Is anyone even breaking product anymore?

[PDCCollectibles]

Originally Posted by ddearing

I've gone from breaking an assortment of sports/non sports annually of around 50+ cases down to zero. Nothing. Just can't justify it. I'm just storing or selling the product instead. I haven't opened a single pack in months.

Pretty much the same on my end...I never held wax, but times sure have changed.

[hochunk5]

Even group breaks of this are getting stupid. This is a product where singles have little value but box prices took a big increase. Most people dont want to take $2900 and turn it into $800 for “the fun” of opening so its really mostly breakers opening it. But even groups breaks are now priced so high per spot that even if you do get a hit you are still not making up the cost of the spot 90% of the time. So much better to buy the single of the card you wanted for even less then a group break spot would cost. Really is hard to collect these days but easy to see why distributors and card companies get their piece. Breakers will buy at any price and just pass those increases onto the participants and distributors can sell to them all day long knowing they will buy and break it.


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[mfw13]

From all the comments on this thread, it sounds as if the market may be about to correct.

Or maybe not....plenty of newbies with money to burn that may keep it afloat....

[UCCF]

Originally Posted by auctionjmm

You are misunderstanding his post. He's not talking about group breaks. He's referring to people who are breaking boxes/cases for themselves. People used to open a lot of product for themselves and then post their "breaks" here just to show off their cards. Then bigger guys like the Brentandbecca's of the world who used to open 50 cases and post all of their hits and sell their singles to customers. This was going on before group breaking even existed.

So what he's saying is why are so few people breaking and posting anymore? I think price is the biggest reason. And to your point, they'd rather participate in a group break then to buy and post their own boxes.

I was way off base, you are right.

[Stech36]

Originally Posted by mfw13

From all the comments on this thread, it sounds as if the market may be about to correct.

Or maybe not....plenty of newbies with money to burn that may keep it afloat....

There’s still good products to break if you know when to buy.. 2020 bowman draft was a steal for about a month. Got under 300 a box for jumbo. Pretty hard to lose at that price when a Torkelson base is a $40 card.

Just can’t open stupidly priced products like inception and gypsy queen.

[Stech36]

Originally Posted by hochunk5

Even group breaks of this are getting stupid. This is a product where singles have little value but box prices took a big increase. Most people dont want to take $2900 and turn it into $800 for “the fun” of opening so its really mostly breakers opening it. But even groups breaks are now priced so high per spot that even if you do get a hit you are still not making up the cost of the spot 90% of the time. So much better to buy the single of the card you wanted for even less then a group break spot would cost. Really is hard to collect these days but easy to see why distributors and card companies get their piece. Breakers will buy at any price and just pass those increases onto the participants and distributors can sell to them all day long knowing they will buy and break it.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

I’ll never understand group breaks, other than pick your teams. With random teams you’ll lose almost every time.

[mikejones]

Originally Posted by mfw13

From all the comments on this thread, it sounds as if the market may be about to correct.

Or maybe not....plenty of newbies with money to burn that may keep it afloat....

Baskeball/football newbie: buys donruss basketball and optic football for 1k a box.

A few weeks later: decides to try baseball. Walks into lcs and says

Newbie: hey what's good in baseball?

LCS: well, there's a new product called inception baseball that just came out.

Newbie: how much?

LCS: $150 per box.

Newbie thinking: damn, that's a dirt cheap price compared to what I pay for baskeball and football. Says to LCS, ill get 10 boxes or if you have a case, I'll get that.

Moral of the story: I don't see prices going down anytime soon.

[pacman099]

Learned from you all and started buying singles! Prices have gone up, but it's still way more fun spending $500 on a vintage card vs. $500+ on a jumbo box of bowman with 3 pitcher autos.

[MoreToppsPlease]

Originally Posted by mikejones

Baskeball/football newbie: buys donruss basketball and optic football for 1k a box.

A few weeks later: decides to try baseball. Walks into lcs and says

Newbie: hey what's good in baseball?

LCS: well, there's a new product called inception baseball that just came out.

Newbie: how much?

LCS: $150 per box.

Newbie thinking: damn, that's a dirt cheap price compared to what I pay for baskeball and football. Says to LCS, ill get 10 boxes or if you have a case, I'll get that.

Moral of the story: I don't see priced going down anytime soon.

Until he goes to flip and gets back $75 total

[goin3d]

This year I’ll try to just focus on topps and bowman chrome in terms of releases yet to come. Even the Allen and ginter prices are looking a bit more this year! ( which I usually love)

[Turd Ferguson]

Originally Posted by blackbears86

I was just looking at the baseball box break page to see how inception was busting and found exactly 4 breaks on page one. (of those, one was a case)


I know inception doesn't really get the collector's blood flowing these days, but 4 breaks?
I figured there would be more since blowout has it #1 on the "hot list" (or is that the pump list?)


so, that being said:
1. Is it just a poor product with no interest?
2. Too expensive and overpriced?
3. It's all about the breakers now?
4. Collectors just saving up for Bowman?
5. Just a general trend of people being priced out of boxes?

or ALL of the above?

I've been a broken record about the price hike for awhile (whether on here or in my head every time I look at the unopened/pre-sale market). Haven't read any of the responses, so I may duplicate answers, but it's a good list of questions that I wanted to answer blind and from my previous experiences.

1) I liked the 2020 version of Inception, but I got my case for about $900 and had a massively lucky case. It was also one of the last cases I busted. I thought the cards looked good, from base to insert, minus the sticker autos which are almost always ugly (to me). The 2021 version doesn't really look any different, which I think is part of Topps resting on their laurels and not having to make any significant changes. Same autos, same socks, same buttons, same parallels (I assume - the breaks posted for 2021 didn't seem to have anything new but I could be wrong). And same stickers with anything not base/parallel RCs.

2) Absolutely yes. I can't fathom the box/case price for 2021 compared to 2020 and justifying breaking at 2.5x last years cost, when the content is so similar and, from what I've seen some say, the checklist is weaker than last year. To some, the money isn't an issue and they like to break. I'm kind of in that boat - I sell just about everything I pull, and I like to break just to see what I get - but I've busted enough product over the last few years to know that the risk is absolutely nowhere near worth the reward, even hitting what I'd normally consider really good cards.

3) Maybe? I haven't done a group break in a while, but I have been involved before. Group breaks are attractive to quite a good number of people, be it here, eBay or other sites. I do believe the increase in cost is partially in relation to group breaking - everyone is still moving the product from manufacturer to distributor and on down, so the money is still flowing and Topps/Panini (and on down) can increase their prices because there doesn't seem to be any let up at all. I haven't seen nearly as many personal breaks in the box break section, at least not to the level it used to be.

4) Definitely don't know, because I don't have much of a history of breaking regular Bowman/Bowman Chrome/Bowman 1st/etc. Bowman's Best, yes, for a couple of years but that doesn't hold a candle - I just liked Bowman's Best (also did bonkers good with one particular case). I would guess that this would be a yes because those seem to be the go-to for rookie cards outside of flagship.

5) For me, yes. From 2018-2020, I would target a handful of products: Bowman's Best, Finest, Clearly Authentic and Archives Snapshots. AS is the only thing that is now remotely affordable and yields the most fun/risk/reward as it's remained $25.00/box since it started in 2017 (and that's with Topps going from numbering every auto card in the first year to not continuing the process so we don't know exactly how many there are). The rest have been jacked so sky high in the last year that I know absolutely none of it is worth it, especially as more and more parallels/inserts are added and water down a case break (especially Clearly Authentic - first two years were good and then they just crapped the bed).

I would bet there's been a few responses in this thread about buying singles/the cards you want and I agree with it 100%. Your money goes so much further and there's hardly any chance of regret.

(And now I wait until August or so for Archives Snapshots as long as the bots don't get them all )

[Cubs_rock21]

Most people now buy singles or do group breaks. Breakers overbid the MSRP and get most the product. Buying wax with all this mass production isnt worth the risk. Buy the singles you want, or gamble in breaks.

[jjcan]

The only boxes i am breaking is retail if i find it. If i can buy a reasonable hobby wax from LCS sadly goes into a plastic for storage. Its too expensive to break BUT may be worth it on first week release price pick up and hope it goes up.

Prizm soccer, prizm wnba, Bowman draft etc. even now i just put 2021 jumbo topps away.

Almost better to put that money into grading and or find stuff at swap.meets estate sales.

[rcgdodge]

1. Is it just a poor product with no interest? - I only really like Stadium Club, Heritage and Flagship.
2. Too expensive and overpriced? - Yes
3. It's all about the breakers now? - They can front all the money and I'll buy the singles I want.
4. Collectors just saving up for Bowman? - Don't care about Bowman
5. Just a general trend of people being priced out of boxes? - Hard to find mostly.

[Stech36]

I find it interesting how many people have mentioned buying sealed wax to hold. Is no one worried about a crash coming?

I’m not a doom and gloom kind of guy, I don’t think the hobby will crash and burn completely. But I could see a $1000 Donruss basketball box, or $650 2021 bowman box, not really increasing long term. I guess you probably only need to hold it a year or so to see the increase in value though..

[chilly55]

I've been opening cases of Heritage for over a decade, but just looked at boxes at $149.99, no thanks. I was able to pick up last years at $78.00 (after release), so unless this stuff gets around $100.00 a box, won't be opening a single product this year.

It also means I won't be in any breaks, as break prices have gone up too.

[tblood]

Originally Posted by ItsMeJordanD

As bad as the price increases have been for baseball boxes, it's nothing compared to basketball and football. Tomorrow the basketball Prizm FOTL boxes are released on Panini's website in a dutch auction style where the price lowers over time until they're sold out. The starting price is $4500 a box and the people in the basketball section of this forum seem to think they will be gone quickly. That's insane. At least I can still buy hobby packs of flagship Topps baseball from my LCS at $6 a pop.

Other sports are certainly more ridiculous but they also sell for more at the moment. As absurd as $4500/box sounds, $6/pack of flagship is nuts for such a mass produced product. I used to love walking into my LCS to buy one or two hobby/jumbo boxes of a new product along with a handful of flagship packs for .99 to $1.50. Maybe a couple packs of Topps Chrome for $3-4/pack. Not gonna happen at $20-30/pack now. Jumbo packs of flagship were $8-10 just two years ago. Now they are $35-40. A single jumbo pack of Bowman now costs almost as much as a hobby box did a couple years ago. This isn’t some wildly expensive 20yr old product. It’s brand new product of players who have barely played.

I hoped 2020 wax prices would correct themselves and return to 2019 levels. I realize that’s not going to happen. That is a real shame for a mid-level collector like me who used to love opening my own cards. Buying singles doesn’t have the same value as pulling a card myself. I don’t know about all of you, but my income hasn’t tripled in the last two years.

To the OP... I loved Inception in ‘17 and ‘18 when it was $50-75/box. I broke a few cases and pulled some of my favorite cards. I still love the card stock, design and finish... just not enough to justify paying the current prices. As much of a niche product as it is, I think Inception is more representative of a growing trend in the hobby than some of you are stating. 2020 was the breaking point for many people on popular and high-demand products. Gypsy Queen, Heritage, A&G, etc. were still within reason. I think 2021 is going to be the breaking point for even more people on most products.

[Ledzep157]

Originally Posted by seanbros55

The only stuff I’ve broken this year so far has been website direct from Topps/Target

S1 - 2x Hobby 4x Blaster (absolute bloodbath, even at MSRP)
Heritage - 3x Blaster (still in transit)

I’m not paying blown out (*cough*) prices or waiting in line for retail. Not gonna happen.

Same here except I haven't even touched the second hobby or any of my blaster yet. My first hobby box was an off-centered disaster. Wonderful QC by Topps this year.

[Wallmark]

Originally Posted by Stech36

I find it interesting how many people have mentioned buying sealed wax to hold. Is no one worried about a crash coming?

I’m not a doom and gloom kind of guy, I don’t think the hobby will crash and burn completely. But I could see a $1000 Donruss basketball box, or $650 2021 bowman box, not really increasing long term. I guess you probably only need to hold it a year or so to see the increase in value though..

From looking at prices over the past year I would say most wax, even the junk, you can hold for 6 months or less and get at least 30% ROI. That would be a pretty strong stock market return and would probably involve something extremely high risk. It's the same sentiment in the stock market as well. "How can TSLA keep going up? It's got to crash at some point."

[chris_ac]

Definitely less product being opened across the 4 major sport universe. I can tell by the constant searching on ebay for my PC. First quarter of the year is almost finished and I've bought less because either really quality cards are few and far between or of course, too stupid to purchase because the buy-in is off a chart. Plenty of common base/parallels/inserts still hitting ebay but good low numbered stuff or even hoping (wishing) to a see a 1/1 of your fav guy is either not happening at all or will be priced for holy rollers. Or for that matter, being bought and sold on FB or IG before ever hitting ebay.

[blackbears86]

Originally Posted by auctionjmm

You are misunderstanding his post. He's not talking about group breaks. He's referring to people who are breaking boxes/cases for themselves. People used to open a lot of product for themselves and then post their "breaks" here just to show off their cards. Then bigger guys like the Brentandbecca's of the world who used to open 50 cases and post all of their hits and sell their singles to customers. This was going on before group breaking even existed.

So what he's saying is why are so few people breaking and posting anymore? I think price is the biggest reason. And to your point, they'd rather participate in a group break then to buy and post their own boxes.

This was EXACTLY what I was referencing.


In years past, even a "third tier" product like Inception had a page or more of breaks on blowout.


Now. Inception has 4 breaks total. I was even calling the 5 pack break a box break.

[blackbears86]

Originally Posted by auctionjmm

To get back on topic (I know you weren't talking about group breaks. Some folks were confused), I think less and less people are breaking boxes for themselves. They enjoy the social aspect of buying into a group break for a fraction of a whole box or case, participating in the chats with other users, talking to the breakers, etc. It's a whole different culture these days.

Walking into a card shop, buying 3 boxes of Inception, taking them home to open and then posting your hits on BO is just not as exciting as it once seemed. Plus prices push a lot of people away.

I've spent many late nights in the past doing the backbreaking work of busting cases and listing singles on eBay. It took days, if not weeks. I was either alone or with one or two other friends who would occasionally help. TBH, I became much more entertained when I could crack a beer open, watch Layton or whoever break a variety of products, and go to bed knowing I didn't have anything to sort or ship in the morning. If I had enough beers I'd talk myself into laying down $50 on a random team break and getting lucky.

My income from cards is now more diverse. I do still break (have 10 cases of Heritage coming), but it is much more isolated to the slam dunk opportunities that I occasionally still find where I know I won't lose. Donruss basketball, even at 10K per case, was a guaranteed winner no matter what. I did 4 cases of that and had fun knowing I wouldn't lose a dime. But products like that are few and far between. I pick my spots now where I think I can do best, but it isn't even close to the level it once was.

Good insight. I know you always broke several cases of different products.

[cruiserdaddy7]

Blowout keeps selling out of 2021 Topps Inception, so someone is clearly buying the stuff.

[blackbears86]

Originally Posted by Turd Ferguson

I've been a broken record about the price hike for awhile (whether on here or in my head every time I look at the unopened/pre-sale market). Haven't read any of the responses, so I may duplicate answers, but it's a good list of questions that I wanted to answer blind and from my previous experiences.

1) I liked the 2020 version of Inception, but I got my case for about $900 and had a massively lucky case. It was also one of the last cases I busted. I thought the cards looked good, from base to insert, minus the sticker autos which are almost always ugly (to me). The 2021 version doesn't really look any different, which I think is part of Topps resting on their laurels and not having to make any significant changes. Same autos, same socks, same buttons, same parallels (I assume - the breaks posted for 2021 didn't seem to have anything new but I could be wrong). And same stickers with anything not base/parallel RCs.

2) Absolutely yes. I can't fathom the box/case price for 2021 compared to 2020 and justifying breaking at 2.5x last years cost, when the content is so similar and, from what I've seen some say, the checklist is weaker than last year. To some, the money isn't an issue and they like to break. I'm kind of in that boat - I sell just about everything I pull, and I like to break just to see what I get - but I've busted enough product over the last few years to know that the risk is absolutely nowhere near worth the reward, even hitting what I'd normally consider really good cards.

3) Maybe? I haven't done a group break in a while, but I have been involved before. Group breaks are attractive to quite a good number of people, be it here, eBay or other sites. I do believe the increase in cost is partially in relation to group breaking - everyone is still moving the product from manufacturer to distributor and on down, so the money is still flowing and Topps/Panini (and on down) can increase their prices because there doesn't seem to be any let up at all. I haven't seen nearly as many personal breaks in the box break section, at least not to the level it used to be.

4) Definitely don't know, because I don't have much of a history of breaking regular Bowman/Bowman Chrome/Bowman 1st/etc. Bowman's Best, yes, for a couple of years but that doesn't hold a candle - I just liked Bowman's Best (also did bonkers good with one particular case). I would guess that this would be a yes because those seem to be the go-to for rookie cards outside of flagship.

5) For me, yes. From 2018-2020, I would target a handful of products: Bowman's Best, Finest, Clearly Authentic and Archives Snapshots. AS is the only thing that is now remotely affordable and yields the most fun/risk/reward as it's remained $25.00/box since it started in 2017 (and that's with Topps going from numbering every auto card in the first year to not continuing the process so we don't know exactly how many there are). The rest have been jacked so sky high in the last year that I know absolutely none of it is worth it, especially as more and more parallels/inserts are added and water down a case break (especially Clearly Authentic - first two years were good and then they just crapped the bed).

I would bet there's been a few responses in this thread about buying singles/the cards you want and I agree with it 100%. Your money goes so much further and there's hardly any chance of regret.

(And now I wait until August or so for Archives Snapshots as long as the bots don't get them all )

Thanks for the reply. Very much appreciated.

[blackbears86]

Originally Posted by tblood

Other sports are certainly more ridiculous but they also sell for more at the moment. As absurd as $4500/box sounds, $6/pack of flagship is nuts for such a mass produced product. I used to love walking into my LCS to buy one or two hobby/jumbo boxes of a new product along with a handful of flagship packs for .99 to $1.50. Maybe a couple packs of Topps Chrome for $3-4/pack. Not gonna happen at $20-30/pack now. Jumbo packs of flagship were $8-10 just two years ago. Now they are $35-40. A single jumbo pack of Bowman now costs almost as much as a hobby box did a couple years ago. This isn’t some wildly expensive 20yr old product. It’s brand new product of players who have barely played.

I hoped 2020 wax prices would correct themselves and return to 2019 levels. I realize that’s not going to happen. That is a real shame for a mid-level collector like me who used to love opening my own cards. Buying singles doesn’t have the same value as pulling a card myself. I don’t know about all of you, but my income hasn’t tripled in the last two years.

To the OP... I loved Inception in ‘17 and ‘18 when it was $50-75/box. I broke a few cases and pulled some of my favorite cards. I still love the card stock, design and finish... just not enough to justify paying the current prices. As much of a niche product as it is, I think Inception is more representative of a growing trend in the hobby than some of you are stating. 2020 was the breaking point for many people on popular and high-demand products. Gypsy Queen, Heritage, A&G, etc. were still within reason. I think 2021 is going to be the breaking point for even more people on most products.

Great post:


I used to buy at least two boxes (or more) every year of Bowman/Topps chrome/HHN, and update.



Now: one each of HHN and update. Not because I can't afford it, but because I don't want to pay these insane prices. So, like most others here, I will let someone else take a bath and buy singles.


NOT complaining. The market is what it is. Box prices are nuts, but so are my graded Trout/Soto update rookies.