We are only at the beginning of this market boom....

[pewe]

Originally Posted by dbpsooner

I have a lot of thoughts on this but unfortunately don't have a lot of time. I think it is hard to lump all sports cards into one market. Much like the stock market, I view cards similar to the way I view certain stocks. 20 years from now there will be cards that have appreciated significantly above current levels and those that crash to almost nothing. Same thing in the short term.

The card market is certainly not immune to a larger market correction in the same way the stock market is. Trying to predict the peaks and valleys is a fools errand in my opinion. If we see a stock market correction, I think it is silly to think sports cards would be immune to that. Having said that, with where interest rates are currently and are projected to stay, I don't see why alternative investments like sports cards can't continue to boom in the present and immediate future, especially when considering how new the attention to this market is.

I hear you re: time... so frequently I’d love to really think about this stuff more

This morning I had a block where I was kicked out of the home office for cleaning people. But now I’m back to the grind stone


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[MoreToppsPlease]

Originally Posted by buffbills83

I've been collecting for 20 years, this market is absolutely bananas. So much so that I am selling a lot of my higher end BGS/PSA slabs for ridiculous prices. Normally I feel bad letting PC items go, but I am 100% certain I will be able to buy these cards back for way cheaper sooner or later.

I have a baseball question for this board, since I am mainly football/hockey. I have some 89 UD Griffey PSA 9s and raw cards. What the heck happened to that card? This is widely known to be so over produced and not PSA 9's are going for like $400 and raws for $100 or so? I just look at the PSA pop and there are 25k PSA 9s out there. 25k!! And that is just PSA. Is there something I am missing, or are people just simply ignoring all this data and buying up everything no matter what nowadays?

What’s happening is similar to when soccer moms were buying McGwire rookies at mall shows and LCSs for their kids when McGwire was battling Sosa in the ‘90s.

Sellers were all too happy to sell McGwires at 200% markups to newbies then. Too bad the card can be had today at 10% that price.

Sellers love newbies because they believe anything.

[dbpsooner]

Interestingly enough, I found myself selling more than I ever have during this pandemic boom, as my investment mix became more and more unbalanced. On the flip side, I struggled to buy as much, likely because I think there is a mental barrier when you follow something closely and see it go up so fast. I am having the same issue in the stock market.

I know my wife and I took this time to update our house and know many people that did the same. Unfortunately I am not close to anyone that buys/sells sports cards so it is hard for me to speak outside of my own experience in regard to the card market, specifically as it relates to the pandemic. I think that is why I spend time here with others that share this interest.

[MuskokaMelts]

Originally Posted by dbpsooner

Interestingly enough, I found myself selling more than I ever have during this pandemic boom, as my investment mix became more and more unbalanced. On the flip side, I struggled to buy as much, likely because I think there is a mental barrier when you follow something closely and see it go up so fast. I am having the same issue in the stock market.

I know my wife and I took this time to update our house and know many people that did the same. Unfortunately I am not close to anyone that buys/sells sports cards so it is hard for me to speak outside of my own experience in regard to the card market, specifically as it relates to the pandemic. I think that is why I spend time here with others that share this interest.

I did the same, I've been selling cards and putting the money into my house. I built a 40' porch and re shingled my house solely off of sports card sales this summer. Lately all my card profits have been going into stable investments that I believe are recession proof. Have I given up on the hobby? Hell no but I did seriously reconsider my collecting strategy. Do I think we will continue to grow? Yes I do, but I do believe a correction is coming and if/when it does I will still be very happy with my decisions, a solid pc and a much paired down collection is a win/win to me.

[chester0711]

Originally Posted by dbpsooner

Interestingly enough, I found myself selling more than I ever have during this pandemic boom, as my investment mix became more and more unbalanced. On the flip side, I struggled to buy as much, likely because I think there is a mental barrier when you follow something closely and see it go up so fast. I am having the same issue in the stock market.

I know my wife and I took this time to update our house and know many people that did the same. Unfortunately I am not close to anyone that buys/sells sports cards so it is hard for me to speak outside of my own experience in regard to the card market, specifically as it relates to the pandemic. I think that is why I spend time here with others that share this interest.

Your last 2 sentences speak volumes. When was the last time you sat at a dinner table with you and your wifes friends and started prattling on about sports cards? How does that go over? What type of looks do you get?

Until it becomes generally accepted as, at the very least socially acceptable to the masses, sports cards live in their own little vacuum. They get talked about by the hundreds even thousands in forums like this but outside? no.

People with real money are not looking at sports cards as investments. No matter what some random celebrity or investment guru tells you.

The growth in this industry is hucksters trying to make a buck off other wanna be hucksters. The rest of us living off scraps mainly.

When the grifter moves on, the ashes will settle and we will be back to talking about pack feelers and headlines on forums that read "Come look at my COMC, everything 70% off" or willing to move my collection at 80% off of eBay going prices.

Either this or you are betting on sports cards becoming cool in the mainstream. Aint happening!

I am not trying to be negative, but hate to see people get taken. There will be a lot of very angry and potentially broke and highly leveraged people on these forums in the future.

I watched a 22 years old by NBA wax the other day by spreading the purchase across 3 credit cards. Each one to the max limit, while his buddy said, "dude don't worry, at minimum we break even, this stuff is so hot!"

The shop owner was literally embarassed as he watched them walk out. I just shook my head and he said, happens everyday now. I cant keep enough stuff stocked on the shelves.

Brace yourselves!

[dbpsooner]

Originally Posted by chester0711

Your last 2 sentences speak volumes. When was the last time you sat at a dinner table with you and your wifes friends and started prattling on about sports cards? How does that go over? What type of looks do you get?

Until it becomes generally accepted as, at the very least socially acceptable to the masses, sports cards live in their own little vacuum. They get talked about by the hundreds even thousands in forums like this but outside? no.

People with real money are not looking at sports cards as investments. No matter what some random celebrity or investment guru tells you.

The growth in this industry is hucksters trying to make a buck off other wanna be hucksters. The rest of us living off scraps mainly.

When the grifter moves on, the ashes will settle and we will be back to talking about pack feelers and headlines on forums that read "Come look at my COMC, everything 70% off" or willing to move my collection at 80% off of eBay going prices.

Either this or you are betting on sports cards becoming cool in the mainstream. Aint happening!

I will say, I have never been shy about discussing sports cards with friends, especially friends that share common interests in sports and gambling. Most know that I participate in this market. In fact, this year more than ever, friends will send me articles of the new record sales we continue to see, and have shown an interest in discussing it with me. I have also been fortunate in that I have cards that I bought a couple years ago for a couple grand sell recently for 6 figures. These stories are always interesting to people. Many of my friends are very interested in the market but I think a lack of knowledge for most people and the lack of time to invest in the market is a major barrier for many.

[pewe]

Originally Posted by chester0711

I watched a 22 years old by NBA wax the other day by spreading the purchase across 3 credit cards. Each one to the max limit, while his buddy said, "dude don't worry, at minimum we break even, this stuff is so hot!"

Yikes! Big red flag here

Buying on credit / using leverage is the precursor to a crash, so I would be worried about signals like this.


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[dio]

Originally Posted by pewe

Yikes! Big red flag here

Buying on credit / using leverage is the precursor to a crash, so I would be worried about signals like this.


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Same goes with margin on stocks
What's tesla pe ratio right now? If musk got killed. This thing is over. Stock is so inflated but ppl still put in ridiculous money into it. Why. Cuz thanks to our fed. Cash is becoming useless

Everything goes up except for your salary

[crpav]

Exactly to the above. I know it because it's an addiction.

Cards will not completely die. Vintage will be fine as will the proven stars. Prices though won't be where they are and if they do remain well we will see. Show me the actual collectors paying the insane prices? Nobody that collects actually can collect at the going rate for most of the cards. Kobe was great but 500-1200 for a raw base Topps card? Come on man, that's just stupid. $50,000+ for some of the psa 10s? Again, no. The average collectors are happy because they see these insane prices and they got in on the cheap ground floor. Those paying these manipulated prices are those trying to invest and sell to the next. I am sure it's not your average Kobe collector who grew up watching Kobe and can now afford those prices. Same for baseball.

Then paying crazy prices non stop for the next unproven star? Saying getting in on the ground floor just doesn't work as the ground floor is now the "put up Trout numbers for a few years" prices. I don't know, too many will come in and throw their argument in as usual but that's my take.

I just miss, and want back, how it was back when I collected Shaq, Kobe and Frank Thomas between 1990 to about 2006 where it was affordable to rip wax and buy singles. Not saying you can't but now the low end boxes cost 80-120 and grading has ruined the majority of being able to get a nice raw card at a reasonable price. Either pay the gem price or get crap scraps with damage.

[chester0711]

Dont get me started on grading.

The biggest problem with grading is it makes MINT and Gem MINT look like the only suitable condition for a card.

If you sell a card and it has even the slightest of flaws, you are mostly likely going to get it back.

GEM MINT is literally the common measuring stick for a card grade. PSA 9 is an afterthought for any modern card.

Mind you, the card makers would tell you, and have in the past, that a card shouldn't be expected to leave a pack in anything above PSA 8 which is NM-MT.

The expectation that anything valuable is a PSA 10 is akin to high school girls thinking they all have to look like super models and will do whatever they can to look like that.

[joe73]

Originally Posted by chester0711

Your last 2 sentences speak volumes. When was the last time you sat at a dinner table with you and your wifes friends and started prattling on about sports cards? How does that go over? What type of looks do you get?

Until it becomes generally accepted as, at the very least socially acceptable to the masses, sports cards live in their own little vacuum. They get talked about by the hundreds even thousands in forums like this but outside? no.

People with real money are not looking at sports cards as investments. No matter what some random celebrity or investment guru tells you.

The growth in this industry is hucksters trying to make a buck off other wanna be hucksters. The rest of us living off scraps mainly.

Exactly right. Is there a single respectable rich person/celebrity talking about sports cards?

Gary Vee, Vegas Dave, Dave G, Logan Paul, now Dan Bilzerian.

These are the people who've been making headlines. One grifter and pump-and-dump sleazebag after another.

[SupermanBrandon]

Originally Posted by joe73

Exactly right. Is there a single respectable rich person/celebrity talking about sports cards?

Gary Vee, Vegas Dave, Dave G, Logan Paul, now Dan Bilzerian.

These are the people who've been making headlines. One grifter and pump-and-dump sleazebag after another.

He's back! and better than ever?

[monkeymcgee]

They just don't talk about cards the way you'd like them to. As for the ones who do actually like cards for cards sake, how about Olbermann or Bill Simmons?

[ThoseBackPages]

welcome back joe

[kyle1707]

Originally Posted by cardsin47

Yes. No crash / correction

Cards have always moved up

But ie

Ripken Psa 10 traded was like 1500-2000 for years now 8000-9000 in 4 months

Same Jerry rice Rc Psa 9/10 and griffey Psa 10 could go on and on

Every thing has 5-10 x since November

Buyer beware

[premium1981]

Originally Posted by kyle1707

Cards have always moved up

But ie

Ripken Psa 10 traded was like 1500-2000 for years now 8000-9000 in 4 months

Same Jerry rice Rc Psa 9/10 and griffey Psa 10 could go on and on

Every thing has 5-10 x since November

Buyer beware

5-10x is nothing. We are going to 100x. Lock in now!

[joe73]

Originally Posted by SupermanBrandon

He's back! and better than ever?

I never left!

Originally Posted by monkeymcgee

They just don't talk about cards the way you'd like them to. As for the ones who do actually like cards for cards sake, how about Olbermann or Bill Simmons?

Neither of those guys are card shills. Olbermann hates almost everything about the current "hobby," including TPGs. The people who love cards for cards aren't driving any of the craziness.

The point is, we're told that cards are hot because of the smart money pouring in. But who's the smart money? It's not Vegas Dave or Dan Bilzerian.

[crpav]

The unfortunate effect from all this insane increase is not a good outlook. You think when it all settles and mostly only collectors are left, you know the ones that make your standard NON MILLIONAIRE money, they are going to be spending the money that sellers will "have" to ask because nobody is going to offload their cards for a crazy loss unless they are near homeless and in shambles...which might also be caused by this.

What I'm saying is the last left who paid stupid prices get left with a kick in the nuts. THat's why a slow and traditional increase in cards that should increase to keep the hobby flowing is what was and is needed. Same for wax prices but that's another story. Go light your 100 dollar bills somewhere else.

[MoreToppsPlease]

Originally Posted by crpav

The unfortunate effect from all this insane increase is not a good outlook. You think when it all settles and mostly only collectors are left, you know the ones that make your standard NON MILLIONAIRE money, they are going to be spending the money that sellers will "have" to ask because nobody is going to offload their cards for a crazy loss unless they are near homeless and in shambles...which might also be caused by this.

What I'm saying is the last left who paid stupid prices get left with a kick in the nuts. THat's why a slow and traditional increase in cards that should increase to keep the hobby flowing is what was and is needed. Same for wax prices but that's another story. Go light your 100 dollar bills somewhere else.

Agreed, gradual, natural, predictable increases (or decreases) are best and healthiest.

Subjective, large peaks and valleys are dangerous. Sudden peaks are especially dangerous and smack of manipulation and/or newbie involvement.

[joe73]

Originally Posted by crpav

The unfortunate effect from all this insane increase is not a good outlook. You think when it all settles and mostly only collectors are left, you know the ones that make your standard NON MILLIONAIRE money, they are going to be spending the money that sellers will "have" to ask because nobody is going to offload their cards for a crazy loss unless they are near homeless and in shambles...which might also be caused by this.

What I'm saying is the last left who paid stupid prices get left with a kick in the nuts. THat's why a slow and traditional increase in cards that should increase to keep the hobby flowing is what was and is needed. Same for wax prices but that's another story. Go light your 100 dollar bills somewhere else.

Most of these people won't have a choice if the gravy train stops rolling. No doubt a large percentage of them are living off the CC float and those PayPal loans.

[Publius]

Originally Posted by SupermanBrandon

He's back! and better than ever?

You dont actually watch YouTube or follow social media do you? As you definitely don't understand them.

[Publius]

Lots of volatility in the market. The recent Jordan PSA 10 with Heritage sold for less than the Goldin sales. Look for Mahomes cards to drop. Getting exposed in the Super Bowl does not bode well for his rookies.

[hatchd]

Originally Posted by Publius

Lots of volatility in the market. The recent Jordan PSA 10 with Heritage sold for less than the Goldin sales. Look for Mahomes cards to drop. Getting exposed in the Super Bowl does not bode well for his rookies.

Getting exposed


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[2010GBPackers]

I used to think the sky was seconds away from falling in this "hobby" until I realized:

a) There are many things that are fades, but professional sports is not one of them. People are as addicted to sports as....

b) Gambling. I started noticing it around 2013/2014. Guys in the LCS (myself included) were getting the same rush as the gamblers at the casino.

c) Our current media. Everything about our culture screams, "look at me". Owning a PSA 10 Fleer Jordan is just another way to feel good about yourself - whether it's healthy or not.

d) Income inequality. Have you guys ever traveled throughout the US? Holy Christ, there are millions of people with tons of money with nothing to spend it on. Every time I'm in a new city or resort/tourist town, I'm thinking to myself, "What in the hell do these people do for a living?" as I go block after block of million dollar houses. Apparently, I'm doing something wrong.

e) Nostalgia. Sure, it may have seemed corny to most that there were grown men still collection cards, but everyone has a memory of it one way or another. And now it's cool?

I'm sure there are many, many more factors. These are just the few that popped in my head.

[auctionjmm]

Originally Posted by chester0711

Your last 2 sentences speak volumes. When was the last time you sat at a dinner table with you and your wifes friends and started prattling on about sports cards? How does that go over? What type of looks do you get?

Until it becomes generally accepted as, at the very least socially acceptable to the masses, sports cards live in their own little vacuum. They get talked about by the hundreds even thousands in forums like this but outside? no.

People with real money are not looking at sports cards as investments. No matter what some random celebrity or investment guru tells you.

The growth in this industry is hucksters trying to make a buck off other wanna be hucksters. The rest of us living off scraps mainly.

When the grifter moves on, the ashes will settle and we will be back to talking about pack feelers and headlines on forums that read "Come look at my COMC, everything 70% off" or willing to move my collection at 80% off of eBay going prices.

Either this or you are betting on sports cards becoming cool in the mainstream. Aint happening!

I am not trying to be negative, but hate to see people get taken. There will be a lot of very angry and potentially broke and highly leveraged people on these forums in the future.

I watched a 22 years old by NBA wax the other day by spreading the purchase across 3 credit cards. Each one to the max limit, while his buddy said, "dude don't worry, at minimum we break even, this stuff is so hot!"

The shop owner was literally embarassed as he watched them walk out. I just shook my head and he said, happens everyday now. I cant keep enough stuff stocked on the shelves.

Brace yourselves!

I disagree with this because there are also people who collect/invest in rare cigars, bottles of wine, coins, and fine art and you don't hear the masses talking about those things either. The masses don't need to be interested in something for it to have legs. I think affordability is the reason. A middle income family is not concerned about fine art because that, for them, would be a new roof or a nice family vacation. Rare collectibles is a rich person's game and that's whose buying PSA 10 Jordans. Doesn't mean the stuff will be worthless later on.