Fernando Tatis Jr

[HarryLime]

Originally Posted by hermanotarjeta

From my perspective, that 2x has already happened. Perhaps your argument is for a 4x? Since the beginning of the season after an mvp caliber year, his prices are about .75x.

So what hype is going to make him 4x again, at today’s prices? Inflation? A trade to the Yankees?

I was using X (as well as Y & Z) in an algebraic sense, not a multiplication sense. The letters are meant to represent whatever statistics or accomplishments you like.

Arthur

[Akphillips86]

Originally Posted by hermanotarjeta

From my perspective, that 2x has already happened. Perhaps your argument is for a 4x? Since the beginning of the season after an mvp caliber year, his prices are about .75x.

So what hype is going to make him 4x again, at today’s prices? Inflation? A trade to the Yankees?

Tatis doesn’t need to double or quadruple though. I don’t think anyone here is saying that’s going to happen anytime soon, and very few people here just bought in on him yesterday. Every year from here on out that he stays healthy and keeps producing, his cards will climb. If he doesn’t, his cards will stagnate or drop.

Sets also matter. High population graded base has slowed across the board, whereas other sets are gaining appreciation and value. For example, I think many incorrectly use the 410 to gauge his entire market just because it’s convenient. It’s a bit more nuanced than just looking at his flagship PSA 10.

It’s not going to be an overnight phenomenon at this point because Tatis isn’t exactly flying under anyone’s radar. Tatis is a buy and hold, not a buy and flip.


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[NYRE2PECT]

Arthur got me started and now I am on the path to the full Monty:



And, next frame project has been determined (not to scale):




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[SupermanBrandon]

Originally Posted by HarryLime

I disagree. Baseball card values don't move based on what you're doing or what you just did, they move on what collectors' imaginations can extrapolate for the future. Values increase based on potential.

Winning an MVP, hitting a GW homer in the playoffs, winning a World Series, none of those would result in significant price increases in the immediate aftermath.

What happens is when, later on, collectors start firing up their imaginations and think "He's already done X, Y, and Z at the age of whatever, what if he comes out even better next season and repeats and then we're talking about 2 X, 2 Y, and 2 Z!"

Create thread. Posters pour gasoline on the fire. Prices shoot up in the offseason.

When a large enough group of collectors can agree that a specific player is going to have a future performance that is excellent, that will increase values much more than the player actually accomplishing the imagined performance.

Arthur

I remember when Soto and the Nationals were winning the WS, Soto was ripping the ball and potentially headed to a WS ring & WS mvp. His prices barely moved, if at all! A deep run, WS title and hitting the cover off the ball in key moments did almost nothing in that moment, for his cards.


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[cloakroom]

Originally Posted by HarryLime

I disagree. Baseball card values don't move based on what you're doing or what you just did, they move on what collectors' imaginations can extrapolate for the future. Values increase based on potential.

Winning an MVP, hitting a GW homer in the playoffs, winning a World Series, none of those would result in significant price increases in the immediate aftermath.

What happens is when, later on, collectors start firing up their imaginations and think "He's already done X, Y, and Z at the age of whatever, what if he comes out even better next season and repeats and then we're talking about 2 X, 2 Y, and 2 Z!"

Create thread. Posters pour gasoline on the fire. Prices shoot up in the offseason.

When a large enough group of collectors can agree that a specific player is going to have a future performance that is excellent, that will increase values much more than the player actually accomplishing the imagined performance.

Arthur

it's definitely both, or a combination of the two. arozarena is an easy counterpoint, especially if we're talking playoff performance based movements.

[hermanotarjeta]

Originally Posted by HarryLime

I disagree. Baseball card values don't move based on what you're doing or what you just did, they move on what collectors' imaginations can extrapolate for the future. Values increase based on potential.

Winning an MVP, hitting a GW homer in the playoffs, winning a World Series, none of those would result in significant price increases in the immediate aftermath.

What happens is when, later on, collectors start firing up their imaginations and think "He's already done X, Y, and Z at the age of whatever, what if he comes out even better next season and repeats and then we're talking about 2 X, 2 Y, and 2 Z!"

Create thread. Posters pour gasoline on the fire. Prices shoot up in the offseason.

When a large enough group of collectors can agree that a specific player is going to have a future performance that is excellent, that will increase values much more than the player actually accomplishing the imagined performance.

Arthur

So what is it going to take to get his psa 10 2016 bowman chrome auto to go from $10,000 to $20,000? More exuberant pumping and hyping? Where is the extra fuel going to come from for the fire?

[Akphillips86]

Originally Posted by hermanotarjeta

So what is it going to take to get his psa 10 2016 bowman chrome auto to go from $10,000 to $20,000? More exuberant pumping and hyping? Where is the extra fuel going to come from for the fire?

That would take years of continued elite performance and health, not pumping and hyping. Again, there’s not going to be seismic overnight shifts in his market right now, and I don’t think anyone is predicting a massive bump for Tatis specifically right now. The massive leap has largely already happened. It’s going to be a steady climb from here on out with a little bump if he snags the MVP.

He’s a buy and hold, not a buy and flip at this point.


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[jhssketchcards]

Originally Posted by HarryLime

I disagree. Baseball card values don't move based on what you're doing or what you just did, they move on what collectors' imaginations can extrapolate for the future. Values increase based on potential.

Winning an MVP, hitting a GW homer in the playoffs, winning a World Series, none of those would result in significant price increases in the immediate aftermath.

What happens is when, later on, collectors start firing up their imaginations and think "He's already done X, Y, and Z at the age of whatever, what if he comes out even better next season and repeats and then we're talking about 2 X, 2 Y, and 2 Z!"

Create thread. Posters pour gasoline on the fire. Prices shoot up in the offseason.

When a large enough group of collectors can agree that a specific player is going to have a future performance that is excellent, that will increase values much more than the player actually accomplishing the imagined performance.

Arthur

Randy Arozarena last year prices prove “what you are doing now” changes prices. His performance in the playoffs increased his prices rapidly


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[hermanotarjeta]

Originally Posted by Akphillips86

That would take years of continued elite performance and health, not pumping and hyping. Again, there’s not going to be seismic overnight shifts in his market right now, and I don’t think anyone is predicting a massive bump for Tatis specifically right now. The massive leap has largely already happened. It’s going to be a steady climb from here on out with a little bump if he snags the MVP.

He’s a buy and hold, not a buy and flip at this point.


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But heroic playoff performances do play a role in building a legacy and help encourage investors to have more confidence in paying higher prices for his cards. Annual .300, 40 hr has already been priced in.

Aren’t his cards at risk for dropping in price if he can’t maintain that pace - I mean those are pressure packed expectations.

[SupermanBrandon]

Originally Posted by jhssketchcards

Randy Arozarena last year prices prove “what you are doing now” changes prices. His performance in the playoffs increased his prices rapidly


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This is a poor example. His cards were also pennies on the dollar in comparison and during the biggest boom the hobby has EVER seen. Soto’s ‘19 WS performance and ring capture…barely did anything for his card prices.


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[jhssketchcards]

Originally Posted by SupermanBrandon

This is a poor example. His cards were also pennies on the dollar in comparison and during the biggest boom the hobby has EVER seen. Soto’s ‘19 WS performance and ring capture…barely did anything for his card prices.


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Ok so then does that mean if Tatis wins MVP it shouldn’t affect his card prices?


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[HarryLime]

Originally Posted by jhssketchcards

Ok so then does that mean if Tatis wins MVP it shouldn’t affect his card prices?


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Not until the offseason, when hobbyists begin looking forward to 2022.

Arthur

[KhalDrogo]

MVP for Tatis is already baked in. If he doesn’t win it, expect prices to fall.

[boston12]

Well. Pulled the trigger on a trade at a show today. Part of my haul from that deal.

[hammertime]

I know it's not a big card but a PSA 9 SC RC just sold on ebay for $21.50. That's ridiculous.

[pewe]

Originally Posted by hammertime

I know it's not a big card but a PSA 9 SC RC just sold on ebay for $21.50. That's ridiculous.

Too cheap? Too expensive? What makes it “ridiculous”?


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[brios8]

Originally Posted by KhalDrogo

MVP for Tatis is already baked in. If he doesn’t win it, expect prices to fall.

Could be true.. though they should go up, as he never saw a bump in prices all season long and he has never had the MVP locked in

Imagine what he could do next season if completely healthy after winning MVP playing only 4 months and never really at 100%


MVP + HYPE I would think should translate to a nice bump- but who knows..

[Hellcat]

Originally Posted by boston12

Well. Pulled the trigger on a trade at a show today. Part of my haul from that deal.

Awesome card man. I have 2 1st Bowman waiting to get graded but not auto.

[ThoseBackPages]

Originally Posted by boston12

Well. Pulled the trigger on a trade at a show today. Part of my haul from that deal.

what was the trade?

[boston12]

Originally Posted by ThoseBackPages

what was the trade?

Big trade. Involved A Brady Metal rookie (9.5 BGS) and four Gronk Topps Chrome rookies (Gold, Blue, Purple, Orange all BGS 9.5). In return I got the Tatis, Haaland Sapphire Rookie BGS 9.5 and cash. Biggest trade I’ve been a part of.

[jasonm2121]

Tatis!!!!

[marl1220]

Originally Posted by KhalDrogo

MVP for Tatis is already baked in. If he doesn’t win it, expect prices to fall.

I love watching him but he seems to be playing himself out of the MVP.
Slumping right now, when the rest of the team isn't playing well either, is really bad timing for his MVP prospects. Hopefully he picks it up and leads the Padres to the post season.

[HarryLime]

If anyone is a serious buyer for one of these, shoot me a message. I'm nowhere near eBay.



Arthur

[NYRE2PECT]

Originally Posted by marl1220

I love watching him but he seems to be playing himself out of the MVP.
Slumping right now, when the rest of the team isn't playing well either, is really bad timing for his MVP prospects. Hopefully he picks it up and leads the Padres to the post season.

Who is playing well?

Ohtani, Vladdy, Tatis, are all meh. And have been for a month.

[BBases31]

Originally Posted by HarryLime

If anyone is a serious buyer for one of these, shoot me a message. I'm nowhere near eBay.

Nowhere near Ebay as in way, way above? A PSA 9 sold for $320 on June 20th and there is a raw one ending in 6 hours at $255. You're asking 4 grand