Michael Jordan RC, PSA 10, shatters 100k !!!

[dumars2001]

Originally Posted by jnmcards

Strange post here. I assume you're pretty new to collecting, as the same cards you are talking about were selling for about 20% of what they are now just a few short years ago (or in some cases months).

When a card jumps 500% and then goes down, but is still up 300%, it's still a relative gain, which is all that matters in the end. I can guarantee with certainty that we will never, ever see the same floors that were present even 6 months ago on this stuff.

Very well said! I didn't think of it that why, but it makes perfect sense.

I am relatively new to collecting cards, but I did collect heavily during the junk wax box era and jumped back into card collecting about 6 months ago. I was lucky to pick up my jordan rookie card for a fairly low price, compared to what they are selling for now.

I have been collecting toys (starwars, gijoe, etc and video games for years though) and I can positively say that other non-card collectors are all aware of the "holy grail" Michael Jordan Fleer rookie card and want to own one (like myself), even though we weren't particularly collecting cards.

Just a little side note for everybody here, the video game collecting world, especially retro (Nes, Snes, Sega, etc) world is also exploding big time right now, not like cards (yet), but systems, games, Mario, etc items have all went way up in value recently! Some of you should jump in now, before you get priced out, lol!!

[kefskala]

Originally Posted by FT35

I agree with you!

However, I was told a few days ago to expect Jordan cards to return to pre-2016 prices soon.

I also read that post, just like minimal wage will go back to 3.25 an hour. You cant sit here and argue with everyone. I would think 60-70% of the naysayer that post here don't own a Jordan of value. as they say misery enjoys company.
Just do what you do and go about your day,,,,

[dumars2001]

For people that own this card, we want sellers to stop auctioning off the card and set their selling price for the card at a near spike buy it now price (this would cause potential buyers to have to buy the card at said price, if they want it bad enough and of course, have the money to buy one).

For the people that don't own the card yet, but are on the lookout for one, you want there to be as many sellers as possible to keep listing the card as an auction to flood the market and naturally lower the price.

Basically, we have collectors on both sides of this fence (either you own the card and want the value to keep going up or you don't own the card and want the value to decline, so you can pick one up BUT after you do pick one up, you will jump over to the other side of the fence! LOL) and that is probably what is causing some of the back and forth animosity in some of the posts here.

So selfishly, I must admit, I wish all you sellers will stop auctioning off your Jordan Fleer rookie card and either hold on to your card or set it at near spike level buy it nows (Lol)! I should also add that, if the price continues to slowly decline in price/value, I might try to pick another one up.

Anyways, I am very happy to have found this forum. This is a fun time to be in the hobby! So many good people on this forum with so much knowledge. I sincerely thank all of you, for your thoughts, insight, posts and love of card collecting! Happy collecting to everybody out there, try to keep this whole card collecting hobby in proper perspective and much respect/good health to all of you on here and your families.

[MattMiller]

The biggest Athlete in History, with most iconic cards as well will not drop much.. sure ebbs/flow but 2016 levels is beyond crazy...move on

[GeechQuest]

Originally Posted by MattMiller

The biggest Athlete in History, with most iconic cards as well will not drop much.. sure ebbs/flow but 2016 levels is beyond crazy...move on

It’s Summer 2016 level was 30% higher than its December 2019 level...

If you know you know....

[Willikn]

Originally Posted by GeechQuest

It’s Summer 2016 level was 30% higher than its December 2019 level...

If you know you know....

That lasted maybe a few months. Three at the most. There was also a very sharp rise and decline. Most important, it impacted only a few cards. What makes this situation completely different is that the entire hobby, every single card, in every sport as well as non-sports, has realized a massive gain. It has also lasted far longer and continues right now.

I'm not completely stupid. This is not a 100% organic rise. It also doesn't seem to matter. I'd recommend poking holes in Dec 19 pricing for a Topps paper LeBron RC, Durant RC, Shaq RC, etc. Those things were hardly hobby stalwarts for a decade but have risen more than 30x in some cases when compared to 12/19 pricing. If anything, it made no sense for Fleer #57 to sit stagnant for as long as it did.

At least with Fleer #57 it appears more natural given that it has taken the entire 1986 Fleer set up with it. All 1992 Topps cards remain the same caliber of trash that they were two years ago.. minus Shaq.

[GeechQuest]

Originally Posted by Willikn

That lasted maybe a few months. Three at the most. There was also a very sharp rise and decline. Most important, it impacted only a few cards. What makes this situation completely different is that the entire hobby, every single card, in every sport as well as non-sports, has realized a massive gain. It has also lasted far longer and continues right now.

I'm not completely stupid. This is not a 100% organic rise. It also doesn't seem to matter. I'd recommend poking holes in Dec 19 pricing for a Topps paper LeBron RC, Durant RC, Shaq RC, etc. Those things were hardly hobby stalwarts for a decade but have risen more than 30x in some cases when compared to 12/19 pricing. If anything, it made no sense for Fleer #57 to sit stagnant for as long as it did.

At least with Fleer #57 it appears more natural given that it has taken the entire 1986 Fleer set up with it. All 1992 Topps cards remain the same caliber of trash that they were two years ago.. minus Shaq.

All true. I'm speaking to the #57 specifically though.

It's meteoric rise lasted 3-4 months in 2016. The vintage baseball spike (some cards still have not recovered) lasted roughly 6-9 that year.

We don't know where the exact takeoff price of the #57 is unfortunately. What I mean by that, is we can't really determine some of the organic natural buying vs. inorganic FOMO buying. We don't know if were 3-6-9 months into the Jordan spike? It's been fairly parabolic for a while now.

Was the takeoff at $100K? $50K? 250K? We don't know and because we don't know we have no idea where the actual floor is.

The only reason I care about the #57 and would like hard data on a floor (which we had until Covid) is because it truly is the measuring stick for all other basketball cards in the hobby. Every card is truly a market unto itself, but #57 is kind of the barometer.

[kefskala]

Originally Posted by Willikn

That lasted maybe a few months. Three at the most. There was also a very sharp rise and decline. Most important, it impacted only a few cards. What makes this situation completely different is that the entire hobby, every single card, in every sport as well as non-sports, has realized a massive gain. It has also lasted far longer and continues right now.

I'm not completely stupid. This is not a 100% organic rise. It also doesn't seem to matter. I'd recommend poking holes in Dec 19 pricing for a Topps paper LeBron RC, Durant RC, Shaq RC, etc. Those things were hardly hobby stalwarts for a decade but have risen more than 30x in some cases when compared to 12/19 pricing. If anything, it made no sense for Fleer #57 to sit stagnant for as long as it did.

At least with Fleer #57 it appears more natural given that it has taken the entire 1986 Fleer set up with it. All 1992 Topps cards remain the same caliber of trash that they were two years ago.. minus Shaq.

I’m sure you have seen the pop report for 1986 fleer psa 10’s... about 20% under 100, about 85% under 200. This is one of the most iconic sets of basketball. To be able to buy any psa 10 for 70.00 until this past December was pure robbery. Even with so many sealed cases 80% of the cards are off centered. Like you said made no sense for #57 to be stagnant and these cards in the set to be so inexpensive. finally gotten the Recognition they deserve......there are over 350 registered on Psa website that are collecting this set. Granted not all are going after 10’s but it shows the love for this set...

[kefskala]

Originally Posted by GeechQuest

All

The only reason I care about the #57 and would like hard data on a floor (which we had until Covid) is because it truly is the measuring stick for all other basketball cards in the hobby. Every card is truly a market unto itself, but #57 is kind of the barometer.

So if the jordan let’s say settles at 500k for 10 months. Do you actually think this card like you said is a market within its self will affect the modern panini market? Or the 90’s market? The panini modern market has cooled off, and so has some of the vintage but still a lot higher then the last summer. Just curious about this. Thank u

[GeechQuest]

Originally Posted by kefskala

So if the jordan let’s say settles at 500k for 10 months. Do you actually think this card like you said is a market within its self will affect the modern panini market? Or the 90’s market? The panini modern market has cooled off, and so has some of the vintage but still a lot higher then December. Just curious about this. Thank u

Micro level, no.

Macro level, yes.

It's easy to justify pricing on modern players because Jordan is the measuring stick. I guess Lebron is tied closely as well.

Short terms swings can happen in any segment of the hobby, but long term/big picture as the Jordan #57 goes, the hobby tends to follow.

If the #57 sold for $100 lets say, then no Panini ultra modern would eclipse that price long-term (you may see a FOMO spike above the #57 but it wouldn't sustain).

So lets say the Jordan settles around $500K in 6 months. All cards will lag behind, but will find a baseline and settle as well congruent to the #57. None of this happens immediately so you can exploit inefficiencies in the market at all times, but long term these trends should hold.

All of these are just my opinions, and I'm also an idiot.

[Willikn]

Originally Posted by GeechQuest

The only reason I care about the #57 and would like hard data on a floor

Not gonna happen any time soon. This hobby explosion is like nothing we've ever seen for so many reasons. Perhaps the biggest, things are happening in reverse. The cards we see for sale on Ebay, multiple auctions ending every day of every week, those are the cards setting the bar. For the first time, probably ever, Fleer #57 wasn't the pace car.

Before we know a true floor on that card we'll probably need a floor for the things the blew up first. I'm exaggerating, but if a LeBron wrinkled white suit RC is $250,000, it is the most common LeBron RC available, what does that mean for a Fleer #57? That's actually where we are. That's what started the Fleer #57 explosion more than anything.

[GeechQuest]

Originally Posted by Willikn

Not gonna happen any time soon. This hobby explosion is like nothing we've ever seen for so many reasons. Perhaps the biggest, things are happening in reverse. The cards we see for sale on Ebay, multiple auctions ending every day of every week, those are the cards setting the bar. For the first time, probably ever, Fleer #57 wasn't the pace car.

Before we know a true floor on that card we'll probably need a floor for the things the blew up first. I'm exaggerating, but if a LeBron wrinkled white suit RC is $250,000, it is the most common LeBron RC available, what does that mean for a Fleer #57? That's actually where we are. That's what started the Fleer #57 explosion more than anything.

Makes sense. I also think it's where you chart the explosion.

I remember cards all dipping when Covid and lockdowns were announced (for about 2 weeks) except for Jordan stuff, but TLD was on the horizon as well.

#57 went up, Rally had the offering, and then more modern lagged behind. Modern spiked up into September, then Vintage took off, then we had the preseason hype thing of Trae and his ilk, then #57 went into orbit.

So I don't know if the explosion happened when the Jordan went from $30K-$100K before the NBA Bubble playoffs started OR if the explosion happened currently where we went ultra-parabolic from $100K to $750K. Possibly both?

[jnmcards]

I think what we've been seeing here with the 57 is just a massive (and overdue) correction to align it with some of the crazy stupid modern prices. Much like we saw with the 52T Mantle back in the mid-90's.

The REAL interesting card for me is the 101. Given the rarity, XRC status, increased notoriety, etc. I honestly cannot predict where that card will land, as there really is no precedent (the 51B Mantle is close, but there are actually more pop of that than the 52T). If you own one of those, then you may be holding a legit retirement plan, regardless of condition.

[sportsyard]

Originally Posted by jnmcards

I think what we've been seeing here with the 57 is just a massive (and overdue) correction to align it with some of the crazy stupid modern prices. Much like we saw with the 52T Mantle back in the mid-90's.

The REAL interesting card for me is the 101. Given the rarity, XRC status, increased notoriety, etc. I honestly cannot predict where that card will land, as there really is no precedent (the 51B Mantle is close, but there are actually more pop of that than the 52T). If you own one of those, then you may be holding a legit retirement plan, regardless of condition.

85 Nike has only 100 or so PSA 10's as well. Iconic image. It's an interesting one as well as the XRC

[Willikn]

Originally Posted by GeechQuest

So I don't know if the explosion happened when the Jordan went from $30K-$100K before the NBA Bubble playoffs started OR if the explosion happened currently where we went ultra-parabolic from $100K to $750K. Possibly both?

Absolutely both.

More outrageous example. 1996 Topps paper Kobe as it realized three separate explosions and is plummeting again right now. The first one is obvious and no one here thought that sustainable. Then in May of 2020 10s jumped from $1,000 to $5,000 in a matter of weeks. I was on here calling it a ruse. Roughly two weeks ago it blew up again topping $10k. Now back down to $7k.

As this yo-yo continues I can't envision a real floor for cards that were legendary prior to COVID.

[Diana1984]

Originally Posted by jnmcards

I think what we've been seeing here with the 57 is just a massive (and overdue) correction to align it with some of the crazy stupid modern prices. Much like we saw with the 52T Mantle back in the mid-90's.

The REAL interesting card for me is the 101. Given the rarity, XRC status, increased notoriety, etc. I honestly cannot predict where that card will land, as there really is no precedent (the 51B Mantle is close, but there are actually more pop of that than the 52T). If you own one of those, then you may be holding a legit retirement plan, regardless of condition.

This is absolutely correct. Whats fascinating is this card has been steadily increasing, but is no where near where the price should be. Once enough collectors figure that out, todays prices of the 101 will look like absolute steals.

[GeechQuest]

Originally Posted by Willikn

As this yo-yo continues I can't envision a real floor for cards that were legendary prior to COVID.

Yeah I get that. It’s just hard to wrap my head around because the majority of these cards weren’t collected for the longest time. Kobe Topps paper is a prime example. Pretty much and modern base card was lot fodder on eBay. I forget how many Kobe Topps paper I sold last year, but it was a solid amount and they all came in 100 card Kobe lots I’d buy.

It’s just really hard for someone like me to accept this new normal and forecast the staying power of certain segments that historically have no power whatsoever. Today’s “legendary” or “iconic” cards weren’t legendary or iconic for decades.

As always, I’m also an idiot.

[kefskala]

Originally Posted by GeechQuest

Micro level, no.


All of these are just my opinions, and I'm also an idiot.

HA! love the disclaimer...without a doubt the two outliers that sold for 732k come out of left field and no one expected that. All thou the past few auctions and the three 57's that are currently being auctioned off seems to have found a base of 600K..again this is only about 10 sales but it is a strong base of 6 million dollars that is being exchanged. And i dont want to hear that it is shilled or not paid for that is old already. I personally believe people wanted something new to invest in other then baseball, well maybe strong words because im sure there are purists here but new generation wants to create new waves...Heritage and goldin will both be setting new records again this coming month...what more can be said

[GeechQuest]

Originally Posted by kefskala

HA! love the disclaimer...without a doubt the two outliers that sold for 732k come out of left field and no one expected that. All thou the past few auctions and the three 57's that are currently being auctioned off seems to have found a base of 600K..again this is only about 10 sales but it is a strong base of 6 million dollars that is being exchanged. And i dont want to hear that it is shilled or not paid for that is old already. I personally believe people wanted something new to invest in other then baseball, well maybe strong words because im sure there are purists here but new generation wants to create new waves...Heritage and goldin will both be setting new records again this coming month...what more can be said

It's also tough for me to trust KG because he's been caught being shady and shilling his auctions in the past in Federal court during the whole Mastro saga.

I'm more of a skeptic than most. When I see Timberland flexing his #57 on IG that he bought from Goldin, and Timberland is also investing in Goldin with The Chernin Group it raises my skepticism/cynicism.

As always, I reserve the right to be completely incorrect.

[kefskala]

Originally Posted by GeechQuest

It's also tough for me to trust KG because he's been caught being shady and shilling his auctions in the past in Federal court during the whole Mastro saga.

I'm more of a skeptic than most. When I see Timberland flexing his #57 on IG that he bought for Goldin, and Timberland also investing in Goldin with The Chernin Group it raises my skepticism/cynicism.

As always, I reserve the right to be completely incorrect.

total understood and all greatly appreciated. i was actually concerned with the 57 that was for sell on robert edwards auction last week. They run a tight ship. They are also not highly known as goldin and heritage, and a bigger baseball following. it was only sitting at 300k but also managed to break 600K..

[kefskala]

also one more point to touch on that no one has discussed, 57 hit a high of 230K in december which was unprecedent. I honestly thought the flood gates would open up and you would be seeing them for sale all over the place.

Then Januarys new highs of 730K, there will be about a total of ten sales for 57 that will conclude by march 6, over 500k, that is only about 3% of the float...

This says a lot about the type of collectors that are holding onto this card...obviously they don't need the money and believe the card will be going higher...this is also another logical angle to look at things....

[GeechQuest]

Originally Posted by kefskala

also one more point to touch on that no one has discussed, 57 hit a high of 230K in december which was unprecedent. I honestly thought the flood gates would open up and you would be seeing them for sale all over the place.

Then Januarys new highs of 730K, there will be about a total of ten sales for 57 that will conclude by march 6, over 500k, that is only about 3% of the float...

This says a lot about the type of collectors that are holding onto this card...obviously they don't need the money and believe the card will be going higher...this is also another logical angle to look at things....

Counterpoint (really just additional data):

Here are the PSA 10 sales through the years from January/February (along with the average sale price):

2015: 1 ($13.6K)
2016: 2 ($18.5K)
2017: 5 ($18.3K)
2018: 3 ($19K)
2019: 4 ($23.1K)
2020: 2 ($39.8K)
2021: 6 ($544,938K)

I know more sales will be coming, but this is just up to this point.

The first 2 months in 2021 have seen the same number of sales as 2019 and 2020 combined. Doesn't mean people aren't holding and not cashing in, but more people are cashing in than have before this early in the year.

There were 19 total sales in 2019 and 28 total sales in 2020. Will be interesting to see how many 2021 has.

[kefskala]

ok my counter to that is I know three people that purchased at card shows past three years and that data doesn't show up...the only reason this data work for 2020-21 now is because all were closed and everything is on line...also now no one is walking around with 500k in cash...talk about skewed data, unfortunately nothing really to compare to pre exisiting..would have been interesting

[GeechQuest]

Originally Posted by kefskala

ok my counter to that is I know three people that purchased at card shows past three years and that data doesn't show up...the only reason this data work for 2020-21 now is because all were closed and everything is on line...also now no one is walking around with 500k in cash...

True true.

I was in Dallas at the last card show though and saw a major bag. Kids walking around with 7 figures like it's a water bottle.

[Thirsty Whale]

Originally Posted by GeechQuest

True true.

I was in Dallas at the last card show though and saw a major bag. Kids walking around with 7 figures like it's a water bottle.

Not sure if it’s true, but I’ve heard in a podcast that there wasn’t any PSA 10s available at the Dallas card show, which was a little bit surprising to me.