We are only at the beginning of this market boom....

[Triple B]

Originally Posted by Maxcd

We use words to convey meaning. Words have denotative meaning for a reason.

Merriam Webster's definition is:

a pursuit outside one's regular occupation engaged in especially for relaxation

The two examples you used for enjoy cards were flipping, and making big whale purchases. It does not sound like you enjoy cardboard, just that you enjoy making money. Nothing is wrong with enjoying that, but it's not in line with what hobbies universally are classified as. Based off what you described, you're essentially chasing endorphin rushes and cash.

You have a very childlike understanding of the term "hobby" and it's adorable.

When I was a child, I used to buy 35 cent packs of gum that came with bonus hockey cards and I would trade with my friends to build the set. Card companies have since started selling hits over sets and in some cases don't even have base cards to build sets with, just products with nothing but hits. Can you imagine THAT?

I have grown up and got a job and had a family. My occupation is working for my city which pays well and brings me some joy. However, I get great joy and relaxation from buying one baseball card and grading it and flipping it for money to buy another card that I want.

You're free to enjoy your hobby as you see fit. Unfortunately for you and your sense of entitlement, so am I.

[rwperu34]

Originally Posted by pewe

The interesting thing to compare this to is the total sports card market size growth (revenue) in the same period. It went from about $5B at the beginning of that period to somewhere in the $12-13B last year, and an expectation of $15B this year.

So it implies a pretty steep supply/demand equilibrium curve.

If the total market revenue drops, it would also imply a pretty steep ascension the other direction. Particularly if it is tied to increased supply given more buyers who are short holders.


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That's interesting to say the least. I wonder if it's people selling singles at a profit to buy more wax at a higher price?

[rwperu34]

Originally Posted by NeedChapmans

It's this one for me that that rings most true. And I've argued this point w/ many over the years and yet another reason why this isn't going anywhere for a bit.

"Goldin acknowledges that prices will inevitably fluctuate. But he believes supply will remain in check, particularly on the upper end of the market. "The difference between cards and stock [is] nobody loves a stock," he said. "Some people who buy these cards, to get them to sell it is like getting them to take off an arm.""

That is hilarious.

[rwperu34]

Originally Posted by Gradek

You realize (or maybe you are too young to remember), but typically when you started seeing mainstream news articles like this (tech stocks in the late 90s or house flipping in 2006) you were at the end of the boom.

This was my first thought as well. Oh crap, a CNN article. We're doomed!

[rwperu34]

Originally Posted by Rjk214

Did the card market "bubble" crash today?

Wondering for a friend

I thought it did a couple of days ago when I won a bunch of auctions, but now I'm back to losing so probably not.

[pewe]

Originally Posted by rwperu34

That's interesting to say the least. I wonder if it's people selling singles at a profit to buy more wax at a higher price?

This revenue includes singles. I believe the total wax revenue is a minority of it... like 10%.


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[pewe]

Originally Posted by rwperu34

I thought it did a couple of days ago when I won a bunch of auctions, but now I'm back to losing so probably not.

Can’t wait to see what you got!

I, too, managed two wins late this week.

It shocked me but then I went back to underbidder on everything else


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[Publius]

What people fail to see is that cards are fad right now. The hardcore collectors, like the men and women on this forum, will always be active in the space, but a lot of novice new entrants are coming in. I doubt they will stay once a new fad becomes culturally relevant. All cards are being talked about now, not just sports. All of a sudden people are talking about Marvel cards from the early 90s. My dad ran a comic shop in the early 90s and I have a closet full of boxes and boxes of comic book cards, especially Marvel and DC cards. At this rate, my unopened Upper Deck Valiant Comics wax boxes are going to be worth something. As TBP sagely advises, it will come crashing down at some point.

[NYRE2PECT]

If a collector and a flipper had a "private" moment in this bubble, would they produce a:

Folector

Or a

Colipper

I'm so confused.

[pewe]

Originally Posted by NYRE2PECT

If a collector and a flipper had a "private" moment in this bubble, would they produce a:

Folector

Or a

Colipper

I'm so confused.

I thought they were crowned “clector”???


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[NYRE2PECT]

Originally Posted by pewe

I thought they were crowned “clecter”???


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[Neal]

Like most of us, I will buy and then sell when a new shiny toy catches my eye or I decide on a new pursuit - my PC is an everchanging thing. I can't buy everything, and neither can most. I also can't own everything if I want to continue, and neither can most.

So, after careful consideration, here is my official "take" .... GET THAT WANT LIST FILLED NOW!! This isn't a bubble fellas. Pick out a few cards that you really (at present) want to own and within your financial means. Then do it.

[pewe]

Originally Posted by Neal

Like most of us, I will buy and then sell when a new shiny toy catches my eye or I decide on a new pursuit - my PC is an everchanging thing. I can't buy everything, and neither can most. I also can't own everything if I want to continue, and neither can most.

So, after careful consideration, here is my official "take" .... GET THAT WANT LIST FILLED NOW!! This isn't a bubble fellas. Pick out a few cards that you really (at present) want to own and within your financial means. Then do it.

Buy MOAR!!!

We are in control of our destiny! Drive up prices with concerted and coordinated effort

Has the call gone out on Reddit???


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[Neal]

A few will continue to rise and many won't. Most will drop like a lead zeppelin

[mfw13]

Originally Posted by Maxcd

Collecting cards is a hobby, flipping is a mechanism to get funds for the hobby.

But most of these flippers are in it only for the profit. They do not collect in any meaningful way.

And plenty of people sell cards from their collection to fund new purchases...that's not flipping.

[Publius]

The last bubble: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NFzRG0hpMy4

Speaks for itself

[Snakeonia]

Originally Posted by Publius

The last bubble: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NFzRG0hpMy4

Speaks for itself

Im not seeing anyone on my tv selling cards, nor am I seeing jordan coming back to the court. Ergo not like last time.


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[pewe]

Originally Posted by Snakeonia

Im not seeing anyone on my tv selling cards, nor am I seeing jordan coming back to the court. Ergo not like last time.


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I guess you don’t hang on the contemporary version of cable TV??? Facebook, Instagram, YouTube, etc...

Or pay attention to the latest rage of heavily hyped biopics of players like Jordan?

Otherwise you might feel overwhelmed with the folks hawking them


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[Boredlawyer]

History repeats itself. If you're betting on sports cards for longer than 12 months, you're betting on the MLB not repeating history with another labor stoppage. I wouldn't be concerned, if we didn't have the worst commissioner in MLB history and have player-owner relations at a 30 year low.

Unfortunately, there's no clear way to price this in the market. If MLB has a season long strike, so prices drop 10%? 60%? What are the odds of a strike? Better than 50%?

[noaskiecards]

All the extra stimulus money is going into
Stocks
Real estate
Sports cards
Art and collectibles

But more than that is the money saved from gas, commuting and entertainment, etc.

Eventually this will go down as people go to movies, casinos, water parks, sporting events and concerts, cruises, restaurants and there will probably a correction in the card market.

But it will never go back to pre covid levels, maybe late 2020 levels which is funny to say how prices were much different in the olden days back in vintage Dec 2020 compared to the new boom of Feb 2021


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[ScooterMcRibs]

Originally Posted by JohnnyHatesJazz

have paintings been securitized? If not why not? And why should we expect securitization of sports cards to take off?

Terrible take. Paintings are unique items, sports cards are not. If my fund owns 1,000 graded gem mint Griffey Star Rookie cards then I can value the fund and process buys / sells based on most recent sales of identical items.

If my fund owns 5 Picasso paintings or whatever then what is my fund worth? Painting A sold for $5 million one month ago, painting B sold for $50 million two months ago, I think my painting is similar to A but I'm not sure because until I sell I don't really know what a buyer is willing to pay?

Originally Posted by Boredlawyer

History repeats itself. If you're betting on sports cards for longer than 12 months, you're betting on the MLB not repeating history with another labor stoppage. I wouldn't be concerned, if we didn't have the worst commissioner in MLB history and have player-owner relations at a 30 year low.

Unfortunately, there's no clear way to price this in the market. If MLB has a season long strike, so prices drop 10%? 60%? What are the odds of a strike? Better than 50%?

Strike is 100% irrelevant for players that have retired. This is why you buy Griffey, Gwynn, Valenzuela. BLUE CHIPS.

[Maxcd]

Originally Posted by Triple B

You have a very childlike understanding of the term "hobby" and it's adorable.

When I was a child, I used to buy 35 cent packs of gum that came with bonus hockey cards and I would trade with my friends to build the set. Card companies have since started selling hits over sets and in some cases don't even have base cards to build sets with, just products with nothing but hits. Can you imagine THAT?

I have grown up and got a job and had a family. My occupation is working for my city which pays well and brings me some joy. However, I get great joy and relaxation from buying one baseball card and grading it and flipping it for money to buy another card that I want.

You're free to enjoy your hobby as you see fit. Unfortunately for you and your sense of entitlement, so am I.

More often than not, the child is the one who resorts to berating.

It's not entitlement, it's quite literally the dictionary definition of what a hobby is. Chasing profits solely for the sake of doing so is not a hobby, regardless of the context.

Not all rectangles are squares; not all things that are enjoyed are hobbies.

Originally Posted by mfw13

But most of these flippers are in it only for the profit. They do not collect in any meaningful way.

And plenty of people sell cards from their collection to fund new purchases...that's not flipping.

I wouldn't say these flippers are enjoying a hobby, they just enjoy making money.

I like making money too and I make money from cards, but I wouldn't consider that aspect to be a hobby.

[pewe]

Originally Posted by ScooterMcRibs

Strike is 100% irrelevant for players that have retired. This is why you buy Griffey, Gwynn, Valenzuela. BLUE CHIPS.

Well... if a strike means folks lose interest in baseball as a whole, it might not be great for retired players, either


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[monkeymcgee]

Originally Posted by Maxcd

Not all rectangles are squares; not all things that are enjoyed are hobbies.

I'm glad we have hobby gatekeepers. It's very important work to run the purity tests.

The hobby aspect is learning about the cards, researching players, sorting, organizing, talking to others about the cards, etc. Did you buy the card/wax to sell it later? Why does that matter?

I would take the Pepsi challenge with Merriam Webster to go over how I spend my time with cards and have them make the call on if I meet the definition of a hobby. It ain't my job. It ain't worth my hourly rate. It is a way to spend my free time and make money down the road.

[Boredlawyer]

Originally Posted by ScooterMcRibs

Terrible take. Paintings are unique items, sports cards are not. If my fund owns 1,000 graded gem mint Griffey Star Rookie cards then I can value the fund and process buys / sells based on most recent sales of identical items.

If my fund owns 5 Picasso paintings or whatever then what is my fund worth? Painting A sold for $5 million one month ago, painting B sold for $50 million two months ago, I think my painting is similar to A but I'm not sure because until I sell I don't really know what a buyer is willing to pay?




Strike is 100% irrelevant for players that have retired. This is why you buy Griffey, Gwynn, Valenzuela. BLUE CHIPS.

Valenzuela? That's like saying, people will track the all time greats; Aaron, Griffey, Vic Wertz.

You were also going on about how IRA's will be allocated 2-3% (which would be comparable to real estate or energy) to sports cards, and that Topps Attax will revolutionize the hobby.

I also feel like you're making these statements tongue in cheek to see if anyone pushes back, to be honest.