a big price jump. I think SPA is a amazing but I would take a McDavid Ultimate /99 over /999,.

I have a PSA 8 McDavid Ultimate rc auto /99 and patch auto /99 BGS 9.5 and they are still a steal in my opinion. When is the last time you have seen the Ultimate /99?

[k13]

You guys know that Tavares/Stamkos Ultimate's have been selling higher than Future Watch for many many years.

Crosby/Ovechkin are not that far off.

So there are already Ultimate's that sell higher than FWA.

[JMarchand1981]

I dunno. I have a crosby FWA. I wouldn't trade it for a crosby ultimate unless some cash was coming back.

[rrk100]

I have a theory, and anyone feel free to disprove it. If a series has limited the number of copies of rookie card to /99, then as more and more of these /99 cards are discovered/publicly bought/sold, then the odds of pulling one of these cards from a sealed box/case becomes increasingly (exponentially?) less likely. Therefore I would think that that would make these specific products less and less appealing as time goes on.

Compared to regular plain vanilla Upper Deck, where the odds of pulling that player’s young gun should remain more constant due to how much is printed. If you wanted to pull a rookie card of a player and wanted the best odds relative to price, what product (lottery ticket?) makes more sense to purchase?

Open to dissent/disagreement in this matter. I do own 3 or 4 2015-16 SP Authentic boxes so I do have some skin in the game, FWIW.

[canucksfan007]

Future watch and Young Guns are an easy to manipulate market, especially when only looking at PSA 10s. Ultimate rookies, especially when looking for a PSA 10, are not.

[k13]

Remember when everyone said it was impossible for ovechkin to sell as much as crosby...the gap was almost 4x at one point and look were we are.

[Paderborn1907]

Originally Posted by k13

Remember when everyone said it was impossible for ovechkin to sell as much as crosby...the gap was almost 4x at one point and look were we are.

Because Ovi couldn’t get it done, Capitals always went out early. You need a cup to be a hobby darling later in your career. He did it, so he’ll be fine now ... McDavid might face the same problem at one point.

... but outside of Dan Marino or Charles Barkley (it doesn’t matter in Baseball), you can’t be truly great without a cup/ring. Crosby achieved it way earlier.

[k13]

People said Canadian vs Russian. Center vs winger.
No one thought just one cup would equal Crosby.

[valleynuckfan]

Originally Posted by k13

People said Canadian vs Russian. Center vs winger.
No one thought just one cup would equal Crosby.

Covid completely changed the landscape around collecting and investing. As did the surge in breakers getting small-time business licenses and buying up all the product- especially BB, FB and BSKB which pushed the itchy fingers into the HKY market.
BOOM! HKY is now on the upswing and corrections are happening. And Ovie's "chase" of the all time goals record helps a lot too. There are enough newer investors that triggered his upswing along with the other conditions.
But your comment about Canadian vs Russian has some validity. It has been that way for a very long time. Jagr finally getting some well deserved love. Malkin too.
Fedorov? Forsberg? Selanne? Kurri? Lidstrom? Modano? Kane? Hossa ? Peter Stastny (no cups but the highest scorer in the 80s besides Wayne and the career highest scoring Slovakian besides Stan Mikita who was pretty much Canadian bred and the product of the NA system)? to name just a few. All cup winners and all-time leaders in certain ways for their respective countries.

[michaelvanek]

I’ve always been a fan of ultimate as it was the release just before the cup. I considered it high end and would wait till the end of the year buy my ultimate cases just to feed the need to crack until the cup came out. I thought all products were pretty junky with their non autos or sticker autos. Spa has the hard auto but ya it’s /999 I want the rare hard auto /99. Pulling the shields was always fun too. I hope that ultimate starts going up in value and it’s pretty much all I collect atm. I’m buying high grade /99s bgs or psa if any of you guys are selling hit me up.


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[valleynuckfan]

Originally Posted by michaelvanek

I’ve always been a fan of ultimate as it was the release just before the cup. I considered it high end and would wait till the end of the year buy my ultimate cases just to feed the need to crack until the cup came out. I thought all products were pretty junky with their non autos or sticker autos. Spa has the hard auto but ya it’s /999 I want the rare hard auto /99. Pulling the shields was always fun too. I hope that ultimate starts going up in value and it’s pretty much all I collect atm. I’m buying high grade /99s bgs or psa if any of you guys are selling hit me up.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

On-card autos all the way- stickers are for kids!