Ultra Modern cards are down but for how long...

[jcardstore]

Originally Posted by nocontest

I briefly mentioned the about this in an earlier post. I mean lets just take one example from that list. Jokic vs Zion Williamson. NBA allstar votes aren't a popularity contest and the voters cannot be broken down. There is no transparency and you cant verify the demographic of the votes. Are we to believe Jokic is 3x MORE popular than Zion?

Yes. There's this thing called playing basketball that has nothing to do with card hype

[nocontest]

Originally Posted by jcardstore

Yes. There's this thing called playing basketball that has nothing to do with card hype

Playing basketball and being popular are not the same. Jokic has been a beast over the past 2 years and would get my vote over Zion any day as it stands. But to say Jokic is more popular than Zion simply because he has millions more NBA All Star votes is a poor argument

[tjforce]

Originally Posted by ThePackLife

If I'm not mistaken weren't fans rigging the All-Star ballots a few years back trying to get Boban in? Not sure which player it was exactly but if that's the case, you can't go off all star votes. lol

I'm not gonna argue with you though. You might actually be 100% correct. I have no real numbers to back up my thoughts and opinions so you WIN. lol

It's one data point.

And no, you can't forever negate something because things like that have happened before.

But look back at all-star voting for any of the past 6-7 years. Curry is always near the top any year he's been healthy.

That's a pretty good indicator of popularity.

[Justin7]

Originally Posted by nocontest

I briefly mentioned the about this in an earlier post. I mean lets just take one example from that list. Jokic vs Zion Williamson. NBA allstar votes aren't a popularity contest and the voters cannot be broken down. There is no transparency and you cant verify the demographic of the votes. Are we to believe Jokic is 3x MORE popular than Zion?

Of course not, anyone telling you otherwise is stupid. Zion has 5.5 mil followers on instagram alone. Jokic's impressions and mentions on twitter, fb, and insta aren't even close. Not even in the same realm of popularity.

[jcardstore]

Originally Posted by Justin7

Of course not, anyone telling you otherwise is stupid. Zion has 5.5 mil followers on instagram alone. Jokic's impressions and mentions on twitter, fb, and insta aren't even close. Not even in the same realm of popularity.

Except one is way better at playing basketball than the other one.

[tjforce]

Another data point I quickly googled:

Steph Curry had the NBA's top selling jersey in 2016, 2017, and 2018. He's still in the top 4, despite having never changed teams his entire career.

[Justin7]

This thread is being hijacked with popularity debates, yo.

TL;DR
Fractional share ownership = more money in cards
not just hedge funds but retail investors

Infastructure being built = attention on hobby

Attention on hobby = money

Money = greed


However, a concern is the infrastructure will make the market TOO efficient and it won't be nearly as fun because of less opportunities & higher threshold of wealth for entry which long-term is worse than if we just had Ebay.

[nocontest]

Originally Posted by tjforce

Another data point I quickly googled:

Steph Curry had the NBA's top selling jersey in 2016, 2017, and 2018. He's still in the top 4, despite having never changed teams his entire career.

This is interesting to point out. The NBA store takes the liberty of tracking and ranking the most popular jerseys by sales. Here is the current data for 2020 :

https://store.nba.com/top-selling-je...429-1493771407


Luka is 2nd to only Lebron James right now. I was looking for 2019 but cannot find. I wouldn't be surprised if Luka was above Steph this year as well. I'm not arguing Steph's popularity or likeability as hes right at the top. But I feel like these past few years I've seen a shift which continues to grow.

[2010GBPackers]

Steph may be more popular than Luka

Luka may be more popular than Steph

It really doesn't matter. Steph is wildly popular AND has a HOF career, therefore, he has a floor holding up his prices.

Luka, at this point, is all trajectory, conjecture, and speculation. (And that is not a shot at Luka; he's great) Yes, he's popular, but at this point he also has the trajectory of Russell Westbrook, which is HOF great, but not even close enough to sustain the prices he is commanding.

[tjforce]

Originally Posted by nocontest

This is interesting to point out. The NBA store takes the liberty of tracking and ranking the most popular jerseys by sales. Here is the current data for 2020 :

https://store.nba.com/top-selling-je...429-1493771407


Luka is 2nd to only Lebron James right now. I was looking for 2019 but cannot find. I wouldn't be surprised if Luka was above Steph this year as well. I'm not arguing Steph's popularity or likeability as hes right at the top. But I feel like these past few years I've seen a shift which continues to grow.

Yes, Steph still top 4 after 11-12 years in the same jersey.

[nocontest]

Originally Posted by 2010GBPackers

Steph may be more popular than Luka

Luka may be more popular than Steph

It really doesn't matter. Steph is wildly popular AND has a HOF career, therefore, he has a floor holding up his prices.

Luka, at this point, is all trajectory, conjecture, and speculation. (And that is not a shot at Luka; he's great) Yes, he's popular, but at this point he also has the trajectory of Russell Westbrook, which is HOF great, but not even close enough to sustain the prices he is commanding.

Best post I've read surrounding the Steph/Luka discussion. Completely agree with this sentiment. And although we can't use jersey sales as a reliable metric it does still indicate a shift. The fact that Steph's jersey was the most sold in 16,17, and 18' but is now pushed out of that ranking because of Luka does say something. It just shows the interest in him. We can't use the hypothetical of where jersey sales will be in 10 years, but we can look at the present and admit there has been a change and who caused it.

[ThePackLife]

To get back on the topic of the thread... Not sure exactly what's going on but for the past few days I've been getting insta-declined on Ultra-Modern cards I've submitted offers on. Granted these offers are based off this current "dip" and depreciated prices. Maybe this is the beginning of an upward trend or a plateau atleast. My offers were for Luka, Zion and Tyler cards.

[Spacemanspif]

some good responses here, I don't have time to respond to jfan right now but I'll get to it tonight as the platform / marketplace conversation is interesting.

As for Steph vs Luka, y'all are insane if you think Luka even approaches Steph's popularity, both here in the US or abroad. Every star needs years of sustained success to actually become a household name amongst casuals. Don't let BO hype threads cloud your judgment of what's happening out in the public. I've been to Warriors games in several other cities and there are little kids wearing Curry jerseys in every one of them. And yes, people in Asia love him as well. Luka has a ways to go before reaching that level of popularity.

[nocontest]

Originally Posted by Spacemanspif

some good responses here, I don't have time to respond to jfan right now but I'll get to it tonight as the platform / marketplace conversation is interesting.

As for Steph vs Luka, y'all are insane if you think Luka even approaches Steph's popularity, both here in the US or abroad. Every star needs years of sustained success to actually become a household name amongst casuals. Don't let BO hype threads cloud your judgment of what's happening out in the public. I've been to Warriors games in several other cities and there are little kids wearing Curry jerseys in every one of them. And yes, people in Asia love him as well. Luka has a ways to go before reaching that level of popularity.

Popularity might not have been the right word in the discussion. I would have to agree Steph is more popular, but Luka has drawn more attention to the sport right now

[Above the Rim]

Quite a bit of rumbling that Wall Street getting into the card market. What are the odds they are scrambling for Modern ? i.e. Zion, Luka and the like.

What are the odds Wall Street more interested in high end vintage? T206 Cobb's, Goudey Ruth's, early Ted Williams/Dimaggio, high end Aaron/Mays, etc.

I would bet Wall Street and such going for big time vintage. Sure they may dabble in Modern, but bulk of money they want into Vintage.

I could be wrong, but am in no hurry to unload my T206's, assorted Ruth & Gehrigs, Williams/Dimaggio, even Aaron/Mays.

Modern is very tricky to try time current market. Top may already be in, maybe not. I feel still much headroom for vintage.

[Justin7]

Originally Posted by ThePackLife

To get back on the topic of the thread... Not sure exactly what's going on but for the past few days I've been getting insta-declined on Ultra-Modern cards I've submitted offers on. Granted these offers are based off this current "dip" and depreciated prices. Maybe this is the beginning of an upward trend or a plateau atleast. My offers were for Luka, Zion and Tyler cards.

I already noticed ultra-modern is starting to rebound.

It starts on the low-end. For example, Zion hoops rookies are starting to sell for $130-140. They were $95-100 at the start of the month. I think they even dipped below that.

Not sure if that's particular to Zion or in all the ultra-modern as I am not buying many other ultra-modern guys.

[Justin7]

Originally Posted by Above the Rim

Quite a bit of rumbling that Wall Street getting into the card market. What are the odds they are scrambling for Modern ? i.e. Zion, Luka and the like.

What are the odds Wall Street more interested in high end vintage? T206 Cobb's, Goudey Ruth's, early Ted Williams/Dimaggio, high end Aaron/Mays, etc.

I would bet Wall Street and such going for big time vintage. Sure they may dabble in Modern, but bulk of money they want into Vintage.

I could be wrong, but am in no hurry to unload my T206's, assorted Ruth & Gehrigs, Williams/Dimaggio, even Aaron/Mays.

Modern is very tricky to try time current market. Top may already be in, maybe not. I feel still much headroom for vintage.

But we know exactly what they're going for because a lot of the information is public and a lot of them are at card shows & we talk about who they're buying. Yes they're buying ultra-modern silver prizm's of Luka/Zion as well as modern HOFers as well as vintage...

[ThePackLife]

Originally Posted by Spacemanspif

some good responses here, I don't have time to respond to jfan right now but I'll get to it tonight as the platform / marketplace conversation is interesting.

As for Steph vs Luka, y'all are insane if you think Luka even approaches Steph's popularity, both here in the US or abroad. Every star needs years of sustained success to actually become a household name amongst casuals. Don't let BO hype threads cloud your judgment of what's happening out in the public. I've been to Warriors games in several other cities and there are little kids wearing Curry jerseys in every one of them. And yes, people in Asia love him as well. Luka has a ways to go before reaching that level of popularity.

Spacemanspif, you've been dropping consistent gems in here. I really appreciate that man. Thank you

[ThePackLife]

Originally Posted by Justin7

I already noticed ultra-modern is starting to rebound.

It starts on the low-end. For example, Zion hoops rookies are starting to sell for $130-140. They were $95-100 at the start of the month. I think they even dipped below that.

Not sure if that's particular to Zion or in all the ultra-modern as I am not buying many other ultra-modern guys.

Glad to see I'm not the only one... Crazy stuff for sure tho. Haven't had this much fun especially on ebay in a minute. lol

[gomiamigo]

It's amazing how many people itt and at BO think they are RoaringKitty and not the bagholders who paid 10-50x what he paid for $gme and got left holding the bag with 5, 6, 7-figure losses.

If you stocked up on MJ, Lebron, Curry, vintage years ago, you're crushing it, congrats. If you bought dozens of Luka psa 10 silvers at 400, same.

But most people here will turn out to be bagholders. Esp if they started buying recently. Trees don't grow to the sky. Congrats to those who cashed out some/all and bought houses, paid for their kids colleges already and so on.

Sure, Durant may spend a few grand on his own cards here or there and his buddies, but they're spending 40m on goldin. Card of his just aren't big enough nor liquid enough to support inst'l buying.

People here keep insisting it's UHNW that's driving the price hikes without a shred of evidence behind that claim. VegasDick or JayVee or whomever != the UHNW market.

A couple posters nailed it when they said a lot of new entrants got into cards because they're stuck at home, bored, can't vacation, can't do Vegas, can't do whatever, and they got a few stimulus checks so why not? But they're exiting the market as soon as we re-open and faster when they see they're losing money.

Of course a few will stay, but the vast majority it will be sayonara cardbois.

[KhalDrogo]

Originally Posted by gomiamigo

People here keep insisting it's UHNW that's driving the price hikes without a shred of evidence behind that claim. VegasDick or JayVee or whomever != the UHNW market.

I just listen to people who deal in that end of the spectrum

I am not a magician. I just continue to follow the big boys.

[gomiamigo]

And I don't understand why people are so down on vintage [long-term], as if Mantle, Mays, Ruth, Cobb Gehrig, Aaron, Clemente aren't incredibly highly valued when the vast majority of collectors never saw them play.

I only have two vintage cards, I was going to collect all the major rookies but missed my window, so almost all of my cards are post 2007 so my benefit is not huge.

[tommyboiazn23]

The real red flag indicator for me is that seeing all my friends jump in when they watched me for years collect and didn't care for it until now lol. For me, that's a sign to step back and start selling a little bit cause the hot peak as they say doesn't last forever lol

[gomiamigo]

Originally Posted by KhalDrogo

I just listen to people who deal in that end of the spectrum

Okay, sure. But you offer zero evidence again. Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence, not 'Trust me, Bubba.'

I've dealt with that end of the spectrum as my FT career for going on 25 years now.

Are there a few very rich guys in NY and SF/LA buying cards? Sure. But that's not driving the market.

Yeah, paying $750k for an MJ rookie came from a rich individual [or fund], but that's not the overall card market.

And anyone who works with the UHNW for a living can tell you they are famous for driving a hard bargain, not for overpaying during a bubble.

C.f. the MJ psa 10 that has already dropped in price.


I'll agree in advance that if the UHNW storm into this market AND stay, then prices will go higher for a while. Very unlikely and even so, every market has big corrections but esp illiquid, thinly traded ones like cards and art.

[Above the Rim]

Ordinary middle class Joe American like you and me are the ones more responsible (not totally responsible) for Modern valuations. It is now to the point that "we" can't afford the big time vintage. So many are Debbie Downers on vintage because we are now priced out.

Years ago I accumulated vintage, have held. Now I can't drop $10.k plus on a Cobb or similar.

Brings me to next point - Pokemon baby! Average Joe can still collect/afford Pokemon. The whole world loves Pokemon. Buy the right stuff now, reap big rewards later for the long term hold. Plus it is what the young kids really want - fun times collecting with your kids. Gets some FUN back into it and not break the bank.