1983 PSA 10 HOF Rookies all climbing

[discodanman45]

Originally Posted by LVDan

I seriously doubt a big flood of 10s on the tougher cards is eminent. PSA graders are absolutely aware of card values and have a history of getting stricter as time goes by and values rise, at least recently. I’m not saying deserving gems won’t be awarded, more that borderline copies will more often than not get nines.


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If anyone thinks there are tons of PSA 10's or even potential PSA 9 raw versions left of this card out there they haven't tried to buy a raw version of this card in awhile. Go to eBay and search for raw versions of this card and you will see why the population reports won't move much. The majority of the Topps versions available now that look good are vending box cards and they typically have issues that make a PSA 8 grade difficult.

[wcardguy]

Wow that OPC posted above would go for a bundle now.

I'd also prob guess that there aren't tons more 10s out there waiting to be graded. 83 Topps isn't the worst of the era for centering, but it isn't great either. I have a few each of these cards raw, and they just bounce all over the place.

[cardsin47]

FYI - ‘83 Topps BBCE Wax around $1100 a pop!

[mfw13]

Originally Posted by rfgilles

The Gem rates are really low on the Big 3 (<5%) and I imagine PSA could be even stricter with recent submissions of these cards.

Statistically, you can't trust "gem rates", because resubs do not get taken out of the pop report. If the same card gets resubbed five times, it shows up as five different cards in the pop report, so the population of 8's and 9's becomes grossly inflated. Whatever the "gem rate" appears to be, in reality it's probably double that.

Also, 1983 Topps had a pretty large print run...conservatively let's say that 1,000,000 of each card were printed. Even with a 5% gem rate, that's 50,000 "gem" cards....not exactly scarce!

[rfgilles]

Nobody submits a card 5 times. Your argument makes no sense for a doubling of gem rates. Nor did Topps print a million cards of each player in the 83 set. And what percentage of cards from a set produced 38 years ago are still in gradable shape that haven’t been submitted already?

[ThoseBackPages]

Originally Posted by mfw13

Statistically, you can't trust "gem rates", because resubs do not get taken out of the pop report. If the same card gets resubbed five times, it shows up as five different cards in the pop report, so the population of 8's and 9's becomes grossly inflated. Whatever the "gem rate" appears to be, in reality it's probably double that.

Also, 1983 Topps had a pretty large print run...conservatively let's say that 1,000,000 of each card were printed. Even with a 5% gem rate, that's 50,000 "gem" cards....not exactly scarce!

PSA 10s do not get resubbed

[gododgersfan]

This set has been so undervalued for such a long time. Loved the set as kid collecting in the early 80s. Kudos to folks that got in early on the PSA 10 RCs and able to cash in. I have a few PSA 9s that I am happy to keep in my collection.

[mfw13]

Originally Posted by rfgilles

Nobody submits a card 5 times.

You're very naive if you think people don't play the resub game. Happens all the time, especially with the price gaps between higher grades increasing.

It's not uncommon at all for people to resubmit a card multiple times until they get lucky and get their grade bumped up to what they were looking for.

Lots of the PSA 10's out there were originally PSA 9's that got resubbed multiple times until some grader gave them a 10.

Likewise with PSA 8's getting bumped up to 8.5's or 9's.

[jduds]

Originally Posted by mfw13

Statistically, you can't trust "gem rates", because resubs do not get taken out of the pop report. If the same card gets resubbed five times, it shows up as five different cards in the pop report, so the population of 8's and 9's becomes grossly inflated. Whatever the "gem rate" appears to be, in reality it's probably double that.

Also, 1983 Topps had a pretty large print run...conservatively let's say that 1,000,000 of each card were printed. Even with a 5% gem rate, that's 50,000 "gem" cards....not exactly scarce!

You are missing the huge fact that cards are not submitted randomly, but are submitted when they look good. The population as a whole is bound to have a far lower gem rate than the submitted population. Cards that are 10s are much more likely to have been submitted already. The idea that there is a vast trove of ungraded 1983 gems is simply unfounded. These are cards that have been popular for grading for decades at this point. There are certainly more, but I wouldn't look for a huge population spike.

[cardsin47]

Originally Posted by mfw13

Statistically, that's 50,000 "gem" cards....not exactly scarce!

I think this is off a hair —- by about 49,000 +++

[jduds]

Originally Posted by mfw13

You're very naive if you think people don't play the resub game. Happens all the time, especially with the price gaps between higher grades increasing.

It's not uncommon at all for people to resubmit a card multiple times until they get lucky and get their grade bumped up to what they were looking for.

Lots of the PSA 10's out there were originally PSA 9's that got resubbed multiple times until some grader gave them a 10.

Likewise with PSA 8's getting bumped up to 8.5's or 9's.

I can see trying once or twice for exceptional looking cards, but between turnaround time and grading cost I really doubt many cards get submitted by the same person 5 times. I do think there are people who buy with an eye to upgrading grades, but imagine this is a very small amount of the total submissions.

[mfw13]

Originally Posted by jduds

You are missing the huge fact that cards are not submitted randomly, but are submitted when they look good. The population as a whole is bound to have a far lower gem rate than the submitted population. Cards that are 10s are much more likely to have been submitted already. The idea that there is a vast trove of ungraded 1983 gems is simply unfounded. These are cards that have been popular for grading for decades at this point. There are certainly more, but I wouldn't look for a huge population spike.

I get your point, but there is still a LOT of unopened product, as well as a lot of cards still sitting around in people's collections. I've probably got 10+ each of Boggs/Gwynn/Sandberg/Ripken RC's across the three producers (Topps/Fleer/Donruss) that I haven't looked at in years, since until recently, they weren't anything special.

And I'm sure there are plenty of other collectors with copies stashed away as well. These cards were NOT and have not even been scarce...they have been a dime a dozen (proverbially) as long as I can remember.

In 1983, the printing presses were going at full speed...

[cardsin47]

Originally Posted by mfw13

And I'm sure there are plenty of other collectors with copies stashed away as well. These cards were NOT and have not even been scarce...they have been a dime a dozen (proverbially) as long as I can remember.

In 1983, the printing presses were going at full speed...

Yes.... but as for PSA Gem Mint 10’s —- very Scarce. The focus by Topps was clearly quantity, not quality with this Product

[jduds]

Originally Posted by mfw13

I get your point, but there is still a LOT of unopened product, as well as a lot of cards still sitting around in people's collections. I've probably got 10+ each of Boggs/Gwynn/Sandberg/Ripken RC's across the three producers (Topps/Fleer/Donruss) that I haven't looked at in years, since until recently, they weren't anything special.

And I'm sure there are plenty of other collectors with copies stashed away as well. These cards were NOT and have not even been scarce...they have been a dime a dozen (proverbially) as long as I can remember.

In 1983, the printing presses were going at full speed...

They may not have been scarce, but they have always been easy sellers. These are simply not new hobby discoveries even with the price rise. Good copies have been graded for decades. Sure some folks have some stashed away (I've got some), but realistically the gem rate for what is still out there will be substantially lower due to added time and the odds of people already having graded gem cards(mine would be lucky to get 7s). The more likely culprit to slow down the boom in these cards are already graded cards that will be brought out of storage boxes and sold. As prices go up, people are more likely to sell. We haven't hit that phase yet though. If anything, copies at market price seem to be non-existent for a lot of 1980s HOFs right now.

[rfgilles]

Originally Posted by jduds

They may not have been scarce, but they have always been easy sellers. These are simply not new hobby discoveries even with the price rise. Good copies have been graded for decades. Sure some folks have some stashed away (I've got some), but realistically the gem rate for what is still out there will be substantially lower due to added time and the odds of people already having graded gem cards(mine would be lucky to get 7s). The more likely culprit to slow down the boom in these cards are already graded cards that will be brought out of storage boxes and sold. As prices go up, people are more likely to sell. We haven't hit that phase yet though. If anything, copies at market price seem to be non-existent for a lot of 1980s HOFs right now.

I have no idea what your overall point is. You previously said that gem rates are double what is reported by PSA, and that there are 50,000 Gems available. Now you are saying the opposite.

[mfw13]

Originally Posted by rfgilles

I have no idea what your overall point is. You previously said that gem rates are double what is reported by PSA, and that there are 50,000 Gems available. Now you are saying the opposite.

No...he didn't say that....I did, based the fact that resubs bloat the population of 8's and 9's because they aren't removed from the pop reports and on the assumption that Topps printed at least a million copies of each 1983 Topps card.

[rfgilles]

Originally Posted by mfw13

No...he didn't say that....I did, based the fact that resubs bloat the population of 8's and 9's because they aren't removed from the pop reports and on the assumption that Topps printed at least a million copies of each 1983 Topps card.

My apologies to jduds. And your assumptions are baseless.

[coachnip13]

Originally Posted by mfw13

These will not be scarce in high grades once everyone and their grandma submits them....may take them a year or two to get their card back from PSA, though.

Except that 1983 boxes aren't cheap.

[wcardguy]

Unopened 83 isn't cheap, and it's not like it's falling out of the trees - I see five wax boxes available on eBay right now. I doubt many if any are being cracked in the hopes of nailing a 10 on one of three cards, in a set that isn't great for centering.

[coachnip13]

Originally Posted by wcardguy

Unopened 83 isn't cheap, and it's not like it's falling out of the trees - I see five wax boxes available on eBay right now. I doubt many if any are being cracked in the hopes of nailing a 10 on one of three cards, in a set that isn't great for centering.

Exactly. People buying sealed 1983 wax aren't busting and looking for PSA 10's. That's a buy and hold.

[sportzking]

Haven't checked prices on these in awhile, guess it's no surprise since everything is going crazy. Still missing the big three in Fleer, time to grab some 9's.

[PLAYED4NOTHING]

Originally Posted by Gamecock

Yea it’s incredible what’s happening with them. If this wasn’t my PC, I’d think about letting these go.


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My Gosh that O-Pee-Chee must be an absolute goldmine about now...Unreal card man

[ThoseBackPages]

love me some OPC

[PDCCollectibles]

Anyone know if PSA or BGS take into account the 'bend, curve' these can have?

[Carrbeaz]

Since posting this thread just a few days ago most of the players I mentioned have doubled from their prices when I originally posted. Wow