NBA Top Shot - High Risk, High Reward?

[drobfan8]

Originally Posted by Timsterino

Not at all. Overall the Top Shot market is trash compared to even a month ago. It’s definitely high risk to buy the $1000 pack now. Unless you get a huge name, prepare to hold those moments for a while.

High risk?

No it is not. Not even close to high risk. You could buy the pack and probably sell it for double. Or open it and sell what's inside. The big timers will want to complete the challenge.

High risk would be the contents being worth $100. There is zero risk of that.

[shootit]

ponzi gonna ponzi

[Howie7107]

I think quite a few will sit this one out. The list for MGLEs is incredibly watered down. I haven’t checked actual sales data on legendaries lately, but I doubt the floor is the $1,900 we’re looking at now and 2,000 new legendaries won’t help that. Pack is still obviously +EV, but with no effective means of selling sealed or the contents I think some people will sit it out instead of deal with the variance of opening it (especially those who will have to make an additional deposit).

[drobfan8]

So if 80k are eligible. And let's say half want in, that means 40k people going for a pack.

All while TS raises a quick $2.5 million in pack sales plus the extra 50k base packs.

There will be plenty of people left annoyed.

I'm hoping we get another $200 pack drop soon and a challenge that has some 35k CC involved.

[KhalDrogo]

Is there any data on how many $1k+ single moment sales have occurred in the last 24 hours?

[jcardstore]

Originally Posted by KhalDrogo

Is there any data on how many $1k+ single moment sales have occurred in the last 24 hours?

https://cryptoslam.io/nba-top-shot

[omega145]

Pretty good pack for me:

Theo Maladon (rookie with all badges) 500/4000
Luka assist
Bam dunk

Not eligible for the Legendary pack as I'm a few moments short and haven't bought 1000 bucks worth of moments on the marketplace. Even if I was, I wouldn't spend $1000 for a pack. I get that you would *might* be able to get your money back but some of the moments and players shouldn't be in this type of drop when you are spending that type of money. I've gotten into the enjoyment of collecting Top Shot moments in creating showcases and shopping around for what to add to the collection but I wouldn't be a happy camper spending 1K to have a John Collins or Terry Rozier holo.

[Brobocop]

This ebay listing for the pack is pretty hilarious.

"I have two accounts (mine and my wife's) eligible for the HOLO ICON (DROP 2) PACK. We will not be purchasing these packs for ourselves but if I'm able to secure funds prior to them going on sale Monday, April 12, at 1PM PDT, I will purchase it for you if I'm randomly chosen. If I do not get a pack, I will refund you immediately."

ebay link

[GeechQuest]

Originally Posted by KhalDrogo

Is there any data on how many $1k+ single moment sales have occurred in the last 24 hours?

398 of the 52,391 total moments sold in the past 24 hours have been $1k+, which is the most in a 24 hour period in over a week. I assume it's people selling off to acquire Dap or to hit the spending threshold.

[cardfund]

I'm eligible but won't be taking part.

The market isn't very soft at the moment and I have concerns over liquidity at high price points for Holo players outside of Lebron, Ja, Ant, Ant, Tatum, Irving & Murray. Normally I would bank on the MGLE but that has been a very performing set of late, again there is probably a handful of players you can count on mainly P-Wil, MPJ & Killian. Just not sure how many buyers there are out there for the players in the drop. Get the sense it will be a race to the bottom.

You can probably still end up ahead, but I'd rather back myself to make some better decisions with $1k rather than leave it to chance.

Looking at the overall market, It seems we have ran out of steam and are unlikely to have another bull run in the short term. There don't appear to be any catalysts to draw a larger audience for now. This was very reminiscent of December 2017 ( I think) for crypto whereby the market was running hot reaching new highs and exchanges were struggling with onboarding new accounts.

As I have mentioned earlier, the addition of moments continues to dilute market cap;

[BosCardGuy]

Just read the topshot blog post, LMAO.

I'm convinced now that they're actively trying to drive people off the platform. "We'll be taking periodic snapshots of accounts to ensure that active participants are rewarded with more pack opportunities"

[BosCardGuy]

In addition, collectors who had spent at least $999 in the NBA Top Shot Marketplace - excluding pack purchases - and held at least one Moment at the time of the snapshot will also be eligible for this drop.


They did all but say "If you're not actively doing things on this platform that help us, but aren't what you're actually interested in, you will not be able to purchase from us anymore"



If that rule doesn't drive away at least 60% of their remaining customers, I don't know what will.

[rysportguy]

Originally Posted by BosCardGuy

In addition, collectors who had spent at least $999 in the NBA Top Shot Marketplace - excluding pack purchases - and held at least one Moment at the time of the snapshot will also be eligible for this drop.


They did all but say "If you're not actively doing things on this platform that help us, but aren't what you're actually interested in, you will not be able to purchase from us anymore"



If that rule doesn't drive away at least 60% of their remaining customers, I don't know what will.

Spoiler alert: it won't

[TFCNB]

Originally Posted by whodatbeastly16

80k eligible? That is far too much. I bet that very last requirement made like 30k people eligible though. If you've been flipping you could easily have bought $999 in moments and own one currently. Think I've purchased around $2500 worth on the market throughout my time on Topshot. It probably would've been better to require 15 moments, 2 rare, or 1 legendary and only that.

Agree. The $999 and 1 moment is there only to include the flippers, how many actual collectors would only hold one moment? This of course only benefits TS, and not the actual collectors.

[Duvalier]

Originally Posted by BosCardGuy

In addition, collectors who had spent at least $999 in the NBA Top Shot Marketplace - excluding pack purchases - and held at least one Moment at the time of the snapshot will also be eligible for this drop.


They did all but say "If you're not actively doing things on this platform that help us, but aren't what you're actually interested in, you will not be able to purchase from us anymore"



If that rule doesn't drive away at least 60% of their remaining customers, I don't know what will.

And yet you'll still be there for every affordable pack drop.

[TFCNB]

This is 100% going to be the first time where people lose money on a pack. I agree that most packs are going to return +EV, however if you get a bad pull on the /99 and the /499 pulls are also not great, I don't see you getting your 1K back. Sure you might be able to get back close to your 1K, but that is not +EV.

I am eligible for the drop, and am going to enter the queue, but only because I hope to get a rebound base pack out of it.

By the way my preorder back was
Murray dunk
Hart Dunk - something like 1400 serial #
Capela Dunk

I sold the Hart for $12 and the Capela for $4 already.

[mragentm]

Originally Posted by TFCNB

This is 100% going to be the first time where people lose money on a pack. I agree that most packs are going to return +EV, however if you get a bad pull on the /99 and the /499 pulls are also not great, I don't see you getting your 1K back. Sure you might be able to get back close to your 1K, but that is not +EV.

I am eligible for the drop, and am going to enter the queue, but only because I hope to get a rebound base pack out of it.

By the way my preorder back was
Murray dunk
Hart Dunk - something like 1400 serial #
Capela Dunk

I sold the Hart for $12 and the Capela for $4 already.

I might agree with you, I'll probably still join the queue but the players are underwhelming this drop outside of a few. Especially the metallic ones. No luka, zion, curry, or durant. At 1k and how much the market slowed down are people really going to be buying josh hart metallic, keldon johnson, josh jackson, siakam etc. A little weary but if you are one of the 100 that get LeBron you win BIG!

[rifleman69]

Originally Posted by drobfan8

High risk?

No it is not. Not even close to high risk. You could buy the pack and probably sell it for double. Or open it and sell what's inside. The big timers will want to complete the challenge.

High risk would be the contents being worth $100. There is zero risk of that.

zero? LOL

[BosCardGuy]

Originally Posted by rysportguy

Spoiler alert: it won't

You don't think a huge part of their base is people who only want to buy packs and sell off the pieces?

[BosCardGuy]

This rule might increase the value of bums that nobody wants, though. "Fine, I'll buy 15 Jakob Poetl's then"

[rifleman69]

Originally Posted by BosCardGuy

You don't think a huge part of their base is people who only want to buy packs and sell off the pieces?

No no no, people are truly collecting these for the long haul!

[rysportguy]

Originally Posted by TFCNB

Agree. The $999 and 1 moment is there only to include the flippers, how many actual collectors would only hold one moment? This of course only benefits TS, and not the actual collectors.

I think the reason they added that rule was because if someone bought packs and sold those moments all because they wanted to save up for one major moment. So if someone got $1000 worth in packs and spent that on their dream $1000 moment, they still consider that person a collector.

The main people they are trying to eliminate here is people that just buy packs and sell the contents and repeat. Flippers are an active part of the community and are actually important to give us the best snapshot of the market because they generate liquidity.

[ALBASKETBALL]

Originally Posted by BosCardGuy

In addition, collectors who had spent at least $999 in the NBA Top Shot Marketplace - excluding pack purchases - and held at least one Moment at the time of the snapshot will also be eligible for this drop.


They did all but say "If you're not actively doing things on this platform that help us, but aren't what you're actually interested in, you will not be able to purchase from us anymore"



If that rule doesn't drive away at least 60% of their remaining customers, I don't know what will.

Originally Posted by rysportguy

Spoiler alert: it won't

Dapper is skating a fine line right now. Everyone agreed they changes made to deter bots was needed.

Rewarding "true" collectors by limiting pack eligibility pre-announcement based off the amount of moments owned is a slippery slope on market place driven platform. For a public company owned by a multiple investment groups.

1.) Dapper just limited a spike in transactions and sales...what happened during the All-Star drop when eligibility required three moments? Commons went through the roof. Transactions went through the roof. Dapper profited immensely.

2.) It also is limiting activating to a large percentage of the users. It doesn't matter if 50k or 500k are active - loser users interest and ultimately their business is not a good strategy. Will Dapper be fine? Most likely....but once again Dapper is a HUGE business now owned by multiple investment groups ....and customer acquisition cost hurts the bottom dollar....and driving away active customers is not a good financial strategy.

I know the "collectors" might not care about the financial ramifications and they should. Very few collectors truly collect and don't care if the value plummets.

[rysportguy]

Originally Posted by BosCardGuy

You don't think a huge part of their base is people who only want to buy packs and sell off the pieces?

Oh yes, those are exactly who they are trying to eliminate. This isn't meant to be a lottery where all the profits exit the market. This is supposed to be a +EV way for people to increase their collections.

[BosCardGuy]

Collector held at least 15 Moments at time of snapshot OR
Collector held at least two rare Moments at time of snapshot OR
Collector held at least one legendary Moment at time of snapshot


These rules are clearly designed to reward people who have stuck around, in spite of them losing their ass over the past month.