Will Ultimate Collection ever overtake SPA for key rookies?

[Rorschach]

Price/value is determined by supply and demand. Not just supply.

It takes quite a while of collecting for a sub brand in a good brand to gain enough steam to become a brand as Young Guns or Future Watch Auto where it's widely collected. As k13 was asking, why did Prizm take a while? Same thing...in the sports that Panini produced cards for years and Prizm for years, that product was popular and collected. For other sports where they joined in more recently, it took longer for people to get behind collecting that brand. But the brand design was popular in baseball before it got into football/basketball.

Just because the same manufacturer made two cards, doesn't mean they are comparable. Brand and sub-brand can be absolutely huge in a card's credibility. Also, on a more subtle note, with SPA FWAs, the year and rookie class the card came in may also affect value. The loaded 05-06, 06-07, 07-08 years had widely collected rookie classes so more people exerted more demand on the fixed /999 supply. (Unlike YGs which often are almost printed to order and not of fixed supply.) That's may be why a raw Tavares SPA FWA is slightly worth less than a Tavares Ultimate Rookies...because few are building that set.

[k13]

Last Ultimate 9.5 bgs sold for ~20k usd

Higher than any 9.5 spa fwa by far.

[michaelvanek]

That was a rare bgs 9.5 as it had 3x 10s and 1 9 for subs. It was the only card .5 away from the bgs 10. There was also another 9.5 min subs on pwcc that sold for 9k usd and another private sale of a min sub went for 15k Canadian. Ovie, Crosby and Mcdavid definitely aren’t hurting in the ultimate market.


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[Inferno]

I keep seeing the Young Guns get trashed and people saying only SPA/Ultimate/high-end will matter in the future, etc. It's just not true. Young Guns are ACCESSIBLE to a vastly larger segment of collectors and that's why they are popular.

Obviously the serial numbered rookie auto stuff will sell for more. Nobody is arguing that. But when you get up to the top tier of players we're already looking at five figure prices and climbing. If you're rich enough to play in that sandbox then great. If you're lucky enough to own some of these cards prior to the boom then even better.

But for the other 95% of collectors who don't own these SPA and Cup and Ultimate RCs of the Crosby, McDavid, Ovie types and probably never will at this point, we may as well forget they even exist. They're in a different realm all together. So when a high end future watch sells for $15k and the masses can't afford that they will obviously go for the next best thing and right now that is the long standing hobby staple which is the Young Guns. And they can be found and bought many many times easier than the higher end stuff.

So to the people saying Young Guns are higher print and won't matter, what are you expecting? A McDavid FWA to someday sell for $100k but the YG has to drop to $1k or something and stay there forever? Never going to happen. Because the segment of collector who can actually afford that FWA is like 1% of the hobby, but the very massive majority who can't will turn to the ones they are more likely to afford. Print run is larger on YGs but so is the collector base chasing them because the high end stuff is already out of reach and will never be in reach again.

Context matters and saying only the high end stuff will matter in the future implies that the entire hobby will only be chasing these FWAs and whatever at five or six figure prices and everything else will be ignored into obscurity. We know that won't be the case unless we all become millionaires between now and then.

[michaelvanek]

Originally Posted by trask7

I think Ultimate is a sleeper. If Hockey starts picking up steam like the other sports, there will be a big price jump. I think SPA is a amazing but I would take a McDavid Ultimate /99 over /999,.

I have a PSA 8 McDavid Ultimate rc auto /99 and patch auto /99 BGS 9.5 and they are still a steal in my opinion. When is the last time you have seen the Ultimate /99?

When you say patch auto /99 are you talking cup? I think the last ultimate rookie that sold was 9-10 months ago now and sold to a guy who is hoarding them. Who knows how many he’s got but he bought that one and my bgs 9 and that was pretty much the last time I have seen an ultimate mcdavid. I do think the mcdavid ultimate was not as nice looking as the fwa but the rareness of it makes it desirable to me. Only 12 pop on the 9.5 side vs 209 fwa. That being said I have recently purchased a bgs 9 and 9.5 true gem plus fwa and the price difference was huge.

There is currently the only bgs 10 fwa on ebay and who knows this could maybe hit the 100k mark. It’s been up for not even 10 hours and it’s at 31k usd. Feel like deep pocket are going to get in a battle for this as I think it will be the most desirable fwa. I wonder if one of those companies selling shsres of cards will put money together to win this card? There’s something like 66 psa 10s and then 36 bgs 9.5s that are all 2 bumps away from a 10. This card is going to be interesting to watch.

I still think young guns are kinda junk but people have loved these things for a long time. I purchased my first yg in many years a few days ago and swore I would never pay today’s prices for a mcdavid but the new market got me. I really don’t see mcdavid being a bad investment even picking up his yg this late in the game. He is clearly the lebron of hockey. So I’m getting over the crazy prices of young guns altho they are not very limited.

The next thing that drives me nuts is psa vs bgs. I’m a bgs guy but the value of psa 10s is crushing a 9.5 bgs most of the time. I prefer the bgs holders as they are more solid. Psa look kinda cheep. The boring paper labels all look the same too. I feel like psa not having a 9.5 makes it easier to get a 10. Anyway this is getting off topic so that’s it for now.


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[k13]

Originally Posted by Inferno

I keep seeing the Young Guns get trashed and people saying only SPA/Ultimate/high-end will matter in the future, etc. It's just not true. Young Guns are ACCESSIBLE to a vastly larger segment of collectors and that's why they are popular.

Obviously the serial numbered rookie auto stuff will sell for more. Nobody is arguing that. But when you get up to the top tier of players we're already looking at five figure prices and climbing. If you're rich enough to play in that sandbox then great. If you're lucky enough to own some of these cards prior to the boom then even better.

But for the other 95% of collectors who don't own these SPA and Cup and Ultimate RCs of the Crosby, McDavid, Ovie types and probably never will at this point, we may as well forget they even exist. They're in a different realm all together. So when a high end future watch sells for $15k and the masses can't afford that they will obviously go for the next best thing and right now that is the long standing hobby staple which is the Young Guns. And they can be found and bought many many times easier than the higher end stuff.

So to the people saying Young Guns are higher print and won't matter, what are you expecting? A McDavid FWA to someday sell for $100k but the YG has to drop to $1k or something and stay there forever? Never going to happen. Because the segment of collector who can actually afford that FWA is like 1% of the hobby, but the very massive majority who can't will turn to the ones they are more likely to afford. Print run is larger on YGs but so is the collector base chasing them because the high end stuff is already out of reach and will never be in reach again.

Context matters and saying only the high end stuff will matter in the future implies that the entire hobby will only be chasing these FWAs and whatever at five or six figure prices and everything else will be ignored into obscurity. We know that won't be the case unless we all become millionaires between now and then.

Young Guns are already too expansive especially graded ones.

Young Guns $60-$80 raw Ultimate /99 $100-$120 raw.
Seems like an easy choice no?

All those prices for 99% of players will drop so no one will have to be chasing $1k anything.

Players like Mackinnon will be less in 10 years than now.

[k13]

mcdavid the lebron of hockey...lol

0 cups
0 meaningful records
Barely even the best player on his own team.

Playing in a farce division which makes any Canadian division player look better than they are.

Mcdavid never scored more than 41 goals in his life.

Imagine Lebron never averaging more than 25 ppg.

[EdwardJ]

Originally Posted by k13

mcdavid the lebron of hockey...lol

0 cups
0 meaningful records
Barely even the best player on his own team.

Playing in a farce division which makes any Canadian division player look better than they are.

Mcdavid never scored more than 41 goals in his life.

Imagine Lebron never averaging more than 25 ppg.

Mcdavid is 1000% the best player on his team lol and it isn't close. Drats is good number wise, but watching them play it isn't close man

but I do agree, McDavid isn't Lebron, I'd say McDavid is more like the Giannis of Basketball.

[Rorschach]

Originally Posted by k13

mcdavid the lebron of hockey...lol

0 cups
0 meaningful records
Barely even the best player on his own team.

Playing in a farce division which makes any Canadian division player look better than they are.

Mcdavid never scored more than 41 goals in his life.

Imagine Lebron never averaging more than 25 ppg.

I know what the other guy means but it does sound ridiculous as an unqualified statement. McDavid is more like Lebron from 15+ years ago when he looked like a guy stuck on a local Cavaliers team that hadn't won jack in so many years, and had an exclusive contract with UD...former top 1OA.

[Rorschach]

Originally Posted by k13

Young Guns are already too expansive especially graded ones.

Young Guns $60-$80 raw Ultimate /99 $100-$120 raw.
Seems like an easy choice no?

All those prices for 99% of players will drop so no one will have to be chasing $1k anything.

Players like Mackinnon will be less in 10 years than now.

That's true for supply side...YG printed 9999+ copies, Ultimate printed /99 copies total.

Problem is, price is determined by supply and demand.

Number of YGs demanded...for top players it's in the thousands. Ultimate Collection? It's the red-headed stepchild of the premium UD brands, the Jan Brady that no one pays attention to. YG has been collected since 90-91. It has no substitute. Ultimate Collection appears to be some weirdly morphed version of the past Premier Collection, an odd relative of OPC Premier or something. It's lost amongst The Cup, UD Black and the cards in it are easily confused with the cards in SPGU.

Large supply is often a great thing when it comes to card-collectibility. It's part of the hobby's psyche since day 1 when cards came multiples in a wax pack with a stick of gum, when the best card was just a base card of a rookie player, printed in the hundreds of thousands.

Ultimate Collection is too rare and is not the best of the best so it is a relatively irrelevant brand. No one would complain if it was cancelled tomorrow. Where as if UD cancelled YGs suddenly, it would terminate the collections of thousands of collectors who either build entire YG sets each year or collect YG subsets (like just of their favorite players or just of their favorite teams' players).

[EdwardJ]

Originally Posted by Rorschach

That's true for supply side...YG printed 9999+ copies, Ultimate printed /99 copies total.

Problem is, price is determined by supply and demand.

Number of YGs demanded...for top players it's in the thousands. Ultimate Collection? It's the red-headed stepchild of the premium UD brands, the Jan Brady that no one pays attention to. YG has been collected since 90-91. It has no substitute. Ultimate Collection appears to be some weirdly morphed version of the past Premier Collection, an odd relative of OPC Premier or something. It's lost amongst The Cup, UD Black and the cards in it are easily confused with the cards in SPGU.

Large supply is often a great thing when it comes to card-collectibility. It's part of the hobby's psyche since day 1 when cards came multiples in a wax pack with a stick of gum, when the best card was just a base card of a rookie player, printed in the hundreds of thousands.

Ultimate Collection is too rare and is not the best of the best so it is a relatively irrelevant brand. No one would complain if it was cancelled tomorrow. Where as if UD cancelled YGs suddenly, it would terminate the collections of thousands of collectors who either build entire YG sets each year or collect YG subsets (like just of their favorite players or just of their favorite teams' players).

Good points above. My problem with serial numbered cards is there are so many products and subsets out there with /100, /200, /400 etc that it just begins to get a bit saturated.

[clearblue]

I think Ultimate could one day take over as THE card to chase. It only takes a small group of people to actively collect the Ultimate rookies and to hype them up to change the mentality. It might not happen today or in this generation, but some smarter collectors 20-30 years from now might actually put value in cards that are more rare than the overproduced Young Guns or Future Watch cards. I can see it happening. Logic will take over and that Ultimate RC will finally get it's day in the spotlight.

[Rorschach]

Originally Posted by EdwardJ

Good points above. My problem with serial numbered cards is there are so many products and subsets out there with /100, /200, /400 etc that it just begins to get a bit saturated.

Exactly and I think the whole hobby got sick of this.

Collectors have embraced the old paradigm. We want to own a card that is ownable, supply-wise and share in the hobby together. I'd rather feel a connection to you if we both like and own a 91-92 UD Peter Forsberg RC rather than I or you are the one of possible 99 owners of a 05-06 Ultimate Collection Connor McDavid RC. The latter is really nice but the former is something special on a collective, collecting level.

[Rorschach]

Originally Posted by clearblue

I think Ultimate could one day take over as THE card to chase. It only takes a small group of people to actively collect the Ultimate rookies and to hype them up to change the mentality. It might not happen today or in this generation, but some smarter collectors 20-30 years from now might actually put value in cards that are more rare than the overproduced Young Guns or Future Watch cards. I can see it happening. Logic will take over and that Ultimate RC will finally get it's day in the spotlight.

Won't happen. Here's the reason. ...and I'm not saying UC /99s will be worthless, they will never be the premiere RC.

1) Not even the best /99 nor best of the top tier RCs. The Cup is the best top tier, UD Ice Premier /99 is the best non-Cup due to its cool acetate-ness

2) Best of the other tier RCs are YG for lowest/common tier; SPA FW /999 for mid tier; mid and low tier are all heavily driven not only by singles collectors but are competed against heavily by set collectors

Mainly it's reason #1...collectors either want the best. And /99 tier, no one is collecting any sets. So for reason 1, the /99 tier, UC is like the third to fifth choice and in a world where being number one is clearly the best, that won't cut it.

[michaelvanek]

When I was saying mcdavid is the lebron of hockey I wasn’t trying to compare accomplishments. I feel like Mcdavids cards for the modern era 2000s and up are on the high end of value. Sure there’s still Crosby and ovie but down the road I still think he will out sell them. His cup cards would have been crazy if they didn’t make 97 3 colors. On the topic of young guns I think what some of the bgs and psa 10s are selling for is nuts. Last I looked on pwcc there was an ovie and crosby sitting at $8100 each bgs 10s. I don’t see the appeal. As far as serial #ed cards there’s always a set check list so not every card is a rookie card. I don’t look at all the /100 /200 /400 stuff. Gimmie a rare /99 in a set or /199 or /249 at most. Does anyone have a mcdavid 9.5 ultimate for sale? When’s the last time you seen one?


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[Rorschach]

Originally Posted by michaelvanek

When I was saying mcdavid is the lebron of hockey I wasn’t trying to compare accomplishments. I feel like Mcdavids cards for the modern era 2000s and up are on the high end of value. Sure there’s still Crosby and ovie but down the road I still think he will out sell them. His cup cards would have been crazy if they didn’t make 97 3 colors. On the topic of young guns I think what some of the bgs and psa 10s are selling for is nuts. Last I looked on pwcc there was an ovie and crosby sitting at $8100 each bgs 10s. I don’t see the appeal. As far as serial #ed cards there’s always a set check list so not every card is a rookie card. I don’t look at all the /100 /200 /400 stuff. Gimmie a rare /99 in a set or /199 or /249 at most. Does anyone have a mcdavid 9.5 ultimate for sale? When’s the last time you seen one?


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I knew what you meant but it was just stated very lazily. McDavid is the best and most valuable, collectibility-wise player the last several years, now and the for the next few years.

The McDavid /99 Ultimate Collection will be extremely difficult to find at 9, let alone 9.5 due to how it was packed in the original box of Ultimate. I opened one and out of the pack there was a soft corner.

The good news is, at /99, it's rare enough where having higher grade tiers won't matter as much as say /999 SPA FW or YG.

[michaelvanek]

Originally Posted by Rorschach

Won't happen. Here's the reason. ...and I'm not saying UC /99s will be worthless, they will never be the premiere RC.

1) Not even the best /99 nor best of the top tier RCs. The Cup is the best top tier, UD Ice Premier /99 is the best non-Cup due to its cool acetate-ness

2) Best of the other tier RCs are YG for lowest/common tier; SPA FW /999 for mid tier; mid and low tier are all heavily driven not only by singles collectors but are competed against heavily by set collectors

Mainly it's reason #1...collectors either want the best. And /99 tier, no one is collecting any sets. So for reason 1, the /99 tier, UC is like the third to fifth choice and in a world where being number one is clearly the best, that won't cut it.

Ice premiers I just don’t get. Non auto cool plastic card /99 I don’t see how it can be more sought after than a card hard signed by a player. I have never understood the fascination of these but I have still purchased and flipped them because they do have a following.


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[k13]

Originally Posted by Rorschach

Won't happen. Here's the reason. ...and I'm not saying UC /99s will be worthless, they will never be the premiere RC.

1) Not even the best /99 nor best of the top tier RCs. The Cup is the best top tier, UD Ice Premier /99 is the best non-Cup due to its cool acetate-ness

2) Best of the other tier RCs are YG for lowest/common tier; SPA FW /999 for mid tier; mid and low tier are all heavily driven not only by singles collectors but are competed against heavily by set collectors

Mainly it's reason #1...collectors either want the best. And /99 tier, no one is collecting any sets. So for reason 1, the /99 tier, UC is like the third to fifth choice and in a world where being number one is clearly the best, that won't cut it.

Cup and Ice are losing their luster big time.

Ice premieres /99 sell terrible now.
Cup is thick and hard to grade plus fake patches.

Rich people shell out for the top rare cards and exclusivity.
Common folks can get their young guns and feel special.

[michaelvanek]

Depending on the cup card I guess they might be losing some traction in the hobby but the ovie 4 color is going strong after a few days. 55k usd wish I still had mine.


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[k13]

Mcdavid won't even be joe sakic.

You have to really gullible that this nonsense will continue next year.

[michaelvanek]

Originally Posted by k13

Mcdavid won't even be joe sakic.

You have to really gullible that this nonsense will continue next year.

Have you looked at the stats? The kid is sick. Even in today’s tuff fast game with more high tech equipment he makes it look easy.


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[michaelvanek]

What would a mcdavid bgs 9.5 ultimate rookie be worth? Let’s throw some numbers around. It’s pop 12 and the market is hot. I don’t even remember the last time I saw a 9.5 for sale. I know a guy who has a 9 and wants 12.5k usd for it.


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[EdwardJ]

Originally Posted by k13

Cup and Ice are losing their luster big time.

Ice premieres /99 sell terrible now.
Cup is thick and hard to grade plus fake patches.

Rich people shell out for the top rare cards and exclusivity.
Common folks can get their young guns and feel special.

The biggest thing I hate about the Cup more than anything is that it produces these "Tribute" Rookie Auto's. I absolutely hate that. Clear Cut does the same thing with "Tribute" Rookies.

I mean reprints have been available forever, but these almost act as a somewhat replacement of those original rookies / a rarer version of the original since they are lower numbered, or acetate and have an auto.
To me it just comes off as lazy from Upper Deck, almost like hollywood releasing fast and the furious 57 because they can't think of any new clever ideas for movies

[CB Nostalgia]

Offensively McDavid is at worst Marcel Dionne. His stats for his first 500 games are absurd. Winning builds legacies, if he spends his career collecting personal hardware in Edmonton but never winning he will never be considered on par with even Sakic or Yzerman, let alone a top ten player. Should his team’s record prevent him from being an all time great?

[clearblue]

Originally Posted by Rorschach

Won't happen. Here's the reason. ...and I'm not saying UC /99s will be worthless, they will never be the premiere RC.

1) Not even the best /99 nor best of the top tier RCs. The Cup is the best top tier, UD Ice Premier /99 is the best non-Cup due to its cool acetate-ness

2) Best of the other tier RCs are YG for lowest/common tier; SPA FW /999 for mid tier; mid and low tier are all heavily driven not only by singles collectors but are competed against heavily by set collectors

Mainly it's reason #1...collectors either want the best. And /99 tier, no one is collecting any sets. So for reason 1, the /99 tier, UC is like the third to fifth choice and in a world where being number one is clearly the best, that won't cut it.

Like I said, that's because that's how people think now. You cannot predict what people will want in the future. The reality is, the young guns and future watch RCs are so common and easily attainable, it won't interest the hardcore collectors in the future. Collectors with deep pockets and collectors that enjoy searching for rare items will want something special.

Like people have said/implied, nothing makes sense with hockey. There's no reason why an ICE RC should be more sought after than an autographed Ultimate RC by such a large margin. I'm certain future generations will want the Ultimate RC and pay big money for it.

Again, people's mindsets change all of the time. Not that long ago, nobody would consider a SI Kids magazine card as a valuable card, but it's slowly gaining acceptance and now people are fetching thousands for certain athletes. The under appreciated and overlooked card will eventually find some love. It's inevitable.