NBA Top Shot - High Risk, High Reward?

[ninjacookies]

Missed a TJ McConnel no-look dime by 2 hours.

Nguyen some, lose some.

[drobfan8]

Sigh.

58k in the queue.

Looks like I'll fall less than 2k short.

Surprised 10% drop out. Seems to be even more like 15% on a larger pack drop..

[drobfan8]

Last stress test we got the MGLE pack drop not long after right?

Could be a higher end pack coming.

[tjforce]

Alright guys.. Can anybody help me on how to price a nice serial number of a bum moment?

Jordan Clarkson #100/35,000

It's a $5 moment with a normal serial. It'd rather move it for something I enjoyed more. What kind of premium do we think this could get?

[Wizkid]

Originally Posted by tjforce

Alright guys.. Can anybody help me on how to price a nice serial number of a bum moment?

Jordan Clarkson #100/35,000

It's a $5 moment with a normal serial. It'd rather move it for something I enjoyed more. What kind of premium do we think this could get?

Looking at the other prices in that range...maybe $60?

[orion9578]

Originally Posted by ninjacookies

Missed a TJ McConnel no-look dime by 2 hours.

Nguyen some, lose some.

I never Nguyen some. Not lately, anyways .

[b2k1121]

Originally Posted by orion9578

I never Nguyen some. Not lately, anyways .

Yeah, not much winning here either. Been in every queue and the last non guaranteed pack I got was the Seeing Stars, which was close to guaranteed.

[Brady7799]

sneaky pack drop today.

i pulled an Isaiah Joe LE /4000

any thoughts about this moment that is minted at just 4000?

[hopalong]

Originally Posted by Archangel1775

Probably depends on what's in your account Moment wise and how much you've spent. I already took out almost as much as I put in. It was only one transaction which was more than $2k. I'm in the U.S. and it was a bank wire if that might have anything to do with it otherwise.

Looks to be a $3k wire transfer limit and a $1k digital wallet limit currently

[cardfund]

Man it is depressing some of the moments they chose for S1, really detracts from being the 'first moments'.

[omega145]

Welp 0 for 4 in our last drops....that's both my wife and I so might as well say 0 for 8. Couldn't get a pack for the last cool cats drop, the last premium pack and both the last stress pack drops. We both did very well in snagging packs before then but now this is becoming just like trying to get a physical pack at Target/Walmart because of the high amount of users now in every line.

[cardfund]

A couple of thoughts;

During peak it was probably 99% speculator to 1% Collector, as time goes by I think it's fair to say that ratio has decreased, to what extent I don't know but the mechanics for flipping have changed, leading to less opportunities.

As more collectors start building their portfolio we will start to see narratives about moments build that will drive demand. If you know someone (or yourself) that has a PC, they collect virtually everything of their player. They have a story behind every single item they own and why they like certain items. I think moments accentuate this greater than what a physical card can; think nostalgia and music. For example the Luka 3 against the Clippers in playoffs, most people can probably recall what they were doing the moment that shot went in and realise that it shot meant to his legacy.

Thinking about value and demand I have the following determinants of long-term demand, this is on an overall basis, there will be moments that skew to certain categories for whatever reason;

Player Popularity: This is the ultimate determinant of demand
Artistic Appeal: The 'eye' appeal of the moment
Scarcity: Print run
Significance: Something within the moment that holds importance

Two other determinants I have left out but could probably be included are price speculation and future utility.

When applying a weighting I have it something like this;

Player Popularity: 50%
Artistic Appeal: 20%
Scarcity: 20%
Significance:10%

Looking at those categories, an example of the 'perfect' moment ~ one that would score the highest mark for each category is the Lebron 'From the Top' Dunk. Currently $250k

Player Popularity: Lebron~ 5/5
Artistic Appeal: Beautiful dunk~ 5/5
Scarcity:Only 59 made~ 5/5
Significance: Paying homage to Kobe~ 5/5

Pretty obvious I suppose but change the player while leaving all other factors constant and the value drops significantly.


Other:

~ I can see a scenario whereby user generated showcases becomes its' own set. i.e all buzzer beaters. People collect this independent of Top Shot Challenges and player popularity.

~ Moments will eventually have some form of utility attached to them, excluding any game developed. This has big upside.

With these things in mind, that's how I am building my portfolio moving forward. Will use playoffs to generate a bit of extra capital by flipping.

[NeilCO]

Originally Posted by cardfund

A couple of thoughts;

During peak it was probably 99% speculator to 1% Collector, as time goes by I think it's fair to say that ratio has decreased, to what extent I don't know but the mechanics for flipping have changed, leading to less opportunities.

As more collectors start building their portfolio we will start to see narratives about moments build that will drive demand. If you know someone (or yourself) that has a PC, they collect virtually everything of their player. They have a story behind every single item they own and why they like certain items. I think moments accentuate this greater than what a physical card can; think nostalgia and music. For example the Luka 3 against the Clippers in playoffs, most people can probably recall what they were doing the moment that shot went in and realise that it shot meant to his legacy.

Thinking about value and demand I have the following determinants of long-term demand, this is on an overall basis, there will be moments that skew to certain categories for whatever reason;

Player Popularity: This is the ultimate determinant of demand
Artistic Appeal: The 'eye' appeal of the moment
Scarcity: Print run
Significance: Something within the moment that holds importance

Two other determinants I have left out but could probably be included are price speculation and future utility.

When applying a weighting I have it something like this;

Player Popularity: 50%
Artistic Appeal: 20%
Scarcity: 20%
Significance:10%

Looking at those categories, an example of the 'perfect' moment ~ one that would score the highest mark for each category is the Lebron 'From the Top' Dunk. Currently $250k

Player Popularity: Lebron~ 5/5
Artistic Appeal: Beautiful dunk~ 5/5
Scarcity:Only 59 made~ 5/5
Significance: Paying homage to Kobe~ 5/5

Pretty obvious I suppose but change the player while leaving all other factors constant and the value drops significantly.


Other:

~ I can see a scenario whereby user generated showcases becomes its' own set. i.e all buzzer beaters. People collect this independent of Top Shot Challenges and player popularity.

~ Moments will eventually have some form of utility attached to them, excluding any game developed. This has big upside.

With these things in mind, that's how I am building my portfolio moving forward. Will use playoffs to generate a bit of extra capital by flipping.

I think this is a generally solid breakdown. The only place where I differ is that I place a much bigger emphasis on significance. I think long-term there will be 1,000 cool LeBron moments and it will be difficult to differentiate them. But there will still only be one LeBron Debut moment. I've been focusing on collecting Debut moments of players I like.

One moment I've been targeting pretty heavily is the Trae Young Debut moment. It's not just his debut, it's also the first moment ever minted on Top Shot. A little wrinkle that isn't present in physical cards, but it will always be first on the blockchain.

[The Accountant]

What do we think future pack requirements look like? Where does it end? Do I need to own a Holo Icon?

[ThePackLife]

Was just thinking of next year's rookie class and what it would be like to pull a Top 10 serial or a jersey number of a Top 5 rookie in next year's draft and I'm kind of hyped TBH. Like it or not Top Shot is here for the long run.

At this point I'm just keeping the moments I like from pack pulls and selling off the rest. Up to 20 moments in my port and plan on just adding to it organically like that moving forward. Still hyped thinking about how good next year's class is and possibly adding their moments to my collection.

[rysportguy]

Originally Posted by The Accountant

What do we think future pack requirements look like? Where does it end? Do I need to own a Holo Icon?

They won't ever do solely holo icon requirement because that would just not be enough people. But I think next legendary will require a legendary or 3 rares or 30 moments and then spending at least $500 in the marketplace. Something along those lines.

[NeilCO]

Originally Posted by rysportguy

They won't ever do solely holo icon requirement because that would just not be enough people. But I think next legendary will require a legendary or 3 rares or 30 moments and then spending at least $500 in the marketplace. Something along those lines.

This sounds about right to me. They noted in Discord that they tailored requirements for the last drop to the drop itself. They want the people eligible for a Legendary drop, for example, to be people who might actually collect Legendary moments. But I'm sure they're also balancing making it accessible to a reasonable number of people.

[CVTS33]

Originally Posted by cardfund

A couple of thoughts;

During peak it was probably 99% speculator to 1% Collector, as time goes by I think it's fair to say that ratio has decreased, to what extent I don't know but the mechanics for flipping have changed, leading to less opportunities.

This is really the big question with TS. However, to me, I haven't seen much evidence that there are any collectors to date. Regardless of the site's rhetoric, the discussions framed around TS are almost exclusively surrounding the current and future values.

I am aware, that the self styled "collector" shows up in discord or elsewhere, but their pleas are always depersonalized. Collectors do not depersonalize their language and do not speak in generalities predominantly. It's always, "I'm collecting the players I like" or "I am looking for the moments I like". The notion omits the particulars. For a collector, a collection is a very personal experience and the particulars, whether you are interested or not, are always at least a part of the discussion.

For example, someone who collects cars will not tell you they are collecting the types of cars they like, they will tell you the type of car they want to buy or that they own. That will be followed by why this item is of personal significance and not by what they think it will be to someone else. They will also have a connection to the particulars of the item and bore a great number of people with the details.

TS "collectors" only get into particulars when they are talking about what the value might be. Then all sorts of speculative factors will be discussed in detail. This is because that is all that is really important to them. Nobody talks about the context of the moment past speculating on the value, or at least if they do, the conversations are hard to find and such a small part of this that 1% seems generous. Maybe you really are a collector, and I'm not one to tell you that you can't be, but you are in really exclusive company.

I have a number of collectables. I know they have value, I have no idea what it might be currently because they only hit the market upon my death and then my son can do what he will with them. The personal significance would be easy for me to talk about and certainly more important than what I paid; which in some cases was quite a bit of money. In short, I don't care what the current market value is on these items. TS collectors are pre-occupied with the "dirty flippers".

In TS, everyone is a flipper, people just disagree on the timing of such a flip. "I'm in for the long haul" translates to, "I think I will get more money at a later date".

[The Accountant]

delete

[rysportguy]

Originally Posted by CVTS33

This is really the big question with TS. However, to me, I haven't seen much evidence that there are any collectors to date. Regardless of the site's rhetoric, the discussions framed around TS are almost exclusively surrounding the current and future values.

I am aware, that the self styled "collector" shows up in discord or elsewhere, but their pleas are always depersonalized. Collectors do not depersonalize their language and do not speak in generalities predominantly. It's always, "I'm collecting the players I like" or "I am looking for the moments I like". The notion omits the particulars. For a collector, a collection is a very personal experience and the particulars, whether you are interested or not, are always at least a part of the discussion.

For example, someone who collects cars will not tell you they are collecting the types of cars they like, they will tell you the type of car they want to buy or that they own. That will be followed by why this item is of personal significance and not by what they think it will be to someone else. They will also have a connection to the particulars of the item and bore a great number of people with the details.

TS "collectors" only get into particulars when they are talking about what the value might be. Then all sorts of speculative factors will be discussed in detail. This is because that is all that is really important to them. Nobody talks about the context of the moment past speculating on the value, or at least if they do, the conversations are hard to find and such a small part of this that 1% seems generous. Maybe you really are a collector, and I'm not one to tell you that you can't be, but you are in really exclusive company.

I have a number of collectables. I know they have value, I have no idea what it might be currently because they only hit the market upon my death and then my son can do what he will with them. The personal significance would be easy for me to talk about and certainly more important than what I paid; which in some cases was quite a bit of money. In short, I don't care what the current market value is on these items. TS collectors are pre-occupied with the "dirty flippers".

In TS, everyone is a flipper, people just disagree on the timing of such a flip. "I'm in for the long haul" translates to, "I think I will get more money at a later date".

You don't have many posts on this site so not entirely sure if you are involved in the card market but I am curious why you think cards can have legitimate collectors but moments can't. Don't you think a moment could have more sentimental value to a collector than a picture would?

[b2k1121]

Originally Posted by CVTS33

This is really the big question with TS. However, to me, I haven't seen much evidence that there are any collectors to date. Regardless of the site's rhetoric, the discussions framed around TS are almost exclusively surrounding the current and future values.

I am aware, that the self styled "collector" shows up in discord or elsewhere, but their pleas are always depersonalized. Collectors do not depersonalize their language and do not speak in generalities predominantly. It's always, "I'm collecting the players I like" or "I am looking for the moments I like". The notion omits the particulars. For a collector, a collection is a very personal experience and the particulars, whether you are interested or not, are always at least a part of the discussion.

For example, someone who collects cars will not tell you they are collecting the types of cars they like, they will tell you the type of car they want to buy or that they own. That will be followed by why this item is of personal significance and not by what they think it will be to someone else. They will also have a connection to the particulars of the item and bore a great number of people with the details.

TS "collectors" only get into particulars when they are talking about what the value might be. Then all sorts of speculative factors will be discussed in detail. This is because that is all that is really important to them. Nobody talks about the context of the moment past speculating on the value, or at least if they do, the conversations are hard to find and such a small part of this that 1% seems generous. Maybe you really are a collector, and I'm not one to tell you that you can't be, but you are in really exclusive company.

I have a number of collectables. I know they have value, I have no idea what it might be currently because they only hit the market upon my death and then my son can do what he will with them. The personal significance would be easy for me to talk about and certainly more important than what I paid; which in some cases was quite a bit of money. In short, I don't care what the current market value is on these items. TS collectors are pre-occupied with the "dirty flippers".

In TS, everyone is a flipper, people just disagree on the timing of such a flip. "I'm in for the long haul" translates to, "I think I will get more money at a later date".

This is true, but the same can be said about the physical card market. Especially the newcomers of the last couple years that have caused the surge in the hobby.

[Bruvydsb]

I am a collector, but also not ashamed to know how much my collectibles are worth.

Furthermore, I regularly sell said collectibles when I feel the value is peaking and I want to take some profit.

This goes for cardboard, comics (singles & collected editions), funko pops and now Top Shot.

I'm still a collector, but why can't I make money on what I collect?

Do I have to die with my collectibles to be a "real" collector?

I'm proud of having all my hobbies pretty much fund themselves.

Basketball cards got crazy hot, so I sold a bunch off and bought several CGC graded comics. This is the fun of all the hobbies (for me).

Not sure where I'm going with this, but I guess I'm just tired of the notion that a "collector" can't sell and make money.

Mini rant over.

[beavers]

I haven't sold anything yet. I have bought 2 packs and several moments from the marketplace totaling over $300. I now have 16 moments of things I like (Blazers and moments with badges). I didn't qualify for the last drop because I didn't have 15 moments then. If I am not allowed to purchase on the next drop I am out.

It is absurd that I would need to spend more money in the marketplace to be able to buy a pack.

[rysportguy]

Originally Posted by beavers

I haven't sold anything yet. I have bought 2 packs and several moments from the marketplace totaling over $300. I now have 16 moments of things I like (Blazers and moments with badges). I didn't qualify for the last drop because I didn't have 15 moments then. If I am not allowed to purchase on the next drop I am out.

It is absurd that I would need to spend more money in the marketplace to be able to buy a pack.

I know it is frustrating but this is a result of +EV packs. Everyone and their grandma was signed up because it was basically free money that they would then withdraw. These packs were never meant to give people free money they were meant to help collectors grow their collection.

[grade]

hope everyone did good with TS.

Now, Topps MLB NFT has the exact same feeling as TS did in Feb. Do not know what will happen in the future. But hope ToppsMLB has the same success in the next two months and reap some rewards and a small collection like TS.

If Wax does NFL. It will be crazy.