We are only at the beginning of this market boom....

[auctionjmm]

Originally Posted by joe73

Anyone who doesn't believe there's a bubble should absolutely be mortgaged to the hilt. It's easy money.

Likewise, if you're positive cards will be worth more in 6 months, you should be holding, not racing to eBay.

This isn't hard. Interesting how so many people here want to have it both ways.

Nearly every financial expert (especially the ones who write books about it) preach diversity and annual re-allocation. Having it both ways is the key to financial security. It's called responsible investing. Never put all your chips in one basket no matter how good any market is. You are again trying to box everyone into an all or nothing proposition that goes against all common financial sense. You can believe in a particular market or sector while still hedging with others. You can believe the DOW is heading to 40,000 while still holding 55% of your assets in bonds. Just stop with the "If you believe it then prove" philosophy because even the best investors don't do that. You're right, it isn't hard. Stop making it seem so hard.

[JWBlue]

I can see something like Beenie Babies being a fad. Not tangible assets of professional athletes with an endless # of fans.

[joe73]

Originally Posted by auctionjmm

Nearly every financial expert (especially the ones who write books about it) preach diversity and annual re-allocation. Having it both ways is the key to financial security. It's called responsible investing. Never put all your chips in one basket no matter how good any market is. You are again trying to box everyone into an all or nothing proposition that goes against all common financial sense. You can believe in a particular market or sector while still hedging with others. You can believe the DOW is heading to 40,000 while still holding 55% of your assets in bonds. Just stop with the "If you believe it then prove" philosophy because even the best investors don't do that. You're right, it isn't hard. Stop making it seem so hard.

Should people invest in Mike Trout and Steve Trout for purposes of diversification?

A lot of people here like to talk a big game but don't truly want to put their money where their mouths are.

[joe73]

Originally Posted by JWBlue

I can see something like Beenie Babies being a fad. Not tangible assets of professional athletes with an endless # of fans.

They're just pieces of cardboard.

[CharlieHustle]

Joe is right, about this thread. It only broke out of the first page because so many were unwilling to acknowledge that this is a bubble.
There are several posts within the first 2 pages of his forum filled with responses suggesting that there is no bubble.
And no, it wasn't because they were mocking Joe.

I've seen the phrase "This is the new normal" more over the last 3 days than I have over the last 25 years.

[JoeAdam]

Originally Posted by CharlieHustle

Joe is right, about this thread. It only broke out of the first page because so many were unwilling to acknowledge that this is a bubble.
There are several posts within the first 2 pages of his forum filled with responses suggesting that there is no bubble.
And no, it wasn't because they were mocking Joe.

I've seen the phrase "This is the new normal" more over the last 3 days than I have over the last 25 years.

Ride the bubble to the top. Keep buying and flipping and hold little inventory. That’s how I’m playing this period. Making money on every transaction and have very little downside risk.

[CharlieHustle]

Originally Posted by JoeAdam

Ride the bubble to the top. Keep buying and flipping and hold little inventory. That’s how I’m playing this period. Making money on every transaction and have very little downside risk.

I'm a collector. I buy cards for my PC.
I'll be doing the same when the bubble pops.

[auctionjmm]

Originally Posted by joe73

A lot of people here like to talk a big game but don't truly want to put their money where their mouths are.

Because nobody can predict the future. If the U.S. got into a conflict with North Korea that started World War 3 do you think stocks and cards would be stable? Why would anyone with any kind of wealth put it all into one market and roll the dice on scoring big? You are daring us to be fools, and when we say "no thanks" you are responding with "Ha, I told you so!". Such a childish argument you've put together.

Would you STFU and leave this forum if we all agreed that the future is unpredictable and anything could happen? Is that all you want to hear from us? Alright Joe, you win. We can't predict the future. You really showed us.

[JoeAdam]

Originally Posted by CharlieHustle

I'm a collector. I buy cards for my PC.
I'll be doing the same when the bubble pops.

Why can’t you be both? Buy a $100 card, sell it for $150, use the $50 to buy something for your PC and your PC is basically free. Rinse and repeat.

[rwperu34]

Originally Posted by CharlieHustle

Joe is right, about this thread. It only broke out of the first page because so many were unwilling to acknowledge that this is a bubble.
There are several posts within the first 2 pages of his forum filled with responses suggesting that there is no bubble.
And no, it wasn't because they were mocking Joe.

I've seen the phrase "This is the new normal" more over the last 3 days than I have over the last 25 years.

I will argue until I'm blue in the face that bubbles are only predictable after the fact. Even then you'll only be right half the time.

My argument would be not that prices aren't going to fall, it's that we don't know when, by how much, or how much is the run-up before the fall. At least you had the decency to put somewhat of a timeframe on it. Joe said explicitly he can't put a timeframe on it, which makes any prediction of his completely worthless.

Since Joe's first call for a bubble under this screen name, prices are up 30%. They can fall quite a bit from here and he'd still have been wrong.

[discodanman45]

Card collecting is turning into a millionaire's hobby. For collector's waiting for the bubble to burst, you may never buy cards for another decade. I am in my 40's and people I know are collecting certain cards like art. My friend is a lawyer and wants a Michael Jordan rookie for his office. My sister is buying a Tom Brady rookie for her room that she has been decorating with autographs for years. I want this to be a bubble. I want more cards! This may be the new normal for years. It is now cool to show your wealth through your collection. The iconic cards are display pieces.

It is now cool for rappers, athletes, and other rich celebrities' to collect cards and show off these cards. The PSA 10's are being displayed in mansions, man caves, and in the offices of the elite in our country. It makes me sad, but this is the way things may be for awhile. Things will get much higher before they drop.

The high end cards are not being flipped as much as they were. I constantly watch PSA 10's Fleer Update Kirby Puckett's because I have one. Last one sold for $1900. They used to be more plentiful on eBay, but it is only 1 or two of them on their at a time right now. People are buying to show off. This is our modern day art. However, PSA has to tell you it is art with their grade of 10.

[CharlieHustle]

Originally Posted by rwperu34

I will argue until I'm blue in the face that bubbles are only predictable after the fact. Even then you'll only be right half the time.

My argument would be not that prices aren't going to fall, it's that we don't know when, by how much, or how much is the run-up before the fall. At least you had the decency to put somewhat of a timeframe on it. Joe said explicitly he can't put a timeframe on it, which makes any prediction of his completely worthless.

Since Joe's first call for a bubble under this screen name, prices are up 30%. They can fall quite a bit from here and he'd still have been wrong.

I'm comfortable and confident calling it a bubble.
Most of what is happening now, is eerily reminiscent of what happened during the grading card boom of the early 2000's.
Graded cards went up very quickly.
Sealed wax went up.
Case prices were doubling.
Modern Rc's were being bought by the dozens to send in for grading.

Then it stopped.
And there was a noticeable lull in the "hobby" from about 2003 until Strasburg-Mania.

[JWBlue]

Originally Posted by discodanman45

Card collecting is turning into a millionaire's hobby. For collector's waiting for the bubble to burst, you may never buy cards for another decade. I am in my 40's and people I know are collecting certain cards like art. My friend is a lawyer and wants a Michael Jordan rookie for his office. My sister is buying a Tom Brady rookie for her room that she has been decorating with autographs for years. I want this to be a bubble. I want more cards! This may be the new normal for years. It is now cool to show your wealth through your collection. The iconic cards are display pieces.

It is now cool for rappers, athletes, and other rich celebrities' to collect cards and show off these cards. The PSA 10's are being displayed in mansions, man caves, and in the offices of the elite in our country. It makes me sad, but this is the way things may be for awhile. Things will get much higher before they drop.

The high end cards are not being flipped as much as they were. I constantly watch PSA 10's Fleer Update Kirby Puckett's because I have one. Last one sold for $1900. They used to be more plentiful on eBay, but it is only 1 or two of them on their at a time right now. People are buying to show off. This is our modern day art. However, PSA has to tell you it is art with their grade of 10.

EXACTLY.

[CharlieHustle]

Originally Posted by discodanman45

Card collecting is turning into a millionaire's hobby. For collector's waiting for the bubble to burst, you may never buy cards for another decade. I am in my 40's and people I know are collecting certain cards like art. My friend is a lawyer and wants a Michael Jordan rookie for his office. My sister is buying a Tom Brady rookie for her room that she has been decorating with autographs for years. I want this to be a bubble. I want more cards! This may be the new normal for years. It is now cool to show your wealth through your collection. The iconic cards are display pieces.

It is now cool for rappers, athletes, and other rich celebrities' to collect cards and show off these cards. The PSA 10's are being displayed in mansions, man caves, and in the offices of the elite in our country. It makes me sad, but this is the way things may be for awhile. Things will get much higher before they drop.

The high end cards are not being flipped as much as they were. I constantly watch PSA 10's Fleer Update Kirby Puckett's because I have one. Last one sold for $1900. They used to be more plentiful on eBay, but it is only 1 or two of them on their at a time right now. People are buying to show off. This is our modern day art. However, PSA has to tell you it is art with their grade of 10.

High end collecting is a millionaire's hobby.
Target's shelves being empty is the result of everyone else at the bottom and in the middle and I'm not using that phrasing to be derogatory.

[joe73]

Originally Posted by auctionjmm

Because nobody can predict the future. If the U.S. got into a conflict with North Korea that started World War 3 do you think stocks and cards would be stable? Why would anyone with any kind of wealth put it all into one market and roll the dice on scoring big? You are daring us to be fools, and when we say "no thanks" you are responding with "Ha, I told you so!". Such a childish argument you've put together.

Would you STFU and leave this forum if we all agreed that the future is unpredictable and anything could happen? Is that all you want to hear from us? Alright Joe, you win. We can't predict the future. You really showed us.

This is borderline unhinged. By this "logic," there's not even any point in saving for tomorrow, since the world might end.

Obviously, if WWIII broke out tomorrow, things would change. But that's true of everything, from stocks to house prices to the price of gas.

[joe73]

Originally Posted by rwperu34

I will argue until I'm blue in the face that bubbles are only predictable after the fact. Even then you'll only be right half the time.

My argument would be not that prices aren't going to fall, it's that we don't know when, by how much, or how much is the run-up before the fall. At least you had the decency to put somewhat of a timeframe on it. Joe said explicitly he can't put a timeframe on it, which makes any prediction of his completely worthless.

Since Joe's first call for a bubble under this screen name, prices are up 30%. They can fall quite a bit from here and he'd still have been wrong.

That last paragraph really says it all. Sports card prices are up 30% in one month, in a "hobby" that has existed for ~75 years.

[Rjk214]

As I said earlier, this certainly may be a "bubble" but that doesn't mean anything. The stock market is a bubble (Has been for 6 years now) but if it goes up for another 4 years then it crashes 50% just means you are back to where you started.

To me though it is much more than that. Sports gambling is gaining serious momentum nationally in which that puts more eyes on sports, which in turn puts more eyes on sports cards. Sports cards are a form of gambling.

I don't believe you will see the acceleration in which you have had as of late continue but I do believe you will see it grow for quite some more time. No longer are the days of getting crap Auto's for $0.50-1.00 IMO. Those are easily worth $2,3,4 now. The race to the bottom mentality is subsiding a little bit b/c the market is expanding and will only continue to do so with what I mentioned above

[joe73]

Originally Posted by Rjk214

To me though it is much more than that. Sports gambling is gaining serious momentum nationally in which that puts more eyes on sports, which in turn puts more eyes on sports cards. Sports cards are a form of gambling.

I understand gambling on cards in the absence of live sports to gamble on. I don't see why gamblers would prefer gambling on cards instead of betting on games. Does watching an eBay auction countdown really compare to watching a sporting event?

[Rjk214]

Originally Posted by joe73

I understand gambling on cards in the absence of live sports to gamble on. I don't see why gamblers would prefer gambling on cards instead of betting on games. Does watching an eBay auction countdown really compare to watching a sporting event?

It has nothing to do with that. That’s not what I said. Sports Betting is gaining national momentum. This increases eyes on sports. Which increases eyes on sports cards. Hence why prices can be seen moving upwards and will continue to do so for quite a period of time as it gains more traction IMO.

Now to your point, gamblers like to gamble. They will find new ways to do it. Sports Cards can be a form of that. Especially with casinos harder to go to. That is where some form of the “bubble” lies.

You have to put it all together and it’s easy to understand I think.

[joe73]

Originally Posted by Rjk214

It has nothing to do with that. That’s not what I said. Sports Betting is gaining national momentum. This increases eyes on sports. Which increases eyes on sports cards. Hence why prices can be seen moving upwards and will continue to do so for quite a period of time as it gains more traction IMO.

Others in this thread have said gamblers shifted their attention to cards since there were fewer or no games to bet on. I thought you were making that same point.

As for your point above, there's not much evidence of that happening, is there? MLB/NFL/NBA TV ratings are way down, even with people trapped at home with nowhere to go.

Sports gambling is nothing new; only the legalization. Has there been a known gambler/card collector link? Small sample size, but none of the gamblers I know have ever mentioned any interest in cards.

[CharlieHustle]

Originally Posted by Rjk214

It has nothing to do with that. That’s not what I said. Sports Betting is gaining national momentum. This increases eyes on sports. Which increases eyes on sports cards. Hence why prices can be seen moving upwards and will continue to do so for quite a period of time as it gains more traction IMO.

Now to your point, gamblers like to gamble. They will find new ways to do it. Sports Cards can be a form of that. Especially with casinos harder to go to. That is where some form of the “bubble” lies.

You have to put it all together and it’s easy to understand I think.

Personally, I dont think gambling or sports betting is having anywhere near the effect on prices that you may be giving them credit for.
Gary V can affect a product's price or even a player's overall price with one tweet and cause more of a wave than betting/gambling can.

[Rjk214]

Originally Posted by joe73

Others in this thread have said gamblers shifted their attention to cards since there were fewer or no games to bet on. I thought you were making that same point.

As for your point above, there's not much evidence of that happening, is there? MLB/NFL/NBA TV ratings are way down, even with people trapped at home with nowhere to go.

Sports gambling is nothing new; only the legalization. Has there been a known gambler/card collector link? Small sample size, but none of the gamblers I know have ever mentioned any interest in cards.

Wasn't it MGM that took in its largest monthly haul ever in November? All while ratings have "slipped". I bet on almost every game daily but yet I don't watch any of them. I know many many people that do the same now as well. There are ways to watch/listen/get live updates for sports that aren't included in ratings.

There doesn't have to be a link to it at least not right away. But history would tell you the more eyes that hit something and can be linked as how I mention they will be should be easy to put together!

[Rjk214]

Originally Posted by CharlieHustle

Personally, I dont think gambling or sports betting is having anywhere near the effect on prices that you may be giving them credit for.
Gary V can affect a product's price or even a player's overall price with one tweet and cause more of a wave than betting/gambling can.

Certainly. For 1 player.

But the boom is more than 1 player. Or more than just high end. How have $0.50 unwanted and undesirable Auto cards gone up to $2,3,4 now? That doesn't happen b/c overall interest is going down.... You have to have a big move towards sports in general to do that. Sports Betting gaining traction nationally IMO is helping not hurting. The numbers and the timing tell you that

[CharlieHustle]

Originally Posted by Rjk214

Certainly. For 1 player.

But the boom is more than 1 player. Or more than just high end. How have $0.50 unwanted and undesirable Auto cards gone up to $2,3,4 now? That doesn't happen b/c overall interest is going down.... You have to have a big move towards sports in general to do that. Sports Betting gaining traction nationally IMO is helping not hurting. The numbers and the timing tell you that

Sure it is. Let's not be silly.
Some think Gary V is the source for the NBA boom. I wouldn't give him all the credit, but he sure put more eyeballs on NBA cards than betting on NBA games did.

[joe73]

Originally Posted by Rjk214

Wasn't it MGM that took in its largest monthly haul ever in November? All while ratings have "slipped". I bet on almost every game daily but yet I don't watch any of them. I know many many people that do the same now as well. There are ways to watch/listen/get live updates for sports that aren't included in ratings.

There doesn't have to be a link to it at least not right away. But history would tell you the more eyes that hit something and can be linked as how I mention they will be should be easy to put together!

Again, where's the evidence for "more eyes"? Are people who never cared about baseball now watching because they can bet on it legally, or are the gamblers who used to bet illegally with bookies now betting legally on their iPhones? It seems like it's the latter.