Michael Jordan RC, PSA 10, shatters 100k !!!

[Brent72]

The market is going to do what it's going to do and not a damn thing said on this forum is going to change that. The constant back and forth over this is getting tiresome.

[GOATcards]

Originally Posted by Slvnumber2

Some pretty crazy prices there paid on the 8th, I figured they must have had some PWCC-A/E/S designation and when I checked them out on eBay I saw the BIN price but how did you find out the actual sale price?

Ref:
https://www.ebay.com/itm/1986-Fleer-...4AAOSwN2pgHbL7

https://www.ebay.com/itm/1986-Fleer-...EAAOSwkydgGr~f

[GOATcards]

Originally Posted by Willikn

..and a PSA 10 sold last night for $40k.

You just signed up this month... right? So, what exactly are you after here? If you want to say who you used to be so we can see all of your previous breakdowns that would be better.

I say again, everyone knew there would be a pullback. What is missing is worthwhile analysis. I'll provide an example:

Two weeks ago, maybe a little less than that, a 1990 Fleer PSA 10 was hovering in the $900 range. The 1994 SP Championship Playoff Heroes Die Cut PSA 10, that Kefskala showed us, was actually less. In no world did that make an ounce of sense. Our advantage over the locusts that are flowing from one card group to the next is that we know where things should land eventually because we know where things have always been. Move ahead of the curve.

Pointing out a pullback, when you weren't here predicting one is as useless as tits on a nun man. It appears to me that you are a smart guy. Use them smarts to find the diamonds in the rough. Those locusts are back in the 90's again and we have a base Topps Garnett selling last night for $2,469! Exactly one month ago? $400. So, instead of the chicken little after that fact, what to do with that information moving forward?

I've not been on here before, and I found this particular thread after some google search probably for some card I'm trying to find for sale, can't remember what, landed on page 43 or so of the thread, read the next 60 pages or so because I found it interesting, and signed up because I wanted to comment on things I find interesting about the hobby.

I was big into the hobby in the late '80s to early '90s, into MJ RCs (Star and Fleer) especially in the early '90s, got interested again with the late '90s run-up after grading got big and the dotcom bubble (coinciding roughly with MJ's 2nd retirement). Then that market busted and when I could I acquired a PSA 9 #57 some years back for a small fraction of the current price. For the most part my level of interest has followed a lot of the hype, so it's part being part of the lemming/crowd I admit, and also some inherent interest in team pro sports and the GOATs in particular.

As for what I "predicted," I predicted with my own MJ 9/$$$ by selling at $50K a just about a month ago right after a perfectly centered one had hit $60K, and that was a huge spike from just before (when it was in the $40-45K range). For all I could tell, that $60K was the height of the run-up, but that turned out to be more like around $80-90K. So I miscalculated I guess, as to where the turn would be. Now they're back to around $60-65K. It's a crazy ride I've not seen even during the dotcom-period run-up.

It looks like a lot of you folks have been in more for the long haul with more detailed knowledge of how these markets fluctuate (I had no idea about the '16 run-up that's been mentioned here), where the "floors" might be expected to be, etc. so I suppose there are things I can learn from you all here.

As I say, I just comment on or ask about things I find interesting. Mostly MJ-related more than anything. Lotta 6s happening on 6-14-98, huh? Probably 6 of 'em lol.

I was hoping I could jump on a graded '84 Court Kings MJ for about a quarter of what they are now, and that was only a month ago, but couldn't do that without using proceeds from the #57. Well, that didn't work out so well as far as getting the Court Kings goes, and I'm not about to dump all that big a chuck of the #57 proceeds into more cards at today's prices. So I the ship probably has sailed on the Star cards. (Four-letter word is all I have to say about that.) I figured a month ago - correctly in hindsight - the same thing might happen with the Court Kings and other Star cards that happened when I jumped on a #101 back in '92 at $1600 when the Beckett high-column value was something like $1100, and that zoomed pretty quickly to $4500. (I'd have graded mine about a 6.5 although I grade more tough than most. Anyway, that $4500 high-column value wasn't what I could get for an EX-MT+, but that was the number that'd be in my head, dumb younger me.) Too f'ing bad the market tanked on those after the Shop at Home scandal. This hobby is filled with a lot of BS. I've made some dough overall but also felt suckered at times (which I guess goes with the territory of not being a long-haul, full-time hobby observer and being too damn trusting).

I was basically just sitting on that 9 for years, checking in on the eBay markets once in a while. (As others here have said, it's probably the last card to leave a collection, other than a few nostalgic double-digit-priced items from long ago that survived this or that selling-off, things like '87 Fleer Bo Jackson, '86TT Bonds, '88 SLU MJ in NM-MT which has now also bubbled up into triple digits so that's kinda nice. At some point my show-bought '89 UD #1s and pack-pulled '89 Donruss Griffeys were sold off.) As I pointed out in another comment, I didn't even notice the great run-up of '20-21 until I saw the SMR hitting $15K. Then sold after seeing over 8x run-up in under a year, and now I'm a bit bummed about not having a Star MJ card at whatever I'd consider a decent price (not a sizable chunk of the $50K), I do now have a higher-grade '87 Sticker and a "low-end" LBJ rookie, and the rest going into safe/predictable/boring low-yield securities in this COVID environment.

That MJ 9 was the best dough I ever made, for sure. I feel lucky overall. (Just a bit bummed out about the Star MJs pretty much going out of reach - now, do I want to go after a #10 '86 "The Future" or something like that in lesser grade? Not sure. And not nearly as bummed out from having to part with a M101 Ruth RC but I still made a nice return on that through 2 recessions, and it was kinda cool enough having one for as long as I did. And is he even really the baseball GOAT for sure, given the era he played in? Better for sure than Mays or Trout?) And it's okay admiring some nice but ridiculously expensive cardboard from afar. Maybe someday....

Well I've rambled.

[GOATcards]

And how badly did I really want a 5x7 card anyway? Probably sour grapes talking....

[GOATcards]

Originally Posted by Slvnumber2

What difference does it make if they joined a month ago or have been a long time member. I have been here for years and pointed out the Jordan rookie is the GOAT rookie along with the unhealthy rise in the Jordan rookie in 8’s and that it was a bad time to buy. Backed mine up with facts and data, but since it did not fit the Jordan is hitting a million $$ next week narrative the attack dogs came out - go back and look through the posts and you can see who you are. Not a good look for some of you.



Everyone did not call for a pullback - “Jordan will hit $48k in an 8 and it will be a million card were spouted on here.” After the fact we heard we did not say now we said eventually. Revisionist history was prevalent, but the excuses of these were poor examples and that is why they dropped. Guess all the ugly ones came out at the same time which is why rookie 8’s and 9’s, 1988 PSA 9’s, 1990 9’s and 10’s are all dropping hard. I simply said to hold up to buy and don’t buy into the fever and pumping. Not hating but providing caution since I saw the same thing in 2016 with cards. After February 11th not a single PSA 8 has gone over $20k. How come when so many on here were saying it was too the moon![IMG][/IMG]

I like to keep it light-hearted and positive. (Grown men collecting cardboard . . . needs some perspective. Still, I covet whatever is the GOATiest cards of the GOATiest players lol. Some a-holes are hoarding LBJ Gold Refractors from the rest of us. ) I know, I know, there's now some really serious money in this hobby/industry, but still I don't see a reason to get all worked up over someone saying something's gonna tank while others saying they would love to see their favorite card hit $1M or $10M or whatever. I like the different perspectives and some of it is just a hoot.

[GOATcards]

Originally Posted by kefskala

Attachment 502178Attachment 502179

loved it at 29k, loved it at 20k, loved it at 50k, loved it at 68k loved it at 98k,
loved it at 125k, loved it at 225k, loved it at 762k, loved it at 600k and will love it if it goes down to 250k again.....what is your point...you won the pissing contest..congrats...u nailed it..wow you win the Goldin ring....the board was so nice with out u here yesterday, we all made up....u are like the kid that no one liked.....

Enjoy your orange-jersey #57s

Orange #57s, weird-face #101s, green Kobe chromes, '33 Goudey #53 and #149 Ruth illustrations that don't even really look like him. Ultimate LBJ cards that all but 50 or 250 people at the very most are kept from having. Cardboard. Great fun.

[GOATcards]

Originally Posted by Willikn

2. I can't recall one sensible person here claiming that Jan 2021 was the right time to buy any Jordan #57. More a question of, must I sell now? You are bringing up points with zero direct opposition. However..

There was the distinct vibe of just that, from whoever was saying it's gonna hit $1M. Heck, with all the rich celebrities apparently now flooding into the market, the 10s could still do just that. Not money I'd be betting with unless I had it to blow. Only 320 people at most can have one of these (edit: and there's only 6 BGS 10s and maybe only a few strong 9.5s, the ones you aren't seeing brought to market much) and there are a lot more MJ fans than that out there.

You definitely strike me as a sharp person. I'd like to know what one SHOULD buy on Feb 19, 2021 since we all appear to know what not to buy today. Not one of us knows the answer to that question. It is a fun way to cap the analysis.

'84 Star Court Kings #26 in BGS 9 or higher grade, if you can find a willing seller? (It means buying a 5x7, but still.) Ruth RCs? Wagners? LBJ /50 /99 or /250 holy-grail cards? The Tom Brady, Gretzky, Messi, Ali, Tiger Woods ultimate holy grail whatevers? Barring a recession I see those only going up even in the nearer term, and going up huge long-term. Edit: not sure yet on Mike Trout items; if he has a career-ending injury right now, or has a career decline like Pujols, I don't think he gets GOAT status. Going based on the first decade of his career, he might well be the best player since Ruth. After era-adjustments his first decade could be GOAT. Bonds in the '90s, pre-Hulking-up on whatever he hulked up on, or Pujols in the '00s, would probably be the closest comps. (And that doesn't tell you all that much about card values. Who wants Bonds cards? I have that ungraded NM-MT-ish junk-era 86TT which I don't mind keeping since, hey, he did win 3 MVPs etc. before Hulk-time and at least he's not all Hulked-up in those rookie cards. But shelling out big bucks on them? Hah. Anyway, no one here has heard of Bonds/Pujols/Trout since this is a basketball group. )

[Slvnumber2]

Originally Posted by GOATcards

Some pretty crazy prices there paid on the 8th, I figured they must have had some PWCC-A/E/S designation and when I checked them out on eBay I saw the BIN price but how did you find out the actual sale price?

Ref:
https://www.ebay.com/itm/1986-Fleer-...4AAOSwN2pgHbL7

https://www.ebay.com/itm/1986-Fleer-...EAAOSwkydgGr~f

130 point.com will show the actual sale price on a BIN. Really good site for finding pricing especially on modern stuff and unopened boxes....

[Willikn]

Originally Posted by GOATcards

'84 Star Court Kings #26 in BGS 9 or higher grade, if you can find a willing seller? (It means buying a 5x7, but still.) Ruth RCs? Wagners? LBJ /50 /99 or /250 holy-grail cards? The Tom Brady, Gretzky, Messi, Ali, Tiger Woods ultimate holy grail whatevers? Barring a recession I see those only going up even in the nearer term, and going up huge long-term.

Counterpoint. There are a number of reasons why I don't like any Star Co. production, especially that one, but a simple reason for avoiding it .. the price explosion has already happened.

My opinion, and it is nothing more than that, is to target Jordan items that have yet to realize enormous growth. Cards that have a strong following but for whatever reason have been ignored to date. The big clue here is that these cards have become ghosts lately. There aren't any at auction much less 10 of them ending every day of the week. This assumes Jordan is your target. Of the guys you named, Ali would be my first choice. Boxing in general leaves a lot of nice options.

Just one keyboard warrior's thoughts. I've a ton of them and most will probably be wrong.

[interestingcool]

Seems like PSA 8s have settled in the 13k - 20k range, depending on strength of the copy.

[tedwilliamsfan]

Originally Posted by interestingcool

Seems like PSA 8s have settled in the 13k - 20k range, depending on strength of the copy.

I've noticed this also, as I am still looking at pricing every day. The variance in prices is definitely tied to the aesthetics of the individual card. There have been so many more PSA 8's for sale the last few weeks. The demand is there, but also the supply.

[agsstructures]

87 #59 also have settled quite a bit especially the 8’s and 9’s.

[interestingcool]

Originally Posted by tedwilliamsfan

I've noticed this also, as I am still looking at pricing every day. The variance in prices is definitely tied to the aesthetics of the individual card. There have been so many more PSA 8's for sale the last few weeks. The demand is there, but also the supply.

I actually think there's been a little too much supply lately, if you can believe it. I think a lot of people saw the peaking prices and wanted to jump in, many too late. Once people start to hold again I think prices will go back up.

[Brent72]

Originally Posted by interestingcool

I actually think there's been a little too much supply lately, if you can believe it. I think a lot of people saw the peaking prices and wanted to jump in, many too late. Once people start to hold again I think prices will go back up.

Exactly. Ebay literally got flooded with his cards when prices started skyrocketing after the PSA 10 sales. Things have definitely cooled off now and I think rather than selling low a lot of people will just hold on to their cards causing supply to dwindle again.

[Slvnumber2]

I feel badly for the people that got sucked into all the hype and suckered into dropping $27-30k on a Jordan PSA 8 a few weeks ago. Those people are down 40-50% in such a short time and will probably not see those prices again for a long time. To think some were saying the PSA 8’s would hit $48k. Looks like in a couple of weeks the PSA 9’s will hit $48k first - who would have taken that bet a few weeks ago ��

[KB81]

Folks wanted to jump on coat tails of PSA 10s - many made $$ selling non-10s. It will happen. It always happens.

They just better be prepared for returns because we all know that there are slick buyers out there who have zero issue with doing a return when prices drop soon after paying $xx,xxx for a card.

[Slvnumber2]

Originally Posted by KB81

Folks wanted to jump on coat tails of PSA 10s - many made $$ selling non-10s. It will happen. It always happens.

They just better be prepared for returns because we all know that there are slick buyers out there who have zero issue with doing a return when prices drop soon after paying $xx,xxx for a card.

Great points. There will be a lot of returns in the next couple of weeks of 8’s and 9’s with the price drop - should not happen but eBay allows it. If these hit $10k in a couple of weeks would not be surprised.

Keep an eye out for people moving on to the next “flavor” to pump. You are going to see a “renewed interest” in Iverson, Duncan, and a few others over the next couple of weeks. People have been buying them up quietly and now promoting them so they can sell for big $$.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

[Brent72]

Originally Posted by Slvnumber2

I feel badly for the people that got sucked into all the hype and suckered into dropping $27-30k on a Jordan PSA 8 a few weeks ago. Those people are down 40-50% in such a short time and will probably not see those prices again for a long time. To think some were saying the PSA 8’s would hit $48k. Looks like in a couple of weeks the PSA 9’s will hit $48k first - who would have taken that bet a few weeks ago ��

Point me to someone who said the PSA 8 was going to hit $48k. I never heard a single person in here say it was going that high. Also, I hope you'll come back in here to say you're wrong when the 9 isn't at that price in two weeks.

[Slvnumber2]

Originally Posted by Brent72

Point me to someone who said the PSA 8 was going to hit $48k. I never heard a single person in here say it was going that high. Also, I hope you'll come back in here to say you're wrong when the 9 isn't at that price in two weeks.

Don’t know why you are getting so butthurt over the Jordan prices. You can go look back through the threads during the auction mania when people were pumping it and saying this will be a million dollar card and 8’s will see $48k. Easy to go back and try to change your stance when it is tanking price wise. I stood my ground and said exactly where I thought the card would go and people were getting duped price wise on Jordan rookies at $25-30k for an 8.

You are more than welcome to go back and search through the posts and thread to find the $48k comment and million dollar comment. Those were not made up and they were made by posters in this thread Amazing how people pumped the cards multiple times daily when it was in the Goldin auction, but man everyone has been quiet now. Last two sold for $53k in a PSA 9 - maybe it hits $48k or it doesn’t. It is not going the right direction.

[vintg]

Originally Posted by Slvnumber2

Don’t know why you are getting so butthurt over the Jordan prices. You can go look back through the threads during the auction mania when people were pumping it and saying this will be a million dollar card and 8’s will see $48k. Easy to go back and try to change your stance when it is tanking price wise. I stood my ground and said exactly where I thought the card would go and people were getting duped price wise on Jordan rookies at $25-30k for an 8.

You are more than welcome to go back and search through the posts and thread to find the $48k comment and million dollar comment. Those were not made up and they were made by posters in this thread Amazing how people pumped the cards multiple times daily when it was in the Goldin auction, but man everyone has been quiet now. Last two sold for $53k in a PSA 9 - maybe it hits $48k or it doesn’t. It is not going the right direction.

the nicest way I can put it, is, we agree to disagree.

no "pump" from me , rather EXCITEMENT. naturally, its more exciting when it goes UP. LOL


you never answered my previous question, though:

what say you if the folks who bought for $25k, hold it for three years, and its doubled or tripled ??????

not everybody can precisely time the peaks and valleys, of course.

[sportsyard]

The population of 8's is just so high, can't see them climbing above $20k unless the 10's go really really high. Jordan RC's in 10 and 9 are where its at

[Brent72]

Originally Posted by Slvnumber2

Don’t know why you are getting so butthurt over the Jordan prices.

I'm in no way "butthurt", pal. Just sick of your doom and gloom posts saying the same damn thing over and over in this thread.

And the 10 will easily become a million dollar card. You can come back and apologize when you're proven wrong about that.

[Slvnumber2]

Not doom and gloom - sick of pumpers and snake oil salesmen trying to dupe people who don’t know better.



Guess it is not hitting $80-100k like you said earlier in the posts. Think you were off about $30-40k on your prediction. Or the million dollar suggestion from another poster that night for a 10 or $150k for a 9. You guys posted it - either you are pumpers or just don’t know cards.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

[Brent72]

As you can clearly see from my post, I asked if a number like that was possible given the usual conversion rate between 9s and 10s. I also said it was much more likely to be in the lower range than it was the 28-30% gap that is typical between those grades.

I see you get off picking and choosing comments trying to make yourself look smart, but I find you endlessly annoying and I'm not going to waste any more of my time trying to have a logical discussion with you. If any forum ever needed an Ignore option it's definitely this one!

[GOATcards]

You guys know the pop reports on this in each grade. There are nearly 3,000 9s, and at around $55K a pop right now you're talking some $165M in total market value. That's about 9x what it was a year ago. So where has all that new money come from, and what's it going to do in the future? The next 9 back fresh from PSA will be put up on eBay, and who is coming up with that next $55K? How many more Mint condition #57s are out there yet to be graded? I heard (but can't verify) that some 100K sets were produced, and around 33K of them have been graded by the big three graders, according to pop reports, and we know a good portion of those have been cracked for crossover attempts.

I suppose someone who has followed this market closely for a long time has enough of sense of the total-system perspective to tell what's signal and what's noise from a short-term pump-and-dump. A great many market participants do not, and many of those are easily snookered.

I can only go on intuitive impressions from past run-ups and dumps. In 3-5 years I could see the 10s doing whatever the long-time observers saw in '16. The new floor is probably around $250K but no one has any idea whether it'll see another run-up in the next 5 years, so it could be anywhere between $250K and in the millions. The 9s probably have new floor around 1/10 of that, and the 8s around 1/3 of the 9s, so do the math. Oddly enough, the current floor for 1s are around $4500, roughly 1/3 of a medium-level 8 or 1/4 of a high-level 8, and the prices don't increase all that much by grade level until after about the 5s (around $7500 or so right now).

All I know is, I'm waiting for the price of the 87 sticker in PSA 9 to come down further before buying in. I suppose I'd have to see what its earlier price floor was to guess what its new floor is now, but I'm assuming it's at least $2500. Not sure how patient I can be until it gets to that level, if it does.