First Buzz: 2020-21 Panini Prizm basketball cards

[PSA2Pac]

Lol Prizm isnt getting anywhere near MSRP

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[brothertona]

I don't believe in this class but I've been using this dive to try and pick up Onyeka's cheap.

[codered]

Originally Posted by BRob1

you want to take a contract to sell me blasters at $35 in a month lol?


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Lol well if I could get them at mrsp I’d be opening them not selling. I’m not lining up a Walmart for cards lol a little over a month ago people thought blaster couldn’t get below $100 and here we are. I think we are mid free fall, not at the end

[codered]

Originally Posted by PSA2Pac

Lol Prizm isnt getting anywhere near MSRP

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Hobby, no never. Retail is a different story unless psa/bgs open up relatively soon, with cheap grading options

[PSA2Pac]

Originally Posted by codered

Lol well if I could get them at mrsp I’d be opening them not selling. I’m not lining up a Walmart for cards lol a little over a month ago people thought blaster couldn’t get below $100 and here we are. I think we are mid free fall, not at the end

Its following a pretty "typical" retail wax price trajectory though. Nothing new/surprising.

[KhalDrogo]

I’ve said this before, but the price of retail wax is dictated by the weak hands. With the massive hoarding by the average Joe we’ve seen over the past year and a half, more retail wax is in weak hands than ever before.

If I was holding retail 2020 Prizm BKB I would be concerned given how little of it has seemingly been released and how steep the price decline has been already.

[PSA2Pac]

.....

[benz35]

rookie class crap - this is like wax from okafor era

[BRob1]

Originally Posted by KhalDrogo

I’ve said this before, but the price of retail wax is dictated by the weak hands. With the massive hoarding by the average Joe we’ve seen over the past year and a half, more retail wax is in weak hands than ever before.

If I was holding retail 2020 Prizm BKB I would be concerned given how little of it has seemingly been released and how steep the price decline has been already.

With retail there is a typical pattern where the product has to move from the hands of the guy who finds it into the hands of the guy who wants to rip it or hold it. We always see prices bottom out while we’re deep in the product release cycle, with it rebounding after stocks dry up. You’ve got to get through that first flip cycle.


The new Target system I would argue has concentrated the product into fewer hands, where the top few percent of effective bot users control a larger share of the product. They are more into margin dollars than margin rate at that point, happy to squeeze out their profit and pay off the credit card so they can do it again on the next drop. That’s likely impacting prices negatively right now.

As mentioned above, grading, or lack of, is definitely impacting as well. If you can’t grade a base edwards or lamelo, your ability to turn a profit is compromised, also impacting the price you’ll pay to rip a box.

If you believe in the next year or so you’ll be able to grade $50-$100 cards more reasonably, then this becomes a buying opportunity if you believe in any of this years rookies. Personally i like edwards and ball more than most do. No risk to wait and see how much more of this gets stocked, but long term these are easily $100 blasters.


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[mossoholic]

Originally Posted by BRob1

With retail there is a typical pattern where the product has to move from the hands of the guy who finds it into the hands of the guy who wants to rip it or hold it. We always see prices bottom out while we’re deep in the product release cycle, with it rebounding after stocks dry up. You’ve got to get through that first flip cycle.


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This isn't always true now. See Hoops Premium and Chronicles basketball. They have never been lower than prices right now. You also now have more people holding retail wax than ever and seemingly no cheap grading plans coming from PSA. No new retail product will dry up like one used to in a year or so for now 5+ years if ever. Except for 20-21 Prizm Draft Basketball mega boxes, is there any 20-21 retail product that is more than 20% higher than it was while the product was stocking? Is there any retail product that had been out for at least 3 months since August 2020 that sells for less than it does now?

[sportsfanatic]

In this current market crash or correction (whatever term you want to use), sealed wax prices will continue to fall. Anyone holding wax, not only of Prizm basketball but any product from the past 2-3 years should be selling now while they can still make a buck

[Spacemanspif]

Originally Posted by sportsfanatic

In this current market crash or correction (whatever term you want to use), sealed wax prices will continue to fall. Anyone holding wax, not only of Prizm basketball but any product from the past 2-3 years should be selling now while they can still make a buck

naw. barely anyone held 2018 anything, or even 2019 early releases like Prizm. anything after 2019 Optic got printed to hell and large quantities were held, but everything else should be fine.

[BRob1]

Originally Posted by mossoholic

This isn't always true now. See Hoops Premium and Chronicles basketball. They have never been lower than prices right now. You also now have more people holding retail wax than ever and seemingly no cheap grading plans coming from PSA. No new retail product will dry up like one used to in a year or so for now 5+ years if ever. Except for 20-21 Prizm Draft Basketball mega boxes, is there any 20-21 retail product that is more than 20% higher than it was while the product was stocking? Is there any retail product that had been out for at least 3 months since August 2020 that sells for less than it does now?

you can’t compare prices from the pandemic peak to now and say that proves anything. The whole market has corrected 20-30%.

Prizm launched at the beginning of the dip and we’re still in the dip. price will go up once it’s done being stocked.


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[triden3012]

Originally Posted by BRob1

Current facebook prices are $75 a blaster.. prices dropped a little after the 20k unit drop last week. A lot of those boxes have been worked off but not all, and now we have another 20k box drop today. I would imagine that puts a little more downward pressure on prices next week when the boxes are in hand. The unknown is how many more boxes there are left to drop.

If you are set on buying and just trying to time the bottom we’re close. May be a bit further to drop. Prizm football got as low as $50 a blaster while it was being stocked then shot back up over $100.


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That's what I'm trying to time here is when the Prizm blasters hit rock bottom pricewise before I gobble up some. I see $70 with free shipping on Ebay, hoping it's goes just a tad lower.

[Hoopscardz83]

Originally Posted by triden3012

That's what I'm trying to time here is when the Prizm blasters hit rock bottom pricewise before I gobble up some. I see $70 with free shipping on Ebay, hoping it's goes just a tad lower.

Just make best offers too people who have that option they will bite. Also larger lots with best offers.

[PSA2Pac]

Originally Posted by mossoholic

Except for 20-21 Prizm Draft Basketball mega boxes, is there any 20-21 retail product that is more than 20% higher than it was while the product was stocking?

Outside of Prizm whats come out though? Im assuming you are talking basketball, since you said 20-21. Only thing thats really come out retail is hoops and donruss.

[Hoopscardz83]

If Target stocks another 20k next week they will drop under $70 short term. 80% if not more of the target drops are going to resellers. Also most " collectors" are selling what they get on target. Twitter people like chase breaks, card purchaser. Etc. Are selling the wax they score on Target. Everyone is flipping now guys. This hobby is one big flip.

[BRob1]

Originally Posted by triden3012

That's what I'm trying to time here is when the Prizm blasters hit rock bottom pricewise before I gobble up some. I see $70 with free shipping on Ebay, hoping it's goes just a tad lower.

I would watch the weekly target stocks to get an idea of where the bottom is. Today they put another 20k boxes into the market. When you see a week go by with no prizm dropped then ask yourself if you think the product is done. Two weeks go by you have a good idea it might be.


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[BRob1]

Originally Posted by PSA2Pac

Outside of Prizm whats come out though? Im assuming you are talking basketball, since you said 20-21. Only thing thats really come out retail is hoops and donruss.

Good point. Also hoops blasters are going for $60, we think prizm isn’t going to be a premium over that?


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[Hoopscardz83]

Originally Posted by BRob1

I would watch the weekly target stocks to get an idea of where the bottom is. Today they put another 20k boxes into the market. When you see a week go by with no prizm dropped then ask yourself if you think the product is done. Two weeks go by you have a good idea it might be.


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The way Select shows up on every Target drop. Prizm is likely there. The big hope is the mega box drop too. I think panini hates the fact we see the counts. But again they're making a crap ton of money right now. Select is on every street corner. Showing up at Goodwill from Target liquidating it. Select retail is the craziest release so far, and I think it's the trend moving forward.

[blackandgold]

Originally Posted by sportsfanatic

In this current market crash or correction (whatever term you want to use), sealed wax prices will continue to fall. Anyone holding wax, not only of Prizm basketball but any product from the past 2-3 years should be selling now while they can still make a buck

Hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha

[THE(NEXT)LEVEL]

It doesn’t matter if product dries up, if there are one billion boxes produced. Eventually it’s over saturated garbage. I remember people sitting on stashes of 1991 Stadium Club, etc thinking they would retire early....we see how that went.

[blackandgold]

Anything absolutely anything that says Prizm on it and basketball=$$$$$$$$$$$$ Even the WNBA doh!

[k13]

Originally Posted by codered

These are going to continue to drop. Retail is highly reliant on grading. Blaster have base, silvers, greens and purple waves (I know there is a parallel #/25 in blaster but can’t remember which one, I know they are impossible to hit the last few years). Base prizm has plummeted, silvers are dropping and green/purple waves have never really had a following. Add in the fact that the ability to grade Cheaply has indefinitely been put on hold and prizm retail is in a free fall. I expect boxes to get close to mrsp. They won’t get right to mrsp but low enough that flippers will see almost all their profits squeezed out

Let me know when you buy prizm for $50 cad...

[codered]

Originally Posted by k13

Let me know when you buy prizm for $50 cad...

We aren’t that far off my friend. I still refuse to pay above mrsp for retail but my buddy recently picked up a 3 box lot of blasters for $200 cdn. Cash and locally. People buying to flip want flip quickly to get the money back. Weak hands as khal mentioned.