NBA Top Shot - High Risk, High Reward?

[whodatbeastly16]

I was thinking about doing the KD too, but it'd require all my Dapper balance. I also thought about it and there's only a 2% chance of getting into the top 100 serial numbers. I don't really think that's worth $1600, but in reality that's not too bad for a challenge.

[TFCNB]

Originally Posted by whodatbeastly16

I was thinking about doing the KD too, but it'd require all my Dapper balance. I also thought about it and there's only a 2% chance of getting into the top 100 serial numbers. I don't really think that's worth $1600, but in reality that's not too bad for a challenge.

I agree, it is decent, but not great. I think I'll go for the Cool cats 3 challenge. I haven't completed a challenge yet, so that will be fun

[ThePackLife]

$1000+ in my dapper and about 8 lowish serialed number moments that I really like... Pretty happy for an initial investment of $300. I should be able to withdraw soon but I'm gonna leave it in and try to score the $1,000 pack first.

[whodatbeastly16]

Originally Posted by ThePackLife

$1000+ in my dapper and about 8 lowish serialed number moments that I really like... Pretty happy for an initial investment of $300. I should be able to withdraw soon but I'm gonna leave it in and try to score the $1,000 pack first.

Have you completed any challenges yet? I'm really hoping they don't place the next legendary behind a challenge wall.

[whodatbeastly16]

Originally Posted by TFCNB

I agree, it is decent, but not great. I think I'll go for the Cool cats 3 challenge. I haven't completed a challenge yet, so that will be fun

I think the KD challenge at $1600 is a better value than the Jokic at $600. The cool cats will get undercut more after the challenge finishes in my opinion

[TFCNB]

Originally Posted by whodatbeastly16

I think the KD challenge at $1600 is a better value than the Jokic at $600. The cool cats will get undercut more after the challenge finishes in my opinion

You are probably right about the CCs being more undercut post challenge, however there are only 6 of them, and the avg cost of them is less than the seeing stars, so you might come out a bit better off that way.

[ThePackLife]

Originally Posted by whodatbeastly16

Have you completed any challenges yet? I'm really hoping they don't place the next legendary behind a challenge wall.

No way they do that for the first legend pack. Maybe a pack release afterwards if they see fit. In the time I've been on TS, they will always give us an ample amount of time to prep for a pack release and for a requirement as big as a challenge completion, they'd have to give us a few weeks atleast. Who knows though honestly... I just think the safest play is to have the balance in there so I'm not selling for losses once they make the announcement for this $1000 pack. lol

[BosCardGuy]

Originally Posted by whodatbeastly16

I was thinking about doing the KD too, but it'd require all my Dapper balance. I also thought about it and there's only a 2% chance of getting into the top 100 serial numbers. I don't really think that's worth $1600, but in reality that's not too bad for a challenge.

If you need the Lavine and want to save some Dapper, I could trade it to you for a card... Just throwing it out there.

[tYEwREEEk13]

Anybody got Lebron SS moments? Might be looking for a couple... PM me... thanks!

[hoopstaj]

Originally Posted by whodatbeastly16

I actually bought a couple Zion's /35k at $45 and figured, why not. They were over $80 at the beginning of March. I've also picked up a few Khris Middleton /15k at $13 as these seem to be undervalued imo. No way Eric Bledsoe should be $12 and Middleton $13. I think when we get closer to playoff time these will pick up. I could see them being ~$25-30. He's the best scorer on a contender and has the potential to drop 30 points in a playoff game. I've been looking at the S1 /3k for him at $115-125 and just bought one. I don't know if there's much room for it to move, but I checked the /4k's of similar players (2nd fiddle) on contenders and the card seemed undervalued. No way Donte Divincenzo should only be $10 cheaper than Middleton. Also got my first bubble moment out of all this, so pretty cool.

I'm very close to getting back into Kira triple-badge considering the card is back down to $250. The only thing I worry about is Stan van Gundy not giving him his minutes, especially with Lonzo and Bledsoe still on the team.

Followed you on the Middleton’s, think you made a lot of good points


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[Birdanski]

anyone heard of when the zion challenge is coming? (trying to sell my morant RS /2021...ha)

[jcardstore]

So this is for someone who actually follows TS prices. Are moments actually correlated with player performance? I don’t really follow prices that closely but it doesn’t seem like players get any measurable bump after good games

[b2k1121]

Originally Posted by ThePackLife

No way they do that for the first legend pack. Maybe a pack release afterwards if they see fit. In the time I've been on TS, they will always give us an ample amount of time to prep for a pack release and for a requirement as big as a challenge completion, they'd have to give us a few weeks atleast. Who knows though honestly... I just think the safest play is to have the balance in there so I'm not selling for losses once they make the announcement for this $1000 pack. lol

They have done legendary packs before. They discussed the giving time to complete a requirement recently I believe in the office hours and said they might have to revisit if that's a good idea and specifically said something along the lines of locking the requirement in when the announcement is made is a possibility. I think they are serious about finding some type of reward for active collectors and something like this could be it.

[ThePackLife]

Originally Posted by jcardstore

So this is for someone who actually follows TS prices. Are moments actually correlated with player performance? I don’t really follow prices that closely but it doesn’t seem like players get any measurable bump after good games

Nope not at all. Just using Luka as an example, he's been killing it for the past couple weeks and his prices have dropped consistently.

The only player I've seen go up in price and actually hold through the volatility is Anthony Edwards. If anyone else has seen a significant increase in price with a specific player please let us know.

[jcardstore]

Originally Posted by ThePackLife

Nope not at all. Just using Luka as an example, he's been killing it for the past couple weeks and his prices have dropped consistently.

The only player I've seen go up in price and actually hold through the volatility is Anthony Edwards. If anyone else has seen a significant increase in price with a specific player please let us know.

Kind of what I thought and I asked specifically cause people are talking about buying specific players for like basketball reasons and I just don’t see the correlation between performance and prices.

[TFCNB]

Originally Posted by ThePackLife

Nope not at all. Just using Luka as an example, he's been killing it for the past couple weeks and his prices have dropped consistently.

The only player I've seen go up in price and actually hold through the volatility is Anthony Edwards. If anyone else has seen a significant increase in price with a specific player please let us know.

I agree I follow the NBA very closely, and I haven't seen any jumps due to good performances.

[ThePackLife]

Originally Posted by b2k1121

They have done legendary packs before. They discussed the giving time to complete a requirement recently I believe in the office hours and said they might have to revisit if that's a good idea and specifically said something along the lines of locking the requirement in when the announcement is made is a possibility. I think they are serious about finding some type of reward for active collectors and something like this could be it.

So they've already released a $1000 pack? I've only seen $250 as the most expensive pack in the sold out section. My fault if I missed it.

I don't disagree with you at all, like I said, I just think the safest play is to have the balance ready as opposed to trying to scramble if the announcement for another legend pack is ever made.

[whodatbeastly16]

I'll give an example of a player and card I follow closely. I think prices correlate more to narrative rather than performance. For example, after Jaxson Hayes poster dunk of Reggie Jackson his moment jumped around $10 in price in less than an hour. The prices of moments are complicated, but there are narrative shifts in price. It's not really good performances but moreso the narrative underlying those performances. Lonzo saw a huge jump upon the trade rumors and has now fallen.

[b2k1121]

Originally Posted by ThePackLife

So they've already released a $1000 pack? I've only seen $250 as the most expensive pack in the sold out section. My fault if I missed it.

I don't disagree with you at all, like I said, I just think the safest play is to have the balance ready as opposed to trying to scramble if the announcement for another legend pack is ever made.

Yeah, I don't know why it's not listed on the site, but they had a legendary Holo Icon pack for $999 on Feb 6, you see the blog post here: https://blog.nbatopshot.com/posts/holo-icon

I believe it was the last pack drop before the queue system came in because they had a huge issue with this one where a bunch of people were able to skip the waiting room system they had in place and just purchase the packs right away. Some got multiple.

I agree that I wouldn't sell off a bunch of stuff just get $1000 because it's going to be extremely long odds to even get the chance to buy a legendary pack, there might be 400k in line by then.

[Vinny1984]

Originally Posted by b2k1121

Yeah, I don't know why it's not listed on the site, but they had a legendary Holo Icon pack for $999 on Feb 6, you see the blog post here: https://blog.nbatopshot.com/posts/holo-icon

I believe it was the last pack drop before the queue system came in because they had a huge issue with this one where a bunch of people were able to skip the waiting room system they had in place and just purchase the packs right away. Some got multiple.

I agree that I wouldn't sell off a bunch of stuff just get $1000 because it's going to be extremely long odds to even get the chance to buy a legendary pack, there might be 400k in line by then.

I had $0 in my dapper when my # got called for the $1k pack. I had to pay with my credit card and pay the fees but really didn’t play a huge factor in my overall ROI. Selling off a bunch of moments for the small chance you get a pack is silly. Most people can find a way to raise $1k to pay the CC bill before the payment is due. It’s a guaranteed winning lottery ticket at this stage.

[jcardstore]

Originally Posted by Vinny1984

I had $0 in my dapper when my # got called for the $1k pack. I had to pay with my credit card and pay the fees but really didn’t play a huge factor in my overall ROI. Selling off a bunch of moments for the small chance you get a pack is silly. Most people can find a way to raise $1k to pay the CC bill before the payment is due. It’s a guaranteed winning lottery ticket at this stage.

When packs are guaranteed to give you positive ROI there’s no reason to hold money in your balance. Throw it on the CC and even if you pay the fee it pales in comparison to the return you’ll get from the pack

[drobfan8]

Originally Posted by jcardstore

So this is for someone who actually follows TS prices. Are moments actually correlated with player performance? I don’t really follow prices that closely but it doesn’t seem like players get any measurable bump after good games

Originally Posted by ThePackLife

Nope not at all. Just using Luka as an example, he's been killing it for the past couple weeks and his prices have dropped consistently.

The only player I've seen go up in price and actually hold through the volatility is Anthony Edwards. If anyone else has seen a significant increase in price with a specific player please let us know.

I actually think player performance does make a difference.

Haliburton went up after his 28 pt game and Edwards was up huge right after his 40 pt game.

I think the problem is sheer active users on Top Shot.

If these were Prizm Silvers on ebay they would have skyrocketed.

You mention Luka as an example, he has been balling, but his cards are fairly stagnant right now. LeBron's have gone down, even before his injury.

I think this is just a typical lull in the season. A lot of people have bet on the players and teams already and will add some more $$$ as the Playoffs near.

I would love to throw some $$$ in to something but I have a bunch just treading water depending on outcomes.

KD is flat right now, when we all know as soon as he's back he's gonna rise, same with Bron. Same with Luka if his teams gets in to the top 6.

If you follow the discord chat a lot of people are buying on the back of games. Ubfortunately it's just too much supply right now.

They need more users. Or some more pack drops to reward the people that got in during Beta phase.

[ninjacookies]

The fact the market dumps when there's new pack offerings (as low as $15) probably speaks to the financial situation of these .wmv flipperbois.


Frenzies for tendies.

[gamboooler]

Yes performance is tied in. It's hard to tell since everything is basically freefalling, but for example Jokic has held up much, much better than his peers due to LBJ falling out of the MVP race for now. Anthony Edwards doubled overnight when he scored 40+ v. Phoenix. It was a lot easier to tell when things were cheaper and still going up. Basically anyone on national TV who did well got a temporary boost.

Also to another post, yes they've had legendary packs before, and yes they've strongly hinted you'll have needed to complete a challenge AND be holding 1-2 rare moments in your account to be eligible for the next legendary pack drop. I'm not sure it's even worth trying for them at this point, as they were $999 last time when MGLE were /499 and Legendary were /99, but they can be /2000+ and /499 respectively this time. Plus they hinted the $999 price was going up next time.

[ninjacookies]

How to turn $490 into $260 in 1 week:


Purchase a Christian Wood S1.


Not selling tho. It's all FU monopoly money. #thanoshands