NBA Top Shot - High Risk, High Reward?

[rysportguy]

Originally Posted by rifleman69

Yep, not every pack "wins". Although Top Shot sure acted like it did before March rolled around.

To be fair as recent as January there was packs that were sitting there that no one wanted. The fact that they are wins are because of the increase in demand, that isn't Topshot's fault. Essentially the choice is either for them to raise prices on packs and put more money in their pocket or keep packs the same and let the increase in value be seen by the pack buyers. The ideal situation is these pack buyers are collectors and they become more involved by getting these packs with great value but the problem is the flippers sniffed it out and are all over these.

[gamboooler]

Originally Posted by whodatbeastly16

People will complain. My $14 pack was amazing yesterday and then the Rising Stars was a bit of a letdown but I still love that I now own 9 moments. I didn't preorder that pack cause I was busy but I wish I had been able to. I do wish they had an all-rookie release with everyone in the lottery. I need some more Kira Lewis moments to pick from lol! I'll still probably see at least 3x return on my Rising Stars which is better than any other investment out there

Originally Posted by orion9578

It's like none of them have ever opened an actual box of cards before. If you only lose 50% of what you pay it's a pretty good day. Haha.

Has anyone ever took a stab at guessing how many on TS actually do physical cards? I'd guess less than 50%. It has to be with expectations like they have.

I'm very happy to buy $9 packs, $14 packs & $1,100 packs(Yes, I've bought a $1,100 pack on TS!) and make what I consider GOOD money for literally 0 work. Any time you can turn $9 into even $18 or $27, that is a good day. Let alone turning $14 into hundreds and 1k into 3k. Ridiculous to expect 50-100x your money every time you're lucky enough to get a pack.

Yep. EV is still going to be high, but there will be a lot more packs where you "only" breakeven compared to prior releases. I think we're headed for $2-3 moments at the bottom in the very near future. Don't think that's a bad thing, but we're coming from not too long ago where the biggest scrubs on the site were $20. 180k packs, 52 player checklist, 35k+ print runs... think those commons will get ugly fast.

I think they should expand the checklist rather than upping the print of specific moments, but I'm not calling the shots.

[dasiegel]

Originally Posted by rysportguy

Only way this marketplace shutdown is acceptable is if they have some legit new feature added. Maybe badges came early? That would be nice.

To have it down on the night of the ASG is a disaster. Could've been a big boost night.

[whodatbeastly16]

Holo Icon Challenge 2 extended for a day

[Eckstein197]

I’ve got a friend with a pack, he’s wondering if should sell or open it

What does everyone think? I think he should sell it, he wants that guaranteed profit versus risking the opening

[Bruvydsb]

I'm real curious what the RS values will be. Especially the ones included in the Edwards dunk challenge.

[ThePackLife]

So I keep seeing on Discord about the 100 Moments Club... Is this an actual thing? My goal was 100 Moments by summer anyway. lol

[n1nesports]

Originally Posted by ThePackLife

So I keep seeing on Discord about the 100 Moments Club... Is this an actual thing? My goal was 100 Moments by summer anyway. lol

lol isn't that club to just be able to reply to people's posts with emojis? Either way that discord is awful. Nothing but fanboys telling everyone to hold or regret selling cause everythings going to the mooooooooooon.

[n1nesports]

Originally Posted by Eckstein197

I’ve got a friend with a pack, he’s wondering if should sell or open it

What does everyone think? I think he should sell it, he wants that guaranteed profit versus risking the opening

If he can find a way to sell it where he wont get screwed over I'd probably say sell. I myself wouldn't feel comfortable selling a pack of those though, imagine someone opening it and filing a dispute!

[Vinny1984]

Originally Posted by n1nesports

lol isn't that club to just be able to reply to people's posts with emojis? Either way that discord is awful. Nothing but fanboys telling everyone to hold or regret selling cause everythings going to the mooooooooooon.

You’re missing the point. The big draw is your name turns YELLOW. Yeah, I was mind blown too.

But yeah if you open the discord, your day will be worse.

[ThePackLife]

Originally Posted by Vinny1984

You’re missing the point. The big draw is your name turns YELLOW. Yeah, I was mind blown too.

But yeah if you open the discord, your day will be worse.

So it is a thing! lol

I actually wouldn't be surprised if those type of accounts get preferential treatment down the line in regards to packs. If Dapper Labs and TS are really trying to push that "collectible" narrative then it makes sense to reward those type of accounts for that 100 moment achievement.

[ThePackLife]

Originally Posted by n1nesports

lol isn't that club to just be able to reply to people's posts with emojis? Either way that discord is awful. Nothing but fanboys telling everyone to hold or regret selling cause everythings going to the mooooooooooon.

Yeah their discord is wild. I'm only ever on there to see what the devs post.

[Vinny1984]

Originally Posted by ThePackLife

So it is a thing! lol

I actually wouldn't be surprised if those type of accounts get preferential treatment down the line in regards to packs. If Dapper Labs and TS are really trying to push that "collectible" narrative then it makes sense to reward those type of accounts for that 100 moment achievement.

All joking aside, I think you are spot on. It’s already started with the one moment required rare pack. Only a matter of time before they extend that. I would welcome that with open arms.

[NoleinJax]

Originally Posted by Eckstein197

I’ve got a friend with a pack, he’s wondering if should sell or open it

What does everyone think? I think he should sell it, he wants that guaranteed profit versus risking the opening

Sounds like you answered the question yourself. Why do so many people need help with decisions like these? Does he sweat every minor financial decision like this?

[ThePackLife]

Originally Posted by Vinny1984

All joking aside, I think you are spot on. It’s already started with the one moment required rare pack. Only a matter of time before they extend that. I would welcome that with open arms.

Yeah, I'd have no problem with it either. Now they just need to open up this marketplace so I can get to work on my own collection ASAP.

[Eckstein197]

Originally Posted by NoleinJax

Sounds like you answered the question yourself. Why do so many people need help with decisions like these? Does he sweat every minor financial decision like this?

I gave my opinion, I told him that but he still wasn't sure.

He's fairly new to TopShot, so he wasn't sure what the best decision was. What's wrong with him asking for multiple opinions?

[psochaps]

Let’s get this MP open!!
I’m sure Dapper will be overloaded today trying to purchase.

[Bruvydsb]

Like dealing with my west coast parent company (at work)

Nothing happens before Noon EST

[Birdanski]

Originally Posted by whodatbeastly16

Prolly like 3 grand

Any guess what a Morant Rising Stars 1100/2021 3 point shot would go for? Is that in the $2k range as well IF the marketplace ever opens up again? hahah

[omega145]

I don't see the big deal with the marketplace being down. The same people will show up as soon as its back up whenever that is. The company made 7 million in sales based on that last price drop. I'd say they are doing pretty well financially so far.

As far as the drama from people jumping in here who don't understand the concept, maybe just step back and listen to what people are saying and why they are enjoying it...some people need to be a little more open minded to grasp why this is successful so far. It's 2021, things change and technology is a big part of why we see evolution such as this.

Joined the drop and got around 35K in queue so luckily was able to pull a pack:
Wiseman RS dunk - 1519/2021
Beal SS layup - 4153/10000
Curry Base handles- 13921/35K+
Haliburton Dunk base - 23805/35K+
Sexton 3 PT base - 27781/35K+
Muscala 3PT base - 10164/12000
Nwora base LE 3PT - 2967/4000

[Eckstein197]

Originally Posted by omega145

I don't see the big deal with the marketplace being down. The same people will show up as soon as its back up whenever that is. The company made 7 million in sales based on that last price drop. I'd say they are doing pretty well financially so far.

As far as the drama from people jumping in here who don't understand the concept, maybe just step back and listen to what people are saying and why they are enjoying it...some people need to be a little more open minded to grasp why this is successful so far. It's 2021, things change and technology is a big part of why we see evolution such as this.

Joined the drop and got around 35K in queue so luckily was able to pull a pack:
Wiseman RS dunk - 1519/2021
Beal SS layup - 4153/10000
Curry Base handles- 13921/35K+
Haliburton Dunk base - 23805/35K+
Sexton 3 PT base - 27781/35K+
Muscala 3PT base - 10164/12000
Nwora base LE 3PT - 2967/4000

You lose the momentum from the pack drop. Now maybe it'll help with people undercutting each other, but that momentum can be massive

[D4B182]

Any thoughts on what the lower end players /2021 will sell for once the marketplace opens? The lower tier end Rising Stars /10k seem to all be over $100, so these should be quite a bit higher.

[Eckstein197]

Originally Posted by D4B182

Any thoughts on what the lower end players /2021 will sell for once the marketplace opens? The lower tier end Rising Stars /10k seem to all be over $100, so these should be quite a bit higher.

3-400 most likely, I don't see any of these (besides a couple bad posts by people not knowing the market) being around the 200 mark

I fully believe the Seeing Stars should be more but so many new people getting the pack as their first time and not knowing the market just chokeholded these cards. People just kept undercutting and never let this moments breathe and grow.

The rising stars, due to the higher price point, should not be choke holded as much as the seeing stars in the 14 dollar pack

[omega145]

Originally Posted by Eckstein197

You lose the momentum from the pack drop. Now maybe it'll help with people undercutting each other, but that momentum can be massive

What does that mean? What momentum? Won't the purchases and sales be the same even when the market comes back on?

[tier1dc]

Darren Rovell interview with WhaleShark_Pro

https://twitter.com/darrenrovell/sta...682431488?s=19

Peak 2021