Future of Grading - Harder to get a PSA 10 ?

sportsguyred · 08-07-2021, 03:03 PM

Sounds like we will see even more technology and AI for grading at PSA over the next 1-2 years.

I think it will be harder to get a "PSA 10" in the future, so do you think we are better off getting cards graded now rather than in 2-3 years ?

clocsta2323 · 08-07-2021, 03:42 PM

BOOOO

ThoseBackPages · 08-07-2021, 03:52 PM

GOOD!

CheapThief · 08-07-2021, 03:58 PM

Maybe, though I can't think of a single card that would be worth grading right now that you'd hold off on grading until 2023.

Knockdowns · 08-08-2021, 08:09 AM

If it truly does become harder to get a PSA 10 and assuming that the market in general believes / sees this to be the case, then it's interesting to consider whether there will be some sort of market devaluation of pre-AI PSA 10s relative to the post-AI PSA 10s, for cards manufactured before the changeover.

There would have to be some way of knowing when a card was slabbed for this to happen, not sure if there is a way to do that unless they change the slabs or labels somehow, or post additional data in the cert lookups.

Of course it seems that many people seem to think it's already harder to get a PSA 10 than it used to be. I have no opinion on that, don't have much experience in graded cards myself.

ChaseUA · 08-08-2021, 08:18 AM

Local shop just got a modern submission back that was sent in in august and received 85 of
110 cards back as 10’s. One submitter went 20 for 20.

I don’t think it’s harder, people just got greedy and started sending in more of their borderline cards with the mindset of “I see a flaw but I’ve seen 10’s with the same issue so it should gem.” That combined with new inexperienced submitters have made the gem rates decrease overall, but I don’t think its a result of some company change in philosophy or standards.

The_Reverend · 08-08-2021, 08:48 AM

I think inexperienced graders play a role and people became lax on what they sent. There are millions of ungraded cards, and likely lots of ultra modern. I think the pop report will increase tremendously on ultra modern, but hard to grade cards will have minimal increases. Tracking some early Jordan, LBJ, Kobe, Brady, Trout, Griffey cards would bear this out. Condition sensitive cards will always have a premium and lower pop report then ultra modern.

SupermanBrandon · 08-08-2021, 08:54 AM

I think 2 things are in play…

1. New submitters. This past summer/fall people were ripping blasters and sending in every single card from the box. And from the binders of their childhood. Let that sink in. Just take a scroll around MySlabs. Look at the PSA 8s-9s.

2. New graders. We all know the story here.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Knockdowns · 08-08-2021, 09:52 AM

Maybe the poll should have an option for those whose opinion is "no change".

brauncj1 · 08-08-2021, 10:02 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Knockdowns

Maybe the poll should have an option for those whose opinion is "no change".

I sent in 21 cards for the first time back in March and included cards that I new wouldn’t gem because I wanted to see how well I was at matching the grading of PSA. Best case scenario is I hit a ~50% gem rate and that’s only if all the cards I think gems actually grade 10s. I figure I’ll probably be at somewhere around 25% gem rate.

Cards and 401K · 08-16-2021, 03:15 PM

we need to Demand Topps upgrades printing and cutting machines standards to the 21st century,
and add 10% more employees to QA. LOL

CardWizard · 08-16-2021, 05:21 PM

Are we just assuming the AI would catch things that humans will miss? Because I would assume they would adjust the AI grading standards to allow enough imperfections that wouldn't affect the gem rate that significantly.

But if we're assuming human graders are missing a lot of things that AI will catch, then yeah gem rate would decline.

As far as AI vs Pre-AI prices I could see a small difference between the two emerging. Kind of like how the older labels don't always fetch the same premium on older cards like the new labels do.

I was shopping for a Bonds RC PSA 10, most are in the old PSA slabs and from what I saw I don't think a lot of them would gem if sent in today.

Splish · 08-17-2021, 07:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CheapThief

Maybe, though I can't think of a single card that would be worth grading right now that you'd hold off on grading until 2023.

This!

View Poll Results: Will it be harder to get a PSA 10 grade in 3 years versus now ?
Yes, Harder to get PSA 10 grade in the future	62	74.70%
No, Easier to get PSA 10 grade in the future	10	12.05%
No opinion	11	13.25%
Voters: 83. You may not vote on this poll

08-07-2021, 03:03 PM	#1
sportsguyred Banned Join Date: Mar 2021 Posts: 111	Future of Grading - Harder to get a PSA 10 ? Sounds like we will see even more technology and AI for grading at PSA over the next 1-2 years. I think it will be harder to get a "PSA 10" in the future, so do you think we are better off getting cards graded now rather than in 2-3 years ?

08-07-2021, 03:52 PM	#3
ThoseBackPages Member Join Date: Feb 2010 Location: Long Island Posts: 90,275 ThoseBackPages	GOOD! __________________ Pumpers Paradise #YouCryIBuy Four things that we cannot change each others minds about: Politics, Religion, Third Party Grading, and 2021 Bowman's Best Rookie Cards

08-07-2021, 03:42 PM	#2
clocsta2323 Member Join Date: Feb 2010 Location: D.C. Posts: 6,865	BOOOO

08-07-2021, 03:58 PM	#4
CheapThief Member Join Date: Jan 2021 Location: Pocket jacks gone horribly wrong. Posts: 487	Maybe, though I can't think of a single card that would be worth grading right now that you'd hold off on grading until 2023.

08-08-2021, 08:09 AM	#5
Knockdowns Member Join Date: Jul 2021 Posts: 7	If it truly does become harder to get a PSA 10 and assuming that the market in general believes / sees this to be the case, then it's interesting to consider whether there will be some sort of market devaluation of pre-AI PSA 10s relative to the post-AI PSA 10s, for cards manufactured before the changeover. There would have to be some way of knowing when a card was slabbed for this to happen, not sure if there is a way to do that unless they change the slabs or labels somehow, or post additional data in the cert lookups. Of course it seems that many people seem to think it's already harder to get a PSA 10 than it used to be. I have no opinion on that, don't have much experience in graded cards myself.

08-08-2021, 08:18 AM	#6
ChaseUA Member Join Date: Oct 2010 Posts: 777	Local shop just got a modern submission back that was sent in in august and received 85 of 110 cards back as 10’s. One submitter went 20 for 20. I don’t think it’s harder, people just got greedy and started sending in more of their borderline cards with the mindset of “I see a flaw but I’ve seen 10’s with the same issue so it should gem.” That combined with new inexperienced submitters have made the gem rates decrease overall, but I don’t think its a result of some company change in philosophy or standards.

08-08-2021, 08:48 AM	#7
The_Reverend Member Join Date: Jul 2012 Location: Texas Posts: 15,373 islubi	I think inexperienced graders play a role and people became lax on what they sent. There are millions of ungraded cards, and likely lots of ultra modern. I think the pop report will increase tremendously on ultra modern, but hard to grade cards will have minimal increases. Tracking some early Jordan, LBJ, Kobe, Brady, Trout, Griffey cards would bear this out. Condition sensitive cards will always have a premium and lower pop report then ultra modern.

08-08-2021, 08:54 AM	#8
SupermanBrandon Banned Join Date: Dec 2018 Location: TN Posts: 15,843	I think 2 things are in play… 1. New submitters. This past summer/fall people were ripping blasters and sending in every single card from the box. And from the binders of their childhood. Let that sink in. Just take a scroll around MySlabs. Look at the PSA 8s-9s. 2. New graders. We all know the story here. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

08-08-2021, 09:52 AM	#9
Knockdowns Member Join Date: Jul 2021 Posts: 7	Maybe the poll should have an option for those whose opinion is "no change".

08-16-2021, 03:15 PM	#11
Cards and 401K Member Join Date: Jul 2019 Location: DFW Texas Posts: 3,566	we need to Demand Topps upgrades printing and cutting machines standards to the 21st century, and add 10% more employees to QA. LOL

08-16-2021, 05:21 PM	#12
CardWizard Member Join Date: Jun 2020 Posts: 181 thecardwizard thecardwizard	Are we just assuming the AI would catch things that humans will miss? Because I would assume they would adjust the AI grading standards to allow enough imperfections that wouldn't affect the gem rate that significantly. But if we're assuming human graders are missing a lot of things that AI will catch, then yeah gem rate would decline. As far as AI vs Pre-AI prices I could see a small difference between the two emerging. Kind of like how the older labels don't always fetch the same premium on older cards like the new labels do. I was shopping for a Bonds RC PSA 10, most are in the old PSA slabs and from what I saw I don't think a lot of them would gem if sent in today.